Real Estate News and Commentary - news, commentary, and opinion

December 13, 2018December 13, 2018

Home market value

It’s normal for homeowners to wonder about their home market value. After all, home sales and prices have been making headlines for well over a decade. But you certainly can’t get a home market value from a headline, nor can you assume it from a neighbor’s sale. The reality is that your home market value could vary depending on whom and when you ask.

A timely and important review article by Michael Sanders recently published in the Appraisal Journal asks the question “what does Market Value Mean?” (Market Value: What Does It Really Mean?; Appraisal Journal. Summer2018, 86:3, p206-218). The article correctly points out that determining “market value” can realize different results depending on the scope and purpose of the appraisal. You can see how this might be problematic if you’re trying to determine a home’s value when divorcing or trying to sell an estate property. Some mortgage lenders even have different value criteria depending on the loan product and purpose.

Sanders suggests that “market value” undergoes scrutiny when valuations are difficult and appraisals are questioned (e.g., during a recession). However, having a discussion about the meaning of “market value” now, when there is relative market stability, is probably meaningful for the industry and consumers. Interestingly, the semantics of “market value” have changed through the years, and ultimately depends on the application. He points out at least twelve similar but different legal definitions of “market value.”

Sanders suggests that Richard Radcliff, an appraisal pioneer of the 1960’s, was ahead of his time by advocated for most probable price valuations. An ongoing debate in appraisal circles is whether “market value” is the highest price or probable price. However, it wasn’t until the 1980’s when appraisal articles academically contemplated the association of “probable sale price” and “market value.”

Sanders quotes Richard Ratcliff saying, “appraisal is largely the predicting of human behavior under given market conditions.” Sanders quips about an “ideal world”, where “appraisers would apply market value definitions using a relatively consistent and objective standard, and reflect conditions in the market as they exist, rather than how others might wish them to be.”

Although the accepted dictionary definition of “market value” is the price a buyer is willing to pay for your home, market value and sale price could be different (and often is). And according to Sanders, an appraised “market value” isn’t necessarily the price for which your home may sell.

At this point you may be asking yourself, “how much is my home really worth?” For the answer, you may have to ask a Realtor.

Realtors use market data to prepare comparative market analyses (CMA) that can help buyers and sellers decide on a sale price. Although a CMA is not an appraisal, it is a technical and methodical professional analysis that provides a snapshot of the market. The CMA is typically more refined in scope than an appraisal, such that it is usually limited to a neighborhood and home criteria. Additionally, depending on the location and availability of comparable sales, it can provide a 30, 60, and 90-day probable sale price range based on market trends.

If you’re planning a home sale, a Realtor’s CMA may be your best source of information to decide on a listing price. Even mortgage lenders have relied on Realtor CMA’s, in the form of Broker Price Opinions, to help decide on sale prices for short sales and bank owned homes.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

December 7, 2018December 11, 2018

Civil asset forfeiture

Can your home be seized through civil asset forfeiture? Consider the ongoing and expanded effort to identify cash purchases of residential real estate to catch criminals.

An imminent Supreme Court decision on Timbs v. Indiana could have implications on your home and property. Although the case is about excessive fines brought on by a state, it highlights the issue of due process in civil asset forfeiture. To bring you up to speed, the case is about the seizure of an Indiana resident’s $42,000 Land Rover by the state of Indiana, although his drug related fine was only $10,000. The Land Rover was allegedly purchased from cash obtained from an insurance policy, instead of illicit monies.

Civil asset forfeit is a when the government (federal, state, or local) confiscates your property when you are suspected of a crime. You don’t necessarily have to be charged or convicted of the crime. Civil libertarians criticize governments and law enforcement agencies for abusing civil asset forfeiture for profit. Maryland is one of the many states that have recently passed legislation reforming civil asset forfeiture. However, Congress has yet to pass a civil asset forfeiture reform bill.

