Will inflation help the housing market: how real estate is affected

by Dan Krell
© 2011
DanKrell.com

Homes for saleMany people believe that as inflation increases, home values decrease. The argument put forth is that as purchasing power decreases, so do the value of your assets.  However, some economists say that it is flawed thinking to assume that housing, like other goods, decline in value as inflation increases.

Collin Barr reported that Yale economist Robert Shiller (coauthor of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index) has spent years collecting data that indicates “that house prices over time tend to rise more or less in step with inflation” (fortune.com: Why house prices will keep falling; March 29, 2011). That’s all well and good, except that home prices far exceeded the rate of inflation during the recent “bubble years;” and is reported as still having a 25% gap from baseline. So, unless we see an increasing rate of inflation, some believe that home prices drop another 20%.

Brian Summerfield, Online Editor of REALTOR® Magazine, describes (in an April 5th Realtor.org blog post) a scenario of how inflation can lift the current housing market. By highlighting affordability, he explains the cost of housing is currently cheaper to own a home (compared to renting). Additionally, as inflation creeps up and eats more of the family budget by decreasing buying power, the a person’s housing budget will be pressured by rising rents and buying a home will be increasingly more attractive.

Of course, Mr. Summerfield’s scenario is hinged on several “caveats”: interest rates will have to remain relatively low (he says no higher than 7%); implementation of “accessible” 30 year fixed mortgage programs; housing supply will have to remain low; and no additional economic crises.

In several Realtor.org blog posts, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors®, discussed inflation and housing. In an April 18th post he explained that “Unexpected inflation” does erode savings, however actually benefits borrowers. Additionally, in a September 15th post reporting that housing starts are the lowest since World War II, Yun explains that some investors are returning to undervalued real estate as a hedge against inflation. Since new housing is not on track with population growth, some believe there will be a housing shortage that will cause increased demand in coming years.

House for saleThe reality is that although there is a relationship between home prices and inflation, it does not signify causality. In other words, although one may have an effect on the other, housing and inflation are independent. Even in Brian Summerfield’s scenario, he is cautious to provide conditions to bring his vision to reality. And no one has talked about the affects of stagflation.

When talking about a recovery, the typical homeowner should remain cautious- especially in espousing a view that a home is an investment vehicle. Even though our consumer oriented society has encouraged people to pay for their lifestyles with their home’s equity, it’s now widely decried as irresponsible.

In light of the current economic conditions, many potential home buyers are becoming more pragmatic as well. Even though the basic benefits of homeownership include affordability, community, etc, many potential home buyers view owning a home as anchor that will keep them tied to a specific area. And in a time when jobs are scarce, many people want the freedom of mobility in case they have a career opportunity elsewhere.

Will inflation help the real estate market? We will only know in hindsight.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of November 28, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

Take care of your vacant home

real estate for sale

According to a 2009 USA Today report, 1 out of 9 homes are vacant. Although, more so in recent times, “foreclosure” may come to mind when you hear “vacant home;” however, there are other reasons why a home may be vacant, which may include: the home owner bought their new home prior to selling; seasonal travelers head to warmer climates during the winter; job relocation; divorce; or an unsettled estate. Regardless of the reason for leaving your home vacant, making preparations prior to leaving may make your return more welcoming.

Even if your home is listed with a Realtor®, don’t assume that the home will be looked after; take care of your asset and ensure that your vacant home is cared for. Consider having a trusted person in charge of checking the vacant home regularly. Besides collecting un-forwarded mail, this person can take care of issues that may arise while you’re away.

As we are headed into winter, consider winterizing the home. “Winterizing” is jargon that describes the draining of water and pressure from the plumbing system. Experts recommend winterizing your home if you plan leaving your home vacant during the winter months. Winterizing your home may reduce the risk of bursting pipes as well as possibly reducing damage to plumbing fixtures. When winterizing and de-winterizing your home, consider hiring a licensed plumber because you may encounter unexpected high pressure, and the winterizing process may cause increased stress on the plumbing system.

Check the drainage around your home to ensure that water is removed away from the home as intended. Test the sump pump (if you have one) to ensure it is in working order. Blockages from leaves and other debris can build up on the roof and gutters as well as around basement stairwell drains (which are notorious for clogging and may cause a flooded basement). Clogged gutters and drains may cause roof and basement leaks even when a home is lived in; certainly if unattended to, can wreak havoc on your vacant home.

real estate

Cold weather is also a time when pests are seeking a warm shelter; you don’t want to return to the surprise of a home that has been infested with mice, raccoons, or other pests. A licensed pest control expert may be able to assist you in preventing an infestation by searching for and sealing pest related access points.

