Housing inventory crisis?

housing inventory

The low housing inventory crisis has plagued the housing market for about six years.  Low inventory has frustrated home buyers and all but eliminated move up home buyers.  The ongoing housing inventory crisis is an obstacle to a balanced housing market.

As a result of the ongoing housing inventory crisis, existing home sales may see a decline in the next few months, when spring sales should be strong.  Seasonal increases are a given, as National Association of Realtors (nar.realtor) data indicated a 3.0 percent month-over-month increase for February existing home sales and a 3.1 percent month-over-month increase in the Pending Home Sale Index (the Pending Home Sales Index is a forward-looking dataset indicating the number of homes that are under contract).  However, February sales only increased 1.1 percent from last year.  But the tell of slowing activity is the 4.1 percent decrease in pending home sales from last year.

Most experts blame the sluggish home sale activity on low housing inventory.  NAR’s reporting that February’s seasonal month-over-month 4.6 percent increase of total housing inventory is expected.  However, the 8.1 percent decrease in housing inventory compared to last year is worrisome.

The Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors (gcaar.com) March 2018 data for single family home sales in Montgomery County indicated a decline in activity across the board.  Listings decreased 11.1 percent month-over-month and 7.8 from last year.  Contracts decreased 6.6 percent month-over-month and 6.9 percent from last year.  While closings only decreased 3.8 percent month-over-month, there was a 7.8 percent decrease from last year.

Another sign that that the housing market is in crisis is last week’s announcement from Zillow.  If you have not yet heard, Zillow is expanding their Instant Offer program and plans to jump into the housing market (zillow.com).  They plan to fix and flip homes by making cash offers and buying houses like other investors who participate in their IO program. The homes will be listed for sale with real estate agents who subscribe to Zillow’s Premier Agent program, as well as select partner brokers.

Zillow Chief Marketing Officer Jeremy Wacksman stated,

“Even in today’s hot market, many sellers are stressed and searching for a more seamless way to sell their homes…They want help, and while most prefer to sell their home on the open market with an agent, some value convenience and time over price. This expansion of Instant Offers, and Zillow’s entrance into the marketplace, will help us better serve both types of consumers as well as provide an opportunity for Premier Agents to connect with sellers. This is expected to be a vibrant line of business for us and for our partners in the real estate industry, while providing homeowners with more choices and information.”

The venture into flipping is a huge deviation for the internet juggernaut, whose revenue is mostly generated by selling advertising and leads to real estate agents and loan officers.  The reaction in the industry is mixed, however Zillow’s stock dropped 7 percent the day after the announcement.  Critics, including experienced real estate investors, scoffed at Zillow’s ambitious plan to flip a house within ninety days.

In a market where home owners are reluctant to sell, and frustrated home buyers are dropping out, Zillow needs to find ways to increase lead generation to grow subscribers (see why tech models looking for alternate revenue).

While being ridiculed by many, Zillow’s flipping plan may be a brilliant strategy to generate home seller leads for agents.  Zillow acknowledges in their press release that “the vast majority of sellers who requested an Instant Offer ended up selling their home with an agent, making Instant Offers an excellent source of seller leads for Premier Agents and brokerage partners.”  If Zillow’s plan works, it could also grease the wheels of the housing market by turning reluctant home owners into sellers.

As a home seller, the home sale inventory shortage limits your competition.  But be aware that it’s not entirely a seller’s market.  Your home’s condition can significantly lower the sales price, or even prevent a sale.  Serious consideration should also be given to your listing price.  Additionally, you should focus your attention to preparing your home to show to home buyers.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2018

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Interest rate increase – Don’t panic

interest rate increase
45 years of mortgage interest rates

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to raise the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the interest rate that is charged to banks for borrowing overnight funds to maintain the required target funds. Although the Fed interest rate increase means that a banks’ business is getting more expensive, it doesn’t necessarily mean that mortgage interest rates increase in kind.

If mortgage rates are not always affected by the Fed’s interest rate increase, then what is?

