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October 8, 2017July 15, 2019

Buyer’s market home selling

Home Buyer’s market (infographic from nar.Realtor)

As winter approaches, many home sellers will be contemplating their next move after their homes have not sold. It is likely that a volatile housing market awaits home sellers during the first half of 2018. If you’re planning to list your home, you should have a selling plan that is able to adjust to market conditions quickly. In other words, know about home selling in a buyer’s market.

The good news for home sellers is that this year’s home sale prices continue to climb, as the September 26th 20-city composite of the S&P Corelogic Case Shiller National Home Price Index (spindices.com) revealed. The national index during July increased 5.8 percent compared to the same period last year, while the Washington DC area realized a 3.3 percent year over year gain. However, there is expectation home sale prices may moderate or even slightly decrease in the first quarter of 2018 because of Fed policy and other market forces.

David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices stated in the release:

“While home prices continue to rise, other housing indicators may be leveling off. Sales of both new and existing homes have slipped since last March. The Builders Sentiment Index published by the National Association of Home Builders also leveled off after March. Automobiles are the second largest consumer purchase most people make after houses. Auto sales peaked last November and have been flat to slightly lower since. The housing market will face two contradicting challenges during the rest of 2017 and into 2018. First, rebuilding following hurricanes across Texas, Florida and other parts of the south will lead to further supply pressures. Second, the Fed’s recent move to shrink its balance sheet could push mortgage rates upward.”

Of course, home sale price indices only show sale prices for homes that sell. And while home sale prices are increasing back to record levels in many areas, the volume of homes sold during 2017 so far is disappointing. According to a September 20^th NAR news release (realtor.nar), August’s existing home sales dropped 1.7 percent. The Pending Home Sale Index for August dropped 2.6 percent, which made the NAR revise their 2017 home sale forecast to be “slightly below the pace set in 2016.” Home sale volume in the first quarter of 2018 may also lag due to continued lack of inventory and anticipated increasing mortgage interest rates. Lawrence Yun, cheif NAR economist, quipped

“The supply and affordability headwinds would have likely held sales growth just a tad above last year, but coupled with the temporary effects from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, sales in 2017 now appear will fall slightly below last year…The good news is that nearly all of the missed closings for the remainder of the year will likely show up in 2018, with existing sales forecast to rise 6.9 percent.”

Since these are August sales figures from the NAR, it is an unfortunate truth that August sales were not really affected by hurricanes. Mostly because hurricane Harvey hit Texas the very last days of August and Irma hit Florida in September. The main affects of the hurricanes disruption to existing home sales will be seen in September’s statistics. And “missed closings” is a euphemism for phantom closings, because they don’t really exist. So, with regard to sliding home sales, you should take Yun’s “headwinds” of supply and affordability very seriously.

Home selling in 2018, a buyer’s market?

Home sellers positioning themselves solely on this year’s home sale prices may be in for a rude awakening next year. Sellers may feel as if the market is getting soft, however that may change the latter half of 2018 as home prices moderate. Sellers will need to be reasonable. They will need to have awareness of many factors besides home sale prices, including existing home sales volume and neighborhood sale trends. Including home selling in a buyer’s market.

If you’re planning to sell your home, you will need to play to your audience (home buyers), and listen to their feedback. Know how to sell in 2018. Prepare your home before listing it in the MLS by repairing deferred maintenance and possibly making updates. Home buyers have a track record of paying more for a home that has been totally renovated. However, if you don’t completely repair and/or update your home, be prepared to lower your sale price.

Be flexible to quickly adjust to a seemingly buyer’s market. Feedback is highly important to get other’s perspectives about your home. However, take Realtor feedback with a grain of salt. Instead, have your agent collect buyer feedback at open houses. Home buyers tend to be more honest when giving feedback, and it can be especially helpful in a buyer’s market. If the consensus is that the price is too high, the price may actually be too high. If buyers are turned off by the condition and/or curb appeal of the home, consider making repairs or lowering price to reflect the condition. If they are focused on your décor, consider hiring a professional stager to make the home more appealing.

