Home market value

home market value
Home Market Value (infographic from keepingcurrentmatters.com)

It’s normal for homeowners to wonder about their home market value. After all, home sales and prices have been making headlines for well over a decade.  But you certainly can’t get a home market value from a headline, nor can you assume it from a neighbor’s sale.  The reality is that your home market value could vary depending on whom and when you ask.

A timely and important review article by Michael Sanders recently published in the Appraisal Journal asks the question “what does Market Value Mean?”  (Market Value: What Does It Really Mean?; Appraisal Journal. Summer2018, 86:3, p206-218).  The article correctly points out that determining “market value” can realize different results depending on the scope and purpose of the appraisal.  You can see how this might be problematic if you’re trying to determine a home’s value when divorcing or trying to sell an estate property.  Some mortgage lenders even have different value criteria depending on the loan product and purpose.

Sanders suggests that “market value” undergoes scrutiny when valuations are difficult and appraisals are questioned (e.g., during a recession).  However, having a discussion about the meaning of “market value” now, when there is relative market stability, is probably meaningful for the industry and consumers.  Interestingly, the semantics of “market value” have changed through the years, and ultimately depends on the application.  He points out at least twelve similar but different legal definitions of “market value.”

Sanders suggests that Richard Radcliff, an appraisal pioneer of the 1960’s, was ahead of his time by advocated for most probable price valuations.  An ongoing debate in appraisal circles is whether “market value” is the highest price or probable price.  However, it wasn’t until the 1980’s when appraisal articles academically contemplated the association of “probable sale price” and “market value.”

Sanders quotes Richard Ratcliff saying, “appraisal is largely the predicting of human behavior under given market conditions.”  Sanders quips about an “ideal world”, where “appraisers would apply market value definitions using a relatively consistent and objective standard, and reflect conditions in the market as they exist, rather than how others might wish them to be.

Although the accepted dictionary definition of “market value” is the price a buyer is willing to pay for your home, market value and sale price could be different (and often is).  And according to Sanders, an appraised “market value” isn’t necessarily the price for which your home may sell.

At this point you may be asking yourself, “how much is my home really worth?”  For the answer, you may have to ask a Realtor.

Realtors use market data to prepare comparative market analyses (CMA) that can help buyers and sellers decide on a sale price.  Although a CMA is not an appraisal, it is a technical and methodical professional analysis that provides a snapshot of the market.  The CMA is typically more refined in scope than an appraisal, such that it is usually limited to a neighborhood and home criteria.  Additionally, depending on the location and availability of comparable sales, it can provide a 30, 60, and 90-day probable sale price range based on market trends.

If you’re planning a home sale, a Realtor’s CMA may be your best source of information to decide on a listing price.  Even mortgage lenders have relied on Realtor CMA’s, in the form of Broker Price Opinions, to help decide on sale prices for short sales and bank owned homes.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2018/12/13/home-market-value/(opens in a new tab)

By Dan Krell. Copyright © 2018.

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Next housing crisis and appraisals

next housing crisisAre government agencies setting up the next housing crisis?  A November 20th proposal from the FDIC, the Fed, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, has some consumer advocates suggesting just that.  The joint proposal from these agencies would have the threshold for a (1-4 unit) residential mortgage appraisal increased from $250,000 to $400,000.  This means that an appraisal would not be necessary for homes valued less than $400,000.  However, this rule would not apply to mortgages insured or guaranteed by federal agencies, such as FHA or VA mortgages.

Contrary to causing the next housing crisis, the rationale given for the appraisal rule change is to reduce mortgage processing delays.  The change is also supposed to reduce costs to both financial institutions and consumers.  The proposal states:

The agencies believe that the proposed increase to the appraisal threshold for residential real estate transactions would reduce burden in a manner that is consistent with federal public policy interests in real estate-related transactions and the safety and soundness of regulated institutions.”

However, the Appraisal Institute (appraisalinstitute.org) is in strong disagreement.  AI president James L. Murrett, MAI, SRA stated in a press release that the rule change could potentially harm consumers by undermining “crucial risk mitigation services.”  Murrett commented,

The Appraisal Institute anticipates that [the increase] will result in a return to the loan production-driven environment seen during the leadup to the financial crisis, where appraisal and risk management were thrust aside to make more – not better – loans. Apparently, the FDIC has learned nothing from that experience.

The Appraisal Institute is not alone in rejecting the rule change for residential mortgages, as opposition is being voiced from various consumer organizations.  But the proposal should not have been a surprise.  Changing the appraisal thresholds, which has not been adjusted since 1994, has been in the works for several years.  And rumor of an imminent rule change was reported in January by Patrick Rucker for Reuters (U.S. regulators ready to ease check on property values: sources; Reuters.com; January 28, 2018).  Mortgage Bankers Association supported a threshold increase because of appraiser shortages, especially in rural areas.  However, consumer advocates are concerned of triggering a new housing crisis because improperly inflated home values contributed to the last crisis.

