Category: Real Estate Market

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Buyer and seller expectations can affect real estate sales

by Dan Krell
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DanKrell.com
© 2013

Home SalesBuyer and seller expectations can affect the housing market

Recent positive housing news has raised expectations for many home sellers, but not for some home buyers who are looking for a great deal. This combination of seller and buyer expectations can make for an interesting spring market.

Expectations, much like beliefs, are influenced by your experiences as well as information to which you’re exposed. A combination of media reports and stories by relatives, friends, and co-workers could create an expectation about the home buying process that could be practical or unrealistic.

Regardless of your expectations, the home selling/buying process is full of pitfalls and surprises. If you’re not prepared, your expectations could set you up for disappointment. Of the many components of the sale/purchase process, the highest expectations are typically placed on pricing and the home inspection.

Home sellers obviously want to sell their home for the highest price. News of low inventory and increasing average home sale prices nationally and regionally would lead you to believe that your home could fetch a higher price. Of course, expectations of a higher price should be reality checked with factual neighborhood data.

Home buyers, on the other hand, want to buy a perfect home and feel as if they bought for a good price. For many buyers, stories of homes purchased at serious discounts are fresh in their memories and may set an unrealistic expectation. Once again, factual data can be a reality check; and depending on the neighborhood, savvy negotiation could be warranted. For example, buyers are encountering fierce competition (not unlike the market just before the financial crisis) in some neighborhoods. And although home buyers are rushing to see homes recently added to the inventory, many are not interested in paying the list price. And although some homes are getting multiple offers, many are not. And of those receiving multiple offers, many of those offers are below list price.

Additionally, appraisals can be an issue too; buyers and sellers alike typically expect that the home appraises for the contract price. If not properly prepared, some home sellers can react to low appraisals by initially finding fault with the appraiser’s comparables and methodology, as well as wanting the buyer to pay the balance; while home buyers may experience increased uncertainty and doubt about their purchase.

High expectations are typically had for the home inspection by all. Home sellers who put forth the effort to prepare their home for a sale, often spending money for updates and upgrades, expect the home inspection to reveal a perfect home. If not prepared, the seller can become headstrong when confronted with an inspection that is other than exemplary. Buyers wanting a perfect home may also be demanding of even inconsequential repairs to be made by the seller.

Buyers and sellers sometimes choose to work with agents who offer promise to meet their sometimes unrealistic expectations, only to be let down by the reality of the sale/purchase process.

Veteran real estate agents often appreciate the novelty of each real estate transaction, due to the ever changing market, circumstances of the transaction, as well as the personalities of the parties involved. Your real estate agent can help you set the tone of your expectations; an experienced and skillful real estate agent can prepare you for the ups and downs of the selling/buying process by reframing your expectations to fit the reality of your neighborhood housing market.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published the week of March 25, 2013. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

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Pricing your home to sell 2013

by Dan Krell
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DanKrell.com
© 2013

home for saleIt has been a while since home sellers have felt optimism about the housing market. Although many would be home sellers continue to wait before jumping into the market; a combination of inventory shortages and reports of appreciating home prices are making some home sellers push the limits of home pricing.

Consideration for an appropriate list price is vital in any market. However, regardless of current market conditions, setting the right list price today could prove challenging. If your home sells quickly, you might feel as if you priced the home too low; while setting the price to high could make your home languish in an otherwise active real estate market.

Since the home seller decides on the list price, you might be tempted to use the most recent neighborhood sale or list price as a guide for your home sale. However, without deeply examining these comparables, this methodology may result in over or under pricing your home.

As public information is widely available on the internet, you might find yourself searching the ‘net for recent neighborhood sales to assist you in making a decision on a list/sale price. However, public records usually post dates of deed transfers as recorded in the courthouse, which are usually after the actual closing (sometimes several months or more).  Additionally, public record home descriptions can sometimes contain incorrect or outdated data on home interiors and living area. Relying solely on data found on the internet could make you miss out on more recent and significant sale comps –again possibly leading you to under/over price your home.

For relevant comparables, ask your real estate agent to prepare a market analysis based on comps found in the local MLS (which contains real-time data). Although the market analysis is not an appraisal, its purpose is to assist home buyers and sellers in deciding on a list/sale price. An experienced agent preparing a market analysis will search for comparables that are most similar to your home by considering home factors such as: location, type, style, size, age, condition, interior amenities, exterior amenities, room count, basement, updates, etc.

Additionally, since the comparables used in the market analysis are as analogous to your home as possible, finding recent comps within your neighborhood are ideal not only because of the proximity to your home, but also because homes within the same subdivisions usually have many similarities (including age, style, lot size, upgrades, additions, as well as functional obsolescence).