Rather than a soft market, we are experiencing the struggle for a balanced market due to an inventory shortage and sharply decreasing affordability. The last year and a half has been all about the home seller. However, 2018 will be about the home buyer. Home selling in a volatile or buyer’s market can be challenging. If you’re planning a sale, be realistic about your home’s condition and value. Over pricing your home from the start can make your home languish on the market, which could get you a much lower price if it sells.

By Dan Krell
Copyright© 2017

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2017/10/08/buyers-market-home-selling/

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

July 23, 2017October 5, 2018

Vacation homes declining

According to the National Association of Realtors 2017 Investment and Vacation Home Buyers Survey (nar.realtor), last year’s vacation home purchases plunged 21.6 percent! Last year’s decline in vacation homes sales comes at the heels of a huge drop in 2015, and has tumbled about 36 percent since the post-recession high marked in 2014. Are the statistics telling us it’s a good time to buy that vacation home you have been thinking about? Or is it that Americans are rethinking their view about vacations and retirement?

Of course, Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, feels that the decline is due a very tight vacation homes market that may likely make a comeback in the ensuing years. In an April 11^th NAR press release he stated that “In several markets in the South and West – the two most popular destinations for vacation buyers – home prices have soared in recent years because substantial buyer demand from strong job growth continues to outstrip the supply of homes for sale. With fewer bargain-priced properties to choose from and a growing number of traditional buyers, finding a home for vacation purposes became more difficult and less affordable last year.” He added, “The volatility seen in the financial markets in late 2015 through the early part of last year also put a dent in sales as some affluent households with money in stocks likely refrained from buying or delayed plans until after the [2016] election.”

However, another explanation given by the NAR is short term rentals, including airbnb. Short term rentals allow people to visit vacation and resort towns without committing to buy a home.

To give perspective about the tight vacation homes market, NAR stated that vacation home sales were only 12 percent of all transactions in 2016, a decrease from 16 percent in 2015 (and close to the recent low of 11 percent in 2012). Additionally, low vacation home inventory pushed sale prices higher. The 2016 median vacation home price increased 4.2 percent, which is a decade high of vacation home price growth.

A lack of inventory and rising home prices are sure to put a damper on the vacation homes market. But the slump could be a manifestation of something else.

Bloggers and columnists have reported a shift in the younger generation’s home buying habits for about a decade. The trend seems to be a rejection of the accepted industry standard home buying cycle set by older generations. For decades, the Baby-Boom generation has set the bar for home sales. Their views on home ownership and vacation homes have guided the experts. However, millennials have a different perspective, having a more conservative take on home buying and exhibiting a strong sense of value.

The NAR’s 2017 Investment and Vacation Home Buyers Survey pointed out that that the top two reasons to purchase a vacation home are for a family retreat and for retirement. However, just like the trend in home buying, millennials are redefining their retirement and vacation needs.

Expecting to work longer, Millennials’ idea of retirement is not perceived the same as the Baby-Boomer’s vision of retirement. Staying relevant and engaged is now more important than leisure.

Having a regular spot for the family to congregate and vacation is no longer highly desired. Millennials want the option to travel rather than visiting the same vacation spot every year. Millennials are also savers. They may view vacation homes as exorbitant and expensive. Even though the vacation is only a small portion of the year, there are regular expenses that may include a mortgage, property taxes, HOA fees, and maintenance.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2017/07/23/vacation-homes-declining/

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June 23, 2017July 14, 2019

Selling your home – try, try, again

If your home didn’t sell this spring, it’s ok. Rocky never quit when he lost, and neither should you. No one said selling your home was easy. Take stock and plan for your next sale.

If your home didn’t sell, you’re not alone. Consider that April’s existing home sales dropped 2.3 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors May 24^th press release (nar.realtor). NAR Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, stated that the April slide was “expected” because March sales were very strong. Additionally, he pointed out that new and existing inventory is not meeting demand. Many prospective home buyers are frustrated because there is not much of a choice and they are not finding the homes they want. When selling your home, does it have features that buyers want?

Pending home sales also declined in April. Based on contracts signed, the forward looking indicator suggests additional decreased sales in the months to come. Yun also attributes the prospect of future decreased home sales to low housing inventory. He stated that the inventory of existing homes for sale decreased about 9 percent from the same time last year.

