Will stock volatility spill into real estate market

After a few days of steep stock market declines, I, like others, wonder if there will be spill over into the real estate market. Many have forgotten the consequences of the dot-com crash of the late 1990’s, and the brief housing market slowdown that followed in 2000. One thing is certain – there is no consensus from the financial talking heads about the meaning and impact of the equity markets on the economy; some are optimistic, while others caution for rippling effects across other sectors.

MarketWatch’s Steve Goldstein estimated that $1.8 Trillion have been lost in the market over the past week (Households just saw $1.8 trillion in wealth vanish as stocks fall; marketwatch.com, August 24, 2015). And because many rely on their 401k and other equities investments for down payment funds on their home purchase – housing may be impacted. If mortgage rates increase, as anticipated earlier this year, combined with a lack of down payments; home prices could be pressured downward.

In the face of a stock market meltdown, the good news is that the housing market has been gaining momentum, such that existing home sales are as strong as just before the housing decline! According to a National Association of Realtors® (realtor.org) August 20^th press release, existing home sales “are at the highest pace since February 2007.” July existing home sales increased 2%; which is the tenth consecutive month showing year-over-year gains. Additionally, median home prices increased 5.6% compared to the same time the previous year.

Pending home sales, a forward looking indicator of homes under contract, have also been strong. An NAR July 29^th press release indicated that pending home sales increased 8.2% year-over-year during June; which is the tenth consecutive month for such an increase. Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, surmised that “Strong price appreciation and an improving economy is finally giving some homeowners the incentive and financial capability to sell and trade up or down…”

Locally, the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors® (gcaar.com) reported that Montgomery County single family home sales increased 13.3% year-over-year during July; while pending home sales increased 13.2% year-over-year. However, July’s median home sale price for Montgomery County single family homes dropped slightly, from $460,000 to $458,000.

An interesting detail is that although home sales continue to increase, the NAR August 20^th release reported that some buyer pools are shrinking; first time home buyers, cash buyers, and individual investor buyers have decreased compared to the same time the previous year. In light of this, some are beginning to question the validity of NAR’s recent existing home sales data reporting. In addition to dwindling home buyer pools, ZeroHedge pointed out a data discrepancy between increased home sales and decreased mortgage applications by (rhetorically) asking the NAR, “where are the buyers coming from… and how long is this sustainable?” (Existing Home Sales Extrapolation Surges To Highest Since Feb 2007; zerohedge.com, August 20, 2015).

ZeroHedge alluded to NAR’s history of predictions of strong home sales and rising home prices through 2006. Of course, the NAR announced in 2011 of about five years worth of home sale data revisions, calling it “re-benchmarking.” According to the NAR, “data-drift” was revealed in existing home sales data compiled from MLS boards; that was due to a number of factors, including: double listings, and inconsistencies.

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

August 21, 2015September 1, 2019

Homeowners do better than renters

Many years ago, buying your first home used to be a rite of passage that usually coincided with starting a family. Your first home was not just a place to live; but was considered an investment that was expected to grow and provide a “nest egg” for your later years.

Several generations later, a lot has changed. We view investments differently, and have become amateur number crunchers trying to get the most of our money. But what was once considered a sound long term investment has now been deemed as poor judgment.

Of course to real estate investors, housing is a commodity; they take risks to reap rewards. Short term real estate investors (“flippers”) are often viewed as opportunists, buying homes at a discount and selling at retail value. The flipper’s goal is to have a quick turnaround between the time of acquisition and resale (flip), avoiding as much carrying cost as possible. The risk for the flipper is very high, especially in fickle markets; but the payoff can be very rewarding. It is not unusual for a flipper to lose money on a project because of delays, unexpected costs, and/or poor timing.

Long term real estate investors acquire homes to be used as rental properties, banking on the properties’ appreciation when it comes time to sell. Although the financial reward for this investor is long term, the risk is considered to be leveraged over time as well. However, unexpected costs and loss of rent can make such an investor rethink their plan and cut their losses.

For the rest of us, however; housing may not be such a great investment after all, according to many financial pundits. One such pundit, Morgan Housel (of Motley Fool fame), wrote about his meeting with Robert Shiller (of Case-Shiller fame) to give some telling insight about home values (Why your home is not a good investment; usatoday.com; May 10, 2014). Shiller told Housel that the housing market is “a provider of housing services” and “not a good provider of capital gains.”

According to Shiller, home prices from 1890 to 1990 (adjusted for real inflation) are “virtually unchanged.” Housel further added that home prices between 1890 and 2012, adjusted for real inflation, “went nowhere;” and decreased 10% from 1890 to 1980, when adjusted for real inflation. Shiller even suggested that “real” home prices could decrease over the next 30 years, due to a number of factors including obsolescence and advances in construction techniques.

