Category: housing market

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Real Estate in review 2011

Since the housing downturn, optimistic predictions the real estate market have been forecasted annually. However, what we have seen in retrospect is that home buyer incentives along with other housing stimulus measures have only acted to maintain an ailing housing sector from deteriorating further. Some still await the market bottom. And although 2011 revealed additional weaknesses in global economic systems as well as the unintentional consequences of policy and regulation, 2011 felt as if it was the most optimistic year in real estate since the downturn.

2011 will be remembered as the year that the National Association of Realtors (NAR) revised existing home sales down 14.3% for estimates between 2007 and 2010 (data released on December 21, 2011 and available on realtor.org). Regardless of the re-benchmarking of data, the NAR has announced that existing home sales in 2011 continue to strengthen as November’s data indicates increased sales from the previous year (really?).

2011 was not the year for home price gains, however. Home prices continued to decline nationwide. However, the Washington DC and Detroit metro areas were the only two regions that posted positive home price gains from the previous year according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

2011 was the year that housing finance reform continued to crawl forward, while Wall Street reform seemed to move quickly with the passage of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Although Dodd-Frank seemed to be focused squarely on Wall Street, it appeared to be far reaching with the requirements such as the 20% down payment Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM).

2011 will be remembered as the year that the Eurozone almost collapsed. The financial déjà-vu that played out over the summer (and is still yet totally resolved, mind you), threatened markets worldwide- including the U.S. housing market. The sharp economic decline, that some braced for, was averted.

2011 was the year that we saw a bifurcated market become increasingly significant. The upper-bracket/luxury home market appeared to stabilize ahead of other housing, as upper-bracket/luxury housing activity remained strong. In fact two of the most expensive homes in Washington, DC sold this year! Reports that Evermay, the DC mansion that was originally listed for $49 Million, sold for $22 Million in July; while Halcyon House was reported to sell a couple of months later for $12.5 Million.

Regardless of the continued efforts of government preparedness campaigns (remember the Center for Disease Control “Zombie Apocalypse” preparedness campaign on blogs.cdc.gov?); 2011 will be remembered as the year that nature made a point about preparedness. If you weren’t concerned about preparing for the Mayan 2012 prophecy; then enduring hurricanes, floods and an earthquake probably had you at least checking your homeowners’ insurance.

As foreclosures declined in 2011, it seemed as if reports of mortgage lender abuses increased. Lenders appeared to be under fire from class action lawsuits as well as attorneys general for lending practices and foreclosure procedures; Bank of America recently reportedly settled a lawsuit for $335 Million.

Alas, the year is almost over; having us searching for fond memories of 2011 and wondering what will 2012 bring. Some look for home prices to make some gains in the coming year (homepricefutures.com), however more importantly you can probably expect the housing market to be glamorized in the pomp and circumstance of the election cycle of 2012.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

by Dan Krell
© 2011

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Post-crisis real estate: What’s in store for the housing market?

by Dan Krell
© 2011
DanKrell.com

It is often said that history repeats itself. If we want a glimpse of our future, we should look to the past; if we want to see how a post-crisis housing market looks like, we should look to see how a previous housing crisis ended.

According to the Census Bureau (census.gov), the last time homeownership rates declined was 1980-1990. Recent seasonally adjusted homeownership rates have been declining slowly from the all time high of 69.2% reached in the first quarter of 2005. The current seasonally adjusted homeownership rate (for the third quarter of 2011) is 66.1%, which is similar to the homeownership rate of 66.2% reported by the 2000 Census.

Although the country is dealing with some of the same economic issues that was problematic during the early 1980’s; the current real estate market is more akin to like the post S&L crisis of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, when the market was flooded with foreclosures and a coinciding recession impeded an already difficult housing market. Some may remember that during that time home prices decreased and, not unlike recent events, many home owners walked away from their homes (some lenders were sent the keys of recently purchased homes).

Then like today, resulting legislation changed the lending landscape in an effort to ensure such systemic abuse and failure would not happen again. The Census reported that the homeownership rate in 1990 was 64.2%, just shy of the 64.4% homeownership rate reported in 1980.

Additionally, mortgage interest rates were “normalized” post the S&L crisis, making homeownership more affordable than the previous decade. Then, like today, low mortgage rates are touted to make owning a home more attractive than renting.

Also, like that time, the real estate business was changing. Besides changing business models (buyer agency was becoming recognized across the country), large real estate brokers downsized and/or absorbed brokers wanting to get out of the business. Today’s real estate business models have changed to accommodate technology and a vast array of information; additionally, national and regional brokers may begin to see their market share change with the marketplace.