Theft and vandalism is often a primary concern for vacant home owners. Besides being the target of thieves, vacant homes often become the focus of vandals. Besides ensuring that valuables are safe, make certain that all doors and windows are secure.

Finally, consult with your insurance agent about your home owners’ policy. Don’t assume that you’re covered just because you have insurance. Besides describing what the insurance company deems as “vacant,” many home owners’ policies have coverage limitations when the home is considered vacant. Your insurance agent can assist you in determining if you need additional coverage while you’re away from your home.

Taking care of a vacant home is not only for lenders taking possession of foreclosed homes. Whatever your reason for leaving your home behind this winter, think ahead and take care of your asset. Consider taking preventative measures to keep your home safe and intact as well as arranging for someone to take charge of the home while you’re away.

by Dan Krell
© 2010

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Attitudes towards business and the housing market

Everyone seems to be fixated on resolving the housing market through direct intervention. However, it is increasingly apparent that people are forgetting the symbiotic economic system that housing belongs. Even local attitudes towards business may affect local housing markets.

First let’s consider housing data reported for October 2011 by Real Estate Business Intelligence, LLC and Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), which indicates that sold prices for homes in Montgomery County decreased 3.2% compared to September 2011 and decreased 6.5% compared to October 2010 (the same time last year). And although sold prices for homes in Loudon and Fairfax counties decreased from October 2011 compared to the previous month, the median sold price for these two Virginia counties increased compared to October 2010 (an increase of 2.5% and 2.3% respectively).

Maybe Donald Trump knows something we don’t; the high profile real estate investor purchased a Loudon County golf course in 2009, and more recently a Charlottesville winery.

Next consider that some high profile companies have been making their preferences clear, as they choose Virginia over Maryland. Anita Kumar reported in her October 27th Washington Post blog (McDonnell, pursuing Lockheed Martin, says Maryland is less friendly to business) that Maryland has lost two defense contractors to Virginia. And recently, Virginia is trying to persuade Lockheed Martin (one of Montgomery County’s largest employers) to move there too; this courtship became widely publicized after a brouhaha erupted when the Montgomery County Council considered passing a resolution asking Congress to cut defense spending in favor of social spending. Additionally, Steve Contorno of the Washington Examiner reported just last week (McDonnell woos Bechtel Corp. away from Maryland; 11/17/2011) that the “International construction and engineering giant Bechtel Corporation” will move its global operations headquarters from Frederick to Reston.

Another consideration is the demographic change in Montgomery County, which may be one of the main reasons for big-box retailer Wal-Mart wanting to expand within the county. Reported by Carol Morello and Ted Mellnik of the Washington Post (Incomes fall in Montgomery and Fairfax counties; September 22, 2011), the once considered “posh” county now has a lower median income than Prince William County, VA, which is home to Potomac Mills Outlet Mall.

As the housing solution continues to elude many, along comes the National Association of Realtors (realtor.org) publicizing a “2011 Five Point Housing Solutions Plan.” The plan is a result of a policy meeting (New Solutions for America’s Housing Crisis ) conducted by the Progressive Policy Institute (progressivepolicy.org) and Economic Policies for the 21st Century (economics21.org).

Looking more like a “five point housing suggestion,” NAR’s plan offers these recommendations: 1) Not to weaken housing any further; 2) Support communities by reducing foreclosures; 3) Open mortgage markets to “foster new demand among responsible homebuyers”; 4) Support for a secondary mortgage market with government participation; and 5) A call for a national housing summit to “articulate a new housing policy.”

Much like a doctor’s patient seeking pain relief caused by a systemic problem, housing relief through direct intervention may only be temporary. Although some have found the solution to a faltering housing market and other economic ailments tied to jobs, others continue to be confounded by the issue.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

by Dan Krell. Copyright © 2011

Are internet Realtor® reviews real or fake?

internet Realtor reviews

The internet is a great tool. It conveniently provides access to information about real estate activity and home sales to assist you in your decision making. It’s only natural that people tend to gravitate to the internet because it provides somewhat of a buffer from aggressive real estate agents; it allows a certain amount of anonymity. This may also be a reason for the rise in popularity of internet Realtor® reviews.

But, internet anonymity can be a two way street. Besides reading online what others are saying about your agent, without anyone being the wiser; online reviews are often posted without verification.

An August 19th New York Times article by David Streitfeld (In a Race to Out-Rave, 5-Star Web Reviews Go for $5: Printed August 20, 2011, on page A1 of the New York edition) is an exposé of the fake review business. Yup, fake online reviews. Streitfeld describes how in an effort for online businesses to appear better than the competition, “an industry of fibbers and promoters has sprung up to buy and sell raves for a pittance.” Streitfeld illustrates the “game” as it’s played; posts on websites such as Craigslist and help for hire sites offer a positive review for a fee.

