Category: real estate

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Grading the housing market on a curve – how housing stats can be misleading

Dan Krell, Realtor®
DanKrell.com
© 2012

Home Sale StatisticsDid your teacher ever grade on a curve, where test scores are “weighted” based on the lowest and/or highest score in the class? The typical explanation for such statistical manipulation of raw test scores is to create a distribution where classmates are compared to each other, rather than how well they actually score on the usual grading scale.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) August 22nd news release titled “Existing-Home Sales Improve in July, Prices Continue to Rise” at first glance might seem good news, but after a deeper look the news may not be as promising. The release states that the July’s total existing home sales increased 2.3% in July from June, based on July’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.47 million compared to June’s 4.37 million (realtor.org).

Although the adjusted data may have indicated a significant increase in existing home sales, the raw data may suggest something different. If you follow the links on the NAR’s press release through the website, you’ll find yourself at the page titled, “Existing Home Sales” (realtor.org/topics/existing-home-sales/data): where you’ll find a links to home sale data – which includes the “seasonally adjusted annual rate” and “not seasonally adjusted” stats.

Although July’s “seasonally adjusted annual rate” of existing home sales indicated a 2.3% increase over June’s “seasonally adjusted annual rate;” the “not seasonally adjusted” rate (e.g., the raw sales data) indicated that there was a 7.3% DECREASE in existing home sales in July compared to June, and a year to date increase of existing home sales of only 2.647%.

So, what’s the difference between “seasonally adjusted” and “not seasonally adjusted” data? Well, for that explanation, we need to follow the links to the methodology (realtor.org/topics/existing-home-sales/methodology). “Not seasonally adjusted” data is described as raw data that has been basically scrubbed for errors. However, the site states that “It is necessary to “annualize” and seasonally-adjust the existing home sales data so that month-to-month and quarter-to-quarter comparisons can be observed without seasonal variances distorting the overall picture;” thus the “seasonally adjusted annual rate” may be forward looking figure estimating a rate by which homes are selling.

And of course, many media outlets took the headline and ran with it without explaining the meaning of the “seasonally adjusted annual rate.” July’s figure gives the impression that the housing market has made significant improvement during a month where the actual number of existing homes sales decreased from the previous month. But don’t blame the NAR either: the press release contains links to pages of explanation and data for anyone to take the time to sort through and figure out.

Home Sale StatisticsStatistical analysis can be a good thing, if the statistic is meaningful and is understood. It seems as if everyone already forgot about the criticism that the NAR received last year because they announced a downward revision of existing home sales going back to 2007. If you remember, the main reason given for the revision was for “data drift” that occurred during the housing downturn; and much like other estimate revisions (such as GDP and employment figures) “re-benchmarking” is a common aspect of estimating economic data.

Regardless of what the rate of annual home sales is estimated to be, we’ll know the actual number of existing home sales at the end of the year. And at that time, we can determine what kind of year 2012 has been for housing.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of August 27 , 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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A new wrinkle for eminent domain

Dan Krell, Realtor®
DanKrell.com
© 2012

eminent domainWhen the housing market began its decent in 2007, foreclosures seemed to occur with the frequency not seen since the S&L crisis of the late 1980’s. Since then, negotiating a lower mortgage payment by modifying the mortgage interest rate and/or reducing the principal continues to be difficult for many home owners.

One of the reasons why modifying a mortgage can be difficult is because of the complicated structure of the Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduits (REMIC). A REMIC, is a financial instrument that may have stimulated the wide use of “100% financing” and other high risk mortgages through securitization of mortgages on the secondary market. Although a highly complex structure, a very basic explanation is that the REMIC purchases large pools of mortgages and acts as the trustee for those who own the bonds to which the loans are securitized (mortgage backed securities). Bond holders could be individuals or corporations that may also sell ownership to the bonds as well (e.g., funds, annuities, pension plans). Mortgage modifications in the REMIC environment can be legally complex. Additionally, the inherent complex structure of the REMIC as well as its fiduciary responsibility to its bond holders, makes decisions move at a snail’s pace.

In an effort to assist home owners in their local communities, a few municipalities (most notably San Bernardino County) have considered restructuring mortgages via eminent domain. Eminent domain is the power that government exercises to take private property for public use and pay the owner a “just compensation.” And although eminent domain cases typically involve real property (e.g., land), it may also involve other types of personal property.