With all the stats and figures, are those who touted the investment value of long term home ownership – wrong? Not necessarily. The consensus is that home ownership offers stability as well as many other benefits including: a place to live, a place to raise a family, and belonging to a community. These intangibles may be responsible for the research conclusions by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, that indicated there is an association between home ownership and growing wealth; where home owners fared better than renters (Herbert, McCue, and Sanchez-Moyano; Is Homeownership Still an Effective Means of Building Wealth for Low-income and Minority Households? Was it Ever? Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University, September 2013).

Is buying a home a bad investment? Housel pointed out that even Robert Shiller owns a home, and (at the time of the interview) indicated he would buy a home if he were in the market.

by Dan Krell
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June 19, 2015December 13, 2022

DANGER Report not a mea culpa – but forecasts issues affecting housing market

News about the D.A.N.G.E.R. Report is making the media rounds, but maybe the excitement is more hyperbole than news. And contrary to the recent hype, the D.A.N.G.E.R. Report is not a mea culpa by the National Association of Realtors®.

D.A.N.G.E.R. is an acronym for “Definitive Analysis of Negative Game changers Emerging in Real estate.” The Report was commissioned by the National Association of REALTORS® as that is part of the NAR Strategic Thinking Advisory Committee’s attempt to identify issues affecting the future of the industry; the Swanepoel | T3 Group researched and authored the Report, which identifies trends and offers the residential real estate industry an impact assessment.

Described as a “…mix of yesterday, today and tomorrow…” the Report is intended to assist those in the industry to “…anticipate the forces taking shape that we can’t yet see;” by pointing out possible challenges, threats, and opportunities. Although the result is meant to “inspire” discourse, the reception has so far been mixed. NAR CEO Dale Stinton was quoted to say, “The D.A.N.G.E.R. Report is like 50 things that could keep you up at night. It isn’t a strategic plan. It isn’t telling you to do anything. It’s 50 potential black swans. It’s for your strategic planning processes. Digest it and cuss and fuss and decide whether it’s right or wrong…” (Anrea V. Brambila; ‘Danger’ report alerts industry to 50 biggest threats; inman.com; May 15, 2015).

One issue highlighted in the Report that has attracted the media attention is agent competency and ethics. The use of Report quotes such as, “the real estate industry is saddled with a large number of part-time, untrained, unethical, and/or incompetent agents…” is as if some in the media are saying “we told you so.” But the truth is that competency does not guarantee ethical behavior, and vice versa; the answers, like the issues, are more complex than you might expect – and do not assure advancement.

Like many of the issues reported in D.A.N.G.E.R., concern about agent competency and ethics is not new. The National Association of Realtors® has for years tried to influence public opinion of Realtors® and the industry by publicly promoting the high ethical standards by which Realtors® are held. Many are unaware that a code of ethics was adopted in 1913 by the association, and has since strived to instill and maintain a high level of integrity in the field. And yet with such emphasis on ethics, you might expect that public opinion would be much higher, but the limited research on consumer perception of ethics is mixed at best. And according to one study, consumers consider price, quality, and value more important than ethical criteria in purchase behavior (The myth of the ethical consumer – do ethics matter in purchase behaviour? The Journal of Consumer Marketing. 2001;18(7),560-577).

The D.A.N.G.E.R. Report may have missed the mark by not acknowledging that the industry’s transformation over many decades has been mainly influenced and driven by market forces, regulation, and technology. Discussing “black swans” with regard to these three areas may have been more valuable and practical to professionals and consumers.

However, as much as we try to identify unforeseen events; they are just that – unexpected and unanticipated. Take for instance the extreme changes that have occurred over the last ten years in the real estate industry – much of which were due to market forces, regulation, and technology.

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April 30, 2015January 16, 2020

Millennials redefining American Dream – and it’s not what you think

There is no doubt that the baby boom generation has fueled the housing market for over four decades. That’s right, our vision of the American Dream was shaped by those who are said to have been born between 1946 and 1964. Success was measured against a standard of working at one job or career for a lifetime, buying a suburban house to raise a family, and do it all on a single income.

As time passed and the economy changed, single income families became passé. Many struggled to keep up with the Jones’ and maintain the American Dream. The Dream became twisted into maintaining a lifestyle at all costs, even by financing it with their home’s equity.

