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June 18, 2014August 11, 2019

Oil prices and housing, is there really a link?

It seems that anytime there is turmoil in the Middle East, there is concern over disrupting the oil supply and spiking energy prices – notably at the gas pump. Spiking gas prices not only makes everything seem more expensive, it has been thought to compel people to re-think their home buying strategies as well. Is the chaos in the Middle East and increasing oil prices coinciding with a shift in home sale trends?

Gregory White, of Business Insider (businessinsider.com), stated that “The simple reason why a rise in crude prices could tank the housing market is that it has done it before.” This is not a recent story; no, White wrote this in a March 6^th 2011 piece titled: “Barclays On How The Oil Price Spike Could Crash The Housing Market Again.” The article was a brief commentary on Luca Ricci’s (who was at Barclays at the time he was quoted) analysis of the possible consequences of the surge in oil prices to the U.S. housing market.

Ricci was quoted to say, “The main effect is on consumption via gasoline and energy prices. As consumption generally accounts for 60% of GDP, the effect is large. In oil exporters this effect will be offset by windfall revenues from the higher oil prices, so the overall effect is unclear. In our view, the oil price increase in 2008 significantly contributed to the recession and the financial crisis in the US, which then spread globally. By raising CPI inflation, it reduced real disposable incomes and, hence, the purchasing power of the average households, leading to a contraction in real consumer spending and lowering the ability to repay mortgages.”

Indeed, a 2008 sharp increase in gas prices and road congestion was a factor for many to re-think their home location. It was not only those living in suburbia whose idea of an ideal home shifted toward saving fuel costs; home buyers at that time, who did not put their housing search on hold, looked for a home that was closer to their work or easily accessed some form of mass transit. A National Association of Realtors® (realtor.org) study reported that 28% of home owners surveyed indicated that high fuel costs were a decision to sell their home, while 40% of home buyers surveyed indicated that high fuel and commuting costs offset the higher home prices closer to the city center.

How much could you save by moving closer to your office? Based on the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority Savings Calculator (WMATA.com), eliminating 20 miles of daily driving can save over $224 per month or $2,688 per year (estimates at the date of this article). And if gas prices peak like they did in 2008, savings from curbing your driving could be double – or more!

However, while the immediate focus may be on saving on energy costs, urban living could have a trade off in higher property taxes and housing costs. And as much as increasing oil and gas prices may have an indirect effect on the housing market, the urbanite trend may be more about convenience and a healthier living style rather than saving money on gas and commuting costs. Nonetheless, the urban living trend surged in 2010, when sales soared in planned walkable communities with embedded shops and services. Market demands resulted in suburban renewal, where planned urban villages were built (and are being built) in convenient locations; which have also become destinations for the community’s restaurants, shops and offices.

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By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2014

Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

June 11, 2014July 4, 2019

Forget GDP – real estate is still a local phenomenon

Are you one of those who are ignoring the recent negative GDP report? Or are you chalking it up to the weather or other factors? If you are unaware, the May 29^th news release by the U.S. Department of Commerce – Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov) reported that the Gross Domestic Product for the 1^st Quarter 2014 was revised to -1%. Of the number of reasons cited was a negative contribution from residential fixed investment (basically poor home sales).

Although one poor quarter is not a trend, two consecutive quarters of negative GDP could be considered a recession. But this rule of thumb is not always accurate – after all, this is the second time during the current recovery we have had a negative GDP. Many economists are not concerned and expect a rebound, citing the recent employment report; while some are very concerned, citing the low employment participation along with declining personal income and spending.

I hear you saying: “Ok, even though home sales have been lacking, home prices have been increasing,” which is a sign of strength in the housing market. According to an analysis by Ray Valdez (The housing bubble and the GDP: a correlation perspective: Journal of Case Research in Business & Economics; June 2010, Vol. 3, p1), there is a strong relationship between GDP and home prices. Local data for Montgomery County MD during May 2014 not only indicates a year over year decrease in sales volume, but average home sale prices may have decreased bout 1% compared to May 2013. Other indications that the local housing market is cooling this year is the sharp increase of new listings, and a lower absorption rate of listed homes.

The BEA GDP release also cited Gross Domestic Income for the 1^st Q as decreasing 2.3% (compared to the 2.6% increase the previous quarter). Putting income in perspective, Rick Newman of Yahoo’s “The Daily Ticker” (The Middle Class is Even Worse Off Than the Numbers Show); “The “average” American worker earns about $44,000 per year and saves around 4% of his income. And the “average” household has a net worth of approximately $710,000, including the value of homes, investments, bank accounts and so on. But many Americans, needless to say, fall well below those benchmarks, which fail to capture widespread financial distress…” Newman points to the growing wealth of the affluent as skewing income data: “The rich have always skewed wealth and income data to some extent, since they pull up averages and make ordinary people seem a bit better off than they really are. But the outsized gains of the super-rich during the past 25 years have become so disproportionate that some measures of prosperity may be losing their relevance.”

