Category: real estate

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Are you feeling lucky? Belief in luck may boost home sale

houseLuck is not an attribute that real estate agents will talk about during their listing interview. It’s true. Agents are apt to discuss many things, such as their success, their view of the market, and hopefully what they will do for your listing; but they won’t acknowledge that luck, or serendipity, may have had something to do with the success of some of their transactions. Recent research indicates that luck is actually an important characteristic in sales; and some are “luckier” than others.

Joël Le Bon, Professor of Marketing at the University of Houston’s Bauer College of Business, has been studying the relationship between sales and luck for some time. He recently discussed his research for the Harvard Business Review (Why the Best Salespeople Get So Lucky; hbr.org; April 13, 2015) saying, “…downplaying the power of luck, you stand to fall behind competitors who have learned how to manage it.”

That’s right – managing (or provoking) luck. Even though many “de-emphasize luck” and focus on tangible and measurable actions, Le Bon’s studies show that the combination of the belief in luck and specific sales behaviors have a mutual positive relationship. More precisely: believing in luck has a positive effect on sales behaviors; and exhibiting a specific set of behaviors increases the person’s luck in sales.

Le Bon gives an example how managed or “provoked” luck effects sales. A study of students selling golf tournament sponsorships revealed that those who believed in luck increased their sales 41% over those who relied on “standard sales practices.” And that “76% to 88% of the luck circumstances were incidences of provoked luck.”

Among the luck boosting behaviors that Le Bon listed, includes: competitive intelligence, mindfulness, and change circumstances are relevant to home sales. Those who are luckier tend to be: knowledgeable about the market, competitors, customers and prospects; mindful about their customers’ objectives and open to unexpected opportunities; and thinking outside the box by going outside their comfort zone and seeking new opportunities outside their sphere of influence.

Many successful listing agents also have these traits. Although not attributed to luck, their success could be viewed as “provoked” serendipity. However, they are often able to convert Le Bon’s list of actionable behaviors into successful sales and satisfied clients. Pricing homes accurately requires knowledge of local neighborhood sales trends, not to mention the overall market. Successfully negotiating transactions requires an understanding of buyers and their agents, as well as communication skills. Servicing a listing and being attentive to their clients requires being aware and addressing their needs. And of course, going outside their sphere of influence allows contacting and connecting with more prospective home buyers to sell their listing.

Even though luck, as such, is not recognized as an asset for your listing agent to possess; belief in luck seems to be part of a repertoire of beliefs typically described as a positive attitude – which has been demonstrated time and again as having positive effects on sales outcomes.

However, it’s not just your agent’s beliefs and actions that can affect your home sale. Your attitudes and beliefs can also facilitate or interfere with the sale. If you have a strong emotional attachment to your home, or have unrealistic expectations; your home may not sell, or you may be unsatisfied if it does –regardless of your agent’s skills. But then again, maybe all you need is a little luck.

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

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Boomerang buyers return – qualifying after foreclosure or short sale

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There is homeownership after a foreclosure or short sale. Home owners, who lost their homes to foreclosure or short sale during the housing downturn and recession, are apparently returning to the housing market in increasing numbers, such that their home buying activity is attracting economists’ attention.

Ken Fears, the National Association of Realtors® Director of Regional Economics and Housing Finance, wrote for the NAR Economist’s Outlook Blog (Return Buyers Prefer Safe, Affordable Financing; economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org; June 25, 2015) about the research and numbers associated with home buyers who previously lost a home. These “boomerang buyers” accounted for about 8% of home sales during 2014. Considering that there were about 9.3 million home owners who lost their homes between 2006 and 2014, the estimated 350,000 boomerang home buyer sales during 2014 may be just the beginning of the “homecoming.”

If you are a boomerang buyer, there may be a home in your future. Conventional, FHA, and VA mortgage underwriting guidelines have typically allowed for foreclosure, short sale, or bankruptcy with re-established credit and a waiting period. However, easing mortgage requirements may make it easier for you to qualify for a mortgage.

Fannie Mae underwritting guidelines (fanniemae.com) require you to wait at least seven years after a foreclosure, which is typically measured from the reported foreclosure completion date. If you had a short sale, the waiting period is four years. However, if you had a bankruptcy, you’ll have to wait four years after a chapter 7 bankruptcy is discharged; and two years after a chapter 13 is discharged (but four years if the chapter 13 is dismissed). However, if you had multiple bankruptcies within a seven year period, a five year waiting period from the most recent discharge or dismissal date is required.

FHA (hud.gov) has changed significantly in recent years. Besides reducing waiting periods due to extenuating circumstances, there are various caveats that may further reduce your waiting period. Nevertheless, the typical waiting periods include: three years after a foreclosure, two years after a chapter 7 bankruptcy discharge, and one year if you are current on a chapter 13 payment plan. The waiting period after a short sale is differentiated depending if the loan was in default: if the loan was not in default at the time of the short sale and your previous 12 months payments were timely, you may be eligible for a FHA mortgage without waiting; however if the loan was in default prior to short sale, you will have to wait three years.

