Can we really see negative mortgage rates?

Some speculate that it is possible for the Fed to set negative rates to stave off deflation; something that happened in Europe earlier this year.

Can you believe that 30-year fixed rate conventional mortgage rates have been below 5% for about five years? Rates have essentially been hovering around 4% (plus/minus) for the last three years. To put it in perspective, you’d probably have to go back to the 1940’s to get a lower rate. To contrast, rates from 1979 through the 1980’s were in double digits; and according to Freddie Mac’s Monthly Average Commitment Rate And Points On 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages Since 1971 (freddiemac.com), the average mortgage commitment rate reached a peak of 18.45% during October of 1981.

With such low rates, it’s hard to imagine signing up for a mortgage at 18%, or 10%, or even 7% interest. Keep in mind that the consensus is that the average mortgage rate over the last forty years has been about 8.75%. And as economists have anticipated rising rates since 2011, rates have actually decreased.

Many thought that Fed would finally begin to raise the federal funds rate towards the end of this year. However, an interesting thing happened last week from probably the most anticipated Fed meeting ever. On September 17^th, the Fed’s Open Market Committee issued a statement on the economy and monetary policy, and left the federal funds rate unchanged at a target rate of 0% to 1/4%. Although mortgage rates are not directly influenced by the federal funds rate, they are indirectly affected because the federal funds rate is the rate in which banks borrow money.

Initially it appears to be good news from the Fed’s September 17^th press release, housing was described as improving, and it is felt that mortgage rates will likely to remain relatively low for the short term. However, in a press conference following the Fed statement, Fed Chair Janet Yellen referred to housing as “depressed.” Depressed is certainly not the description that anyone was expecting of a housing market that has seen slow improvement. Yet, it’s not the first time Yellen expressed concern for housing; she raised concerns about a housing market slowdown last year.

Should we also be concerned when others are optimistic? Maybe Yellen sees something that we do not. An August 16^th 2013 Washington Post piece by Neil Irwin and Ylan Q. Mui details Yellen’s background and how she predicted the housing crisis and forecasted the following financial crisis (Janet Yellen called the housing bust and has been mostly right on jobs. Does she have what it takes to lead the Fed?). It’s not that Yellen is clairvoyant, as far as anyone knows, but rather her ability to connect the correct data points. In last week’s press conference she cited that housing was basically not improving in step with other economic indicators, such as employment.

So when will interest rates go up? Some speculate that it is possible for the Fed to set negative rates to stave off deflation; something that happened in Europe earlier this year. And in a couple of European counties, such as Spain, you could get a negative interest mortgage! CNN-Money reported on European negative interest rates, quoting Luca Bertalot (secretary general of the European Mortgage Federation) to say “We are in uncharted waters.” And described Spain’s Bankinter’s negative interest rate dilemma, saying that “they could not pay interest to borrowers, but instead reduced the principal for some customers (The crazy world of negative rates: Banks pay your mortgage for you?; money.cnn.com, April 22, 2015).”

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

July 12, 2013November 23, 2021

Rising mortgage interest rates – what that means for housing market

by Dan Krell © 2013
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Over the last few weeks, the 30 year fixed rate mortgage has slowly climbed from the historical low we have become accustomed over the last few years to well above 4%, as reported by Freddie Mac’s Monthly Average Commitment Rate as of July 3rd. And although it’s still relatively low and not bad as interest rates go; keep in mind that the mortgage rate averaged over the last 40 years is much higher – some report it to be 8.75%.

If you haven’t noticed, average mortgage rates have been below 7% for about ten years. And even when the housing market was bubbling, rates were not as low as where rates are today. After the financial crisis, mortgage rates were kept low by the Federal Reserve’s commitment to purchasing mortgage backed securities; which was an attempt to stimulate interest in real estate purchases at a time when the housing market all but screeched to a halt. Shortly after the Fed ended the mortgage backed securities purchase program, a broader securities buying program began with the intent to stimulate the overall economy; commonly called quantitative easing, this was considered the second round, which targeted the purchase of U.S. Treasury Bonds. The Quantitative Easing program was extended into a third phase (QE3) through 2013, which many are speculating will begin tapering off by end of the year.

Recent Fed comments may have hinted to tapering off the QE program, which could have been the source of some Wall Street panic earlier this month that resulted in a volatile market; besides affecting your 401k, the result has been a jump in mortgage interest rates.