When selling your home, consider that the appearance of a brief period of slow sales is not necessarily a warning sign of an impending housing crisis. Instead, a slower sales trend may be considered part of a normal economic cycle after a breakthrough sales year. It is a sign of a healthy market seeking balance. The cycle is caused by home buyers and sellers struggling to find equilibrium.

If your home didn’t sell, you may have a better chance in a few months when the cycle changes. However, before going with the same strategy, try to analyze what happened during this listing period. You may find interesting and revealing information, about your home and your agent, that could help you the next time.

First, talk to your listing agent. If they were active in marketing your home, they should have a wealth of information. Start by asking them about showings. The number of showings determines buyer interest in your home. If you had few visits to your home, it could mean the price is too high. It could also be a result of low quality MLS pictures and information. Buyers start with the MLS listing to determine if the home is worth a visit. However, if you had plenty of buyer visits but no offers, there may be other issues that need attention.

Check with your agent for feedback. Agents often communicate about their visits to homes. Home buyers who attend open houses also provide feedback. Skip over the positive feedback because agents and home buyers often offer positive feedback just to be polite, even if it’s not warranted. Look toward critical reviews for help to improve your home presentation and marketing. If the same item is mentioned multiple times, you should take that as an indicator and begin there.

When selling your home, price, presentation and marketing are relatively easy to adjust. However, your home’s condition could be a deterrent. Buyers in the current market are very demanding and selective. They want a turn-key home that has the recent updates featuring the newest technologies. Even though housing inventory is low, many home buyers will not settle for any house. If your home is not updated relative to the top sales in your neighborhood, you may have to consider a major price adjustment. If your home’s condition is holding back a sale, do a cost-benefit analysis. You may discover that selling for less could net you more than if you spent tens-of-thousands on renovations.

By Dan Krell
Copyright© 2017

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April 28, 2017July 14, 2019

Gonzo home sales and prices

Everyone seems to be excited about this week’s Case-Shiller home price numbers reported for February. Even the title of the April 25^th press release sounded a little giddy: “The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index Sets Fourth Consecutive All-Time High” (spindices.com). Yes, the Case-Shiller 10-city and 20-city composite indices are close to the 2007 level. But before you become intoxicated by reports of gonzo home sales and prices and run off to sell your home, here’s more to the story.

Gonzo home sales and prices

Gonzo home sales and prices depend on the market. According to the recent Case-Shiller release, Seattle, Portland, and Dallas topped the charts with annual index gains of 12.2 percent, 9.7 percent, and 8.8 percent respectively. Not surprisingly, Seattle and Portland have been the hottest real estate markets over the past year. Tampa’s and Cleveland’s housing markets are at the opposite end of the spectrum with decreases of -0.5 percent, -0.3 percent during February; while Miami’s home price index was unchanged. Washington DC reported an annual gain of 4.1 percent, with a 0.2% gain reported in February.

David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices stated:

“There are still relatively few existing homes listed for sale and the small 3.8 month supply is supporting the recent price increases. Housing affordability has declined since 2012 as the pressure of higher prices has been a larger factor than stable to lower mortgage rates.
Housing’s strength and home building are important contributors to the economic recovery. Housing starts bottomed in March 2009 and, with a few bumps, have advanced over the last eight years. New home construction is now close to a normal pace of about 1.2 million units annually, of which around 800,000 are single family homes. Most housing rebounds following a recession only last for a year or so. The notable exception was the boom that set the stage for the bubble. Housing starts bottomed in 1991, drove through the 2000-2001 recession, and peaked in 2005 after a 14-year run.”

Gonzo home sales and prices are dependent on local real estate. It’s true, housing inventory is lacking. At a time when homes should be coming to market for the spring season, the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors Montgomery County single family statistics for March 2017 indicated that there were -1.8 percent less new listings compared to the same time last year. And the total number of active homes for sale are -16.4 percent less than the same time last year. Although June is usually the peak time for home sales and prices in our area, home sales increased 17.9 percent month over month, and is 11.7 percent higher than the same time last year; while average home sale prices increased less than 1 percent (gcaar.com)!

Holy shades of 2005, Batman!

Housing stats sound eerily like those before the housing bubble crash. But this market is different in many respects. Consider that housing speculation is not as prevalent as it was at that time; homes are not being flipped in a matter of days in most areas. And home buyers are more sophisticated and savvy than they were in 2005; home buyers are more demanding, as well as sensitive to home condition and price.

