Category: mortgage interest rates

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Rising mortgage interest rates – what that means for housing market

by Dan Krell © 2013
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Mortgage lendingOver the last few weeks, the 30 year fixed rate mortgage has slowly climbed from the historical low we have become accustomed over the last few years to well above 4%, as reported by Freddie Mac’s Monthly Average Commitment Rate as of July 3rd. And although it’s still relatively low and not bad as interest rates go; keep in mind that the mortgage rate averaged over the last 40 years is much higher – some report it to be 8.75%.

If you haven’t noticed, average mortgage rates have been below 7% for about ten years. And even when the housing market was bubbling, rates were not as low as where rates are today. After the financial crisis, mortgage rates were kept low by the Federal Reserve’s commitment to purchasing mortgage backed securities; which was an attempt to stimulate interest in real estate purchases at a time when the housing market all but screeched to a halt. Shortly after the Fed ended the mortgage backed securities purchase program, a broader securities buying program began with the intent to stimulate the overall economy; commonly called quantitative easing, this was considered the second round, which targeted the purchase of U.S. Treasury Bonds. The Quantitative Easing program was extended into a third phase (QE3) through 2013, which many are speculating will begin tapering off by end of the year.

Recent Fed comments may have hinted to tapering off the QE program, which could have been the source of some Wall Street panic earlier this month that resulted in a volatile market; besides affecting your 401k, the result has been a jump in mortgage interest rates.

Of course, many experts are worried about mortgage rate increases and the effect on home buyers, citing a decreased home buying ability as well as the possibility of suppressing existing homes sales. For some home buyers, it might be true that increased interest rates could be a wrench in their home buying plans; however, the reality may be that increasing mortgage rates are a sign that the housing market is healthier than some think.

Although mortgage interest rates are just one aspect of a multi-factor dynamic housing market; housing demand is not necessarily gauged by mortgage interest rates alone. For instance, the height of the housing bubble, mortgage interest rates were much higher than they are today. One sign that slightly increased mortgage rates have not negatively affected the overall market is a recent report by the National Association of Realtors (realtor.org) that May 2013 existing home sales (completed sales) increased about 11.4% compared to May 2012. Additionally, the NAR reported that existing home sales are the highest since 2009.

There has been criticism that the “artificially” low interest rates have helped home sale prices jump, especially during a time when there has been little housing inventory; some are concerned that increases in mortgage rates will pressure home sale prices lower. But just like the housing demand concern, these factors alone are not in a vacuum; factors today may warrant mortgage rate increases to thwart abnormal housing price spikes (which are common in bubble markets).

Of course, rising mortgage rates and the thought of paying more for a mortgage is not always good news to home buyers. However, given the circumstances and looking at the broader perspective, the result may be much better than anyone could imagine – a stable housing market.  But that is yet to be seen.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published the week of July 8, 2013 (Montgomery County Sentinel). Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

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“Exceptionally” low mortgage rates for buyers and owners

by Dan Krell
© 2012
DanKrell.com

Last week, the Fed issued a statement from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicating that the target rate was to remain between 0 and ¼ percent; and an “exceptionally” low rate is warranted through 2014. Although there were some bright areas of the economy, some sectors remain an obstacle- including housing (which was described as “depressed”).

The Fed’s estimation of the housing market appears contrary to the seemingly upbeat reports issued by the National Association of Realtors®, which recently revised downward several years’ worth of housing data. However, by keeping an ear to the ground, the Fed goes beyond the typical statistical analysis by collecting and analyzing anecdotal data from industry experts around the country. The anecdotes are compiled, analyzed and published eight times a year by the Fed as the “Beige Book.” Formally known as the “Summery of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District,” the most recent report indicated an overall feeling that home sales are sluggish throughout the country. Furthermore, the report from the Richmond District (which covers MD, DC, VA) indicates that although there were a few pockets of “strength,” a softened housing market was depicted citing the sentiment of some local real estate agents.

Getting back to interest rates, the Fed’s monetary policy of “exceptionally” low interest rates for some time could mean cheap mortgage money for you. There’s no telling how much lower mortgage interest rates can go, as we are already seeing some of the lowest interest rates in several generations. The interest rate on your mortgage is tied directly to your monthly mortgage payment; a lower rate typically means a lower monthly payment.

For home buyers, “exceptionally” low interest rates could result in a more affordable home purchase; buying a home today may possibly be cheaper than paying rent. Even if home prices continue at the current level during the next few years, home affordability can drastically change if mortgage rates rise.

If you currently own a home, “exceptionally” low interest rates could mean that you could possibly reduce your monthly mortgage payment. However, refinancing is not for everyone. According to the Federal Reserve Board’s “A Consumer’s Guide to Mortgage Refinancings,” refinancing may not be for you if: you’ve had your mortgage for a long time, your mortgage has a prepayment penalty, or you plan to move in the next few years.

For a typical mortgage, the proportion of the mortgage payment that is applied to principal increases through the life of the loan. So, if you’ve had your mortgage for a while, chances are that you’ve been increasingly paying toward the mortgage principal (and building equity). However, if you refinance, the mortgage life cycle begins anew and much of your payment would be applied to interest.

If your mortgage has a pre-payment penalty, you can be charged for paying off your mortgage early. Any pre-payment penalty should be considered in the total cost of the refinance so as to consider how long it may take to “break even” based on your monthly mortgage savings.