Considering that eminent domain is often a contentious topic, you might imagine that there might be some resistance to the condemnation of mortgages by municipalities. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (the FHFA oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) entered a note in the Federal Register on August 9th (“Use of Eminent Domain To Restructure Performing Loans”). The note listed concerns for such practice of eminent domain, among which is a concern that tax payers could ultimately bear the losses incurred from restructuring mortgages through eminent domain. As a result, the FHFA may take action to “avoid a risk to safe and sound operations and to avoid taxpayer expense.”

eminent domainThe Wall Street Journal reported on August 8th (“New Roadblock for Eminent Domain Bid: Housing Regulator”; by Al Yoon) that banking and other related groups are concerned that “stripping loans from investors would create unnecessary losses and reduce the availability of credit.” And, “… the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, or Sifma, has proposed prohibiting loans originated in areas using eminent domain from a key part of the $5 trillion mortgage-backed securities market that is a backbone for U.S. housing finance.”

An article by Rep Brad Miller published in the American Banker on July 11th (“No Wonder Eminent Domain Mortgage Seizures Scare Wall Street”) discussed the impact of eminent domain of mortgages on Wall Street, specifically the four largest banks. Congressman Miller pointed out that there is a cost to lenders holding second mortgages when mortgages are restructured. In particular, the four largest banks, which “hold $363 billion in second liens, very commonly on the same property as first mortgages they service.”

Regardless of the outcome, there is sure to be plenty of posturing; the result may add a new wrinkle in the eminent domain debate.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of August 13 , 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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Post crisis real estate investing

by Dan Krell ©2012
DanKrell.com

horseWatching an interview of Chef Bobby Flay this week, talk about the possibly of buying a horse at the Fasig Tipton Yearling Auction in Saratoga Springs, NY, I heard him say, “I’m actually looking at this like buying a building, literally…it’s like buying a really expensive piece of real estate…”

Well, why not buy that expensive piece of real estate? Some experts are still saying that real estate is still one of the core investment assets. For example: Brad Case, of the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts®, in his June 2011 article in Financial Planning (“School is in”; 41, 3), discussed the importance of real estate as an investment class. Case stated that, real estate is a “basic” investment class. He continued by quoting some of the most influential financial experts on real estate investing: “…Burton Malkiel, the Princeton professor and former member of the Council of Economic Advisors who wrote the famous investing manual, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, said, ‘There are only four types of investment categories that you need to consider: cash, bonds, common stocks and real estate.’ Mark Anson, who led the largest pension funds in both the U.S. (CalPERS) and the U.K. (British Telecom), completely agreed: ‘Equity, fixed income, cash and real estate are the basic asset classes that must be held within a diversified portfolio’…”

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Ann Marsh, in her may 2012 article “Real estate’s rehabilitation” (Financial Planning, 42, 56), also agreed. She stated that not only are financial planners urging their clients to buy into real estate investment trusts (REITs), some planners are urging the “outright” purchase of individual buildings.

Of course, when thinking of real estate investing, most people think about residential real estate – in particular flipping homes or owning rental properties. Investors looking for rental properties tend to look at long term value (appreciation) as well as having a positive cash flow; while home flippers are interested in renovating a home and selling for a quick profit.

commercial real estateResidential real estate is not the only opportunity for investors. Some real estate investors look for deals in commercial buildings; the market downturn has added to the possibilities too. Investors in commercial properties tend to look for development opportunities as well as long term retention.

Another way to invest in real estate is through a real estate investment trust (REIT). The REIT investment structure has been around for many years, and may provide the real estate investor access to investments they might not otherwise purchase on their own. There are many types of REITS, some invest broadly in many types of real estate; while some are focused on specific types of properties (e.g., shopping centers, storage centers, apartments, etc).

Clearly, there are many risks involved in real estate investing. Of course there are financial risks, but there also a time investment required. Additionally: cash flow can become an issue when tenants stop paying rent, or unexpected maintenance issues need attention; rehab or development costs can skyrocket when unexpected obstacles are encountered; and when selling, you may not realize the sale price you initially estimated due to market fluctuations, bad appraisals, etc.

Although some real estate investors are successful; many real estate investors lose money. Before you decide to invest in real estate, you should consult investment, financial, real estate, and other professionals to assist you with the research and due diligence.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of August 6 , 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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Are appraisals hindering a housing recovery

foreclosed home
As the housing market receded, low appraisals seemed to be the rule; lower priced comparables were often to blame. As home sellers and their real estate agents become accustomed to the new market, some within the real estate industry continue to complain that low appraisals are still an issue that interferes with the housing market recovery. Many blame low appraisals for keeping home values down as well as killing pending deals.

A recent article by syndicated columnist Ken Harney (House sales hampered by appraisers who fail to recognize appreciation) brought attention to a growing issue that many claim is impeding a housing market recovery. It is clear that appraisers exercise caution and seek the conservative value, which is to avoid liability for the lender having to buy back a loan that does not comply with guidelines. However, another issue that Harney pointed out was the reliance on appraisal management companies.