Katherine Reynolds Lewis pointed out that the FOMC’s interest rate hike indirectly influences jobs, wages, prices of the things we buy, and other items (7 ways the Fed’s decisions on interest rates affect you; bankrate.com; March 20, 2018). She states, “Sometimes mortgage rates go up when the Fed increases short-term rates, as the central bank’s action sets the tone for most other interest rates. But sometimes mortgage rates fall after the Fed raises the federal funds rate.” An example of this is the seventeen rate increases during 2004-2005 when mortgage interest rates initially dropped, then slightly increased a year later. And most recently, the three Fed rate increases during 2017 when mortgage interest rates remained stable.

The reason why a FOMC interest rate increase doesn’t always affect mortgage interest rates is because mortgage interest rates are tied to the bond market. The bond market is typically a bellwether of the economy. It is highly likely that the bond market baked in last week’s Fed’s rate increase prior to the FOMC announcement. Bond yields have already been increasing due to an improving economy, which pushed mortgage rates higher in recent weeks.

In fact, the Freddie Mac Press release the day after the Fed’s announcement indicated that mortgage rates increased one basis point (freddiemac.com; March 22, 2018):

“The Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point puts the federal funds rate at its highest level since 2008. The decision, while widely expected, sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury soaring. Following Treasurys (sic), mortgage rates shrugged off last week’s drop and continued their upward march. The U.S. weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 1 basis point to 4.45 percent in this week’s survey.”

Immediately following the Fed’s interest rate increase, NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, statedWe are in the middle innings of monetary policy normalization (nar.realtor, March 21, 2018).” Yun believes that the labor market is pushing the Fed to act to stave off inflation. He stated that consumers should expect more rate increases throughout 2018. However, he believes that increased new construction can belay future Fed rate increases:

“Housing costs are also rising solidly and contributing to faster inflation. The one thing that could slow the pace of rate increases would be to tame housing costs through an increased supply of new homes. Not only will more home construction lead to a slower pace of rate hikes, it will also lead to faster economic growth. Let’s put greater focus on boosting home construction.”

Yun’s call to home builders to increase housing stock is preaching to the choir. The housing market’s tight sale inventory should already be spurring home builders to crank out new homes. But there are challenges. The latest new construction statistics released by the US Census (census.gov) indicated that building permits issued during February were 5.7 percent lower than January’s permits, but 6.5 percent higher than last February.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2018

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2018/03/29/interest-rate-increase-dont-panic/

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Home buyer savings account?

Maryland first-time home buyers may soon have another program to help them buy a home.  Two related bills are making their way through the Maryland General Assembly to create a first-time home buyer savings account. If enacted, Maryland would join a handful of other states that have already enacted such programs to incentivize home buying.

The bills are an effort to address the lack of first-time home buyer participation in the housing market. The lack of first-time home buyer participation has received a lot of attention since the Great Recession. Not just because of the rising costs of buying a home, but also because of the lack of home buyer savings. The lack of down payment was identified by the National Association of Realtors as one of the issues barring first-time home buyers from entering the housing market. The October 18th 2016 NAR news release (Five Notable Nuggets from NAR’s Home Buyer and Sellers Survey’s 35-Year History; realtor.org) also cited underemployment, student debt, and delayed family formation.

The idea of a home buyer savings account is not new. It was first conceived by Montana in the 1990’s as an incentive for home buyers to save money for down payment and closing costs. Virginia was the second state to enact a similar program in 2014. Several other states have since enacted similar plans, while others (including Maryland) have proposed such plans in their respective state legislatures.

The increased attention to first-time home buyer savings account during 2017 has made it a hot topic. While states are looking to provide state tax breaks for first-time home buyers, Rep. Mike Coffman of Colorado wants to provide federal tax incentives to first-time home buyers for saving down payment and closing costs. H.R.2802 First-Time Homebuyer Savings Account Act of 2017 was introduced in Congress last June by Rep. Mike Coffman of Colorado, and co-sponsored by Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney and Rep. Barbara Comstock. The bill has yet to make it out of the House Ways and Means Committee.