In their effort to fight money laundering and mortgage fraud, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (fincen.gov) recently stated that their Geographic Targeting Orders (GTOs) program has “provided valuable data on the purchase of residential real estate by persons implicated, or allegedly involved, in various illicit enterprises including foreign corruption, organized crime, fraud, narcotics trafficking, and other violations. Reissuing the GTOs will further assist in tracking illicit funds and other criminal or illicit activity…”

Previous GTO’s required title companies to report all-cash transactions that met specific criteria. The purpose was to track and identify individuals who mask their identity behind shell companies. FinCen found that the GTO program provided “valuable data on the purchase of residential real estate by persons implicated, or allegedly involved, in various illicit enterprises including foreign corruption, organized crime, fraud, narcotics trafficking, and other violations.” So much so, that A November 15th press release revealed expanded reporting criteria and metro coverage. FinCen believes that the “reissued GTO” will assist in “tracking illicit activity.”

FinCen’s targets were previously limited to suspected foreign entities purchasing luxury properties. However, FinCen is becoming increasingly aggressive to include more transactions and individuals in their reporting criteria.

Two years ago, I reported on the expansion of the FinCen’s interest in fighting mortgage fraud and money laundering through residential real estate transactions. A January 13th 2016 FinCen release stated their intention in expanding their anti-money-laundering efforts to cash purchases of luxury real estate. The GTO was supposed to help learn about the risk posed by “corrupt foreign officials, or transnational criminals” who were suspected of “secretly” buying of luxury real estate in certain metropolitan areas.

Previous GTO’s focused on the cash purchases of luxury homes (over $1 million) in limited metro areas. However, in their November 15th revision, FinCen lowers the reporting threshold of cash purchases to $300,000. Additionally, the metro areas of interest have been expanded to include certain counties Boston, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Honolulu, Las Vegas. Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, San Antonio, San Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle. Additionally, title companies in those metro areas are also to report “natural persons” behind shell companies used in all-cash purchases of residential real estate, as well as virtual currency purchases.

Original published at https://dankrell.com

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November 30, 2018December 11, 2018

Next housing crisis and appraisals

Are government agencies setting up the next housing crisis? A November 20^th proposal from the FDIC, the Fed, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, has some consumer advocates suggesting just that. The joint proposal from these agencies would have the threshold for a (1-4 unit) residential mortgage appraisal increased from $250,000 to $400,000. This means that an appraisal would not be necessary for homes valued less than $400,000. However, this rule would not apply to mortgages insured or guaranteed by federal agencies, such as FHA or VA mortgages.

Contrary to causing the next housing crisis, the rationale given for the appraisal rule change is to reduce mortgage processing delays. The change is also supposed to reduce costs to both financial institutions and consumers. The proposal states:

“The agencies believe that the proposed increase to the appraisal threshold for residential real estate transactions would reduce burden in a manner that is consistent with federal public policy interests in real estate-related transactions and the safety and soundness of regulated institutions.”

However, the Appraisal Institute (appraisalinstitute.org) is in strong disagreement. AI president James L. Murrett, MAI, SRA stated in a press release that the rule change could potentially harm consumers by undermining “crucial risk mitigation services.” Murrett commented,

“The Appraisal Institute anticipates that [the increase] will result in a return to the loan production-driven environment seen during the leadup to the financial crisis, where appraisal and risk management were thrust aside to make more – not better – loans. Apparently, the FDIC has learned nothing from that experience.”

The Appraisal Institute is not alone in rejecting the rule change for residential mortgages, as opposition is being voiced from various consumer organizations. But the proposal should not have been a surprise. Changing the appraisal thresholds, which has not been adjusted since 1994, has been in the works for several years. And rumor of an imminent rule change was reported in January by Patrick Rucker for Reuters (U.S. regulators ready to ease check on property values: sources; Reuters.com; January 28, 2018). Mortgage Bankers Association supported a threshold increase because of appraiser shortages, especially in rural areas. However, consumer advocates are concerned of triggering a new housing crisis because improperly inflated home values contributed to the last crisis.