If you’re concerned about mixed economic reports affecting the housing market and possibly your sale or purchase; you can take heart in the notion that the current environment is different than that of the Great Recession. Some economists expect a rebound, citing relatively low mortgage interest rates and some loosening lending standards as incentivizing home buyers.

Nevertheless, real estate is still a local phenomenon; and just like the differences between regional markets, external influences can create differences among geographical areas as well. If you’re planning to be in the market, consult with your real estate agent about recent neighborhood data and trends to assist you with your pricing strategy.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2014

June 4, 2014July 4, 2019

How long before your home is obsolete?

How long can your home remain livable? According to a study by the National Association of Home Builders / Bank of America Home Equity titled Study of Life Expectancy of Home Components (February 2007), “The life expectancies of the components of a home depend on the quality of installation, the level of maintenance, weather and climate conditions, and the intensity of use. Some components may remain functional but become obsolete due to changing styles and preferences or improvements in newer products while others may have a short life expectancy due to intensive use…The average life expectancy for some components has increased during the past 35 years because of new products and the introduction of new technologies, while the average life of others has declined…” (nahb.org).

Throughout a home’s lifespan, a home may be considered obsolete in a number of ways. A home is often considered functionally obsolete when it is deficient of items that are considered to be required in the present marketplace, and/or no longer conforms to modern building standards. Because building standards change over time, it is not uncommon for older homes to be considered functionally obsolete because it lacks up-to-date and/or enough amenities. Even modern homes can become functionally obsolete if maintenance issues deteriorated the home’s systems (such as during a fire, or severe hoarding cases).

The decrease in maintenance spending during the Great Recession has many wondering about today’s housing stock’s functional obsolescence. A February 2013 article by Kermit Baker for the Harvard Joint Center of Housing Studies entitled “The Return of Substandard Housing” highlighted the relative considerable reduction in maintenance spending by home owners (housingperspectives.blogspot.com). He stated that “improvement spending” decreased 28% between 2007 and 2011, and concluded that this “crisis” requires attention. He stated; “The longer-term fate of the current slightly larger number of inadequate homes [functionally obsolete] is unknown. Many of these homes likely will be renovated to provide affordable housing opportunities. However, many may not recover without extra help. Given the extraordinary circumstances that many homes have gone through in recent years, particularly foreclosed homes that often were vacant and undermaintained for extended periods of time as they worked their way through the foreclosure process, they may be more at risk than their inadequate predecessors…”

Economic or external obsolescence is often considered when influences, other than the structure, impact a home’s value. For example, the value of a well maintained home can be impacted when many community homes are vacant: due to foreclosure; or when there is a major relocation, such as when a small town’s manufacturing plant closes. Environmental issues can also be considered a factor in external obsolescence; you can bet that the homes around the Chernobyl nuclear plant were affected immediately following the 1986 disaster.

Although the remediation of external obsolescence is often complicated, the good news is that many functionally obsolete homes can be repaired extending their life; renovations are common, upgrading the homes to meet modern building codes and with modern amenities. However, a restoration is sometimes completed to return a home to its original condition – but with modern conveniences; these homes typically have historic significance.

And of course, functionally obsolete homes are sometimes sold as a “tear down”; with the intention to replace the structure with a modern home that not only meets current building standards, but meets consumer trends in home design, size, and function.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2014

May 28, 2014August 8, 2019

Luxury home sales outpace mid-low tier sales

What seemed like the breakout year in real estate may turn into a hard act to follow. Although the National Association of Realtors® May 22^nd news release made headline news by skillfully pointing out that April existing home sales increased 1.3% from March; April’s sales data were 6.8% lower than last April. Much like the assertion to “Keep Calm and Carry On,” the spin on data may bean attempt to motivate home buyers and sellers.

The Greater Capital Association of Realtors® home sale statistics were consistent with NAR’s, such that Montgomery County MD single family home sales decreased about 8.2% in April compared to the same time in 2013. Looking deeper, the numbers reveal a similar scenario that played out in 2011 when a bifurcated market emerged between upper bracket and middle to low bracket homes. Sales of upper bracket homes are doing very well this year, while moderate to lower bracket homes sales are decreasing compared to last year. And much like 2011 when luxury home sales hit record prices (when DC’s Evermay and Halcyon House sold); 2014 is also a year of record luxury home sales (LA’s Fleur-de-Lys sold for $102M, CT’s Copper Beech Farm sold for $120M, and a NY mansion sold for $147M; each sale successively breaking the record for most expensive residential US home during a 5 week duration!). Consistent with this theme: cash sales are increasing this year, while first time home buyers are decreasing.

