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May 31, 2012

Skepticism increases 1.3% on conflicting housing data

by Dan Krell © 2012
DanKrell.com

When the National Association of Realtors® announced last week that April’s existing home sales increased 3.4% to an annually adjusted rate of 4.62 million compared to a downwardly revised 4.47 million in March (http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2012/05/april-existing-home-sales-up-prices-rise-again), I have to admit I was a bit skeptical. The local market is not exactly humming along, so as I read in the above referenced NAR release that April’s existing home sales rose 10% over the figure from April 2011, I thought some perspective is needed.

Let me quote you some housing statistics. The number of Montgomery County single family homes that sold increased 5.1% in February, 14.7% in March, 33.9% in April and 27.9% in May (MRIS data reported by the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors®; gcaar.com). These numbers are not from 2012; but rather, these are the local stats from 2010 compared to closings from 2009. Yes, as you remember – 2010 was a spectacular year for local real estate!

Sarcasm aside, the number of Montgomery County single family home closings increased 5.8% during April 2012 (compared to 2011); and the number of Montgomery County condo closings also increased 8.1% during the same time. But, Montgomery County year-to-date settlements are still below the number of settlements that occurred during the same time in 2011 (-1.4% for single family homes; and -2.8% for condos). Although the 690 single family home settlements that occurred in April 2012 is higher than 652 that occurred in April 2011, the 2,034 single family home settlements that occurred year-to-date through April 2012 is lower than the 2,062 settlements that occurred the same period in 2011. Regardless, the number of settlements is far lower than what we have seen in past “normal” markets (for example, GCAAR reported that there were 849 settlements of Montgomery County single family homes in April 2001).

It must be noted that although the first half of 2010 seemed to be on a role, the number of 2010 Montgomery County single family home closings actually ended the year slightly lower than 2009. So, even though we have a month of some positive news, let’s be cautious about making assumptions.

Ok, I know you’re going to ask about NAR’s statements about rising home sales. Sure, NAR chief economist, Lawrence Yun, was reported to say that “the housing recovery was underway.” He was also quoted to say, “A return of normal home buying for occupancy is helping home sales across all price points, and now the recovery appears to be extending to home prices…”

However, the latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (May 29th; standardandpoors.com) states “that all three headline composites ended the first quarter of 2012 at new post-crisis lows.” Although there was a 1.6% decrease in home prices in the Washington DC metropolitan area in February compared to January, there was a 1% increase in March compared to February; however, prices have decreased 0.6% for the year.

Although media headlines shout that housing has turned a corner, it’s a little premature to assume that the housing market has normalized with only one month’s data. The housing market has turned so many corners in recent years that I think we’ve made several circles! Just as in 2010, let’s see the final tally. There’s still some data to collect; let’s see how the housing market fares through the remainder of the summer.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of May 28, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

May 16, 2012

Renting vs Buying 2012

by Dan Krell © 2012
DanKrell.com

Inventories of homes for sale are at a five year low. The last time home inventories were this low, homes were sometimes selling as soon as you could put a “for sale” sign in the yard. For some, the recent shrinking inventories are a welcome sign of market equilibrium; even analysts at Barclay’s site low housing inventory as one indication of a housing comeback.

For others, however, the shrinking inventory is a sign that supply is just lessening to demand. Many individuals who might have previously thought of buying home are, for now, putting off home ownership. Many people are delaying family formation and do not want to be “anchored” by a home in a tight employment market. As Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, discussed in a speech given in February to the National Association of Home Builders, economic uncertainty has impacted the willingness to commit to home ownership. “…housing may no longer be viewed as the secure investment it once was thought to be…” (“Housing Markets in Transition”; federalreserve.gov).

As the inventory of homes for sale homes shrinks, the number of rentals increases- along with rent! According to rental statistics compiled by the Greater Capital Association of Realtors® (gcaar.com), fourth quarter 2011 rental listing volume increased about 89% compared to the fourth quarter 2010. Additionally, fourth quarter 2011 average rent list prices for Montgomery County increased 11.4% compared to the fourth quarter 2010; and the average rent price for Montgomery County increased 5.29% compared to the fourth quarter 2010.