Demographics are always changing. Current demographics indicate a shrinking pool of willing home buyers and sellers. As home prices have dropped over the last several years, many baby boomers who planned to downsize cannot afford to sell their home; additionally, “move-up” home buyers have also decided to make do with their current home longer than they planned as they find that their home’s equity has diminished. Many renters are choosing to continue renting as homeownership is viewed as an anchor; they prefer to be more mobile and not tied down by homeownership until they become more established in their careers.

Before home prices can stabilize, many expect average home prices to drop another 20%. Home prices have (more or less) historically returned to an established “norm” after a housing boom. Home prices are about 26% higher than the “norm” adjusted price, which was established in 1890 as reported by Robert Shiller (Irrational Exuberance; Broadway Books 2nd edition, 2005).

As we move forward, economic and industry related barriers continue to prevent a recovery in the real estate sector. It may be several years before these issues may be managed; however once addressed, confidence in homeownership may begin to increase once again instilling pride and sense of community.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of December 12, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

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Will inflation help the housing market: how real estate is affected

by Dan Krell
© 2011
DanKrell.com

Homes for saleMany people believe that as inflation increases, home values decrease. The argument put forth is that as purchasing power decreases, so do the value of your assets.  However, some economists say that it is flawed thinking to assume that housing, like other goods, decline in value as inflation increases.

Collin Barr reported that Yale economist Robert Shiller (coauthor of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index) has spent years collecting data that indicates “that house prices over time tend to rise more or less in step with inflation” (fortune.com: Why house prices will keep falling; March 29, 2011). That’s all well and good, except that home prices far exceeded the rate of inflation during the recent “bubble years;” and is reported as still having a 25% gap from baseline. So, unless we see an increasing rate of inflation, some believe that home prices drop another 20%.

Brian Summerfield, Online Editor of REALTOR® Magazine, describes (in an April 5th Realtor.org blog post) a scenario of how inflation can lift the current housing market. By highlighting affordability, he explains the cost of housing is currently cheaper to own a home (compared to renting). Additionally, as inflation creeps up and eats more of the family budget by decreasing buying power, the a person’s housing budget will be pressured by rising rents and buying a home will be increasingly more attractive.

Of course, Mr. Summerfield’s scenario is hinged on several “caveats”: interest rates will have to remain relatively low (he says no higher than 7%); implementation of “accessible” 30 year fixed mortgage programs; housing supply will have to remain low; and no additional economic crises.

In several Realtor.org blog posts, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors®, discussed inflation and housing. In an April 18th post he explained that “Unexpected inflation” does erode savings, however actually benefits borrowers. Additionally, in a September 15th post reporting that housing starts are the lowest since World War II, Yun explains that some investors are returning to undervalued real estate as a hedge against inflation. Since new housing is not on track with population growth, some believe there will be a housing shortage that will cause increased demand in coming years.

House for saleThe reality is that although there is a relationship between home prices and inflation, it does not signify causality. In other words, although one may have an effect on the other, housing and inflation are independent. Even in Brian Summerfield’s scenario, he is cautious to provide conditions to bring his vision to reality. And no one has talked about the affects of stagflation.

When talking about a recovery, the typical homeowner should remain cautious- especially in espousing a view that a home is an investment vehicle. Even though our consumer oriented society has encouraged people to pay for their lifestyles with their home’s equity, it’s now widely decried as irresponsible.

In light of the current economic conditions, many potential home buyers are becoming more pragmatic as well. Even though the basic benefits of homeownership include affordability, community, etc, many potential home buyers view owning a home as anchor that will keep them tied to a specific area. And in a time when jobs are scarce, many people want the freedom of mobility in case they have a career opportunity elsewhere.

Will inflation help the real estate market? We will only know in hindsight.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of November 28, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

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Attitudes towards business and the housing market

Everyone seems to be fixated on resolving the housing market through direct intervention. However, it is increasingly apparent that people are forgetting the symbiotic economic system that housing belongs. Even local attitudes towards business may affect local housing markets.

First let’s consider housing data reported for October 2011 by Real Estate Business Intelligence, LLC and Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), which indicates that sold prices for homes in Montgomery County decreased 3.2% compared to September 2011 and decreased 6.5% compared to October 2010 (the same time last year). And although sold prices for homes in Loudon and Fairfax counties decreased from October 2011 compared to the previous month, the median sold price for these two Virginia counties increased compared to October 2010 (an increase of 2.5% and 2.3% respectively).

Maybe Donald Trump knows something we don’t; the high profile real estate investor purchased a Loudon County golf course in 2009, and more recently a Charlottesville winery.