Of course, many experts are worried about mortgage rate increases and the effect on home buyers, citing a decreased home buying ability as well as the possibility of suppressing existing homes sales. For some home buyers, it might be true that increased interest rates could be a wrench in their home buying plans; however, the reality may be that increasing mortgage rates are a sign that the housing market is healthier than some think.

Although mortgage interest rates are just one aspect of a multi-factor dynamic housing market; housing demand is not necessarily gauged by mortgage interest rates alone. For instance, the height of the housing bubble, mortgage interest rates were much higher than they are today. One sign that slightly increased mortgage rates have not negatively affected the overall market is a recent report by the National Association of Realtors (realtor.org) that May 2013 existing home sales (completed sales) increased about 11.4% compared to May 2012. Additionally, the NAR reported that existing home sales are the highest since 2009.

There has been criticism that the “artificially” low interest rates have helped home sale prices jump, especially during a time when there has been little housing inventory; some are concerned that increases in mortgage rates will pressure home sale prices lower. But just like the housing demand concern, these factors alone are not in a vacuum; factors today may warrant mortgage rate increases to thwart abnormal housing price spikes (which are common in bubble markets).

Of course, rising mortgage rates and the thought of paying more for a mortgage is not always good news to home buyers. However, given the circumstances and looking at the broader perspective, the result may be much better than anyone could imagine – a stable housing market. But that is yet to be seen.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published the week of July 8, 2013 (Montgomery County Sentinel). Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

February 1, 2012November 11, 2012

“Exceptionally” low mortgage rates for buyers and owners

by Dan Krell
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Last week, the Fed issued a statement from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicating that the target rate was to remain between 0 and ¼ percent; and an “exceptionally” low rate is warranted through 2014. Although there were some bright areas of the economy, some sectors remain an obstacle- including housing (which was described as “depressed”).

The Fed’s estimation of the housing market appears contrary to the seemingly upbeat reports issued by the National Association of Realtors®, which recently revised downward several years’ worth of housing data. However, by keeping an ear to the ground, the Fed goes beyond the typical statistical analysis by collecting and analyzing anecdotal data from industry experts around the country. The anecdotes are compiled, analyzed and published eight times a year by the Fed as the “Beige Book.” Formally known as the “Summery of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District,” the most recent report indicated an overall feeling that home sales are sluggish throughout the country. Furthermore, the report from the Richmond District (which covers MD, DC, VA) indicates that although there were a few pockets of “strength,” a softened housing market was depicted citing the sentiment of some local real estate agents.

Getting back to interest rates, the Fed’s monetary policy of “exceptionally” low interest rates for some time could mean cheap mortgage money for you. There’s no telling how much lower mortgage interest rates can go, as we are already seeing some of the lowest interest rates in several generations. The interest rate on your mortgage is tied directly to your monthly mortgage payment; a lower rate typically means a lower monthly payment.

For home buyers, “exceptionally” low interest rates could result in a more affordable home purchase; buying a home today may possibly be cheaper than paying rent. Even if home prices continue at the current level during the next few years, home affordability can drastically change if mortgage rates rise.

If you currently own a home, “exceptionally” low interest rates could mean that you could possibly reduce your monthly mortgage payment. However, refinancing is not for everyone. According to the Federal Reserve Board’s “A Consumer’s Guide to Mortgage Refinancings,” refinancing may not be for you if: you’ve had your mortgage for a long time, your mortgage has a prepayment penalty, or you plan to move in the next few years.

For a typical mortgage, the proportion of the mortgage payment that is applied to principal increases through the life of the loan. So, if you’ve had your mortgage for a while, chances are that you’ve been increasingly paying toward the mortgage principal (and building equity). However, if you refinance, the mortgage life cycle begins anew and much of your payment would be applied to interest.

If your mortgage has a pre-payment penalty, you can be charged for paying off your mortgage early. Any pre-payment penalty should be considered in the total cost of the refinance so as to consider how long it may take to “break even” based on your monthly mortgage savings.

In today’s market, many home owners are putting off a move and refinancing instead. However, if you’re planning to sell your home soon after the refinance, consider the “beak even” point of your monthly mortgage savings. Selling your home shortly after a refinance could make the short term mortgage savings seem short sighted.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of January 30, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

April 24, 2010July 21, 2019

What’s making the rounds in housing news

Making news the week of April 19th 2010

What do you mean it’s a seller’s market?!
http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2010/04/homebuyer-tax-credit-backfires-on-buyers/
As the deadline for the home buyer tax credit is fast approaching, many home sellers have taken a firm standing on price as well as asking buyers to forgo the usual inspections. Knowing that buyers are rushing to meet the deadline, home sellers have grasped the upper hand- at least for another week.

