Category: trends in housing

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Is there a best way to predict the housing market

predicting the real estate marketIf you’re like most home sellers and buyers – you want an edge over your competition.  What better way to get the edge than having a way to predict the market.  If you don’t have a working crystal ball, there are a few methods to forecast and measure housing (some of which have been used in empirical research).

Various studies demonstrate that you can assess and somewhat predict activity in a housing market; which, albeit in hindsight, can assist home sellers and buyers in determining whether it is a good time to sell or buy a home.  For example, I recently wrote about gauging real estate through divorce and premarital agreements; which discussed the implications of these life events to the housing market.  The increase in prenups could indicate an increased perception in the value of home ownership and possibly the overall housing market.

Another recent study indicated that it may be possible to determine home pricing through internet search data.  Beracha and Wintoki (Forecasting Residential Real Estate Price Changes from Online Search Activity; The Journal of Real Estate Research 35.3 (2013): 283-312.) set out to find out if keyword search engine data from Google could determine price shifts in various cities.  They concluded that this may be the first study that directly links “aggregated” search engine data to “abnormal crosssectional home price changes.”

Essentially, the research established that you can figure out metro housing market activity through Google Trends and Google Insights, which provide keyword volume measurement in internet searches.  The study examined the keywords “real estate [city]” from 2004 through 2011, and concluded that “…cities associated with abnormally high real estate search intensity consistently outperform cities with abnormally low real estate search volume by as much as 8.5% over a two-year period.”

And although the study’s authors discussed prior research linking internet keyword searches and consumer behavior, they caution that there are a number of keywords related to real estate that may be more relevant than the keywords used in their study.  Regardless, the authors assume that their results may be useful in home sales and purchases.  More importantly, it may seem as if their results may strengthen the link between specific search engine keywords (e.g, “real estate Rockville” or “real estate Bethesda”) and the ability to predict a housing bubble, or possibly home price peaks.

Generalized, “global” data, such as those described in Beracha and Wintoki’s study, and their meaning may be interesting; however, limiting yourself to such indiscriminate analysis for your home sale or purchase could be disadvantageous.  Global data does not distinguish the many factors that impact regional markets; nor can it sort out differences within a local market (neighborhood data within a region can vary significantly).

Using “global” tools may be useful; however, if you are planning a home sale or purchase – seek out the assistance of a local Realtor®.  Your real estate agent has access to local specific data that is reported through the MLS.  Using MLS data, your agent can prepare a market analysis that compares your home to recent neighborhood sales; the breakdown can put your home in perspective and can give you a price range to assist you in listing or purchasing the home.  Additionally, your agent can provide a hyper-local trend analysis so as to help you understand what to expect from the local housing market.

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by Dan Krell © 2013

Disclaimer.  This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice.  Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction.  Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

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Trending home designs

by Dan Krell
© 2012
DanKrell.com

Trending home designs

You might be amazed if you stopped to think about how much the home has changed over the years. From modest beginnings, when most homes were one or two rooms, the home has transformed from the humble shelter to today’s technological marvel that expresses your personality and popular tastes.

Early home architectural designs were very practical, and may have changed along with heating/cooling innovations. Before the furnace was a standard feature in the home, most homes were built around the fireplace; in very early homes, a central fireplace was where the homeowners cooked their food. Further advances in home design occurred as new building materials were developed; the use of drywall may be responsible for the spread of “tract housing” in the 1940’s and 50’s, as home builders realized they could make homes faster and more affordable.

However, a driving factor in today’s home designs is popularity with home buyers (because that’s what sells of course). The American Institute of Architects (aia.org) conducts the quarterly Home Design Trends Survey to track architectural trends and reveal what home buyers want in their homes. Besides the fact that a wounded housing market reduced the demand for the McMansion, what else is trending?

Economy and energy efficiency design features and appliances have been trending since the financial crisis. Since 2007, there has been a significant increase in demand for high efficiency furnaces, tankless water heaters, and more insulation.

