Housing bubble countdown

The March S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (spindices.com) was announced May 31st to reveal a 5.2% increase in home prices.  Although down from last March’s 5.3% increase, home prices seem to be appreciating at a regular pace, with the metro areas of Portland, Seattle, and Denver leading the way with double digit gains (year-over-year price increases of 12.3%, 10.8%, 10.0% respectively).  As home prices climb, so too are the claims that we are experiencing a housing bubble.

Those concerned about the next bubble have been ringing the alarm bells since last fall, when the combination of limited inventory, multiple offers, and rising prices created an environment in some regions that was reminiscent of the go-go market just prior to the last market bust.  And like the broken watch that is correct twice a day, those naysayers may eventually be correct – but it may not be for another eight years.

How to predict a housing bubble

According to Ted Nicolais, the real estate cycle has been steady since 1800 (How to Use Real Estate Trends to Predict the Next Housing Bubble; dce.harvard.edu; February 20, 2014).  Writing for the Harvard University’s Department of Continuing Education’s The Language of Business blog, Nicolais maps out Homer Hoyt’s cycles and found a regular 18-year cycle to the bubble and bust housing market (albeit two exceptions).

The 18-year cycle, as it turns out can be observed by analyzing trends.  An applying Henry George’s four phases of the real estate cycle (as modernized by Glenn R. Mueller), Nicolais can determine how and when the next housing bubble will occur.  (Henry George was a nineteenth century economist who studied the boom-bust cycle of the economy).

The first phase is the “recovery.”  Home prices are at the bottom, and demand increases.  Real estate vacancies decrease as economic activity increases, which fuels the economy.

real estate bubbleThe second phase is the “expansion.”  Housing inventories dwindle, there is little is available to buy, and finding a rental becomes difficult.  Nicolais explains that an issue with real estate is that once demand increases, filling inventory takes a long time.  New development can take two to five years.  Until new inventory is added, price growth accelerates; and rather than valued at market conditions, real estate becomes priced to future gains.  During a real estate boom, people buy into the prospect of “future growth” and believe the escalating prices are reasonable.

Phase three is “hyper supply.”  When the completion of new development begins to satisfy demand, inventories fist stabilizes and then swells.  Price growth begins to slow.  Nicolais stated that the amount of continued development will determine the severity of the impending recession; while demand is satiated, new inventory comes to market and vacancies increase.  He asserted that “wise” developers stop building during this phase.

Phase four is the “recession.”  New development is stopped, while projects coming to completion add to a growing inventory.  Occupancy rates and prices fall; property values and profits dwindle.  Developments in mid-construction may not be completed because they are no longer financially feasible.

Following the four phases and the 18-year cycle; Nicolais stated that the great recession was not caused by external forces, but rather occurred on schedule!  He figures that the current housing market is transitioning from recovery to an expansion phase.  And with the exception of the occasional slow down, he predicts that the next housing bubble will be in 2024.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2016/06/03/housing-bubble-countdown/

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Real estate bargains

real estateThe typical real estate investor and the average home buyer have something in common – they both are looking for a home that makes financial sense, a bargain if you will. After all, who wants to overpay for their home? Although the investor’s priority is purely financial, a home buyer’s priority is a mix of lifestyle requirements that fits a budget. Even with priorities in line, both investors and home buyers don’t always recognize a bargain when it presents itself.

Finding a bargain home is not as easy as some will have you believe. Bargain hunters typically look for distressed properties such as foreclosures (also known as “bank owned” or REO homes) and short sales. Although there was abundant opportunity to buying such homes immediately after the housing crash, many were hesitant due to lack of market confidence. However, as confidence was revived in the housing market, the courthouse real estate auctions were once again attended home buyers and investors looking for good buys. And as home prices increased, so did the price for distressed properties; making it more difficult to find the bargain home. Even “motivated” home owners may not be as motivated as you think in today’s market.

This phenomenon is corroborated by a recent study of “bargain homes” by Trulia’s research blog. Ralph McLaughlin reported on January 7th (Where Is A “Bargain” Really A Bargain?; trulia.com) that advertised bargains were actually good buys in 55 of 100 housing markets. Furthermore, hot markets tend to offer less price discounting than cooler markets; home sellers are less inclined to make price reductions in markets where there is increased buyer competition. Locally, the Baltimore metro region was found to be in the top discounted markets for bargain homes (with an average discount of 11.3%); while the Washington DC metro region was found to be in bottom of discounted markets with an average of 4% discount on a bargain home.