Interestingly, although this appraisal rule was considered earlier this year, a threshold change was only made for commercial mortgages. The final rule dated April 9^th raised the threshold for commercial appraisals from $250,000 to $500,000.

Some industry associations, such as the National Association of Realtors, have yet to comment on the recent proposal to increase the residential appraisal threshold. However, the NAR did issue a statement April 5^th supporting the commercial appraisal threshold increase.

Curiously, NAR’s recent support for increasing the commercial appraisal threshold is counter to their 2016 statement in favor of maintaining a $250,000 threshold. The 2016 letter sent to the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council stated:

“NAR believes increasing the appraisal threshold levels would undermine the health of the real estate lending industry as a whole. As NAR states in its Responsible Valuation Policy, a trustworthy valuation of real property ensures the real property value is sufficient to collateralize the mortgage, protect the mortgagor, allow secondary markets to have confidence in the mortgage products and mortgage backed securities, and build public trust in the real estate profession.”

It remains to be seen if NAR’s position on “building trust in the real estate profession” will completely change to also support an increased residential appraisal threshold. Or if not requiring appraisals for homes under $400,000 will cause the next housing crisis.

Original published at https://dankrell.com

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November 21, 2018November 21, 2018

Real Estate Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving is a time to take stock and be thankful. Although the original Thanksgiving may have had a religious purpose, today’s secular holiday is about traditions. However, it seems as if the tradition of enjoying a peaceful meal with family and friends has been increasingly difficult over the past few years. But since the election is over, let’s try to talk about something worthy of discussion (at least until the next election cycle begins), such as real estate and housing. Yes, it’s a “Real Estate Thanksgiving.”

Why shouldn’t we focus on something we all can get behind? There is a good chance that your dinner guests will include someone will be moving next year. Whether they are buying, selling, or renting a home, someone at the dinner table will be affected by such issues as housing affordability, mortgage rates, and availability of homes.

Things to talk about during your Real Estate Thanksgiving might be about mortgages, home sales, home prices, rent, maintenance, etc. The topics are seemingly endless.

Talking about mortgages during the Real Estate Thanksgiving. The current news is about mortgage interest rates. How high will mortgage rates go? Housing experts agree that mortgage rates will likely be about 5 percent next year (although the Fed just announced they may hold off on interest rate hikes after spring). Paying more interest on your mortgage may not be your idea of positively affecting home sales. However, increasing mortgage rates typically moderate home price growth because of affordability. Another silver lining of increasing interest rates is a stimulated lending environment. As a result, mortgage companies will likely further loosen lending requirements, which will increase the home buyer pool.

Real Estate Thanksgiving and home sales could focus on the reasons for the fall slowdown. Will home sales rebound this spring? You’re probably aware that home sales have dropped off during the fall. Major media outlets have grasped the news and created the meme depicting “housing bubble 2.0.” You can’t really blame them because there are many economists who are projecting bleak home sales to continue through spring.

The main reason for a disappointing 2019 forecast given by many industry insiders is affordability. I contend that this rationale is shallow and one-dimensional. There is no doubt that rising interest rates and increasing home prices are on the minds of home buyers. However, the lack of home sale inventory is a dimension that is often forgotten when discussing home sales and rentals. The lack of available homes for buyers and tenants to choose has forced many into fierce competition. The result has been upward pressure on home prices and rents.

You have to also consider the economy at your Real Estate Thanksgiving. The strength of the economy is an aspect affecting the housing market that many haven’t discussed. Whether you want to admit it or not, the economy is the strongest it has been in decades. Consumer outlook is optimistic. Home buyers and renters have expressed confidence about their job prospects too. Employers are competing for talent, influencing the highest wage increases in over a decade.

Commenting on the economy, First American chief economist Mark Fleming believes that the economy will be a major force in the housing market (How Will a Potential September Rate Hike Impact Existing-Home Sales?; blog.firstam.com; September 18, 2018). One of the features of his analysis for 2019 is “It’s the Economy and First-Time Home Buyer Demand, Stupid.” He described a pent-up demand from a wave of millennial of first-time home buyers who will be in the market next year.

