{"id":6061,"date":"2020-11-06T08:58:45","date_gmt":"2020-11-06T13:58:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/?p=6061"},"modified":"2020-11-06T08:59:32","modified_gmt":"2020-11-06T13:59:32","slug":"housing-and-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/2020\/11\/06\/housing-and-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"Housing and Elections"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"housing<\/a>
Pending home sales September 2020 (infographic from nar.realtor)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

In the past, I have commented on the housing debate<\/a> during the presidential election cycle.\u00a0 I deliberated on writing about it this year because of the uncommon circumstances the economy and housing market has been enduring since the beginning of pandemic-economics.\u00a0 Looking back, housing and elections is about the economic response to the policy implementation during a president\u2019s tenure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

During\nthe 2012 election cycle, David Cross, writing for the Movoto.com blog, analyzed\nhousing data from the California Association of Realtors and concluded that the\nhousing market did not fare well during the election year of a president (David\nCross; Election Years Are Bad for Home Prices<\/em>;\nmovoto.com; May 12, 2012).  There is typically election uncertainty and\nstress that affect the decisions of home buyers and sellers.  The analysis looked at home sale prices the\nthree years prior to the 2012 election and concluded that home sale prices did\nindeed recede significantly (average of 5 percent appreciation the three years\nprior to 2012 election, while only 1.5 percent appreciation during 2012).  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately,\nCross\u2019 assessment was flawed for many reasons. \nFirst the time period that the analysis occurred was during a time when\nhome prices fluctuated because housing was still emerging from the Great\nRecession.  Second, the data is limited\nto California.  Third, the data was\nlimited to a three-year period.  Fourth and\nmost important, economic cycles were atypical during that time period because\nof the continued recovery from the Great Recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even the NAR was said to have commented on this analysis, stating that the housing market responds to many factors.\u00a0 Economic factors typically include employment, interest rates, and consumer confidence.\u00a0 Rather than the elections having an impact on the housing market, it\u2019s more likely that economic and social policy effects real estate at any given time.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, other factors that we have seen play out over the last decade is the shift in lifestyle.\u00a0 Notwithstanding this year\u2019s pandemic, people are increasingly working from home.\u00a0 Prior to the pandemic, there was an abundant of research pointing to telecommuting\u2019s effect on the commercial real estate market.\u00a0 The analysis of increased office space vacancies points to telecommuting<\/a>.\u00a0 As more employees are working from their home office spaces, companies are reducing their office footprint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A major factor that has impacted home re-sale inventory is \u201caging in place<\/a>.\u201d\u00a0 After the Great Recession, many Boomers have decided to stay in their homes.\u00a0 The post-recession attitude about housing changed.\u00a0 Many seniors decided not to downsize, but rathe stay in their family homes much longer.\u00a0 Additionally, multi-generational households increased and remain popular.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also during the 2012 presidential election cycle, the Mortgage Interest Deduction<\/a> was scrutinized.\u00a0 It wasn\u2019t only on a national level, but the debate also occurred at the state level.\u00a0 The MID debate continues to today.\u00a0 Some argue that the MID artificially inflates home prices, because the MID is somewhat of a home owner subsidy.\u00a0 Others argue that the MID is necessary to make housing affordable.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Housing and elections during 2016 was front and center. At least for its fifteen minutes of fame.\u00a0 The Housing Party<\/a> threw its hat in the ring to \u201cMake Housing Great Again\u201d (As President, I\u2019ll Make American Housing Great Again\u2014Really<\/em>; realtor.com; October 21, 2015). \u00a0The Housing Party\u2019s platform had a focus on middle-class America and affordable housing by working toward getting a home for every family. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

How will the housing market react to this year\u2019s election?\u00a0 As the idiom states, \u201cthe proof is in the pudding.\u201d\u00a0 Which means that we\u2019ll only see the effect after policy implementation and economic <\/a>response.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Dan Krell
Copyright \u00a9 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Original located at https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/2020\/11\/06\/housing-and-elections\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Disclaimer<\/a>.\n This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon \nfor legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the \ninformation contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive\n or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney \nregarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and \njurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of \ncopyright laws.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the past, I have commented on the housing debate during the presidential election cycle.\u00a0 I deliberated on writing about it this year because of the uncommon circumstances the economy and housing market has been enduring since the beginning of pandemic-economics.\u00a0 Looking back, housing and elections is about the economic response to the policy implementation … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Housing and Elections”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-real-estate"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1VZLf-1zL","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6061","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6061"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6061\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6066,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6061\/revisions\/6066"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6061"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6061"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6061"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}