{"id":6121,"date":"2020-12-27T12:04:17","date_gmt":"2020-12-27T17:04:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/?p=6121"},"modified":"2021-11-23T17:07:44","modified_gmt":"2021-11-23T22:07:44","slug":"home-sale-predictions-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/2020\/12\/27\/home-sale-predictions-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"Home Sale Predictions 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"home<\/a>
Home equity 2020<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Given the performance of the housing market this year, can we make home sale predictions for next year? The housing market had quite a year!  It\u2019s amazing how resilient the market is, which demonstrates the appeal of homeownership.  Even after a significant spring slowdown, home sales rebounded to record levels in the fall.  NAR\u2019s Existing Home Sales and Pending Home Sale Indice<\/a>s for October 2020 increased year-over-year 26.6 and 20 percent respectively (nar.realtor).  Even as we headed toward the holidays, NAR\u2019s November Existing Home Sales increased 25.8 percent year-over-year.  And year-over-year median home prices increased 14.6 percent.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While\nsome experts expect the recent housing market activity to continue, others\nquestion if this intense home buying is sustainable.  Making home sale predictions for the new year\nhas always been predicated on recent trends. \nHowever, 2020 was different. \nUnexpected and unusual events occurred throughout the year affecting the\nhousing market.  First taking a pause because\nof an economic shock, home sales made up ground later in the year.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent trends suggest that home buying will continue at a healthy rate, as long as the economy remains relatively similar.  However, being an election year there is anticipation for change.  Even many economists, who are typically ready to offer their opinion, are ambivalent about the economy.  This may suggest that the economic outlook for the near future is uncertain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A main factor to watch in 2021, is employment<\/a>.  It\u2019s a known fact that unemployment directly effects home sales.  In periods of increasing unemployment, home sales decline.  A 2010 Florida Realtors (floridayrealtors.org) survey demonstrated a correlation between unemployment and foreclosures.  There is no coincidence that home sales strongly rebounded along with employment and the economy.  If employment remains stable into 2021, home sales will continue to over-perform.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other\nfactors that will drive the housing market in 2021 include mortgage interest\nrates, home sale inventory, and home buyer demand.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mortgage rates have been relatively low since 2008.  At that time, rates hovered in the low 4\u2019s, and were though to be \u201chistorically low.\u201d  Also, consider that mortgage rates were in the 18 percent range during the early 1980\u2019s.  Even during the go-go market of 2005-2006, rates hovered in the 6 percent range.  But the most recent mortgage interest rate average of 2.66 percent for a 30-year-fixed rate is described as \u201canother record low\u201d by Freddie Mac\u2019s December 24th<\/sup> 2020 Primary Mortgage Market Survey<\/a> (freddiemac.com).  If mortgage rates remain low, home buyers will be incentivized to buy homes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another after-effect of the Great Recession, which continues today, is low home sale inventory<\/a>.  The Great Recession changed how consumers thought of housing.  Since 2008, home owners have remained in their homes much longer.  Many growing families make due with smaller spaces, rather than moving-up to a larger home.  Many older home owners are deciding to \u201cage in place,\u201d in lieu of down-sizing.  And telecommuting is outpacing job relocation.  Home sale inventory of non-distressed properties will continue to remain low through 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is always \u201chome buyer demand<\/a>.\u201d  Meaning there are always active home buyers.  However, the strength of the demand varies.  Home buyer demand is typically gauged in hindsight through home sales and pending home sales.  When you combine housing stats with other factors, such as employment, economy, and mortgage rates you can estimate the strength of future home buyer demand.  If economic factors remain stable, home buyer demand will continue to be strong in 2021.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Original published at https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/2020\/12\/27\/home-sale-predictions-2021\/ <\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Dan Krell
Copyright \u00a9 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Disclaimer<\/a>.\n This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon \nfor legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the \ninformation contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive\n or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney \nregarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and \njurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of \ncopyright laws.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Given the performance of the housing market this year, can we make home sale predictions for next year? The housing market had quite a year!  It\u2019s amazing how resilient the market is, which demonstrates the appeal of homeownership.  Even after a significant spring slowdown, home sales rebounded to record levels in the fall.  NAR\u2019s Existing … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Home Sale Predictions 2021”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[234,139,288,29,416,393,13,26,27],"tags":[893,466,445,807,925,917,797],"class_list":["post-6121","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-home-sales","category-housing-market","category-market-conditions","category-market-timing","category-predictions","category-real-estate","category-real-estate-market","category-real-estate-market-trends","tag-economy","tag-housing-market-2","tag-housing-market-trends","tag-market-conditions","tag-market-timing","tag-predictions","tag-real-estate"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1VZLf-1AJ","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6121","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6121"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6121\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6231,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6121\/revisions\/6231"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6121"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6121"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dankrell.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6121"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}