Market report Archives - Real Estate News and Commentary

September 26, 2025September 26, 2025

The Fall and Winter Housing Market

What Maryland Home Sellers and Buyers Should Watch for in the Fall and Winter Housing Market

As the weather cools down, the Maryland housing market is shifting too. The fall and winter housing market typically changes. However, this year has a unique trend that’s guiding home buyer and seller decisions. Here’s what buyers and sellers should keep an eye on as 2025 winds down.

For Home Sellers

More Homes on the Market: There has been a noticeable increase in inventory this year, not just in Maryland but in other regions as well. That means buyers have more options, and homes may take longer to sell. If you’re listing your home, smart pricing and strong presentation are more important than ever.
Buyers Watching Their Wallets: With interest rates and economic uncertainty on their minds, buyers are still cautious. Highlighting the real value of your home, like energy-efficient systems, updated features, or flexible spaces, can help it stand out.
Seasonal Slowdown: It’s normal for buyer activity to taper off around the holidays. But don’t mistake fewer showings for lack of interest. The buyers who are active in November and December tend to be serious and ready to move.

For Home Buyers

More Choices, More Time: Compared to the past few years, Maryland buyers are seeing more homes available. Properties are staying on the market longer, giving buyers a little breathing room to shop and negotiate.
Mortgage Rates Moving in Your Favor: According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates have recently moved down significantly and are now below the historical average of about 7%. Even a small dip in rates can make a noticeable difference in your monthly payment. Buyers who stay engaged this fall could lock in financing that feels far more manageable than it did just a few months ago.
Motivated Sellers: Homes that linger through the fall often lead to opportunities. Sellers may be more open to negotiating on price, covering closing costs, or making repairs, especially if they want to start fresh in the new year.
Less Competition During Holidays: The holiday season tends to thin out the buyer pool. That means fewer bidding wars and more negotiating power for the buyers who stay active. While others pause their search, you could find the right home at the right price, and avoid the spring rush.

Keep an Eye on the Economy

Across Maryland, housing is closely tied to jobs and affordability. Federal workforce changes in the D.C. metro area, affordability challenges, and efforts to speed up new housing construction are all factors to watch. These dynamics could influence demand and pricing over into the next year.

The Bottom Line

Like most of the country, the Maryland housing market cooled from the frenzy of the past few years, but homes are still selling and opportunities are out there. Sellers should focus on competitive pricing and presentation, while buyers can benefit from increased inventory, seasonal advantages, and better mortgage rates.

The fall and winter housing market does slow down, but it’s a time when motivated buyers and sellers are active. Whether you’re buying or selling, stay informed, set realistic expectations, and make decisions with your long-term goals in mind.

What’s your home worth?

By Dan Krell

Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

May 20, 2025May 20, 2025

A Shifting Landscape

April 2025 Housing Market Report: A Shifting Landscape in Maryland-DC

The April 2025 housing market across the Maryland and DC Metro region paints a portrait of contradiction: inventory surged, buyer activity softened, and yet home prices pressed higher into record territory. This complex dynamic reflects a shifting landscape influenced by economic turbulence, workforce reductions, and a widespread push for return-to-office policies.

As the spring market unfolds, buyers and sellers find themselves navigating unfamiliar territory, where more choices and longer market times coexist with rising prices and regional volatility.

Inventory Surge: A Turning Point for Supply

The most defining trend of April was a nearly 50% year-over-year increase in active listings. With many more homes on the market by month’s end, buyers suddenly have options that were virtually nonexistent in the hyper-competitive climate of recent years. This expansion of supply is largely attributed to broader economic pressures and job-related relocations.

This dramatic uptick in inventory has begun to reshape the negotiation landscape, subtly shifting leverage away from sellers,though not enough to bring prices down just yet.

Persistent Caution

Despite the newfound abundance of homes, buyer enthusiasm has tempered. New pending sales were down 6.6% from April 2024, revealing that elevated mortgage rates, job insecurity, and broader market hesitancy are suppressing demand.

Prices Press Higher

In what may seem counterintuitive, median home prices hit a new record in April. The regional median reached $655,215,up 2.4% year-over-year,underscoring how limited housing availability in prior years continues to ripple through pricing.

This resilience signals that while demand has softened, sellers are still commanding strong prices,especially in premium or well-located properties.

Time on Market & Months of Supply: A Market in Transition

Homes are lingering slightly longer: the median days on market ticked up by 1 day overall, with condos seeing the most pronounced slowdown (+4 days). Correspondingly, months of supply increased to 2.36, up 0.74 months year-over-year,signaling movement toward a more balanced market.