If you are eligible for VA financing (benefits.va.gov), you will have to wait two years after a foreclosure, short sale, and chapter 7 bankruptcy (one year into a chapter 13 payment plan with court approval). However, if your foreclosure or short sale was on a VA mortgage, then your eligibility amount may be reduced.

Waiting periods may be significantly reduced if you can document that your foreclosure, bankruptcy, or short sale resulted from extenuating circumstances. However, such applications are subject to underwriter discretion; and not all lenders grant such exemptions.

If you are a boomerang home buyer, it is crucial that you consult with a lender before embarking on the home buying process. Besides guidance on mortgage eligibility, your lender can help you determine the appropriate mortgage for your circumstances. And as your lender will tell you, timelines and qualifying requirements are subject to change.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2015

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

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EMP’s, solar flares and your home – are you prepared

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Your home takes on different functions at various times. Maybe you think of your home as place of relaxation and entertainment, or maybe it’s where you create gourmet meals. And although much of the living you anticipate in your home may be for enjoyment – will your home be a suitable shelter to protect you and your family?

To bring attention to preparedness, the Centers for Disease Control (cdc.gov) played on pop-culture in a 2011 posting of a tongue in cheek account of preparing for the Zombie Apocalypse. The result of this and other efforts increased awareness of planning for emergencies and severe weather. As a severe weather event might inconvenience you for as much as a day or two, preparedness experts have since turned to preparing for and the aftermath of Katrina-like events, or worse – the takedown of the electric grid.

Preparedness experts have recently brought attention to the electric grid’s vulnerabilities with reports of hacking and alleged terrorist activity. However, one weakness that has been talked about in recent years, although has been known since the cold war, is the electromagnetic pulse (EMP). R. James Woolsey and Peter Vincent Pry, in their August 12, 2014 Wall Street Journal article (The Growing Threat From an EMP Attack; wsj.com), describe EMP’s, the aftermath, and preparedness. Woolsey and Pry quoted a 2008 EMP Commission report that estimated “within 12 months of a nationwide blackout, up to 90% of the U.S. population could possibly perish from starvation, disease and societal breakdown.”

Alternatively, the effect of a direct hit of a coronal mass ejection (CME) would be very similar to an EMP; causing “widespread power blackouts, disabling everything that plugs into a wall socket…” Although 1859 was the last time a CME hit the Earth (when most of daily life did not depend on electricity), a CME barley missed the Earth (by several days) during July 2012. Scientists estimate a 12% chance of being hit by a CME in the next ten years (Near Miss: The Solar Superstorm of July 2012; science.nasa.gov; July 23, 2014).

Although discussions about EMP’s and CME’s seem extreme; it should make you think about your preparedness level. If you don’t yet have (or need to update) a plan, preparedness information is available through government agencies such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (ready.gov). FEMA’s “Are You Ready? An In-depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness” interactive course is “a training program designed to help the citizens of this nation learn how to protect themselves and their families against all types of hazards…” and is a comprehensive source on individual, family and community preparedness (www.ready.gov/are-you-ready-guide).

Locally, the Montgomery County Office of Emergency Management and Homeland Security offers a resource library of information to prepare for and the aftermath of emergencies (montgomerycountymd.gov/oemhs/).

In addition to having an emergency plan, experts recommend reviewing your homeowners’ insurance policy to ensure of adequate coverage as well as compiling an inventory of your home’s contents; this is supposed to help you recover quicker from disaster. Additional recommendations include (but are not limited to) mitigating weather related damage: making sure your home’s doors and windows are secure and impermeable to weather, and also ensuring your roof and gutter system is well maintained (draining water at least five feet from your home); as well as removing debris and dead trees/shrubs from the home’s perimeter.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2015

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

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DANGER Report not a mea culpa – but forecasts issues affecting housing market

real estateNews about the D.A.N.G.E.R. Report is making the media rounds, but maybe the excitement is more hyperbole than news. And contrary to the recent hype, the D.A.N.G.E.R. Report is not a mea culpa by the National Association of Realtors®.

D.A.N.G.E.R. is an acronym for “Definitive Analysis of Negative Game changers Emerging in Real estate.” The Report was commissioned by the National Association of REALTORS® as that is part of the NAR Strategic Thinking Advisory Committee’s attempt to identify issues affecting the future of the industry; the Swanepoel | T3 Group researched and authored the Report, which identifies trends and offers the residential real estate industry an impact assessment.