Rep Coffman stated in a press release:

The American dream of homeownership is getting harder and harder to attain for those starting out on their own these days, especially Millennials, because of the challenges involved in saving up for the down payment…The First-Time Homebuyer Savings Account Act  is a straightforward and bipartisan solution to this problem. If we can help Millennials attain homeownership, this would not only be a wise financial move for them, but would have broader positive financial impact for our economy as a whole

Maryland’s proposed first-time home buyer savings plan, introduced by HB0463 and SB0972, is currently being debated in the Maryland General Assembly. If enacted as introduced, the legislation would allow $50,000 to be deposited “state tax free” into an account for the purpose of buying a home in Maryland by a first-time home buyer. Any interest earned up to $150,000 would also be state tax free, as long as the interest is also used in said purchase. However, if the funds and interest are used for any other purpose, the holder of the account would be subject to state tax and penalties.

Would a first-time home buyer savings account stimulate interest in the housing market?

Lisa Prevost, writing for the New York Times, brought attention to Montana’s struggle to get first-time home buyers to participate in their savings plan (Tax Free Accounts for Homes: nytimes.com; August 8, 2013). At the time of Prevost’s article, the Montana Department of Revenue reported that “…no more than 225 people, and as few as 125, have participated annually since the program’s inception. Their annual deposits have averaged around $400,000.” Edmund Caplis, director of tax policy and research for Montana’s Department of Revenue, was quoted in the article as saying, “What you’ve got to understand is, this is people trying to get into their first home. For most working families, trying to pull together an extra buck is a stretch.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2018

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Mortgage lender shell game

mortgage lender
How to choose a mortgage lender (infographic from consumerfinance.gov)

Realtors and other real estate professionals eagerly look forward to the annual Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers.  The Profile, published by the National Association of Realtors, provides insight into the preferences and decisions of home buyers and sellers. After thirty-five years of publication, the Profile has become somewhat of an important contribution to housing trends and economics.  But did you know that the mortgage lender and the mortgage industry has a survey of their own?

The National Mortgage Database (NMDB) is a multiyear project conducted by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (fhfa.gov) and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (consumerfinance.gov).  The NMDB project incorporates two consumer surveys, the National Survey of Mortgage Originations and the American Survey of Mortgage Borrowers.  The NMDB is meant to provide statutory guidance and lending policy direction.  The database has yielded interesting data about how and why borrowers choose their mortgage lender, as well as their experiences and interactions during the mortgage process.

The NMDB has produced a colossal amount of data across many aspects of the consumer-mortgage lender relationship.  The preliminary analysis indicated that consumers don’t really shop for a lender.  Many home buyers use the mortgage lender recommended by their agents and others.  Most notable is that about half of the home buyers surveyed only considered one mortgage lender.  Not a surprise is that the small percentage of home buyers who apply to more than one lender are typically motivated by better terms (such as interest rate).

The mortgage lender is an important aspect of the home buying process.  Unfortunately, the NMDB suggests that home buyers are not doing their homework, and possibly choosing their mortgage lenders for the wrong reasons.  The mortgage process is an intricate dance between the buyer, the loan officer/processor and the underwriter.  The mortgage lender can either provide a smooth and “stress free” closing, or a bumpy process that can cause anxiety and delays.

When you’re buying a home, “time is of the essence” (it states that on the first paragraph of your contract).  Choosing the wrong lender can cause delays and potentially cost you money.  Issues can occur with any mortgage lender at any time during the mortgage process.  Problems can sometimes stem from the inexperience of the loan officer/processor, who does a poor job communicating what is needed from you.  More often, issues arise during the underwriting process because of a slow turnaround time.

Believe it or not, many mortgage lenders have their loan officers, processors, and underwriters separated in different offices.  Sometimes the different offices are located in different cities, which can add time to the process.  Sometimes. lenders have their processing and underwriting all in the same office, which helps facilitate communication and a loan approval.