While these numbers remain seller-friendly by historical standards, they mark a shift from the frantic pace of the past three years.

What It All Means

The April 2025 data reflects a housing market rebalancing rather than retreating. Inventory is rising, giving buyers breathing room. Prices remain firm, sustained by years of under-supply and cautious sellers. And while economic factors like job security and interest rates weigh heavily, they haven’t yet tipped the scales into a buyer’s market.

Looking Ahead: What to Watch

As we move deeper into the spring and summer selling seasons, several key questions will shape the trajectory of the market:

Will mortgage rates drop meaningfully enough to stimulate buyer demand?
Will the surge in inventory stabilize or continue to grow?
How will job market uncertainty,especially in government-heavy areas,affect buyer behavior?

One thing is clear: in 2025, the Maryland-DC Metro housing market is no longer a sprint. It’s a shifting landscape that requires a strategic game; where timing, property type, and location matter more than ever.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2025

Homes for sale.

June 24, 2022June 24, 2022

Housing Market Pause, Slowdown, or Collapse?

Is the housing market in a pause, going into a slowdown, or worse – headed for a collapse? Looking back to an article I wrote an article in the summer of 2018 asking the same question, we were at a similar point then and asking the same questions. Just like today, the summer of 2018 saw decreasing home sales after a sellers’ and sharply rising home sale prices. Instead of being in full swing, the housing market of the summer of 2018 was cooling down.

During that time, it was common place to hear about the impending doom and gloom in a housing collapse from the media. In hindsight, what occurred that summer was a normal reaction to an overheated market where stressed home buyers basically took a break. Even with the short pause, the housing remained an active and viable aspect of the US economy.

Housing, like other facets of the economy, go through cycles of boom and bust. Most are familiar with the extreme boom and bust cycles, such as what occurred during 2005-2007. However, many are unfamiliar with the concept of the mini-cycle. The mini cycle is a period of short-term growth and slowdown, modulating to maintain a relative balance. Instead going through a protracted cycle of expansion, hyper-supply, and recession, the housing market could be correcting itself via mini cycles.

Prior to the lockdowns of 2020, the housing market was in the process of correcting itself from sharp home price increases during a hot 2017-2018 market. At that time, home sale inventory was already at historic lows (which began in 2013). As you can understand, the lockdowns further exacerbated the home sale inventory shortage and pushing the housing market and home buyers into an unprecedented situation. The double-digit multiple offers and six-figure escalations pushed home buyers to the edge, exhausting and discouraging many.

After a year and a half of sensational activity and home price gains, it’s not unthinkable that home sales would correct itself. As reported in the June 21^st National Association of Realtors press release (https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-fell-3-4-in-may-median-sales-price-surpasses-400000-for-the-first-time), May 2022 home sales decreased 3.4 percent from April, and decreased 8.6 percent from May 2021. Home sale inventory continues to increase, and was reported to be about 2.6 months of supply, which gives home buyers more opportunities.

Home prices, on the other hand, continue to increase. As reported in the NAR press release, median home prices are 14.8 percent higher than a year ago! The $407,600 median home sale price is the first time the median sale price exceeded $400,000.

Of course, housing is also affected by outside economic factors, which are concerning to everyone. If you are in the market to buy or sell a home, look at the facts and make decisions that make sense for your situation. Finally, work with a seasoned professional to assist you to understand and navigate your local market.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2022

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May 20, 2019June 3, 2020

Mixed housing stats

This week’s National Association of Realtors press release (nar.realtor) sends mixed signals about the housing market. Reports of sluggish home sales and slowing home price appreciation is not what you would expect when the spring market should be humming along. But then again, mixed housing stats may be a vital sign of a healthy market in motion.

First, let’s talk about home sale prices. The NAR’s report on metro home prices and affordability indicate that the average home sale price for the first quarter of the year was $254,800. This is a 3.9 percent increase compared to the same time last year. Average home sale prices in the Baltimore metro area were slightly higher than the rest of nation at $275,300. Not surprisingly, Washington metro prices were significantly higher at $420,000 (a 6.5 increase from the same time last year).

The latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (spindices.com) is almost spot on with the NAR, indicating a 4 percent increase in home sale prices nationwide.

Affordability is always a concern when mixed housing stats confound the market. So, how much income do you need to qualify for a home? The National Association of Realtors Qualifying Income report indicates the average qualifying income for a 5 percent down conventional mortgage is $60,143 nationwide. The average qualifying income in the Baltimore metro area is slightly higher at $64,982. However, because of significantly higher home sale prices, the average qualifying income in the Washington metro area is $99,137.