While the housing market may be shaping up to be similar to that of 2011, the reasons for a similar profile are different. We were looking for the market bottom during 2011, as well as assimilating an unprecedented number of distressed properties. However, even though distressed sales are rapidly decreasing; 2014 was supposed to be an extension of last year’s increased sales activity.

What we may be experiencing is the flip side to the housing crisis, as described by Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac Vice President in his May 19^thblog post (Nearly One-Third of Americans Live in Counties Where One in Five Homeowners is Underwater: Heat Map; RealtyTrac.com). Blomquist characterized the lack of participation in today’s market as being from the unusually high number of home owners with high loan balances on their home, including the many whose mortgages are underwater. This lack of participation is much like the many homes taken out of the market because of the foreclosure crisis during the downturn. He stated that the “normal flow [of move-up buyers] is being disrupted by homeowners with negative equity who are holding back from becoming move-up buyers, which in turn is impacting the availability of inventory downstream for first-time homebuyers.” According to RealtyTrac, those who are “seriously underwater” (125% or higher of loan balance to home value) account for 11% of Montgomery County MD home owners, while the county average loan balance to home value is about 79%.

The idea of the inactive move-up buyer is not new. In fact it seems to be that move-up buyers were lacking after other deep recessions; the August 17, 1985 article published in the Chicago Tribune titled, “Move-up Buyer Provides The Base For A Recovering Housing Market” is a testimony for such behavior. The timing for the move-up buyer is likely correlated to the time necessary to either recover lost equity; or reach a comfort level for the net amount gained in their home sale.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2014

May 23, 2014July 3, 2019

Local level home owner and buyer protection

Home owner and buyer consumer protection exists at all levels of government. For example, the creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (consumerfinance.gov) in 2010 brought together in one department oversight and enforcement for federal consumer financial laws. Likewise, Maryland has a Consumer Protection Division housed within the Office of the Attorney General (www.marylandattorneygeneral.gov); which provides information to assist consumers in making educated decisions, as well as offering mediation services to resolve consumer complaints. Some of the housing related consumer advocacy offered by the CPD includes: the administration of the Home Builder Registration Unit; and education about the Maryland Foreclosure Counseling Services Law, as well as “flipping scams.”

Many local governments also have a number of specific protections for home owners and buyers. An advantage of living in Montgomery County MD is the availability of housing related services and assistance with specific housing issues to home owners, buyers, renters and landlords.

To assist home buyers in understanding the associated costs of home ownership, Montgomery County requires sellers to disclose utility and estimated property tax information. Enacted in 2007, Bill 24-07 requires home sellers to provide an accurate estimate of what the property tax would be for the first full year of ownership. Home sellers and real estate agents access the estimated property tax information from the Montgomery County Office of Consumer Protection website (montgomerycountymd.gov/ocp).

The OCP also enforces the County’s utility bill disclosure law that requires home sellers to provide a history of the prior 12 months of electric, gas, and heating oil bills for a property, or a usage history for the same time period. Additionally, the seller must provide Montgomery County Department of Environmental Protection approved information to help the buyer with energy conservation choices and options. If you’re selling your home, your listing agent can provide you with the approved Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors® forms to fulfill these obligations.

County residents finding themselves at odds with their Home Owners or Condo Association can ask for help from the Office of Common Ownership Communities. Housed within the OCP, the OCOC offers information and a dispute resolution program for home owners, boards, management companies, and managers. The OCOC pledges transparency, integrity, and a commitment to the highest ethical standards.

If you’re buying a new home in Montgomery County, you are provided with an extra layer of protection through Montgomery County Code Chapter 31C, which requires new home builders to be licensed by the Montgomery County OCP as well as provide a new home warranty that meets specific criteria.

If you own rental property or are a tenant within the County, you’ll find the Office of Landlord – Tenant Affairs (housed within the Department of Housing and Community Affairs) a resource of valuable information. Besides publishing a Landlord – Tenant Handbook, the commission provides information on licensing, security deposits, evictions, leases, and rent increases. Besides informing of general rights and responsibilities of landlords and tenants, it offers a free and quick avenue for tenants to seek amicable dispute resolution (http://montgomerycountymd.gov/DHCA/housing/landlordtenant).

Home owners and tenants who have issues with their cable TV provider can seek assistance from the Office of Cable and Broadband Services (montgomerycountymd.gov/cable). Housed within the Office of Technology Services, the “Cable Office” administers the County’s cable TV franchise agreements; the office investigates and resolves subscriber complaints.

Check with your real estate agent about local home owner and buyer protections. Many consumer protection agencies (such as those listed above) have websites where information is posted to educate consumers.