Yes, it’s true that house values are increasing. Yes, home sales are breaking records. But not all homes sell. You should realize that that home sale stats includes data of homes that sell. Homes that don’t sell are not included in the numbers of closings, nor are they included in home sale prices.

Homes that don’t sell tend to be overpriced for the home’s condition, or neighborhood. Sometimes, the physical location of the house is not ideal; for example, situated next to train tracks. If you’re selling your home this year, don’t get greedy. Get a professional opinion on pricing your home correctly; over priced homes tend to not sell quickly, or not at all.

Pricing your home may not be as easy as you think. Empirical research has confirmed that there are many variables that affect sales price. Factors that impact home sale price include the home’s location, condition, amenities, and market timing.

If you want to sell your home quickly and capitalize on home sale trends: consider repairing deferred maintenance issues, making updates, and don’t take home buyers for granted. When making repairs and updates, don’t go for the cheapest quote because it will likely show. Also, make sure your contractors are licensed.

Home buyers are just as savvy as you, so any attempt to deceive will backfire and hurt your sale. Focus on broadening your home’s appeal. Consider making your home turnkey, since most home buyers are looking for a home they can move right in and without making immediate repairs and updates.

For a guide on a successful home sale, take a look at “The magic of 4 to sell a home“

By Dan Krell
Copyright© 2017

Original post at https://dankrell.com/blog/2017/04/28/gonzo-home-sales-prices/

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November 22, 2016October 20, 2020

A hot winter housing market

Winter is not usually a time of year when you would think of selling your home. After all, everyone gets into holiday and hibernation mode. Between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day (during the winter housing market), home sale inventory is usually trimmed by an average of 50 percent and contract activity is significantly reduced.

But this winter will be different. Rising interest rates and pent up demand could make the housing market very active this winter.

Consider that mortgage interest rates are on their way up. Freddie Mac (freddiemac.com) reported last week about a mortgage interest “spike” that can get fence-sitters to jump into the winter housing market. The rate for the 30-year-fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.94 percent, which jumped from the prior week’s average of 3.57 percent. On the face of it, the increase doesn’t seem significant. But the difference is about $70 per month on a $300,000 mortgage.

Last week’s interest rate surge could be the beginning of interest rate increases we’ve been anticipating (for five years). Speculation is that the bond market is anticipating and pricing in a Fed interest rate hike at next month’s Open Market Committee meeting. Of course, the next sixty days could be a lead up to new mortgage rate expectations, which could exceed 4.5 percent by the end of next year.

Historically low interest rates for a 30-year-fixed-rate mortgage have become part of our lives. Upward movement will be met with hyperbole and excitement from the media, claiming reduced home sales and a faltering real estate market. However, let’s put it in perspective. Mortgage rates averaged above 4 percent throughout 2014. The last time we had an average mortgage rate above 5 percent was 2010. In fact, the average mortgage rate at the height of the go-go market during 2006 was above 6 percent.

What does it mean for you if you’re planning a sale? Don’t wait until spring! Consider selling during the winter housing market. You won’t have much competition; and serious home buyers, who are sensitive to interest rates, will be looking through the holidays and winter.

If you decide to sell during the holidays and the winter housing market, make sure your home is ready. Decluttering is the most important aspect of home preparation. However, winter decluttering may be more difficult because of the colder weather and our desire to slow down during these months. Besides our inclination to “nest,” it’s easy to accumulate items in the house that make us cozy and comfortable. But winter clutter can be minimized by organization and a daily straightening-up for incoming buyers.

Check your home’s systems. Have licensed professionals inspect your furnace and roof. Besides keeping the house warm and dry for buyers who visit, checking these systems can prevent surprises when a home inspection is performed.

After a weather event, clear your walkways and driveway of ice and snow. Besides making it easier for home buyers to visit your home, it lessens the possibility of someone falling and getting hurt.

If your home is vacant, have a licensed professional winterize it. Winterizing your home can reduce the risk of bursting pipes and damaging plumbing fixtures. If you are out of town, have a trusted person check on the home regularly (even if you are listed with a real estate agent). Your “stand-in” should also be available to take care of any house related issues that occur in your absence during the winter housing market.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2016

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