housing market Archives - Page 13 of 26 - Real Estate News and Commentary

March 26, 2015

Home buyer strategy to cope with a low inventory market

As the weather warms, many home buyers are venturing out making themselves known; only to be greeted with low inventories and higher list prices. The National Association of Realtors® March 23^rd press release indicated that nationwide low housing inventory is pushing home prices to grow rapidly; average home prices across the country increased 7.5% during February compared to the same period last year (realtor.org).

Much like the “tire kicker;” a typical home buyer visits selected open houses and lurks online to see what’s out there before talking to a lender and/or a real estate agent. While desiring to be low-key and pretending to be demure may be the strategy of choice; acting this way during a low inventory market could lead you to miss out on the home of your dreams.

If you’re part of this year’s home buyer cohort, prepare for a low inventory market by talking with a mortgage lender and a real estate agent before you begin your search. Working with an experienced agent and lender may increase your chances of not only finding a home, but getting your offer accepted.

Even though home buyers are instructed to get qualified for a mortgage before they begin looking for a home, it is often left until just prior to writing their first offer. A lender approval not only provides you the certainty of knowing what you can afford; it tells the home seller you are capable of buying their home.

Although getting a mortgage qualification letter today is more involved than it was in bygone years, it is for the better. To comply with new rules and regulations, lenders today require a formal application before they will provide you an approval letter that can accompany your offer to purchase. You will need to provide documents indicating your income and assets to determine how much you can afford as well as verify the funds for down payment and closing costs. The application not only helps you through the home buying process, it will make your mortgage process more streamlined too.

Although hiring a buyer agent is not always a consideration during the home search, your choice of agent could affect the outcome of your purchase. Choose carefully – research has indicated that real estate agents are not all alike; veteran agents positively affect your transaction and are more efficient compared to rookies. Experienced agents offer intangible services such as understanding the nuances of the housing market, as well as having an increased ability to engage the parties in the transaction. Additionally, it was found that home buyers who employ full-time agents have better outcomes than those who hire part-time agents.

Rather than waiting to choose your agent until you’re ready to make an offer on a home, meeting and interviewing several agents could help you determine their experience and commitment. Although most buyers think of savvy agents as being expert negotiators; in a low inventory market it also pays to have an agent who thinks outside the box to seek home sale opportunities that are not typically advertised in the MLS.

A low inventory housing market presents the home buyer with a number of issues. Working with an experienced agent and mortgage lender can help you through the ups and downs of the process as well as reframing your expectations to fit the reality of market.

Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

March 4, 2015July 6, 2019

How to price your home in 2015

In case you haven’t been following along closely, the March 3^rd release of CoreLogic’s Home Price Index (corelogic.com) indicated that nationwide home prices increased 5.7% during January compared to the same period last year; and there was a 1.1% increase during January compared to December. And believe it or not, CoreLogic stated that nationwide home prices including distressed sales are only 12.7% below the peak; and only 8.6% below peak if you exclude distressed sales.

Of course, national home price data are an average of regions that vary economically, reflected in their respective housing market. CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Frank Nothaft stated, “House price appreciation has generally been stronger in the western half of the nation and weakest in the mid-Atlantic and northeast states…In part, these trends reflect the strength of regional economies. Colorado and Texas have had stronger job creation and have seen 8 to 9 percent price gains over the past 12 months in our combined indexes. In contrast, values were flat or down in Connecticut, Delaware and Maryland in our overall index, including distressed sales.” The only 2 states that realized negative price appreciation year over year (including distressed sales) during January were Maryland and Connecticut, where home prices appreciated (–0.3%) and (-0.6%) respectively.

If you include distressed sales, Maryland’s January home prices appreciated (–0.3%) year over year, (-0.1%) month over month, and is (-25.3%) from the peak. Regional differences, of course, exist: DC home prices including distressed sales appreciated 3.3.% year over year, (-0.4%) month over month, and is only (-1.4%) from the peak; Virginia home prices appreciated 1.4% year over year, (-0.2%) month over month, and is (-15.6%) from the peak.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast projects nationwide home prices, including distressed sales, to appreciate 0.4% from January to February, with an annual appreciation of 5.3%.

CoreLogic expects consistent home price appreciation through 2015 and into 2016, due in part to a current shortage in housing inventory. Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic, stated that “Many homeowners have taken advantage of low rates to refinance their homes, and until we see sustained increases in income levels and employment they could be hunkered down so supplies may remain tight. Demand has picked up as low mortgage rates and the cut in the FHA annual insurance premium reduce monthly payments for prospective homebuyers.”