Highlights of the recent Home Design Trends Survey (2nd quarter 2011) reveal how the economy has impacted home design. Most “Special feature rooms” have declined in popularity; except for home offices where people can telecommute, there was a significant decrease in the demand for interior greenhouses, media rooms, interior kennels, safe rooms, kid’s wings, and exercise rooms (demand for au-pair suites has remained steady). Informal living features continue to trend as people are increasingly staying home to entertain themselves and friends; a demand for “home-centered activities” spaces and outdoor living spaces are increasing. Requests for indoor-outdoor transition rooms, such as mudrooms, remain strong.

Special features continue to focus on energy efficiency, as well as increasingly on accessibility. Insulation seems to be a major home buyer focus as extra insulation or the use of alternative insulation techniques are in high demand.

As visitability laws gain momentum nationwide, home accessibility design features have increased in demand. First floor owner suites, height adjusted fixtures (sinks faucets and light switches), ramps, and even elevators have increased in popularity among home buyers.

Technological advances also dictate home buyer preferences. New energy efficient devices continue in popularity as well as low-maintenance products. High performance windows were a top requested item, as were water saving devices. Home buyers are also demanding more low maintenance engineered materials in their homes; such as floors, siding, and decking.
As technology changes, home design is anticipated to change as well. For example, some foresee that the demand for the home office to diminish as wireless communication technologies advance such that people won’t anchor themselves to one room as they work from home.

If you think that trending home design features are only for new homes, think again. Popular design features often filter into older homes as home owners renovate. As a design feature’s popularity increases, so does the chance it can be found at the Home Depot.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of February 6, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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Has the real estate market reached the turning point? (Market statistics and trends)

by Dan Krell

As indicated by the slight increase in the Consumer Confidence Index (ConferenceBoard.org), which edged up in August to 56.9, signs may point to a slightly improving economy. As consumer confidence increases, we may see home sales increase as well. Take for example the Mortgage Bankers Association reporting an increase in mortgage applications (8/27/2008 mortgagebankers.org), as well as the National Association of Realtors (Realtor.org) reporting that nationwide existing home sales have increased 3.1% in July (which is reported to be a five month high!).

Does this mean that the real estate market has turned a corner? Many remain cautious.

Other housing related reports are mixed, however. The NAR reports that although overall housing inventory (homes listed for sale) is up, single family home inventory has declined. The increased housing inventory is attributed to a sudden increase of condominium inventory.

Locally, Montgomery County single family home inventory has dropped slightly in July 2008, while sales have also dropped slightly in July from June 2008 sales (data reported by the Greater capital Area Association of Realtors). However, a few individual zip codes and neighborhoods continue to show signs of recovery by posting sales increases, price increases, or both (data derived from Metro Regional Information Systems, Inc.; MRIS.com). Neighborhoods hit hardest by foreclosures continue to lag behind in sales.

What do home buyers think? A recent Harris Interactive poll, commissioned by Move.com (news.move.com), reports that 81% of home buyers polled are anxious about the current housing market and feel there are barriers to their homeownership. However, of those polled, 44% of home buyers believe the real estate market will improve with a new president. Additionally, 41% of current homeowners polled plan to purchase a home again, 80% of all renters polled plan to purchase a home someday with 47% planning to purchase a home within the next five years.

Of those reporting barriers to homeownership, the top barriers reported were current home prices (31%), lack of down payment (28%), “lack of confidence in economy” (26%), and various personal and financial concerns. Although many polled report a barrier to home ownership, 78% of home buyers polled report that they were willing to save for down payments as well as compromise on various criteria they are searching for in their home (including neighborhood and local amenities).

So what can we expect? Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, was reported as saying in a NAR news release (8/25/2008) that home prices could increase in the few localized markets where sales have appreciably improved. He continued to say that many market area inventories remain high and will take time to shrink; however he reports that 2009 will be a more “balanced” market. He expects that “long term appreciation patterns” will eventually return.

According to MRIS’s “Trends in Housing” (mid-year 2008), foreclosures will continue to trouble the local market; the Washington, DC region’s foreclosure rate this past spring (131 per 10,000) has outpaced the national rate (87 per 10,000). However, expectations are that decreased inventory along with increased housing demand (due to job growth and relatively low interest rates) will increase market activity by early 2009. It is expected that close-in neighborhoods will see these signs of recovery first, shortly followed by the outer suburbs.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of September 1, 2008. Copyright © 2008 Dan Krell.

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