It’s clear now that home prices were at the bottom during 2008-2009. At that time, home inventories swelled and there was an abundance of (what would seem today) “cheap” homes for sale. I wrote at that time (If Cheap isn’t Selling, What is?; May 28, 2008) about how cheap homes were not selling, and how home buyers changed their focus from “buy anything” to buying quality homes that impart value. Of course, one of the main reasons cheap homes were not selling quickly was that there was an additional cost associated with the purchase; most of the cheap homes were distressed and required rehab, or at the very least needed updates and minor renovations.

For most investors, the concept of a bargain home is strictly the result of numbers in a formula; and for some home buyers, the bargain may be about getting a good price. However, a bargain home could be more than just the price tag. Maybe the bargain home is also the “value added” home. Rather than just focusing on price, buyers should also be aware of a home’s potential. Of course there is always risk when buying a home, which we experienced during the financial meltdown eight years ago.

Regardless, many lament having not bought homes at or near the price bottom. But hindsight is 20/20. And what didn’t seem like a bargain just a few years ago, is in comparison to today’s increasing home prices and an active housing market, a missed opportunity.

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Overcoming challenges of a winter home sale

home saleSome might say that selling a home during the winter is advantageous because of limited seller competition. Although it may be true that there is less competition, there is typically less home buyer traffic during winter months as well. Additionally, many home buyers who look during the winter months expect home sellers to be more flexible about pricing, and may subsequently make a lowball offer. However, if you’re having your home on the market during the winter, preparation and marketing can increase your success.

Ideally, you have your furnace checked and cleaned annually by a licensed HVAC professional. But if you don’t, this might be at the top of your list to ensure your home is comfortably heated to warmly greet home buyers from the cold.

Checking the condition of the home’s roof, gutters and downspouts can lessen the impact of severe weather, including heavy snow and ice. Ice dams resulting from melted and frozen snow are known to lift roof shingles and siding – which can allow water to make its way into your home. Water penetration from ice dams can damage ceilings, walls and window casings. Left unrepaired, mold and possible structural issues may develop; which is obviously an issue when selling a home.

Snow and ice removal/treatment from sidewalks and steps is essential when selling your home, so as to lessen the possibility of someone slipping and getting hurt from a fall. Additionally, downspouts should also be cleared of snow to reduce drainage blockages, which can be a source of water buildup around the home’s foundation.

Another winter concern is plumbing maintenance. Problems with pipes can arise anytime the temperature falls below the freezing point. There is a misconception that frozen water inside pipes cause pipe ruptures; however, pressure that builds up from trapped air within frozen pipes is typically the culprit. A licensed plumber can advise you on preventing freezing pipes.

If you’re selling a vacant home, you might consider winterizing it. “Winterizing” is a term that describes the draining of the plumbing system. Winterizing may reduce the risk of bursting pipes and damaging plumbing fixtures. Hiring a licensed plumber to winterize/de-winterize may decrease the probability of damage to the plumbing system from any high pressure build-up. If you are out of town, you might consider having a trusted person regularly check on the home (even if you are listed with a real estate agent). This person can take care of any house related issues that may arise while you are away.

Decluttering your home can sometimes be a challenge; and during winter months, it can be even be more challenging to keep the home clutter-free. Winter is when we spend time indoors, creating comfort areas where we may accumulate “stuff.” Organization can help limit accumulation of winter clutter, but a daily tidy up may also be necessary to be ready for any buyer viewing.

Just because it is winter does not mean you should stop actively marketing your home sale. Having a winter pricing and marketing strategy can prepare for showings and negotiating with lowball offers. Weather permitting, winter open houses are a great way to allow potential home buyers to view your home in a controlled concentrated time period. Communicate with your agent about showing times and instructions; you may need additional notice for any last minute tidying as well as changing your availability due to the holiday season.

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Making sense of real estate market indicators

home sales statsIt used to be easy to figure out the strength of the real estate market, all you had to do was look at reported housing indices and it all made sense. Statistics were often verified and corresponded to other indices as well. However, since the financial crisis, there seems to be a disconnect between national and local housing indicators; gauging the market has become confusing – understanding what the indices measure and imply is often tricky.

Obviously, the best gauge to the health of the housing market is measuring existing home sales. Existing home sales is reported nationally and locally. The figure is important because it is a direct measure of the number (volume) of home sales during a given time period (usually monthly). National sales figures are often samples of MLS data, while local data are actual (raw) numbers. The statistic is used to chart annual sales trends; as well as a relative comparison to the same period during previous years.