Fleming explained that home sales slump during an adjustment period that home buyers undergo when interest rates increase. The same thing occurred in 2010 when rates increased from 4.5 to 5 percent. However, the economy was struggling at that time, and home sales were stagnant. Fleming described First American’s positive housing forecasts overcoming rising interest rates, saying,

“According to our Potential Home Sales Model, the boost from the strong economy and first-time home buyer demand should overcome any downward pressure from rising rates on home sales.”

Original article is published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2018/11/21/real-estate-thanksgiving/

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November 17, 2018

Home sale renovations

According to the National Association of Realtors (nar.realtor), the average time a homeowner stays in their home is ten years. This is higher than the seven-year average prior to the great recession (but is less than the thirteen-year average immediately following the recession). Needless to say, many homeowners are approaching (or have exceeded) their ten-year stint, and are likely selling their home during the spring and will likely be doing home sale renovations.

Any home sale preparation in today’s housing market should include some home sale renovations. If you haven’t replaced the home’s systems (such as the roof or HVAC) while you lived in your home, there’s a good chance that they are approaching or have exceeded their average life expectancy.

Additionally, the décor and fixtures in your home are likely outdated. The home sellers who make the mistake of not updating or renovating before they list inevitably face home inspection issues. They ultimately find that the home takes longer to sell at a reduced price.

Let’s face it, remodeling can be expensive and overwhelming, especially when it’s for home sale renovations. According to the NAR’s 2017 Remodeling Impact Report, about $340 billion was spent on remodeling projects in 2015. Although a majority of homeowners would remodel their home themselves, thirty-five percent would prefer to move instead of remodeling their home.

The Report cited functionality and livability as the top reasons for home sale renovations. It’s a no-brainer that home buyers prefer homes that are functional, comfortable, and sustainable. Aesthetics is not enough for a home to be appealing to today’s home buyer, it has to fit their life style. Additionally, home buyers want efficient systems in their new homes that can help save on utility costs.

Home sale renovations should focus on functionality and livability

What projects will get buyers who will pay top dollar into your home? It should be no surprise that the number one interior project, listed by the 2017 Remodeling Impact Report, is a complete kitchen renovation. Other essential interior projects include renovating bathrooms, installing new wood flooring, creating a new master suite, replacing the HVAC system, and finishing a basement or attic.

It also shouldn’t be a surprise that the Report listed replacing the roof as the top exterior project. Other exterior projects in high demand include new windows, new garage door, new siding, and installing a new front door.

If you want to add value to your home, even if it’s not for home sale renovations, check the 2018 Cost vs. Value report (costvsvalue.com). The report can give you insight to which remodeling projects are the most popular, and estimates how much of the cost you can potentially reclaim when you sell your home.

There’s no doubt that renovating your home can be expensive. Although the costs of home sale renovations can tempt you to cut corners, don’t. Cutting corners on renovation projects can actually cost you more. You may have to repair, or even re-do the project if not finished adequately. Home buyers are savvy, and can spot low quality materials and poor workmanship.

Also, make sure to get permits when required. If the home buyer doesn’t ask you, the home inspector will likely recommend that the home buyer check for permits.

Although many homeowners don’t mind a DIY project, many hire home improvement professionals. When hiring home improvement professionals, check with the Maryland Home Improvement Commission (dllr.state.md.us/license/mhic) to ensure they are licensed contractors. You should also ask for proof of their insurance, including Workman’s Comp insurance, in case there is an accident on your property while completing the project.

If you hire a contractor who will accept payment when the house sells, read your contract carefully and thoroughly. Do your due diligence. There may be provisions in your contract that you may not be aware of, such as added costs, charging interest, and setting/lowering the sale price.

Original article is published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2018/11/17/home-sale-renovations

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