Also known as “deceptive opinion spam” or “review spam, Cornell researchers claim “these fake reviews are fictitious opinions deliberately written to sound authentic, in order to deceive the reader.” They conclude that the detection of fake reviews is “well beyond the capability of human judges;” and recommend an analysis of reviews to include, among other things, psycho-linguistically motivated features. (Proceedings of the 49th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics, pages 309–319, Portland, Oregon, June 19-24, 2011.)

“There have always been fake reviews from employees and competitors,” states Greg Sterling, of Sterling Market Intelligence, in a March 7th blog post “Fighting the Rise of Paid Reviews.” Describing the increase of “guaranteed positive reviews” for a fee, “… the increasing importance of online reputation to consumers and the potential influence on rankings that reviews bring the stakes are higher than ever. Hence the emergence of services that will guarantee positive reviews.” He further states, “I don’t know this but my guess is that somewhere in some room … there are minions writing positive reviews without ever having actually used the business or visited its location.”

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) code of ethics prohibits deceptive practices, which includes posting or encouraging fake reviews. However, Lani Rosales of AGBeat argues that there has always been an element posting fake Realtor® reviews and testimonials (“Sketchy new trend – hiring fake online review writers”).

Internet Realtor reviews

What to do?

Suresh Srinivasan of agent reputation platform ReachFactor (ReachFactor.com) stated in email correspondence that review spam is a “big and growing problem. It’s extremely cheap to pay others …to write a review of any service professional.” He states that many websites get “gamed” because they only require the reviewer to register but don’t actually verify that a transaction took place with the agent. He points out that even though some popular real estate websites try to read every review, it is not entirely effective in weeding out the fake reviews. Mr. Srinivasan’s company verifies factual information collected about Realtors® so as to ensure consumer transparency as well holding Realtors® to a higher ethical standard.

by Dan Krell. Copyright © 2011

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Occupy Main Street; the trouble with greed

by Dan Krell
© 2011
DanKrell.com

What is it about Occupy Wall Street that has everyone talking?  Sure, everyone seemed to be against the bailouts, but it seemed as if there was not much agreement among the protest groups about other issues.  Some expressed anger about capitalism; some were against student loans, while others seemed to focus on debit card fees.  The buzz about OWS has allowed us to define it in our own terms.

While recently sitting in on a continuing education class about fair housing and predatory lending, an OWS discussion begins: the banks’ were responsible for the housing crash and the resulting financial crisis.

The discussion quickly turned into a tirade about the evils the banks would have us do for their gain.  Two agents in the class were clearly angry and claimed that the banks knew what they were doing before the crises ; the banks forced people to take loans they couldn’t afford; the banks need to cut the loan balances to match the market; and the banks need to repay those who lost their homes; and so on.

Of course these two are always entitled to express themselves.  However, I seemed to upset the apple cart by asking a question.  I asked, “Do you feel you contributed to the housing crisis because you sold homes during the years that lead up to the crash?”   They explained they had no way to look into the future and did not have a crystal ball.  I asked, “Did you ever ask the lender to push your client’s debt ratio or get exceptions to underwriting requirements?  There was no answer.  One final question, “Would you return all or some of your commission you earned during that time?”  Thankfully, the instructor got the point and quickly turned our attention back to subject of the class.

It’s not ironic that this conversation comes almost two months after the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) filed 17 suits against issuers of mortgage backed securities.  According to an October 10th editorial in Mortgage Banking, the FHFA is seeking damages on behalf of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  The complaint cites “negligent misrepresentation” in disclosure documentation and “some allege state securities law violations or common law fraud.”

The editorial points out a statement made by Mortgage Bankers Association Chairman Michael Young as understanding the FHFA’s actions to attempt to recoup taxpayer losses tied to the GSEs; however, he “noted responsibility for the mortgage crisis extends far beyond the banks and includes the credit rating agencies, mortgage insurers, borrowers and even the GSEs.”

As time passes, we are increasingly provided new information and facts that allows us the opportunity to have a broader perspective of the housing and financial crises.  Nazneed Ahmed, in a 2010 enlightening essay, Greed, financial innovation or laxity of regulation? (Studies in Economics and Finance, 27(2), 110-110-134.), discusses the mortgage and liquidity crises that affected the US and Global economy.  Using Bernie Madoff as an example of poor financial oversight, he surmises that the liquidity crisis “evolved with the advent of poorly supervised financial products, especially the credit default swaps and subprime mortgage loans.”  The conclusion is that greed that is the root cause.

Like the Greek Sirens, greed entices people to their peril.  From home owners and buyers to Wall Street, greed is the apparent culprit that fueled the crises the evolved from 2007-2009.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of October 31, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.