How the Fed delays the next foreclosure wave


by Dan Krell © 2009

On Wednesday, the Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged (http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20091216a.htm). The rationale provided was that although the economy as a whole shows signs of recovery, it continues to be fragile. The OMC cited signs of a recovery as the “abating” unemployment, expanding household spending, and a stabilizing real estate market. The economy continues to be fragile due to tight credit, lower household wealth, and the reluctance for business to hire new employees.

Although there is no direct relationship between the Fed’s key interest rate and mortgage interest rates, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee does affect investor behavior; a majority of mortgage interest rates are directly related to bond yields that are traded in bond markets around the world.

Since adjustable mortgages have historically been more sensitive to any Fed rate adjustment (up or down) due to the nature of its short term vulnerability, many homeowners with adjustable rates (that are expected to reset in the next several months) are probably unaware that they may have dodged a bullet (in the form of possible negligible rate adjustments).

If you recall, many homeowners in 2006 and 2007 purchased homes with adjustable rate mortgages that had teaser rates as low as 1%. Many of these homeowners may not have been able to afford the homes if they were qualified at the higher fixed rate mortgage. The anticipated foreclosure wave is to include many of these homeowners who cannot afford the higher mortgage payments when rates reset at a higher interest rate. However as interest rates continue to stay relatively low; the anticipated foreclosure wave continues to be delayed as adjustable mortgages resets stay lower than anticipate.

Because many adjustable rate mortgages are due to reset this coming year, financial experts expected the next foreclosure wave to peak between 2010 and 2012. The Fed’s continued monetary policy to maintain the federal funds rate between 0 and ¼ percent as well as continued purchases of mortgage backed securities (albeit at a continued slower pace) will most likely have the indirect effect of abating another wave of foreclosures.

It is unclear what message would be sent if the Fed took another tack on monetary policy; however one could speculate that it may have signaled the beginning of the second foreclosure wave and possibly the beginning of the double dip recession.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice.

House Flipping makes a comeback

by Dan Krell © 2009

Short sales? Foreclosures? Fugetaboutit! House flipping is the new real estate buzz!

Flipping homes is an investor technique used to quickly sell a home, sometimes rehabilitating the home to current code and standards. Flipping is more prevalent in re-emerging markets (sometimes associated with recessions) because of the real estate investors’ ability to buy homes at wholesale and sell at retail prices. Flipping was also pervasive during the housing boom earlier this decade, when real estate speculators took advantage of the rapidly appreciating market by quickly re-selling homes they purchased almost as soon as they bought them.

Home flipping has been a viable technique included in many real estate investors’ business models. Flipping is not only a means for investors to make money, it has often been a part of neighborhood revitalization. Run down homes, that are often overlooked by home buyers, are made more appealing by modernizing and renovating to code.

Unfortunately, flipping has become synonymous with fraud and scam because of the vilification home flipping received in the mid to late 1990’s (as the result of widespread fraud scams that involved flipped homes). Several cities were known as “ground zero” for flipping scams, Baltimore being one, because of the investors’ ability to purchase homes for very little money.

Although, there is nothing wrong with flipping a home per se; flipping has been rebuked because mortgage fraud was often entwined with the flip in several ways: loan officers falsified income and/or credit information for unqualified home buyers; fraudulent appraisals were used to justify artificially inflated sales prices; and/or “straw buyers” were recruited by the scammers to facilitate the scam. Additionally, flipping scammers often defrauded unknowing home buyers by portraying homes as having renovations, when in fact the renovations were not preformed or of poor quality and not meeting code.

To protect consumers and stem the mounting losses due to illegal flipping, HUD took action. HUD defines “flipping” as, “… a practice whereby a recently acquired property is resold for a considerable profit with an artificially inflated value, often abetted by a lender’s collusion with the appraiser…” (HUD MORTGAGEE LETTER 2003-07). To dissuade the financing of flips, FHA instituted a title seasoning (the time an owner is on title) requirement of at least 90 days; if the sale is between 91 and 180 days, the sales price cannot exceed 100% of the prior sales price.

In the wake of the illegal flipping scams that rocked many Baltimore neighborhoods, then Maryland Attorney General J. Joseph Curran, Jr. launched an initiative to combat deceptive real estate practices that included flipping and predatory lending. The initiative not only sought to prosecute scammers, but to educate home buyers through town hall meetings and a brochure.

The brochure (www.oag.state.md.us/consumer/flipbrochure.pdf) gives five signs that the sales price of the home may not be the value and that sale is a [illegal] flip, including: the seller does not answer questions about price or condition; and, the person “selling” the home is not on title or the home was recently sold.

Since flipping is on the rise, protect yourself by getting all the information. Find out if the seller is being deceptive, as well as how the flip may affect your ability to obtain a mortgage.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of December 14, 2009. Copyright © 2009 Dan Krell

Bethesda street scenes

by Dan Krell © 2009

As a diversion from the business of real estate, here are a few street scenes of Downtown Bethesda; these photos were taken late morning Friday around Woodmont Ave.
( If you like to see more Bethesda, Chevy Chase, or other local areas, let me know! -Dan)

Facing North on Woodmont Ave. (south of Old Georgetown Rd).
Click photo to see larger view

Facing South on Woodmont Ave. (south of Old Georgetown Rd).
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Facing North on Woodmont Ave. (in front of “The Chase”).
Click photo to see larger view