{"id":1233,"date":"2013-02-13T19:46:46","date_gmt":"2013-02-13T23:46:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/?p=1233"},"modified":"2020-12-02T07:37:29","modified_gmt":"2020-12-02T12:37:29","slug":"predicting-2013-home-sales-through-housing-statistics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/2013\/02\/13\/predicting-2013-home-sales-through-housing-statistics\/","title":{"rendered":"Predicting 2013 home sales through housing statistics"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Dan Krell
\nDanKrell.com<\/a>
\n\u00a9 2013<\/h3>\n

\"home<\/a>Much like a soap opera cliff hanger, 2012 home sales ended on an upward swing leaving people wanting more good news. There\u2019s a lot expected from this year\u2019s real estate market, so what are some of the experts saying about 2013<\/a>?<\/h1>\n

The latest S&P\/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (www.standardandpoors.com\/indices) press release dated January 29th reported home prices rose during 2012 through November rose in 19 of 20 cities. The 10-city composite revealed an annual home price increase of 4.5% and the 20-city composite revealed a home price increase of 5.5%. And although the release described that the seasonally adjusted home prices may be an indication of a week winter housing market, there was a clear pronouncement that \u201c\u2026housing is clearly recovering\u2026\u201d and pointed out that nationwide existing home sale volume outpaced recent years\u2019 volumes. The cities that made the most gains were the cities that experienced the most declines in home values and the highest foreclosure rates. The home price indices<\/a> of the 10-city and 20-city composites are reportedly back to 2003 levels.<\/p>\n

The National Association of Realtors\u00ae (realtor.org) reported in a February 11th press release that the national median existing single family home price increased 10% in the fourth quarter 2012 over the same period in 2011. And the Housing Affordability Index indicates that the homebuyer\u2019s buying power is at a point where they could \u201ccomfortably\u201d afford to purchase a home.<\/p>\n

Fourth quarter 2012 home sales volume was reported by NAR to be the highest since the fourth quarter 2009; 23% of home sales during the quarter were from distressed home sales (short sales and foreclosures). Additionally, home sale inventory was down about 21.6% for the quarter, which is the lowest since 2001.<\/p>\n

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun was reported as saying that home sales are being energized by \u201cpent up demand<\/a>\u201d and low inventories. He stated, \u201c\u2026all the conditions for strong price growth are at play.\u201d\u2026 “Home sales are on a sustained uptrend, mortgage interest rates are hovering near record lows and unsold inventory is at the lowest level in 12 years\u2026” Yun believes that \u201c\u2026supply and demand dynamics are very much at play.”<\/p>\n

Given recent reports from various sources, it looks as if there is momentum in the real estate market. And NAR\u2019s Dr. Yun lays out an argument for home sales that hasn\u2019t been since 2006. But chances are that 2013 home sales will be about many factors, not just \u201cpent up demand\u201d or \u201csupply and demand.\u201d For example, it is doubtful that hedge funds will continue the bulk foreclosure buying that pushed home sales figures to almost record levels.<\/p>\n

By themselves, housing indices are broad based measures that typically measure one aspect of the housing market; describing the variables responsible for the measures and indices is more difficult and usually a guess at what\u2019s happening in the marketplace. In an effort to provide a more meaningful measure of the housing market, I devised a measure called the \u201cKrell List-to-Sold Ratio<\/strong><\/em><\/a>;\u201d which is the ratio of total number of listings to the total number of homes sold in any given area during any time period. The January 2013 Krell List-to-Sold Ratio<\/strong><\/em> for Montgomery County reveals that activity continues to be elevated; which is interpreted to mean that the year has started stronger than recent years, but not as strong as 2012.<\/p>\n

More news and articles on \u201cthe Blog\u201d<\/a>
\n\"Protected<\/a>
\nThis article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice.\u00a0 Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright \u00a9 2012 Dan Krell.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Dan Krell DanKrell.com \u00a9 2013 Much like a soap opera cliff hanger, 2012 home sales ended on an upward swing leaving people wanting more good news. There\u2019s a lot expected from this year\u2019s real estate market, so what are some of the experts saying about 2013? The latest S&P\/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (www.standardandpoors.com\/indices) press … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Predicting 2013 home sales through housing statistics”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[387,139,664,13,412],"tags":[558,473,592,665,474],"class_list":["post-1233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-home-price-index","category-home-sales","category-krell-list-to-sold-ratio","category-real-estate","category-statistics","tag-case-shiller","tag-existing-home-sale-statistics","tag-existing-home-sales-data","tag-krell-list-to-sold-ratio-2","tag-nar-2"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1VZLf-jT","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1233","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1233"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1233\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6093,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1233\/revisions\/6093"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1233"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1233"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1233"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}