{"id":2563,"date":"2016-08-19T18:20:58","date_gmt":"2016-08-19T22:20:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/?p=2563"},"modified":"2021-11-23T16:44:18","modified_gmt":"2021-11-23T21:44:18","slug":"home-sale-timing-sell-for-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/2016\/08\/19\/home-sale-timing-sell-for-more\/","title":{"rendered":"Home sale timing – sell for more"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"home<\/a>
Timing the home sale (infographic from smartzip.com)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Everyone wants to know the future, especially when it comes to the home sale timing.\u00a0 Home sellers and buyers want to predict home prices.\u00a0 Home sellers want to know the best time to sell.\u00a0 While Home buyers want to know if they\u2019re getting a good price.\u00a0 And apparently there may be a fairly reliable predictor to home prices<\/a>, however it\u2019s not what you think it is.<\/p>\n

Several empirical studies have attempted to provide a methodology for predicting the housing market (home sale timing).\u00a0 Of course there is the familiar of forecasting real estate through divorce and premarital agreements.\u00a0 Back in 2013, the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyer (AAML.org) issued a press release<\/a> citing the increase of prenuptial agreements as sign of the improving economy.\u00a0 The increase in prenuptial agreements meant that people felt there was value in their assets.\u00a0 And this was meant to be a good sign in for housing market.<\/p>\n

Of course there was also a spike in divorces that year, leading some to believe this to also be a good sign that people felt better about the economy because of their willingness to begin anew.\u00a0 But as University of Maryland sociologist Philip N. Cohen pointed out in his November 2015 blog post (Divorce rate plunge\u00a0continues<\/em><\/a>; familyinequality.wordpress.com) the increased divorce activity of 2013 was a just a recession related \u201cbump\u201d and in actuality the divorce rate decreased in 2014.<\/p>\n

Then there was predicting housing through internet search data, which sounds more like fortune-telling than research to be honest.\u00a0 However, Beracha and Wintoki (Forecasting Residential Real Estate Price Changes from Online Search Activity<\/em><\/a>; The Journal of Real Estate Research<\/u> 35.3 (2013): 283-312.) concluded that, indeed, you can gauge regional housing trends through specific keyword search volume.\u00a0 Given this method, I used Google Trends to look up the keyword \u201chome for sale\u201d for the Washington DC metro region \u2013 and it is bound to become a hot market in the next six months (maybe a Presidential election has something to do with that?).<\/p>\n

But a better indicator of where home prices will go may be the availability of credit.\u00a0 Most would argue that mortgage lending is a matter of housing demand.\u00a0 However, a working paper by Manuel Adelino, Antoinette Schoar, and Felipe Severino (Credit Supply and House Prices<\/a>: Evidence from Mortgage Market Segmentation<\/em>; February 19, 2014) concluded that \u201ceasy credit supply leads to an increase in house prices.\u201d\u00a0 They contend that higher conforming loan limits and low interest rates benefit home sellers in the form of higher sale prices.<\/p>\n

Adelino, Schoar, and Severino\u2019s premise can be witnessed in hindsight as the pre-recession housing boom seemed to be fueled on easy credit.\u00a0 As credit became increasingly available, home value appreciation took off.\u00a0 Likewise, housing stabilized and home values appreciated post-recession as home lending requirements loosened.<\/p>\n

Of course, many associate easy credit policies with recessions, and even the Great Depression.\u00a0 However, it\u2019s not necessarily the easy credit that precipitates the recession \u2013 but rather it\u2019s the tightening of credit.\u00a0 <\/strong>Stephen Gandel (This is When You’ll Know it’s <\/em>Time to Panic About a Recession<\/em><\/a>; fortune.com; March 8,2016) said it succinctly, \u201cTightening credit doesn\u2019t always lead to a recession. But every recession starts with that.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n

One may infer from Adelino, Schoar, and Severino\u2019s research that a home seller can gauge their home sale price<\/a> based on the lending environment.\u00a0 Lower interest rates and loose credit points to a higher sale price.\u00a0 However, tightening credit policies may point to flat or even lower home prices.<\/p>\n

Copyright \u00a9 Dan Krell<\/p>\n

If you like this post, do not copy; instead please:
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\nDisclaimer<\/a>. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Everyone wants to know the future, especially when it comes to the home sale timing.\u00a0 Home sellers and buyers want to predict home prices.\u00a0 Home sellers want to know the best time to sell.\u00a0 While Home buyers want to know if they\u2019re getting a good price.\u00a0 And apparently there may be a fairly reliable predictor … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Home sale timing – sell for more”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1039,469,33,123,288,416,13],"tags":[1041,936,810,865,892,466,797,593,578],"class_list":["post-2563","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-getting-top-dollar","category-home-prices","category-home-pricing-strategy","category-home-sale","category-housing-market","category-market-timing","category-real-estate","tag-get-top-dollar","tag-home-prices","tag-home-pricing-strategy","tag-home-sale","tag-housing","tag-housing-market-2","tag-real-estate","tag-real-estate-market-2","tag-timing-the-market"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1VZLf-Fl","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2563","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2563"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2563\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6206,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2563\/revisions\/6206"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2563"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2563"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2563"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}