Federal Reserve Archives - Page 3 of 3 - Real Estate News and Commentary

December 18, 2009October 5, 2019

How the Fed delays the next foreclosure wave

On Wednesday, the Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged (http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20091216a.htm). The rationale provided was that although the economy as a whole shows signs of recovery, it continues to be fragile. The OMC cited signs of a recovery as the “abating” unemployment, expanding household spending, and a stabilizing real estate market. The economy continues to be fragile due to tight credit, lower household wealth, and the reluctance for business to hire new employees.

Although there is no direct relationship between the Fed’s key interest rate and mortgage interest rates, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee does affect investor behavior; a majority of mortgage interest rates are directly related to bond yields that are traded in bond markets around the world.

Since adjustable mortgages have historically been more sensitive to any Fed rate adjustment (up or down) due to the nature of its short term vulnerability, many homeowners with adjustable rates (that are expected to reset in the next several months) are probably unaware that they may have dodged a bullet (in the form of possible negligible rate adjustments).

If you recall, many homeowners in 2006 and 2007 purchased homes with adjustable rate mortgages that had teaser rates as low as 1%. Many of these homeowners may not have been able to afford the homes if they were qualified at the higher fixed rate mortgage. The anticipated foreclosure wave is to include many of these homeowners who cannot afford the higher mortgage payments when rates reset at a higher interest rate. However as interest rates continue to stay relatively low; the anticipated foreclosure wave continues to be delayed as adjustable mortgages resets stay lower than anticipate.

Because many adjustable rate mortgages are due to reset this coming year, financial experts expected the next foreclosure wave to peak between 2010 and 2012. The Fed’s continued monetary policy to maintain the federal funds rate between 0 and ¼ percent as well as continued purchases of mortgage backed securities (albeit at a continued slower pace) will most likely have the indirect effect of abating another wave of foreclosures.

It is unclear what message would be sent if the Fed took another tack on monetary policy; however one could speculate that it may have signaled the beginning of the second foreclosure wave and possibly the beginning of the double dip recession.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice.

November 20, 2009January 26, 2020

Real Estate Wakeup Call

If the real estate industry is waiting for a wakeup call, it may be coming in May 2010. Three events that are expected to either end or peak next May include: the Fed’s discontinued purchases of mortgage backed securities, end of home buyer credit, and expected foreclosure increases.

In a November 19th press release, the Mortgage Bankers Association (mbaa.org) reported that delinquencies on residential mortgages have increased to 9.64% for the third quarter of 2009, which is a 40 (basis) point increase from the second quarter of 2009 and a 265 (basis) point increase from the same time last year; the overall foreclosure rate is up 35 (basis) points from the third quarter of 2008. The report claims that FHA and “prime” mortgages make up the bulk of the delinquencies. MBAA Chief Economist Jay Brinkman stated in the press release that “because mortgages are paid with paychecks” increased unemployment will “drive up delinquencies and foreclosures” [increases].

As delinquencies and foreclosures are expected to peak next year, both the home buyer credit and Federal Reserve purchases of mortgage backed securities are expected to end in April 2010. What? Yes, not only is the home buyer credit is to end, Steve Cook of the Real Estate Economy Watch reported that the National Association of Realtors agreed to not ask for another extension of the home buyer credit (www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2009/11/the-last-days-of-the-homebuyer-tax-credit).

The Fed has been buying mortgaged backed securities to ease the market and keep mortgage interest rates low. The program, that began earlier this year, is expected to end as the Fed slowly eases up on the mortgaged backed securities (also reported by Steve Cook).

We are anticipating seeing if the programs to forestall a real estate disaster have done what they were supposed to do. So, we may wake up to a gentle alarm clock next spring or a trumpet blasting in our ear.

January 28, 2008October 5, 2019

Will mortgage loan-limits increase?

by Dan Krell

Are you planning to buy a home this year? If you are planning to purchase a home that is priced more than $417,000, you could get a lower interest rate-if Congress raises conforming loan limits.

First, a very basic primer in mortgage jargon: “Conforming” refers to mortgages that correspond to Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSE) guidelines. GSE refers to those quasi-government enterprises that include (among others) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Conforming guidelines include underwriting criteria that lenders use so they can sell the loans to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The guidelines have strict borrower criteria as well as loan limits. The loan limit is set annually as a reflection of changes to the national average single family home price as determined by the Federal Housing Finance Board’s Monthly Interest Rate Survey. A “jumbo loan” is a mortgage that exceeds conforming loan limits; and usually has higher interest rates because of the higher risk involved.