Even though many home sellers are optimistic about home prices, you could still encounter appraisal issues. Appraisals are opinions of value by an independent party typically requested by lenders to verify the home’s market value in underwriting a home buyer’s mortgage application. And although appraisers use a standard methodology to derive a market value, some appraisers may exercise caution and seek the conservative value in ensuring the appraisal meets the loan guidelines. Issues can also arise when the assigned appraiser is unfamiliar with your neighborhood and surrounding area.

Pricing a home to sell has been described as a skill by some and an art form by others. Deciding on an appropriate list price not only establishes buyers’ expectations for an offer, it can also set the tone for a smooth sale or a bumpy protracted ride in the marketplace.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published the week of March 11, 2013. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

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Is recent housing bubble news cause for alarm

by Dan Krell

DanKrell.com
© 2013

real estate bubbleIf I said that we could experience another housing bubble, you might be concerned for my mental health.  But a couple of years ago I wrote about an impending housing shortage, which could spark another bubble similar to what occurred during 2004-2005.  The market-conditions similarities between 2004 and today are foreboding, if not intriguing. (Dan Krell © 2013)

There hasn’t been talk of a housing shortage since 2004; but looking at Montgomery County MD as an example, you might begin to see similarities between the housing bubble of 2005-2006 and today’s real estate market.

Monthly peek single family inventory in Montgomery County did not exceed 2,000 total active units in 2004; while the absorption rate was reported by the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors® (GCAAR.com) to be about 80% during the winter of 2004.  During the following year, the winter active inventory greatly increased and the absorption rates dropped to about 40%.  The result was a housing market that reached critical mass, and a one year appreciation rate of about 18% for Montgomery County single family homes; which played a key role in the rampant real estate speculation in 2005-2006.

Active housing inventory has been declining since 2010; the greatest decrease occurring during 2012.  According to the monthly home sale statistics posted on the GCAAR website (GCAAR.com), there were 1813 active single family inventory units for sale in Montgomery County during January 2012.  And although active single family units peaked for the year during the spring of 2012, active inventory dwindled to a low of 1198 active units for sale during January 2013 – a year over year decrease of about 40%. Additionally, the absorption rate of listed homes for sale is rapidly approaching 60%

Add the home price facet – on March 5th, CoreLogic (corelogic.com) reported that national home prices increased 9.7% during January 2013, as compared to January 2012.  This was reported to be the greatest year of year home price increase since 2006.

An additional and telling similarity between the pre-bubble years and present is the number of real estate investors jumping in to cash in on distressed properties.  Of course at the height of the real estate bubble of 2004-2006, real estate investing was transformed from the traditional “rehab and flip” to no rehab and flipping properties as quickly as possible.   A great number of homes sold today are to investors, either to rehab or to rent.

In 2004, like today, we were about three years post recession; albeit the recession of 2001 was not as protracted as the “Great Recession.”  At that time, like today, the Federal Reserve funds rate was historically low.

Although an “easy money” monetary policy is another similarity between the periods, a major difference is the availability of mortgage money.  Getting a mortgage is much more difficult today than it was in 2004-2005.  Buying a home without a down payment as well as qualifying for a mortgage without documenting income could have been a factor of the wide spread real estate speculation of 2005-2006.  Today, as a result of the bursting of the 2005-2006 housing bubble, underwriting qualifications are more demanding as are down payment requirements.

The housing bubble phenomenon is not a new or a recent experience; housing bubbles have occurred in the past and most likely will occur in the future.  When they occur, housing bubbles seem to coincide with a recessionary cycle.  And just like recessions, housing bubbles vary in duration and severity.  Sure, another housing bubble may be looming; but the next bubble may be confined to specific regions of the country, and possibly some local neighborhoods.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

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Has the housing market improved in the last four years

Dan Krell, Realtor®
DanKrell.com
© 2012

HousingIn retrospect, the beginning of the global recession in late 2007 was the end of the housing boom and may have spawned the foreclosures crisis and the financial crisis of 2008.  And although this period of time will undoubtedly become the basis of many future dissertations examining the “Great Recession;” you might ask “how much has the state of housing improved since 2008?”

If you recall, the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA) was anticipated to have wide reaching changes in the mortgage and housing industries as well as supposed to have assisted struggling home owners.  This multifaceted piece of legislation consolidated many individual bills addressing issues that were thought to either be the cause or the result of the financial crisis.  Besides raising mortgage loan limits to increase home buyer activity, the historic legislation was the beginning of changes meant to “fix” Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as “modernizing” FHA to make the mortgage process easier for home buyers and refinancing easier for struggling home owners. Additionally, this law was the origination of the Hope for Homeowners program to assist home owners facing foreclosure (www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/110/hr3221).