Some have talked about the strength of luxury home sales as an indicator of the housing market. However, during a weak economy is weak, mid and low tier home sales tend to decrease; while upper bracket and luxury sales remain relatively strong. This bifurcation, where two distinct markets are derived from one, has emerged twice since the financial crisis; most recently earlier this year.

The National Association of Realtors® reports the Pending Home Sale Index, which is basically the number of homes that go under contract (pending sale) during a specific period. Pending sales are sometimes called a “forward looking” statistic because it is used to estimate how many homes will have sold for the year. Local pending sales are reported as a raw number of homes under contract. The statistic can be misleading because contracts fall apart for a number of reasons and may be one explanation as to why pending sales and existing sales may not correspond. Although the figure is not always indicative of actual sales, the figure is important because it reveals home buyer activity.

Another statistic relied on by many to determine the strength of the housing market are the home price indices (yes there is more than one). There are a number of national home price indices, and each has their own discrete methodology of measuring home sale prices. Some indices collect MLS data samples, while others use reported mortgage data. Average home sale prices help determine affordability, which can be an indication of buyers’ potential ability to purchase a home.

Some analysts talk about mortgage interest rates for much of the same reason one might follow home sale prices – to project home buyer affordability. The rationale is that the lower the interest the more affordable homes are and increase buyer activity.

Analysts also use new homes statistics to describe the strength of the real estate market. Included in this subset of housing data are new home sales and new home starts. New home starts is typically derived from the number of permits filed to build homes. Besides being a forward looking projection of new homes sales, economists follow new home starts figures closely because it can project construction employment as well.

Housing indices can be inconsistent. And while positive statistics may be reported nationally, it doesn’t necessarily correspond to the local market. Your real estate agent can provide insight to local sales trends and expected projections.

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

When is best time to sell a home

Housing Market

Buyers aren’t the only ones looking for a deal.  Home sellers are also looking for a good deal – which means they want to sell their home for the most money.  As it seemed as if the housing market had strong sales this year, some sellers are still trying to decide the best time to sell.  But unfortunately, timing the market may not be as easy as it seems.

Some say that spring is the best time of year to list and sell a home, while others believe that summer is better.  Old time real estate agents will tell you about a time when there was a traditional selling season, which basically started in March and ran through June.  In recent history, it seems as if the boom/bust market from 2005-2008 rewrote those rules.  During the “go-go” market, the spring selling season couldn’t start early enough; home buyers made their New Year’s resolutions and shook off the winter fog in early January to begin their home search.  For several years, it seemed as if home buyers started their real estate searching earlier each year to stake their claims on real estate before other buyers got wind of the listing.

However, once the bubble busted, home buyer activity significantly slowed, those who wanted to buy a home became increasingly methodical about their purchase as well as starting their search later in the year.  It seemed as if the best time to list and sell shifted from the spring time to summer months.

Since the downturn of the housing market, sales activity peaked in the summer months.  June has been a consistent contender for year high sale totals – until this year.  The July 22nd news release from the National Association of Realtors® (realtor.org) indicated that June sales “slipped” about 1.9% from May.  Granted, June’s sales are significantly higher than June of 2012, but the slowdown may just be a fluke or an indication of something else.

Maybe the combination of increased inventory (NAR reported that housing inventory was slightly elevated from May to about a 5.2 month supply) along with rising mortgage rates (Freddie Mac’s June national average commitment rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose to 4.07%) is making home buyers pause.

And surely home prices are making buyers have second thoughts; bargain hunters are having difficulty finding bargains.  June’s national median existing home sale price increased 13.5% compared to last June.  Distressed home sales, foreclosures and short sales that typically sell at lower prices, accounted for 15% of June’s figures (compared to last June’s 26%) and are at the lowest levels since 2008.  And although it may sound like great news, the double-digit jumps in the average home sale price may be a statistical artifact due to declining distressed home sales.

If you’re waiting to list your home for sale this year, you may have mistimed this year’s market.

Research has demonstrated that attempting to time the market may not always yield the best results – timing the market is much easier in hind sight.  Market timing appears to be much more than looking at selling activity cycles.  You should rely on the expertise of your real estate professional for neighborhood sales data and trends to assist you in deciding the price and the timing of listing and selling your home.

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By Dan Krell
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