Interestingly, although this appraisal rule was considered earlier this year, a threshold change was only made for commercial mortgages.  The final rule dated April 9th raised the threshold for commercial appraisals from $250,000 to $500,000.

Some industry associations, such as the National Association of Realtors, have yet to comment on the recent proposal to increase the residential appraisal threshold.  However, the NAR did issue a statement April 5th supporting the commercial appraisal threshold increase.

Curiously, NAR’s recent support for increasing the commercial appraisal threshold is counter to their 2016 statement in favor of maintaining a $250,000 threshold.  The 2016 letter sent to the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council stated:

“NAR believes increasing the appraisal threshold levels would undermine the health of the real estate lending industry as a whole. As NAR states in its Responsible Valuation Policy, a trustworthy valuation of real property ensures the real property value is sufficient to collateralize the mortgage, protect the mortgagor, allow secondary markets to have confidence in the mortgage products and mortgage backed securities, and build public trust in the real estate profession.

It remains to be seen if NAR’s position on “building trust in the real estate profession” will completely change to also support an increased residential appraisal threshold.  Or if not requiring appraisals for homes under $400,000 will cause the next housing crisis.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2018/11/30/next-housing-crisis-appraisals/(opens in a new tab)

By Dan Krell. Copyright © 2018.

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

What’s a home worth – Appraisals, market analyses, and price opinions

house valuesWhat’s the value of my home?” is a question that is often asked by many home owners at least once, usually before they decide to refinance or list their home for sale.  Although the question seems straight forward enough, the answer may not be – and can vary depending on whom you ask.

Market Value can have different meanings.  Some may view a home’s value in terms of an asset on a balance sheet, while others may consider a home’s value as a potential sales price.  And although these approaches to value may be similar, there is often significant disparity in their conclusions.

Mortgage lenders consider a home to be an asset, which is the basis for lending you money; as well as the basis for bundling and selling mortgages on Wall Street.  Additionally, a home is often considered an asset or liability when determining the disposition of legal proceedings, such as (but not limited to) probate and divorce.  A real estate appraisal is most likely used in determining market value for these situations.

According to the Appraisal Institute (Pamphlet “Some Commonly Asked Questions About Real Estate Appraisers and Appraisals”; appraisalinstitute.org), “An appraisal is a professional appraiser’s opinion of value. The preparation of an appraisal involves research into appropriate market areas; the assembly and analysis of information pertinent to a property; and the knowledge, experience and professional judgment of the appraiser.”  Additionally, Title 16 of the Business Occupations and Professions, Annotated Code of Maryland defines an “appraisal” as a “…means an analysis, conclusion, or opinion about the nature, quality, utility, or value of interests in or aspects of identified real estate” (§ 16-101. Definitions).

Not to be confused with an appraisal, a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) can assist a home owner with deciding on a listing or sales price.  In fact, § 16-101 differentiates a CMA from an appraisal by stating, “’Appraisal’ does not include an opinion to a potential seller or third party by a person licensed under Title 17 of this article [referring to a real estate broker] about the recommended listing price or recommended purchase price of real estate, provided that the opinion is not referred to as an appraisal.”

If you are asking about the value of your home because you’re planning a home sale, consider consulting with a real estate and a CMA.  Although a thorough and professional CMA is not an appraisal, a CMA is a technical and methodical procedure that is typically limited to a specific neighborhood or subdivision so as to offer a rationale for a probable listing or sales price.  Unlike appraisal methodology, which is uniform; there is no standard approach to preparing a CMA; however, a comprehensive CMA can be technical and systematic, as well as offering a market trends analysis in one, three, and six month segments.

Many lenders have also turned to agent prepared CMA’s to assist in determining potential listing or sales prices for distressed assets (e.g., foreclosures and short sales).  Also known as broker price opinions, these CMA’s provide a market snapshot to assist with such disposition decisions.

The value of your home will vary depending on whom you ask; your neighbor may even have an opinion.  However, if you’re planning a home sale, an experienced agent and their detailed CMA may be your best source of information to decide on a listing price.

by Dan Krell © 2013
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Disclaimer.  This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice.  Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction.  This article was originally published the week of December 16, 2013 (Montgomery County Sentinel). Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

Bold predictions for real estate and housing

by Dan Krell
DanKrell.com
© 2012
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fortuneWe survived the “Mayan Apocalypse” of 2012, so what’s in store for the housing market and the real estate industry in 2013?

The “Long Slog:” Although analysts disagree about the date of the housing market bottom, most agree that the national housing market bottomed out sometime time in 2009-2010.  Many looked forward toward 2012 to be a phenomenal year for housing and a return to normalcy.  Certainly 2012 housing figures were better than those of 2011, but in many areas of the country (including locally), the market fell short of outperforming 2010.

Unlike the occasional Pollyanna story about the local housing market, analysts expect “the long slog” or “the long grind” that will take years (emphasis on the plural) to get back to normalcy.  No matter how you articulate it, and barring future economic setbacks, experts describe the climb out from the bottom as a long, slow trudge that will have high and low points along the journey.