Signs of life in the jumbo mortgage securitization market
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/04/21/private-label-securitization-market-starts-to-thaw-with-jumbo-prime-rmbs/
Big news in the mortgage backed securities arena with the announcement of a jumbo MBS deal of $222.38 million (each loan averaging a balance of $932,700)…

Washington, DC comes in as #2
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-top-10-places-to-relocate-in-2010-2010-04-20
Want to know the best places to relocate? Washington, DC is #2 on the list of the top 10 place to relocate in 2010.

What would the greatest economists say about the financial crisis?
What would Keynes and Hayek say about the current crisis? Take a look at this video of two of the great economists attend a conference on the economic crisis. They decide to go out the night before the conference begins to sing about “why there’s a “boom and bust” cycle in modern economies and good reason to fear it.” This rap called “Fear the Boom and Bust” (a Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem) was created by the collaboration between economist Russ Roberts and director John Papola.

Will there be changes to Regulation C?
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20100423a.htm
The Federal Reserve Board announced on Friday (4/23) that it will look into revising the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act. “The act requires mortgage lenders to provide detailed annual reports of their mortgage lending activity to regulators and the public. Consumers, community and consumer organizations, mortgage lenders, and other interested parties will be invited to participate in the hearings.”

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

December 29, 2009June 29, 2019

Things we’ll be talking about in 2010

2009 was a year when many home owners lost their homes to foreclosure, while other home owners could not move due to their depreciated home values. Let’s also remember that 2009 was also the time when many home buyers took advantage of home buyer tax credits and reduced prices from distressed properties (which helped boost home sales statistics).

As much as it felt that 2009 was the tear down year for the real estate industry, 2010 is promising to be a re-building year; the upcoming year will lay the foundation real estate markets to come. So, you might ask, “how will things be different?” This is what we may expect to see in 2010: a change in home buyer attitude; rising interest rates; and “Cash for Caulkers.”

More home buyers will be searching for homes in 2010. However, continued changes in mortgage underwriting guidelines will most likely limit the number of qualified home buyers. Mortgage underwriting guidelines have been tightening through 2009 and will continue into 2010. The trend of shrinking the pool of qualified home buyers due to mortgage guidelines requiring increased down payments, higher credit scores, and reduced debt ratios will most likely continue as FHA’s new underwriting guidelines are anticipated in 2010. New FHA guidelines are expected to increase the minimum down payment to 5% and restrict debt ratios below 45% (for FHA mortgages).

Additionally, the current home buyer incentives are likely to sunset without any further extension; it is doubtful that home buyer credits will continue in its current form. As a result of having more “skin in the game,” it is possible that home buyers will be more conscientious during the home buying process; home buyers will take more time and be more discerning in their home search.

Mortgage interest rates are likely to increase through 2010. Having been relatively close to historic lows for nearly a decade, mortgage rates will most likely steadily climb as current Federal Reserve programs are set to end (already evidenced by a consecutive 4 week rise in the average 30-year fixed rate as indicated by Freddie Mac’s Weekly Primary Mortgage Survey). The Fed’s current purchase program of mortgage backed securities and agency debt, that was meant to assist the housing market and facilitate mortgage lending, is committed through the end of the first quarter of 2010. The Fed has already begun slowing the pace of these purchases, so as to ease the transition in the marketplace (www.federalreserve.gov/).

The most anticipated news for 2010 is the “cash for caulkers” program, also known as the “Home Star” program. Although many have speculated about the program and its guidelines, legislation has yet to be passed. President Obama, in a speech given at the Brookings Institute on December 8th, called on Congress “…to consider a new program to provide incentives for consumers who retrofit their homes to become more energy-efficient…”, and to emphasize passing of such as legislation (WhiteHouse.gov). The plan is supposed to offer tax incentives to home owners for increasing home energy efficiency through home energy audits, system replacements, and weatherization; however, the final legislation (if any) may have variants of the current proposal.

In the near future it may seem as if home owners may be talking more about retro-fitting their homes than moving, while more home buyers will complain of the mortgage process. Regardless, everyone is looking forward with optimism to 2010.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Permission to use this article is by written consent only.

Some speculate that it is possible for the Fed to set negative rates to stave off deflation; something that happened in Europe earlier this year.

by Dan Krell © 2013 Google+ DanKrell.com

by Dan Krell © 2013
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DanKrell.com