housing Archives - Page 5 of 5 - Real Estate News and Commentary

December 16, 2010July 8, 2019

Optimistic about housing in 2011

Would you have ever imagined that home prices could depreciate one third since the market peak? 33.5% is the overall decrease of the Standard and Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index 10 city composite from June/July 2006 through April 2009. If the index is expanded to the 20 city composite the decrease is only 32.6%; the peak to date decrease (through September 2010) is just under 29% (standardandpoors.com).

Although the latest index indicates another decrease in home prices, the Washington, DC metropolitan area was one of two metro areas that had a slight increase (the other metro area was Las Vegas, NV). DC metro area home prices increased 0.3% in the third quarter of 2010, preceded by a 0.2% increase during the second quarter.

Similarly, the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index (HPI) also indicated an overall drop in home prices (a 3.2% decrease from Q3 2009 to Q3 2010). However, Washington, DC is one of ten cities that experienced price increases over the past four quarters (FHFA.gov).

If you haven’t yet become indifferent, some industry experts are expressing optimism for 2011 – for a change of pace.

Fannie Mae Vice President and Chief Economist, Doug Duncan, expressed cautioned optimism in Fannie Mae’s November Economic Outlook podcast (fanniemae.com). Dr. Duncan expects slight improvements in home sales and other economic factors in 2011. These slight improvements, along with expected low mortgage rates through 2011 will assist a slight recovery.

Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft shared some optimism in his December 6th commentary in the Freddie Mac’s “Executive Perspectives Blog, Insights on Housing Finance” (freddiemac.com). Dr. Nothaft expects that foreclosure inventories will continue to affect local markets and home prices. However, home affordability (which is at the lowest point in years) combined with low mortgage rates should give the housing market a boost in the second half of the year.

The National Association of Realtor’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, expects that the biggest push for the housing market will be through the extension of the Bush tax cuts. In a November 16th NAR press release, Dr. Yun explains that the recovery of the housing market depends on jobs. He expects about 1.5 million jobs to be created if the Bush tax cuts are extended for those earning up to $250,000, and an additional 400,000 jobs to be created “if the Bush tax cuts are extended for everyone” (Realtor.org).

Of course, many factors can influence our presently impressionable economy. For example, recent Congressional testimony by two Governors of the Federal Reserve Board (Elizabeth Duke on November 18th and Daniel Tarullo on December 1st) discussed the impact of foreclosures going into 2011 (federalreserve.gov). Governor Tarullo concluded his testimony to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs by stating, “…I regret to say that the hangover from the housing bubble of this past decade is still very much with us…”

The bottom line is that although most expect foreclosure inventories to continue to drag home prices, there is optimism – for the second half of 2011. As job numbers begin to improve, employment will be the big news. A slightly better employment picture combined with low mortgage interest rates and the most affordable housing market in decades will provide the spark that the housing market and economy have been seeking for over two years.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2010

Comments are welcome. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

September 15, 2010October 5, 2019

Assumable mortgages and housing

The case to expand availability of assumable mortgages

by Dan Krell © 2010

When the financial markets went into crisis mode a couple of years ago, ideas were tossed around to help a housing market sliding into an abyss. One of the least compelling and unpopular, yet sensible proposals in the last two year to assist the housing market was increasing the availability of assumable mortgages. Because the appeal of assumable mortgages is somewhat of a long term plan and the severity of the crisis was deemed to require immediate and direct intervention, the assumable mortgage will have to wait for its day to come (again). That day may be arriving soon.

Besides the criticism about being an unfeasible short term solution to the housing market on the brink, some of the assumable mortgage proposals were unnecessarily complex and suggested immediate changes to existing mortgages and deeds of trusts; in fact some suggested immediate interest rate drops of existing mortgages to provide incentive to home buyers to purchase homes assuming those mortgages. Critics of assumable mortgages also claimed possible interference to the secondary mortgage markets proclaiming additional loss to the industry due to reduced mortgage originations.

If you’ve never heard of an assumable mortgage, it is a mortgage that allows someone to take over mortgage payments from a home seller as part of a home purchase transaction. Up until the late 1980’s many home mortgages were assumable; however of the mortgages originated today, only FHA and VA mortgage programs allow the homeowner’s loan to be assumed.