As a home buyer, RESPA gives you the right to choose your mortgage lender.  The process of choosing the best lender for you should not be much different than choosing your Realtor.  Ask your agent and others whom you respect for referrals.  Do your homework and consider at least three of the referrals, if not more.

In addition to comparing interest rates, compare the lender fees.  Lender fees can vary and can add unnecessary cost to your closing.  Since you will be communicating with the loan officer and processor a great deal through the home buying process, talk to them to get a feel for how they interact with you.  Besides to asking about their company, ask the loan officer about their background and experience.  Find out how their underwriter operates and ask about the underwriting turnaround time.  And make sure the lender is licensed.  You can check a lender’s licensing by checking with the consumer portal of the Nationwide Multistate Licensing System  (also known also known as the Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System or the NMLS).

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2017/12/15/mortgage-lender-shell-game/

Copyright© Dan Krell
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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

New homes allure is neurological

Last week I mentioned that new home sales jumped 18.7 percent year-over-year, which is a ten-year high.  It should come as no surprise that new homes are selling like hotcakes.  After all, existing home inventory has been and remains historically low, which doesn’t give many options to home buyers.  But there are other reasons for the allure of new construction.  Some of the home buyers’ motives are apparent and some are not so obvious.

The idea of buying new construction goes beyond the “new home feel.”  Buyers of new homes are attracted to modern designs and trends that are incorporated into new houses.  New home construction takes advantage of modern building techniques and materials that allow for the open floor-plan concept that many home buyers prefer.  Many of the materials used in new construction are “engineered” for efficiency and longevity.

Buyers of new homes like the feeling that there will be minimal maintenance for the first year.  Everything is brand new and there is sense of confidence that the home’s systems won’t need major repairs or replacement.  Being the first owner of a home also gives assurance that they won’t have to deal with the poor maintenance habits of the previous owner.  This is a plus for home buyers who don’t have a lot of financial reserves to address home maintenance emergencies.  Instead, they can begin to save and budget for future repairs and replacements that should be years down the road.

New home builders take advantage of current trends in green building practices.  Many new home builders tout their LEED certification, demonstrating their commitment to energy efficiency and sustainable resources.  Green building practices are not only used when the home is built, but is actually built into the design.  Home owners seeking LEED certified builders believe they will have a smaller impact on the environment and save money on energy costs.

A new trend that buyers are pursuing is the “healthy home.”  The healthy home concept emphasizes the quality of the air inside the home.  Home buyers are becoming aware of the physical and environmental benefits of good indoor air quality, which can improve their emotional well-being and reduce the potential for respiratory distress.

But there is another reason why home buyers are attracted to new homes, and it lies within the brain.  Research has demonstrated time and again that consumers respond to novelty.  This means that home buyers have a tendency to want “new.”  This can be interpreted into making an old home new by renovating a kitchen, bathroom, etc.  Or it can mean buying a newly built home.

The novelty seeking behavior of the home buyer isn’t just a choice, as some may argue, it’s neurological.  Basically, the desire for a new home lies within the brain.  A study conducted by Nico Bunzeck and Emrah Düzel (Absolute Coding of Stimulus Novelty in the Human Substantia Nigra/VTA; 2006; Neuron 51, 369-379) demonstrated that the hippocampal region of the brain responds to novel (new) stimuli.  The hippocampal region is part of the limbic system, which is noted for being responsible for memory and emotions.  It has also been associated with motivation.

The study also discusses the idea that novelty seeking behavior isn’t just emotional, but it is also rewarding.  This means that there is a behavioral loop for seeking new things, including buying a new home.

Home sellers need to take note of these findings.  Translating this study to home buyers may mean that a home’s feeling of “newness” is important, regardless if it’s construction, renovation, or even how the home is decorated.  Understanding what attracts and motivates home buyers can be the tipping point to get a home sold.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2017/12/08/new-homes-allure-neurological/

by Dan Krell
Copyright©2017

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.