In fact this meme was used in a Lending Tree commercial that ran prior to the housing bust. The commercial starts with the character “Stanley Johnson” introducing himself, and then posing with his family proclaiming they are great. The scene pans out to show his home as he continues to describe his four bedroom home being located in a great community. He then shows off his new car. And is proud to point out he is a member of the local club. He rhetorically asks with a smile while grilling in the backyard, “How do I do it?… I’m in debt up to my eyeballs…” And the commercial ends with “Stanley” mowing the lawn as he proclaims, “Somebody help me…”

At the time when the commercial ran, cash-out refinancing was popular. But in retrospect, the dark comedy seems prophetic of what went wrong with the American Dream. And as some have wondered if the American Dream died with the housing bust, it is becoming apparent that the dream is being redefined by Millennials (those born between 1980 to 2000) – and it may not be exactly what you think.

Millennials have been blamed for holding back a strong housing recovery by delaying household formation and not buying homes. But Brena Swanson of HousingWire proclaimed that to be old news in her April 28^th article (Hey Millennials — You know nothing about housing finance; housingwire.com). She reported that many housing economists have declared 2015 as the year of the Millennial. Furthermore, she reported that by the end of 2015, Millennials are expected to be the largest home buying group; which may be derived from recent polls indicating that they believe it’s a good time to buy a home.

But don’t blame Millennials if 2015 doesn’t turn out they way housing economists expect. Why should the problems of a housing market be attributed to a generation who refuses to walk lockstep with older generations? Gen-X blogger, Jeremy Vohwinkle, pegged it in 2007 when he wrote about the problems with the housing market being rooted in an antiquated vision of the American Dream (The Real Estate Generation Gap: The Baby Boomers Are Trying to Sell, but Who’s Buying?; genxfinance.com). He proclaimed that the Baby Boom real estate cycle (starter home, upgrade to large home, downsize to retirement home) is not what younger generations want.

So, it’s not that the American Dream is dead, as some have thought; it is just being reinterpreted, most likely being restored to its original intentions. And rather than keeping up with the Jones’, it appears to be that the American Dream for Millennials is focused on increasing their quality of life – and whatever that brings with it.

April 23, 2015

Housing market is partying like it’s 2006

After month’s worth of good housing market news, many optimistic home buyers and sellers are preparing for their jump into the market. But some caution that not all the data is positive and the jump into the market should be taken with care.

Have you noticed when there is positive housing news, someone offers data that throws a wrench in the recovery party? Maybe we’ve just become overly analytical about the housing market, looking for reasons to be optimistic. If one month’s home sales exceed expectations, the buzz is about how the market is recovering and anecdotes about multiple offers and fast sales are talked about as if it is the norm. However, when there is a disappointing month, some will try to explain it away giving reasons such as winter weather (even though the data is already seasonally adjusted) or some other one-time incident.

If you haven’t yet figured it out, housing economics is not cut and dried – there is truth in opposing views. The good news is that those who are positive about the housing market are probably correct; the bad news is that those who urge caution are also probably correct. The truth is that since 2010, the housing market has cycled with a two year period oscillating between positive and negative data – one year showing promise, while the next disappoints.

Sure, home prices have increased in recent years, with the sharpest increase occurring from 2012 through 2013. But rebounding home prices are like the sword of Damocles hanging over the housing market: as home prices rebound, affordability has become an issue for many home buyers.

Furthermore, there is a consensus that interest rates will rise sometime in the near future; and some are worried about the effect on the housing market. Spencer Jakab of the Wall Street Journal made this clear in his March 30^th piece (Spring Puts Bounce in Housing Market: Home Prices May Get a Second Wind: wsj.com) by explaining the relationship between mortgage costs and affordability.

Jakab starts off by saying “The demise of the housing recovery has been greatly exaggerated.” And points out how home prices have rebounded, while February home sales were as good as (if not slightly better than) February 2014 (regardless of the two year cycle). He also indicates that although home prices have not reached their pre-crisis levels, they are at the highest levels since the crisis. However, he cautions those who are ready to call it a housing recovery trend. He states: “Once the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates, likely sometime this year, affordability will begin slipping. Say 30-year mortgage rates are a percentage point higher a year from now, and prices are 5% higher. Then a monthly mortgage payment, assuming a typical down payment, would rise by about 18%.”

Considering that average wages increased 2.1% during 2014, an 18% increase in the cost of home ownership could arrest home price appreciation and possibly cause a déjà-vu market liken to 2008-2009. If you don’t remember: homes were on the market for extended periods; home prices decreased; and home buyers and sellers retreated.

So why should we get all excited about a little good news? Rather than focusing on 2 data points each month (comparing a month’s data to the previous month, and the same month from the previous year), maybe it’s time to focus on the bigger picture.

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After month’s worth of good housing market news, many optimistic home buyers and sellers are preparing for their jump into the market. But some caution that not all the data is positive and the jump into the market should be taken with care.

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Copyright © Dan Krell