Skepticism increases 1.3% on conflicting housing data

by Dan Krell © 2012
DanKrell.com

housing dataWhen the National Association of Realtors® announced last week that April’s existing home sales increased 3.4% to an annually adjusted rate of 4.62 million compared to a downwardly revised 4.47 million in March (http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2012/05/april-existing-home-sales-up-prices-rise-again), I have to admit I was a bit skeptical. The local market is not exactly humming along, so as I read in the above referenced NAR release that April’s existing home sales rose 10% over the figure from April 2011, I thought some perspective is needed.

Let me quote you some housing statistics. The number of Montgomery County single family homes that sold increased 5.1% in February, 14.7% in March, 33.9% in April and 27.9% in May (MRIS data reported by the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors®; gcaar.com). These numbers are not from 2012; but rather, these are the local stats from 2010 compared to closings from 2009. Yes, as you remember – 2010 was a spectacular year for local real estate!

Sarcasm aside, the number of Montgomery County single family home closings increased 5.8% during April 2012 (compared to 2011); and the number of Montgomery County condo closings also increased 8.1% during the same time. But, Montgomery County year-to-date settlements are still below the number of settlements that occurred during the same time in 2011 (-1.4% for single family homes; and -2.8% for condos). Although the 690 single family home settlements that occurred in April 2012 is higher than 652 that occurred in April 2011, the 2,034 single family home settlements that occurred year-to-date through April 2012 is lower than the 2,062 settlements that occurred the same period in 2011. Regardless, the number of settlements is far lower than what we have seen in past “normal” markets (for example, GCAAR reported that there were 849 settlements of Montgomery County single family homes in April 2001).

It must be noted that although the first half of 2010 seemed to be on a role, the number of 2010 Montgomery County single family home closings actually ended the year slightly lower than 2009. So, even though we have a month of some positive news, let’s be cautious about making assumptions.

housing dataOk, I know you’re going to ask about NAR’s statements about rising home sales. Sure, NAR chief economist, Lawrence Yun, was reported to say that “the housing recovery was underway.” He was also quoted to say, “A return of normal home buying for occupancy is helping home sales across all price points, and now the recovery appears to be extending to home prices…”

However, the latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (May 29th; standardandpoors.com) states “that all three headline composites ended the first quarter of 2012 at new post-crisis lows.” Although there was a 1.6% decrease in home prices in the Washington DC metropolitan area in February compared to January, there was a 1% increase in March compared to February; however, prices have decreased 0.6% for the year.

Although media headlines shout that housing has turned a corner, it’s a little premature to assume that the housing market has normalized with only one month’s data. The housing market has turned so many corners in recent years that I think we’ve made several circles! Just as in 2010, let’s see the final tally. There’s still some data to collect; let’s see how the housing market fares through the remainder of the summer.

More news and articles on “the Blog”
This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of May 28, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism Detector

A continuation of a bifurcated market or signs of stability?

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index was released last week, revealing a reduced decline of annual data in the composite 10 and composite 20 indices. The Washington DC metro area index showed a slight decrease of home process from December 2009 through January 2010; although showed an increase of 3.5% compared to the same time a year ago.

The index compiles and tracks home price data in twenty metro regions across the country. The data has been the “gold standard” of home price indicators for many years. However, the index revealed last fall and winter the emerging trend- the two tier market. Does the existing peak to valley ratio of the index indicate an ongoing trend of the two tier market, having distressed properties selling for much less than owner re-sales? Or is it an indicator that price differences between distressed properties and owner re-sales are becoming less significant?

As the spring market is gearing up, many home owners are preparing to list (or re-list) their homes for sale hoping for a chance to get top dollar; many home owners have decided to wait until conditions are better for them. However, those selling have most likely come to terms with the fact that home prices are on average equivalent to 2004/2003 home prices. Many are eager to see if last August’s “bump” in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index was aberrant due to a slumped market or a trend of the bifurcated market.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2010

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.