Described as a “…mix of yesterday, today and tomorrow…” the Report is intended to assist those in the industry to “…anticipate the forces taking shape that we can’t yet see;” by pointing out possible challenges, threats, and opportunities. Although the result is meant to “inspire” discourse, the reception has so far been mixed. NAR CEO Dale Stinton was quoted to say, “The D.A.N.G.E.R. Report is like 50 things that could keep you up at night. It isn’t a strategic plan. It isn’t telling you to do anything. It’s 50 potential black swans. It’s for your strategic planning processes. Digest it and cuss and fuss and decide whether it’s right or wrong…” (Anrea V. Brambila; ‘Danger’ report alerts industry to 50 biggest threats; inman.com; May 15, 2015).

One issue highlighted in the Report that has attracted the media attention is agent competency and ethics. The use of Report quotes such as, “the real estate industry is saddled with a large number of part-time, untrained, unethical, and/or incompetent agents…” is as if some in the media are saying “we told you so.” But the truth is that competency does not guarantee ethical behavior, and vice versa; the answers, like the issues, are more complex than you might expect – and do not assure advancement.

Like many of the issues reported in D.A.N.G.E.R., concern about agent competency and ethics is not new. The National Association of Realtors® has for years tried to influence public opinion of Realtors® and the industry by publicly promoting the high ethical standards by which Realtors® are held. Many are unaware that a code of ethics was adopted in 1913 by the association, and has since strived to instill and maintain a high level of integrity in the field. And yet with such emphasis on ethics, you might expect that public opinion would be much higher, but the limited research on consumer perception of ethics is mixed at best. And according to one study, consumers consider price, quality, and value more important than ethical criteria in purchase behavior (The myth of the ethical consumer – do ethics matter in purchase behaviour? The Journal of Consumer Marketing. 2001;18(7),560-577).

The D.A.N.G.E.R. Report may have missed the mark by not acknowledging that the industry’s transformation over many decades has been mainly influenced and driven by market forces, regulation, and technology. Discussing “black swans” with regard to these three areas may have been more valuable and practical to professionals and consumers.

However, as much as we try to identify unforeseen events; they are just that – unexpected and unanticipated. Take for instance the extreme changes that have occurred over the last ten years in the real estate industry – much of which were due to market forces, regulation, and technology.

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

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The cost of doing nothing – deferred maintenance and home values

HousesIf you want to have one of the faster home sales in the area, you’re probably going to have to wait until you die. According to a 2012 study, “estate sales” sell faster than other homes. Benefield, Rutherford, & Allen’s study compared time on market and price of estate sales to regular sales, and quantified what many ostensibly know: estate sales sell about 3.4% faster and about 3.6% less than other homes (Justin, D. Benefield, C. Rutherford Ronald, and T. Allen Marcus. “The Effects of Estate Sales of Residential Real Estate on Price and Marketing Time.” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 45.4 (2012): 965-81).

Although the study is one of many recent studies raising awareness about real estate outcomes in our aging population, one of the main considerations for the rapid time frame and discounted sale price is deferred maintenance; and the issue of postponing home repairs and updates is prevalent among all age groups.

Before Kermit Baker wrote “The Return of Substandard Housing” for the Harvard Joint Center of Housing Studies, it was not quite known how much less home owners spent on home maintenance during and immediately after the Great Recession. However, the 2012 study indicated that “improvement spending” decreased 28% between 2007 and 2011, which essentially “erased” such spending during the housing boom (housingperspectives.blogspot.com).

And as the economy slowly improves and home prices increase, you might expect that home owners will reduce deferred maintenance and once again spend on home improvements. According to Craig Webb (Remodeling Activity Rose Again in 1Q, RRI Shows Nation remains on track to hit record remodeling pace this fall; May 18, 2015; remodeling.hw.net), the Residential Remodeling Index (RRI) increased 1.4% in the first quarter of 2015 compared to the previous quarter, indicating that improvement spending is indeed on the rise (albeit below the 2007 peak).

But what’s the cost of doing nothing? Deferred home maintenance is cumulative, and its effects can be wide ranging. For many, having put off home maintenance and repairs has impacted home sales in recent years, and may continue to be a factor in years to come. Although average home prices have increased, many home owners have found that a lack of home maintenance, repairs and updates over the years is an impediment to selling their homes at higher prices – or even at all.

A mindset exists among many home owners, and even real estate agents, that years of deferred maintenance can be overcome with some updating and minor repairs just before a home sale. And although improvements will certainly make your home more appealing to home buyers, it won’t necessarily increase your home’s value as much as you think (or as much as you’ve been told).

Before undergoing any project, crunch the numbers and determine the value of your repairs/updates, and how that might realistically affect your estimated sale price. Remodeling Magazine’s annual Cost vs. Value Report (costvsvalue.com) can give you an idea of the return-on-investment (ROI) for improvement projects. Getting back to your expectation of adding value – most improvement projects will only return a fraction of the cost in today’s market.

If you are making improvements, you should consider hiring reputable, licensed contractors who are familiar with the permitting process and building code requirements; because ROI is not always determined by the amount spent on the project, but on the quality of workmanship as well.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2015/06/12/the-cost-of-doing-nothing-deferred-maintenance-and-home-values/

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

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