Two large associations advocating for higher loan limits include the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Both the NAR and NAHB argue that increasing conforming loan limits would solve liquidity problems in the jumbo loan market, which would make lending for loans up to $625,000 easier for home buyers who are looking to purchase a home over the current loan limit of $417,000. The NAHB suggest that loan limits be raised temporarily while secondary markets normalize, and be re-evaluated after a two year increase. The NAR cites the need for stimulation of the housing market and the lowering of interest payments to those obtaining loans over the $417,000 limit.

The issue of raising GSE loan limits is not as simple as stimulating a sluggish housing market; as Federal Reserve Board Chairman, Ben Bernanke, made clear to Congress in September 2007. His statement to Congress implied that any increase in loan limits could provide false security to investors on the secondary market – increasing risk to those investors, their companies, and the government. Additionally, Dr. Bernanke implied that if Congress is inclined to increase the loan limits that it should be done quickly, temporarily, and ensures that any increase will function as intended.

What’s the risk? A recent report from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO.gov) (the government entity whose mission is to ensure the safety and soundness of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) entitled “Potential Implications of Increasing the Conforming Loan Limit in High-Cost Areas” reports that any loan limit increase would only help those in high cost areas as most jumbo loans tend to be geographically centered (California had almost forty-nine percent of the jumbo loans originated in 2007). One unintended consequence from raising loan limits to lower mortgage interest payments may be that home prices will increase to make high-cost areas actually cost more. Additionally, anticipated savings benefit may not be achieved as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have to charge for taking any increased risk.

As for now, it appears that loan limits for 2008 will remain the same as 2007. It is clear that although there are benefits, there may also be too many questions left unanswered before Congress can act quickly to raise GSE loan limits.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of January 21, 2008. Copyright © 2008 Dan Krell.

October 19, 2007November 23, 2021

Hard Money Lessons

by Dan Krell © 2007
Google+

The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) has offered advice about mortgage lending for many years. Just last week, the Fed met to discuss ways to address abusive lending practices. The Fed wants to get busy and try to create restrictions to change the sub-prime industry through what one board member called its “rule making authority” under the Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act of 1994 (HOEPA).

The Fed’s most recent action was initiated to thwart poor lending practices that have created a crisis in the housing industry due to the unusually high foreclosure rate. Although the Fed is on the right track, their authority with the HOEPA may have limited impact on the current crisis because many current foreclosures are due to purchase money mortgages rather than refinancing.

HOEPA was enacted in 1994 to address unfair and deceptive practices in mortgage lending. According to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC.gov), HOEPA does not cover mortgages to purchase or build a home, reverse mortgages, or home equities line of credit that are revolving (not closed ended).

When HOEPA was enacted, the mortgage industry was being abused by unscrupulous characters that made their fortunes by equity stripping. By targeting homeowners who had considerable equity in their home, the equity strippers would give the homeowner the cash they needed for home improvements, debt consolidation, or anything else they needed. The money did not come cheap, however, as the mortgages were usually high cost with rates that adjusted in two or three years.

Not only did these loan officers charge heavily for their service; they would come back every month or so to refinance the homeowner to a better rate. This was done until there was no equity left in the home.

The recent abuses in the mortgage industry that the Fed is reacting to are again one of deception and fraud, not for refinancing but in purchasing a home. In the fast paced buy at any cost recent “sellers’ market,” many home buyers were put into precarious mortgage situations with assurances and promises of low interest refinancing and rapid equity.

A lesson learned from “hard money” lenders. Hard money loans are typically private loans that are made against the property’s value, and sometimes do not take account for the borrower’s credit or income. To limit their risk, hard money lenders usually charge very high interest rates and limit the loan to about 60% to 70% of the value of the home. Additionally, the terms are kept short and usually have a final balloon payment. Each loan is “underwritten” based on the merits of the deal; basically if it makes sense the loan is approved.

Hard money is commonly used in commercial transactions, but is also used in residential lending. Many home buyers use hard money loans when traditional lenders will not lend, such as in purchasing a unique home or if the home buyer has very poor credit.

The mortgage industry is under pressure to make rapid changes while licking its wounds from recent foreclosure losses. Change needs to take place where the abuse is occurring. Rather than shaping a loan package to have the appearance of fitting the underwriting guidelines, why not have the loan originators take more responsibility in determining if the loan makes sense in the first place.

This column is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of July 2, 2007. Copyright (c) 2007 Dan Krell.