According to the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors® (gcaar.com) January Montgomery County single family home statistics, home inventory and home buyer activity increased compared to last January. Although total housing inventory increased 26.5% year over year, contracts (pending sales) increased 16.6%, and settlements (sales) increased 4.8%.

If you’re wondering how these statistics might affect your sale, you’re not alone; many home sellers are trying to shape a sensible marketing plan this spring, which includes deciding on a listing price. Consider that although listing inventory is currently relatively low, it is likely to spike within the next two months adding competition to a market competing for discerning home buyers.

Typical home buyers have been increasingly demanding value; besides looking for a “turnkey” (updated and ready to move in) home, they have also been sensitive to home prices. Since cash buyers are not as prevalent as they were two years ago, and many buyers are concerned about their monthly obligations and budgets; pricing your home correctly will be more important this year than it has in the past.

By Dan Krell
© 2015

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February 25, 2015July 6, 2019

Stumbling housing market reignites housing policy debate

Surely 2015 is to be the year when the housing market would bounce back from its recent disappointing performance; at least that’s what I wrote back in November. But as January’s news from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) is not as rosy as we expected; a housing policy debate, that has been subdued since 2010, gets heated.

The NAR revealed in a February 23^rd press release (nar.realtor) that although the pace of home sales increased compared to the same time last year, existing homes sales have declined to the lowest rate in nine months. The typically optimistic Lawrence Yun (NAR Chief Economist) was cited as saying “the housing market got off to a somewhat disappointing start to begin the year with January closings down throughout the country.” Adding that “seasonal influences” can make January data erratic, the combination of low inventory and home price gains over the pace of inflation seems to have slowed home sales – notwithstanding low mortgage interest rates.

Keeping mortgage interest rates low is not the sole solution; however, if it was, the housing market may have bounced back several years ago. Although a myriad of causes have been blamed for a lackluster housing market that has been trying to make a comeback for six years, most are correlational and incidental.

However, Richard X. Bove (Equity Research Analyst at Rafferty Capital Markets) recently made a case for a sole cause in his February 23^rd commentary (There’s a new mortgage crisis brewing; cnbc.com/id/102447414). Bove described how mortgage markets are in trouble; rules and regulations put into place to strengthen the market by increasing borrower standards have dried up a lot of the funding. And not necessarily in the way you might expect; besides shrinking the pool of qualified buyers, Bove suggested that the rules and regulations have made mortgage lending unprofitable and unpalatable for some lenders (leading them to walk away from the business).

As a response, it would seem as if the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) took steps to make mortgages increasingly available (returning to 3% down payment loans, and increasing the number of loans on Fannie and Freddie’s balance sheets). These actions, along with recorded losses in Q4 2014, Bove described, is making some nervous.

If you don’t remember, the FHFA was created in 2008 as a temporary conservator to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; whose original goals included: ensuring a positive net worth for Fannie and Freddie; reducing Fannie and Freddie’s mortgage portfolios; and facilitating a streamlined and profitable model for Fannie and Freddie.

Bove’s catch-22 conclusion, of either hindering the housing market by stopping Fannie and Freddie’s growth or increasing Fannie and Freddie’s debt obligations with continued growth, is not a new dilemma. The debate has been ongoing since 2008.

Having faded somewhat since 2010, the housing policy debate heated up during testimony given by FHFA Director Mel Watt on January 27^th during the congressional hearing, “Sustainable Housing Finance: An Update from the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency.” Trey Garrison of HousingWire succinctly portrayed opposing views (January 27, 2014; FHFA hearing: GOP fear housing policy headed for Crash 2.0; housingwire.com): “Democrats said policies in the past year are necessary to expand housing opportunities to lower income and challenged borrowers…” while, “…Republicans…said the administration is adopting dangerous policies that risk another housing crash that will put taxpayers on the hook for billions.”

By Dan Krell
© 2015

February 18, 2015October 5, 2019

New rules in Real Estate

Real estate canon used to be straight forward and for the most part consistent. For instance, if you planned a sale, you would target spring time because that was generally accepted as the time when home buyer activity was the greatest; or buying a home was a rite of passage. But since 2008, what was generally accepted has been persistently challenged; home buyers and sellers have shifted into a new paradigm with new rules.

It is no coincidence that Zillow Talk: The New Rules of Real Estate (by Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff and Chief Economist Stan Humphries, Ph.D.) comes at a time when significant changes in consumer beliefs and expectations about real estate have become widely recognized. The book is described by Zillow as “…poised to be the real estate almanac for the next generation.” And looking at the table of contents, you might think that the highly acclaimed tome is just another book about the buying and selling process; yet it seems to discuss practical aspects about buying and selling a home, as well as possibly confronting real estate myths.