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), originated from HERA, has been the “conservator” of the then sinking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Since the FHFA took control, there has been conjecture as to what would become of the mortgage giants: some talked about closing their doors, while some talked about changing their role in the mortgage industry. Since FHFA became the oversight agency, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has strengthened their role in maintaining liquidity in the housing market by helping struggling home owners with their mortgages as well as freeing up lender capital by the continued purchases of loans (fhfa.gov)

The inception of Hope for Homeowners was the beginning of a string of government programs designed to assist home owners facing foreclosure, or assist underwater home owners refinance their mortgage.  Although there have been individual success stories, there has been criticism that these programs did not assist the expected numbers of home owners.  A January 24th CNNMoney article by Tami Luhby (money.cnn.com) reported that “…the HAMP program, which was designed to lower troubled borrowers’ mortgage rates to no more than 31% of their monthly income, ran into problems almost immediately. Many lenders lost documents, and many borrowers didn’t qualify. Three years later, it has helped a scant 910,000 homeowners — a far cry from the promised 4 million…” and “HARP, which was intended to reach 5 million borrowers, has yielded about the same results. Through October, when it was revamped and expanded, the program had assisted 962,000…” (money.cnn.com/2012/01/24/news/economy/Obama_housing/index.htm).

HousingDespite the recent slowdown in foreclosure activity, there is disagreement about the projected number of foreclosures going into 2013.  A March 29th Corelogic news release (www.corelogic.com/about-us/news/corelogic-reports-almost-65,000-completed-foreclosures-nationally-in-february.aspx) reported that there have been about 3.4 million completed foreclosures since 2008 (corelogic.com).  And although an August 9th RealtyTrac® (www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/july-2012-us-foreclosure-market-report-7332) report indicated a 3% decrease from June to July and a 10% decrease from the previous year in foreclosure filings; July’s 6% year over year increase in foreclosure starts (initial foreclosure filings) was the third straight month of increases in foreclosure starts.

So, if you’re wondering if housing is better off today than it was four years ago, the answer may be a resounding “maybe;” It all depends on your situation.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of September 3 , 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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Perceptions of U.S. housing boosted by international investors

by Dan Krell ©2012
DanKrell.com

border signA June 11th report by the National Association of Realtors® discussed how international home buyers are an increasingly important segment of the U.S. housing market (realtor.org). The NAR release, “International Sales Continue to Climb in U.S. Market, Realtors® Report,” indicated that the dollar volume of U.S. homes bought by foreign home buyers increased about $16.1 billion over the last year. As encouraging as this may sound, there’s more to the story than you might imagine.

Interestingly, the report stated that average price paid for a U.S. home by an international home buyer is $400,000; and 30% of the homes purchased were priced between $250,000 and $500,000. Because foreign home buyers typically find it difficult to obtain a mortgage, it was reported that 62% of the purchases were cash deals. The NAR report stated that although many of these home purchases were for primary residences, a majority of international home buyer purchases were for vacation and investment uses.

Would you believe that 55% of international home buyers originated from Canada, China, United Kingdom, Mexico, and India? Canada accounted for the largest number of foreign home buyers (24%), followed by China (11%), the U.K. and Mexico (6% each).

But before you decide to learn a new language, you should note that four states have received the most attention from these home buyers; Florida, Arizona, California, and Texas “accounted for 51% of the purchases.” Of these sales, Florida accounted for 26% of all foreign home purchases, and California coming in second with 11% of foreign purchaser sales.

This market segment is not a new phenomenon; international home buyers have participated in the U.S. housing market for a long time. It just seems as if this segment of home buyers has been stronger during economic turmoil (Are you old enough to remember the influx of Middle East investors during the 1970’s and Japanese investors during the 1980’s?). The increasing number of international home buyers investing in the housing market is a tribute to the perceived value of U.S. real estate.

By the way, the influence of international sales has not gone unnoticed by Congress either. In an effort to help stimulate this sector of the housing market, S. 1746: Visa Improvements to Stimulate International Tourism to the United States of America Act was introduced in October 2011, by Senators Charles Schumer [D., N.Y.] and Mike Lee [R., Utah], and H.R. 3341: Visa Improvements to Stimulate International Tourism to the United States of America Act, was introduced in November 2011 by Rep. Mazie Hirono [D-HI2] and Rep. David Dreier [R-CA26]). These bills offered resident visas to foreign investors who invested at least $500,000 in U.S. real estate. However, some have criticized such stimulus as an empty gesture because international home buyers may not need additional incentive to purchase homes in the U.S.

Will foreign home buyers save the housing market, as a U.S. News and Report piece suggested (October 28, 2011)? Unlike the clichéd climax of a dramatic film noire, when the foreign investor saves the day, the answer may be “yes” and “no”. Although housing is receiving an increased amount of attention from foreign investors, it is unlikely that the increased activity itself would save the U.S. housing market. However, the increased foreign investment in U.S. housing may boost the perceived value of housing and the perception of home ownership.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of June 18, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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