Home sale prices: When real estate fell into a seemingly endless downward spiral in 2008, some sectors continued to do well.  Homes priced at and above one million dollars continued to outperform other sectors of the housing market through 2011.  The “upper bracket” sector began to show weaknesses in the early part of 2012; as luxury home sales slowed, mid-range home sales picked up momentum.  However, activity flipped toward the end of 2012; as upper bracket activity increased significantly, while activity in other price sectors decreased.  Until fiscal cliff, debt ceiling, and other government budget debates are resolved; local upper bracket home sales will be inconsistent during 2013.  This market bifurcation can skew local monthly average home sales figures, as well as possibly distorting monthly marketplace snapshots.

Hyper-local real estate: Regional and local variances in home sale prices will require home buyers and sellers to continue to focus on hyper-local data to determine selling prices.  One of the best ways for you to clarify neighborhood sales trends is to consult a local real estate agent for recent neighborhood comparables.

Mortgages & Appraisals:  Getting a mortgage may become be increasing difficult in 2013.  Recent reports of FHA losses and a possible bailout could force new guideline changes to help the venerable mortgage program.  Because of increased foreclosures and delinquencies, there is talk about FHA becoming increasingly credit score reliant, and increasing mortgage insurance premiums for riskier borrowers.

Appraisals will continue to be a lightening rod of criticism and a source frustration.  Since its inception, the Home Valuation Code of Conduct was confusing to everyone, and eventually became a scapegoat for many seemingly inconsistent valuations.  However, a low sales volume due to lack of resale inventory will also create issues with appraisals.

Pent-up demand: No need to worry about interest rates – yet.  Keeping mortgage interest rates low, the Federal Reserve has commented on continued purchases of mortgage backed securities as part of a larger stimulus program.  However, continued low mortgage interest rates may not be the reason for home buyer activity as much as pent up demand.  However, home buyers waiting on the sidelines to purchase a home have been met with low resale inventories during 2012.  For many home owners, the general lack of home equity remains the major reason to not sell a home; and it’s also a reason for low resale inventories to continue through 2013.  Continued low inventory environment will create a competitive environment for home buyers.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of January 1, 2013. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

Home sellers may encouter surprises

by Dan Krell © 2012
DanKrell.com

money to close on homeSo you’re planning to list your home in the spring, or maybe your home is already listed for sale…

In an effort to avoid surprises, you consult with your real estate agent and ask many questions. Your agent, also looking forward to a transaction without incident, tries to prepare you for the ups and downs of home selling. No matter how much preparation you and your agent do for the sale, there still can be surprises; here are the three often encountered surprises:

The home buyer failed to qualify for their mortgage:

Real estate agents often do not discuss the truth about lender pre-approval letters (lender pre-approval letters are not all the same). When you receive an offer on your home, there is usually a “pre-approval” letter from a mortgage lender indicating that the buyer is qualified to obtain a mortgage to purchase your home.

Although the pre-approval process typically checks the buyer’s credit, the process sometimes varies when it comes to verifying the buyer’s income and assets. Although many loan officers exercise due diligence and collect income and asset documentation prior to issuing a pre-approval letter; some loan officers feel confident to issue a pre-approval letter solely on the basis of the buyer’s verbal accounting of their income and assets. Make sure your agent is in contact with the buyer’s loan officer; and ask if all the necessary documents have been reviewed before the pre-approval letter was issued.

Unanticipated withholding tax at closing:

Besides negotiating closing costs, your agent will explain that there are additional fees and costs that you should expect to pay at closing. A surprise often awaiting the unsuspecting home seller is a withholding tax; such as the Maryland non-resident seller withholding tax, the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act, and beginning in 2013- the unearned income tax outlined in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010. Additional information can be obtained from the Comptroller of Maryland, and the Internal Revenue Service, and your tax preparer or CPA. Before listing your home for sale, consult your tax preparer or CPA to determine your tax liability for any additional real estate related withholding tax.

Your home does not appraise at contract price:

One of the outcomes of the financial crisis was the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC). The HVCC was devised to establish increased accountability and independence in the appraisal industry. You might think that since placing additional regulation on the appraisal industry, appraisals should be more consistent. However, there has been much criticism about the inconsistency among appraisals and difficulty in understanding the standards and methodology used in determining a home’s value. The issue may partly stem from appraisal management companies that are sometimes used by lenders to comply with the HVCC, while the issue may also partly stem from lenders imposing specific underwriting guidelines on various loan products. In preparation, your agent should gather valid sales comparables that can be given to the appraiser as rationale for the contract price.

No one like surprises, so hopefully you’re prepared for the ups and downs of selling your home in today’s market. Although some real estate agents may pride themselves on how they handle surprises to put out the “fires;” the truly skilled agent can anticipate most situations to minimize the surprises that can occur during a real estate transaction.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of September 24, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.