In today’s market, many home owners are putting off a move and refinancing instead. However, if you’re planning to sell your home soon after the refinance, consider the “beak even” point of your monthly mortgage savings. Selling your home shortly after a refinance could make the short term mortgage savings seem short sighted.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of January 30, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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Things we’ll be talking about in 2010

2009 was a year when many home owners lost their homes to foreclosure, while other home owners could not move due to their depreciated home values. Let’s also remember that 2009 was also the time when many home buyers took advantage of home buyer tax credits and reduced prices from distressed properties (which helped boost home sales statistics).

As much as it felt that 2009 was the tear down year for the real estate industry, 2010 is promising to be a re-building year; the upcoming year will lay the foundation real estate markets to come. So, you might ask, “how will things be different?” This is what we may expect to see in 2010: a change in home buyer attitude; rising interest rates; and “Cash for Caulkers.”

More home buyers will be searching for homes in 2010. However, continued changes in mortgage underwriting guidelines will most likely limit the number of qualified home buyers. Mortgage underwriting guidelines have been tightening through 2009 and will continue into 2010. The trend of shrinking the pool of qualified home buyers due to mortgage guidelines requiring increased down payments, higher credit scores, and reduced debt ratios will most likely continue as FHA’s new underwriting guidelines are anticipated in 2010. New FHA guidelines are expected to increase the minimum down payment to 5% and restrict debt ratios below 45% (for FHA mortgages).

Additionally, the current home buyer incentives are likely to sunset without any further extension; it is doubtful that home buyer credits will continue in its current form. As a result of having more “skin in the game,” it is possible that home buyers will be more conscientious during the home buying process; home buyers will take more time and be more discerning in their home search.

Mortgage interest rates are likely to increase through 2010. Having been relatively close to historic lows for nearly a decade, mortgage rates will most likely steadily climb as current Federal Reserve programs are set to end (already evidenced by a consecutive 4 week rise in the average 30-year fixed rate as indicated by Freddie Mac’s Weekly Primary Mortgage Survey). The Fed’s current purchase program of mortgage backed securities and agency debt, that was meant to assist the housing market and facilitate mortgage lending, is committed through the end of the first quarter of 2010. The Fed has already begun slowing the pace of these purchases, so as to ease the transition in the marketplace (www.federalreserve.gov/).

The most anticipated news for 2010 is the “cash for caulkers” program, also known as the “Home Star” program. Although many have speculated about the program and its guidelines, legislation has yet to be passed. President Obama, in a speech given at the Brookings Institute on December 8th, called on Congress “…to consider a new program to provide incentives for consumers who retrofit their homes to become more energy-efficient…”, and to emphasize passing of such as legislation (WhiteHouse.gov). The plan is supposed to offer tax incentives to home owners for increasing home energy efficiency through home energy audits, system replacements, and weatherization; however, the final legislation (if any) may have variants of the current proposal.

In the near future it may seem as if home owners may be talking more about retro-fitting their homes than moving, while more home buyers will complain of the mortgage process. Regardless, everyone is looking forward with optimism to 2010.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Permission to use this article is by written consent only.

by Dan Krell. Copyright © 2009

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How your interest rate effects you

Last week, I was in Starbucks talking about interest rates and the current real estate market. It was not unusual that I was in Starbucks nor conducting business there, as it seems that Starbucks, these days, maybe second to the golf course in the culmination of business. This day, I happened to be talking with Ken Cusick. Ken and I were discussing the vulnerability of those homeowners who purchased their home with adjustable mortgages, primarily interest only mortgages and their mortgage rates. Ken had a lot to say about this topic. Ken is the principal of Cusick Financial, LLC, a financial consulting firm located in Olney, MD specializing in residential and commercial financing.

Ken and I agreed that many homeowners have a great mortgage rate because of the historically low interest rates we have had recently. I expressed my concern about the many homeowners who have bought their home with an interest only or variable rate mortgage to either allow them to buy more home than they normally could afford, or to keep payments down. After all, the interest rates for these mortgages usually started between three to four percent. This cut the mortgage payment by at least a few hundred dollars a month, if not more.

Ken had a few things to say in response, as well as a few words of advice. First, Ken asserted that because the interest only and variable rate mortgages are tied to short term indices, they usually tend to be a better deal than 30-year mortgages (which are tied to long term bonds and indices). Depending on the type of index the mortgage is tied to, the interest rate can change annually or even as frequently as monthly. He stated that the unusually low interest rate environment we have had in the past five years has made housing more affordable, which paradoxically led to the significant increase in home prices we have experienced.

Second, Ken stated that those homeowners who have a fixed rate mortgage would always be able to afford their home as long as their income never decreases and they never need to sell their home. Even if there is a correction in the real estate market to lower home prices, these homeowners are in good shape.

Third, homeowners who have interest only or variable rate mortgages are subject to the volatility of the market as rates rise and fall, and are at significant risk. As interest rates rise, their monthly mortgage payments rise. Additionally, as interest rates rise, the cost of housing rises and housing demand decreases. This creates difficulty for those who were betting on interest rates to stay low because the affordability of the mortgage becomes an increasing burden on those who may not be able to afford higher payments. Add that to the possibility of their home being devalued increases the burden of loss.

Ken’s advice was simple. If the homeowner could not afford the mortgage payment with an increase of of interest by two to three percentage points, then they should refinance into a fixed rate mortgage. He admits the payment will be higher, but the comfort that the payment will not change should be peace of mind in an uncertain future.

If, however, the mortgage rate does not adjust in three to five years and the homeowner intends to sell in within that time period, Ken says to hang in there. The logic is that the only risk the homeowner takes is the possibility of the home depreciating in value. If the mortgage balance is 70% to 80% of the current home value, then the risk is much less.

To many, Ken’s advice would seem a bit too conservative. I, however, believe that this advice to be the consensus of good financial planning.

by Dan Krell © 2005

This column is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice.

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