Next consider that some high profile companies have been making their preferences clear, as they choose Virginia over Maryland. Anita Kumar reported in her October 27th Washington Post blog (McDonnell, pursuing Lockheed Martin, says Maryland is less friendly to business) that Maryland has lost two defense contractors to Virginia. And recently, Virginia is trying to persuade Lockheed Martin (one of Montgomery County’s largest employers) to move there too; this courtship became widely publicized after a brouhaha erupted when the Montgomery County Council considered passing a resolution asking Congress to cut defense spending in favor of social spending. Additionally, Steve Contorno of the Washington Examiner reported just last week (McDonnell woos Bechtel Corp. away from Maryland; 11/17/2011) that the “International construction and engineering giant Bechtel Corporation” will move its global operations headquarters from Frederick to Reston.

Another consideration is the demographic change in Montgomery County, which may be one of the main reasons for big-box retailer Wal-Mart wanting to expand within the county. Reported by Carol Morello and Ted Mellnik of the Washington Post (Incomes fall in Montgomery and Fairfax counties; September 22, 2011), the once considered “posh” county now has a lower median income than Prince William County, VA, which is home to Potomac Mills Outlet Mall.

As the housing solution continues to elude many, along comes the National Association of Realtors (realtor.org) publicizing a “2011 Five Point Housing Solutions Plan.” The plan is a result of a policy meeting (New Solutions for America’s Housing Crisis ) conducted by the Progressive Policy Institute (progressivepolicy.org) and Economic Policies for the 21st Century (economics21.org).

Looking more like a “five point housing suggestion,” NAR’s plan offers these recommendations: 1) Not to weaken housing any further; 2) Support communities by reducing foreclosures; 3) Open mortgage markets to “foster new demand among responsible homebuyers”; 4) Support for a secondary mortgage market with government participation; and 5) A call for a national housing summit to “articulate a new housing policy.”

Much like a doctor’s patient seeking pain relief caused by a systemic problem, housing relief through direct intervention may only be temporary. Although some have found the solution to a faltering housing market and other economic ailments tied to jobs, others continue to be confounded by the issue.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

by Dan Krell. Copyright © 2011

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The housing solution trap

When we’re feeling pain or anguish, immediate relief is often sought. So, it would make sense that, when we’re feeling pinched financially, a short term money fix might help. However, quick fixes don’t always address the underlying issues that precipitated or contribute to the problem.

According to recent reports, Americans are increasingly “feeling” the pain as the economy continues to stagger amid volatile financial markets and gloomy housing reports. The Misery Index, which can be construed as a quantitative measure of “pain” associated with an economy, was recently reported to have risen to its highest levels in 28 years. (Introduced in the 1960’s, the Misery Index is found by adding the unemployment rate to the rate of inflation. Obviously, the lower the index – the better.)

So it should come as no surprise that as the push for a jobs bill continues the focus has once again turned to the housing market. This week, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA.gov) announced that the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) will be “enhanced” to accommodate more under-water home owners.

When the program was initiated in 2009, the intention was to assist the refinancing of home owners whose home values declined. It was estimated that it would assist millions of home owners. However, as has been widely reported recently, only about 900,000 home owners have been helped; and of those home owners, about 72,000 are under-water.

Seeking immediate relief for home owners, HARP’s eligibility requirements have become the center of attention. This week’s announcement to remove the “impediments” to refinancing is expected to increase the pool of home owners seeking refinancing of underwater mortgages.

HARP’s initial eligibility requirements included: having a mortgage guaranteed by Fannie Mar or Freddie Mac; the mortgage must not be an FHA, VA, or USDA loan; mortgage payments are current and payments must not have been more than 30 days late in the last year; the first mortgage amount must not exceed 125% of the home’s value; the refinance should improve the long-term affordability of the mortgage; and you’re able to make the new payments.

The new HARP guidelines announced by FHFA this week include lowering or eliminating certain borrower fees, removing the 125% loan to value ceiling, and extending the program to December 31, 2013.

In addition to helping already stressed home owners, it is expected that the money saved on mortgages will be pumped back into the economy. However, critics say that the revised guidelines will do little, if anything, to address the wider problem that exists in the housing market. Additionally, some critics point to the added burden on an already troubled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

So, if the recent adjustment to HARP won’t do much for the housing market, as critics point out; what is the solution? Short term fixes may immediately reduce the pain. However, there should be little doubt that housing and employment are closely linked. Aside from monetary policy that might focus on flattening inflation; addressing long term sustainable economic growth, along with an expansion of permanent full time employment is the key to reviving the housing market.

Nothing feels better than taking pain away quickly and effortlessly. However, like many deep seated problems, the solution may very well lie in a long term plan that may require feeling some pain along the way.

by Dan Krell
© 2011

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice.  Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

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