The features of an assumable mortgage that make it attractive to home buyers and sellers also make it disadvantageous. Besides allowing a home buyer purchase a home acquiring a mortgage with a lower interest rate than prevailing rates, which can make the mortgage payment more affordable; the home buyer undergoes a streamlined credit and income qualifying procedure; which reduces the overall stress of the mortgage process.

The benefits of an assumable mortgage for a home seller include the possibility of using the loan as a selling point to buyers looking to qualify at a lower interest rate with a streamlined mortgage process.

The downside is that the seller’s mortgage interest rate may be higher than market rates. Additionally, if the loan is significantly less than the purchase price the home buyer will most likely have to come up with a higher down payment. Other disadvantages may also include assuming the terms and conditions of the loan- including penalties and any prepayment conditions.

Assumable mortgages assisted lagging housing markets of the past, when sky rocketing interest rates and tight credit made it difficult to buy a home. Like past housing slumps, today’s housing market can also benefit from assumable mortgages. Besides reducing some lending pitfalls, today’s low interest rates could be assumed at a later time (when interest rates may be significantly higher). Although assuming someone else’s mortgage may not seem attractive today, it’s clear that historically low interest rates will not remain at this level much longer; increasingly difficult mortgage underwriting guidelines and higher interest rates will certainly make today’s mortgage attractive to future home buyers.

A simple solution to a probable enduring sluggish housing market is to expand the availability of assumable mortgages beyond FHA and VA so home buyers will have more options and incentive to purchase a home in years to come; in good economic times and bad.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of September 13, 2010. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2010 Dan Krell.

March 18, 2009October 5, 2019

Market outlook: Banking on Bernanke

Confused about where the real estate market is headed? So are the pros. Realistically, the outlook for the housing market depends upon your perspective.

If you are a home owner, the almost 30% reduction in home inventory since last spring is certainly welcome news; the idea of less competition makes home sellers more optimistic about their homes actually selling. However, because they would be upside down (owe more than the sale price) if they were to sell today, many homeowners continue to wait for a more favorable market. Believe it or not, some home buyers have been turned off by bidding wars sparked by the reduced inventories of many low priced distressed homes for sale.

If you are a home buyer, reports of reduced home prices as reported by the increasing Home Affordability Index (HAI) is also good news. The HAI was 166.8 in January- an all time high (the higher the index, the greater the affordability)! Lower home prices combined with low mortgage interest rates make the current housing market the most affordable since the National Association of Realtors began tracking housing affordability in 1970 (Realtor.org).

Although optimists look forward to increased sales in the third and fourth quarter of 2009 due to pent up demand, the future may depend on other mitigating factors as well. Concerns of further sliding home prices and the state of the overall economy have had many potential home buyers keep their wait and see attitude. This sentiment was expressed during the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FederalReserve.gov), where reports of further concerns of devaluation in the housing market were discussed.

Additionally, many real estate industry insiders are concerned with the new Administration’s budget reducing mortgage interest tax deductions and increased home sale capital gains taxes (which some call an attack on homeownership). Even the ever optimistic Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, expressed concerns about the Obama’s administration’s move to restrict and lower some of the tax benefits of homeownership

Peter Hong of the Los Angeles Times (March 14, 2009: Plan to cut mortgage interest deduction stirs opposition) reported Yun to say that although the reduced mortgage interest deduction is aimed at two percent of all households, all home owners will be affected. Critics of the Administration’s new tax policies point to lower home prices in the “upper tier” sector, which will affect surrounding market areas and subsequently drive down home prices further in all sectors of the housing market.

Some are concerned about increasing mortgage interest rates due to impending inflation as a consequence of increased government spending. However, some economists point out that inflation fears are overstated because low consumer demand will keep inflation at bay.

Finally, it must be stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke discussed optimism for the American economy during a recent interview with “60 Minutes” (as reported by Fox News on March 15th). He stated that a recovery could begin as early as next year if banks are stabilized. If what Dr. Bernanke stated comes to fruition, and if the HAI and interest rates remain low, then it is possible that we could see home sales modestly increase by the fourth quarter of this year and rise significantly by spring of 2010.