{"id":1478,"date":"2013-11-15T15:35:59","date_gmt":"2013-11-15T19:35:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/?p=1478"},"modified":"2019-07-04T18:09:10","modified_gmt":"2019-07-04T22:09:10","slug":"is-there-a-best-way-to-predict-the-housing-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/2013\/11\/15\/is-there-a-best-way-to-predict-the-housing-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Is there a best way to predict the housing market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\"predicting<\/a>If you\u2019re like most home sellers and buyers \u2013 you want an edge over your competition.\u00a0 What better way to get the edge than having a way to predict the market.\u00a0 If you don\u2019t have a working crystal ball, there are a few methods to forecast and measure housing (some of which have been used in empirical research).<\/figure><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Various studies demonstrate that you can assess and somewhat predict activity in a housing market; which, albeit in hindsight, can assist home sellers and buyers in determining whether it is a good time to sell or buy a home.  For example, I recently wrote about gauging real estate through divorce and premarital agreements<\/a>; which discussed the implications of these life events to the housing market.  The increase in prenups could indicate an increased perception in the value of home ownership and possibly the overall housing market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another recent study indicated that it may be possible to determine home pricing through internet search data.\u00a0 Beracha and Wintoki (Forecasting Residential Real Estate Price Changes from Online Search Activity<\/i>; The Journal of Real Estate Research<\/span> 35.3 (2013): 283-312.) set out to find out if keyword search engine data from Google could determine price shifts in various cities.\u00a0 They concluded that this may be the first study that directly links \u201caggregated\u201d search engine data to \u201cabnormal crosssectional home price changes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essentially, the research established that you can figure out metro housing market activity through Google Trends<\/a> and Google Insights, which provide keyword volume measurement in internet searches.  The study examined the keywords \u201creal estate [city<\/i>]\u201d from 2004 through 2011, and concluded that \u201c\u2026<\/i>cities associated with abnormally high real estate search intensity consistently outperform cities with abnormally low real estate search volume by as much as 8.5% over a two-year period<\/i>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And although the study\u2019s authors discussed prior research linking internet keyword searches and consumer behavior, they caution that there are a number of keywords related to real estate that may be more relevant than the keywords used in their study.  Regardless, the authors assume that their results may be useful in home sales and purchases.  More importantly, it may seem as if their results may strengthen the link between specific search engine keywords<\/a> (e.g, \u201creal estate Rockville\u201d or \u201creal estate Bethesda\u201d) and the ability to predict a housing bubble, or possibly home price peaks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Generalized, \u201cglobal\u201d data, such as those described in Beracha and Wintoki\u2019s study, and their meaning may be interesting; however, limiting yourself to such indiscriminate analysis for your home sale or purchase could be disadvantageous.  Global data does not distinguish the many factors that impact regional markets; nor can it sort out differences within a local market (neighborhood data within a region can vary significantly).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Using \u201cglobal\u201d tools may be useful; however, if you are planning a home sale or purchase \u2013 seek out the assistance of a local Realtor\u00ae.  Your real estate agent has access to local specific data<\/i><\/b> that is reported through the MLS.  Using MLS data, your agent can prepare a market analysis that compares your home to recent neighborhood sales; the breakdown can put your home in perspective and can give you a price range to assist you in listing or purchasing the home.  Additionally, your agent can provide a hyper-local<\/a> trend analysis so as to help you understand what to expect from the local housing market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Protected<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

by Dan Krell<\/a> \u00a9 2013<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Disclaimer<\/a>.\u00a0 This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice.\u00a0 Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction.\u00a0 Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright \u00a9 2013 Dan Krell.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If you\u2019re like most home sellers and buyers \u2013 you want an edge over your competition.\u00a0 What better way to get the edge than having a way to predict the market.\u00a0 If you don\u2019t have a working crystal ball, there are a few methods to forecast and measure housing (some of which have been used … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Is there a best way to predict the housing market”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[288,393,13,26,27,164],"tags":[466,445,917,797,593,491],"class_list":["post-1478","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-housing-market","category-predictions","category-real-estate","category-real-estate-market","category-real-estate-market-trends","category-trends-in-housing","tag-housing-market-2","tag-housing-market-trends","tag-predictions","tag-real-estate","tag-real-estate-market-2","tag-trends"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1VZLf-nQ","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1478","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1478"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1478\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5101,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1478\/revisions\/5101"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1478"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1478"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1478"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}