The neighboring Baltimore and Washington metro areas highlight home pricing extremes in competing markets. Many home buyers who work in the Washington metro area are opting for longer commutes to make homeownership affordable. Others are opting for alternative work to not only lower their housing cost, but eliminate the commute as well. Commenting on affordability, NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun stated, “There are vast home price differences among metro markets. The condition of extremely high home prices may not be sustainable in light of many alternative metro markets that are much more affordable. Therefore, a shift in job search and residential relocations into more affordable regions of the country is likely in the future.”

Although home sale prices continue to climb, the national home sale picture is another story. The 1.2 percent increase in spring home sales compared to winter sales should be expected. However, the 5.4 percent decrease from last spring is a disappointment. According to MarketStats by ShowingTime (getsmartcharts.com), the number of homes sold in the Mid-Atlantic region decreased 4.77 percent year-to-date. There was a larger decline in Montgomery County, where there was a 7.25 percent decrease in home sales year-to-date!

Days-on-market is another fundamental indicator of the housing market. And, like home prices and units sold, days-on-market can vary depending on the local market. Homes in the Mid-Atlantic region are taking a bit longer to sell, as days-on-market increased 7.04 percent to 76 days. However, houses in Montgomery County are selling quicker, where days-on-market decreased about 13 percent to 65 days.

Mixed housing stats can confound home buyers, sellers, and their agents. But consider the analysis of David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. He stated that that home sale prices gains have been slowing down until recently. And although mortgage rates are lower, home sales have “drifted down” from their peak during February 2018. Even new home sales and residential investment have shown weakness since last year.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/05/20/mixed-housing-stats/

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019

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July 23, 2017October 5, 2018

Vacation homes declining

According to the National Association of Realtors 2017 Investment and Vacation Home Buyers Survey (nar.realtor), last year’s vacation home purchases plunged 21.6 percent! Last year’s decline in vacation homes sales comes at the heels of a huge drop in 2015, and has tumbled about 36 percent since the post-recession high marked in 2014. Are the statistics telling us it’s a good time to buy that vacation home you have been thinking about? Or is it that Americans are rethinking their view about vacations and retirement?

Of course, Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, feels that the decline is due a very tight vacation homes market that may likely make a comeback in the ensuing years. In an April 11^th NAR press release he stated that “In several markets in the South and West – the two most popular destinations for vacation buyers – home prices have soared in recent years because substantial buyer demand from strong job growth continues to outstrip the supply of homes for sale. With fewer bargain-priced properties to choose from and a growing number of traditional buyers, finding a home for vacation purposes became more difficult and less affordable last year.” He added, “The volatility seen in the financial markets in late 2015 through the early part of last year also put a dent in sales as some affluent households with money in stocks likely refrained from buying or delayed plans until after the [2016] election.”

However, another explanation given by the NAR is short term rentals, including airbnb. Short term rentals allow people to visit vacation and resort towns without committing to buy a home.

To give perspective about the tight vacation homes market, NAR stated that vacation home sales were only 12 percent of all transactions in 2016, a decrease from 16 percent in 2015 (and close to the recent low of 11 percent in 2012). Additionally, low vacation home inventory pushed sale prices higher. The 2016 median vacation home price increased 4.2 percent, which is a decade high of vacation home price growth.

A lack of inventory and rising home prices are sure to put a damper on the vacation homes market. But the slump could be a manifestation of something else.

Bloggers and columnists have reported a shift in the younger generation’s home buying habits for about a decade. The trend seems to be a rejection of the accepted industry standard home buying cycle set by older generations. For decades, the Baby-Boom generation has set the bar for home sales. Their views on home ownership and vacation homes have guided the experts. However, millennials have a different perspective, having a more conservative take on home buying and exhibiting a strong sense of value.

The NAR’s 2017 Investment and Vacation Home Buyers Survey pointed out that that the top two reasons to purchase a vacation home are for a family retreat and for retirement. However, just like the trend in home buying, millennials are redefining their retirement and vacation needs.

Expecting to work longer, Millennials’ idea of retirement is not perceived the same as the Baby-Boomer’s vision of retirement. Staying relevant and engaged is now more important than leisure.

Having a regular spot for the family to congregate and vacation is no longer highly desired. Millennials want the option to travel rather than visiting the same vacation spot every year. Millennials are also savers. They may view vacation homes as exorbitant and expensive. Even though the vacation is only a small portion of the year, there are regular expenses that may include a mortgage, property taxes, HOA fees, and maintenance.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2017/07/23/vacation-homes-declining/

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