It will remain to be seen how influential the work will become, as research has indicated that home buyers are typically well informed and out in front of housing trends.

A 2012 study by Karl Case, Robert Shiller, & Anne Thompson (What have they been thinking? homebuyer behavior in hot and cold markets. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 265-315) revealed perceptions and expectations of homebuyers from four metropolitan markets over a 25 year period. The authors concluded that the surveyed home buyers were well informed and very much aware of home price trends prior to their purchase. Data suggested that home buyer opinions (beliefs) fluctuated over time; there was more agreement among respondents during strong markets, and increased doubt during times of market uncertainty. There was also a strong correlation between price perceptions and actual movement in prices. Although home buyers were “out in front” of short term market movements, their short term expectations “underreacted” to actual home price changes; while long term expectations were persistently “more optimistic.”

Suggesting a set of “guidelines” for real estate is a trap that implies that the housing market is straightforward and static; where personal and regional differences don’t matter and the market doesn’t change. However, David Wyman, Elaine Worzala, and Maury Seldin raise the question about becoming complacent with trends and models. In a 2013 exploratory paper (Hidden complexity in housing markets: a case for alternative models and techniques, International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 6:4, 383 – 404) they discuss how rigid market models may lead to rules where buyers and sellers could make poor decisions.

The authors’ discussion of “complexity theory” in real estate in not unlike the application of “chaos theory,” which focuses on letting go of assumptions upon which rules are definitive; and view housing as a dynamic and changing environment. Citing incidents leading up to the financial crisis, the authors make a case for understanding the market as complex and using common sense before making (buying and selling) decisions.

So as we begin to understand the new real estate dogma, it is likely that the new rules will most likely change along with the market. And much like the housing market, consumer beliefs are also dynamic – which seem to be ahead of the industry experts.

January 8, 2015July 5, 2019

Making real estate sexy again

The go-go market of almost ten years ago was unique. The wealth aspect of the market seemed to have an effect on almost anyone who owned property; there was somewhat of a carnal attraction that had many home owners seeking more property and turning renters into home owners. It was no surprise that home ownership rates swelled to historic highs. Those who sold their homes or cashed out on their equity found themselves wealthier; while those who didn’t sell were happy to know their “paper wealth” was rapidly growing as home values realized monthly double digit gains.

At that time, the attraction to real estate for many seemed to be instinctive; the flirtation between home buyers and real estate may have been about a future of happy living and financial growth and security. Well, the sex appeal of real estate has worn off and seems to have been replaced by a “meh” attitude; probably indicating a lack of inspiration and/or interest.

Trying to regain the attention of home buyers, some agents have tried to re-establish real estate’s sex appeal. And it has been purposeful to attract home buyers by pairing homes with items that elicit carnal desire; listings are surrounded by exotic cars, modern art, and even sexy models have been credited to facilitate sales of luxury properties.

An April 2011 report by Julie Rose of WFAE 90.7 Charlotte (Realty Firm Uses Sex Appeal To Sell Luxurious Homes; wfae.org) described a photo shoot of a luxury home where, …” a blonde in tight jeans arches her back and tips a wine glass to her glossy lips. Her date leans closer, admiring…” But as Rose sates, “She’s lovely, but she’s not what you’re supposed to be looking at…” You’re supposed to be attracted to the kitchen features that seem to be a backdrop behind the model. However, the real estate agent interviewed said that the idea was to give an idea of what the home’s potential could offer.

Not all agents are on board with this technique, some have characterized the sexy advertising as “cheesy” and distasteful. One agent was quoted by Rose as saying, “It’s definitely gonna make someone stop and look at it. But once they’re in the listing looking at the pictures, I think they’re gonna focus a little more on the models rather than focusing on the home. And I think the bottom line is you want people to focus on the home.”

Sex appeal marketing is just a new take on selling a lifestyle. Lifestyle marketing has been the cornerstone of luxury real estate for years. For example, pairing fine art with luxury real estate has become commonplace; homes and condo projects have incorporated art collections to sell the lifestyle. In fact, the premier art show, Art Basel, has become the place to not only buy/sell fine art but high end real estate as well (Luxury Property Brokers Raring To Pounce On Wealthy Art Lovers At Miami Art Basel; November 28, 2013, Forbes.com). And for gear heads who want their homes built around their supercars, Miami’s über luxury Porche Design Tower will open in 2016.

Want to convey a lifestyle about your home? Before you hire models to pose in your home, consider talking to your agent about focusing on the things that made you enthusiastic and energized about your home. Chances are that the buyer of your home will be attracted to it the way you once were.

By Dan Krell
© 2015