If you remember, in response to claims of inflated appraisal values due to lender coercion and “undue influence,” the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) was implemented for mortgages bought by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (then later by FHA). The intention of implementing these new standards of practice was to establish increased accountability and independence in the appraisal industry. One issue that was addressed was to limit communications between the lender and appraiser. As a result, many lenders resorted to using Appraisal Management Companies (AMC) to order and review appraisals.

In rush to meet the new HVCC compliance measures, lenders initially believed they needed to use the AMC to manage appraisals. However, that was not a direct requirement and some lenders have since moved away from using AMCs; subsequently implementing in-house appraisal management systems. Some lenders, however, still rely on the AMC appraisal “middle man” to assign and review appraisals.

Much of the criticism of the AMC is that they are sometimes located quite a distance away from the subject property. Appraisal reviewers who do not have the local experience and data to understand distant markets may make valuation mistakes.

home for sale

Just as quick as the lending industry moved to comply with HVCC, the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction – there are some reports of appraisers being coerced to “revise” appraisal values down. If the value is not considered within the lender’s “guidelines,” the appraiser may be requested to revise the valuation prior to submitting to the lender.

Testimony provided to the House Committee on Financial Services hearings on “Appraisal Oversight: The Regulatory Impact on Consumers and Businesses” (June 28th), Francois (Frank) Gregoir, for The National Association of Realtors®, stated: “There are a myriad of circumstances and issues working to hinder the recovery of the nation’s housing market. Among them… are those related to the credible valuation of real property…However, in today’s world there are many road blocks in the way of valuing property and, as a result, allowing for a healthy recovery of the broader real estate industry. Because there are many roadblocks there is no one, “silver bullet” solution.”

Regardless of where blame lay for low appraisals, the outcome and effect on the housing market is clear: some pending sales are falling out; some home buyers are paying additional funds to cover differences between a low appraisal and contract price; and some sellers are pulling homes off the market.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

by Dan Krell
Copyright © 2012

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Debunking myths about foreclosures, timing the housing market, and hiring the “big name” agent

by Dan Krell ©2012
DanKrell.com

Debunking common real estate myths.

real estate myths debunkingAs a real estate agent, I often encounter people who talk about common and persistent real estate myths.  In recent years, these few seem to be among the top myths:

Myth #1: “If you wait until the market bottoms out, you’ll get the best deal”
Counter point: “People trying to time the market may find in hindsight that they will have reacted either too soon or too late.”

Anderson & Harris, in their reveling study Timing the market: You don’t have to be perfect (Real Estate Issues 35, (3) (10): 42-42-50) indicated that you don’t have to be perfect when timing your purchase and sale of a home.  They suggested that you could do just as well to aim your sale during market peaks and your purchase during market lows; however, they conceded that you would most likely know in hindsight when the market is at a peak or low.

Their results demonstrated that the typical “buy and hold strategy” over a thirty year period results in an annualized return of 8.18%; however, buying when a recession has ended with a predetermined sale period yields a wide range of return that ranged from 13.38% to 1.42% annualized total return.

Myth #2: “Buying a distressed home will result in a good purchase.”
Counter point: “There is inherent risk when purchasing distressed homes.”

There is inherent risk when purchasing distressed homes, regardless if they are foreclosures, bank owned homes, or even short sales.  Although short sales are often occupied, foreclosures and bank owned homes are often vacant for many months; these homes are often sold “as-is; where is” meaning you are purchasing the home regardless of the condition of the home.

Besides the purchase and anticipated fix up costs, unanticipated repairs and expenses are often encountered.  However without risk, there is no reward; due diligence, conducting inspections, and hiring the proper representation may reduce the risk and make your purchase a positive experience.

Myth #3: “The ‘big name’ agent with the most home buyers will sell my home quickest and for top dollar.”
Counter point: “Home buyers typically search for homes by characteristics and location, rather than searching for homes sold by individual agents or brokers.”

real estate myths debunkingI have never had a home buyer tell me they want to see (or buy) a home because it is listed by a particular agent or broker.  Rather, home buyers typically search homes by price, physical characteristics, amenities, and/or location.  Home buyers will view your home if it matches their search criteria, regardless of who listed your home.

When interviewing listing agents, look beyond the sales pitch to list your home, and ask for real data and sources to back up claims.  Agents will often not discuss the homes they could not sell; asking about the homes that did not sell as well as the reasons behind the non-sale may be more revealing than flatly accepting claims made by the agent.  Asking for references of satisfied clients of homes that sold as well as homes that did not sell is useful to not only get a recommendation, but also understand how the agent conducts business.  Ultimately, your home purchase or sale falls upon the experience and skill of the agent you hire. Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism Detector

More news and articles on “the Blog”
This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of July 23 , 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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