More evidence of a strong rental market comes from the National Association of Home Builders (nahb.org): the Multifamily Vacancy Index (MVI) fell in the fourth quarter of 2011 indicating fewer rental vacancies. Additionally, the Multifamily Production Index (MPI), which measures builder and developer sentiment about current conditions in the multifamily market, is at its highest since 2005; the MPI component measuring developer sentiment for market-rate rentals is at an all time high.

The recent shift in the perception of homeownership has resulted in a falling homeownership rate: recent seasonally adjusted homeownership rates have been slowly declining from the all time high of 69.2% reached in the first quarter of 2005. The most recent seasonally adjusted homeownership rate (Q3 2011) is 66.1%, which is similar to the homeownership rate of 66.2% reported by the 2000 Census.

But evidence of a housing market attempting equilibrium comes from a May 9th National Association of Realtors® news release suggesting that home prices are stabilizing. First quarter 2012 “Median sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes for Metropolitan Areas” compiled by the NAR indicate that although average national home sale prices decreased 0.4%, and average home sale prices for the Washington DC region increased 5.7% (realtor.org)

Reports of a recovering housing market may be supported by recent increases in home buyer activity. Market data reported by GCAAR indicates that “contracts” (also known as pending sales) increased 12.4% for the month of April (compared to April 2011); and increased 8.5% year to date 2012 (compared to the same period last year).

Even though home prices may be stabilizing, buying a home could still be cheaper than renting. According to Trulia’s Winter 2012 Rent vs. Buy Index (trulia.com), homeownership is less expensive (and may still be a better deal) than renting in 98 of 100 metro areas- including the Washington DC metro area.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of May 14, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

May 10, 2012

Real estate pent up demand or pent up optimism

by Dan Krell © 2012
DanKrell.com

The National Association of Realtors® latest news release of April 26th stated that March’s increased pending home sales figures is an indication that the housing market is recovering. The NAR reported that March’s Pending Home Sale Index (the PHSI is a “forward looking number indicating contracts signed”) increased from February’s PHSI and is much higher than the PHSI a year ago. Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, claimed; “The housing market has clearly turned the corner. Rising sales are bringing down inventory and creating much more balanced conditions around the county, which means home prices, will be rising in more areas as the year progresses…” (realtor.org).

Regardless of the newly sparked optimism for the housing market, a news release of one week prior (April 19th) indicated although March’s existing home sales were better than the previous year, the number of home sales declined from February’s totals. Dr. Yun cautioned that, “We were expecting a seasonal increase in home listings, but a lack of inventory has suddenly become an issue in several markets with not enough homes for sale in relation to buyer interest”…“Home sales could be held back because of supply factors and not by demand…”

My local market (Montgomery County MD, which includes Bethesda, MD, Chevy Chase MD, and Rockville MD) is part of the one of the stronger housing markets in the country, and pending sales are strong. The April 2012 Montgomery County Single Family Home Housing Report released by the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors (gcaar.com) indicated that the number of contracts increased 12.4% compared to the same time last year, as well as increasing 8.5% year-to-date compared to the same time last year.

However, when looking at closing sales, pending sales may not be converting. Although the number of settlements of single family homes in Montgomery County is reported to have increased 5.8% in April 2012 from April 2011, the number of settlements year-to-date has decreased 1.6% from the same time last year.

Additionally, housing inventory continues to pose a problem for the market. Montgomery County single family home new listings decreased 14.6% in April 2012 from April 2011; while total actives reported for year-to-date through April 2012 decreased 15.1% for the same time last year. A diminished housing inventory is not so much an issue of meeting an increased buyer demand, as Dr. Yun has stated; but rather the issue may be that the declining housing supply may be lowering to meet buyer demand.

However, if housing inventories were not meeting an increased buyer demand, then we might be experiencing something akin to what occurred 2005 through 2006 (when homes sold relatively quickly, the average time on market was less than 30 days, and home prices were increasing). But we’re not experiencing the activity of 2005-2006. Additionally, the average single family home sale price for Montgomery County as reported by GCAAR is $496,144 for the month of April 2012 (compared to $515,161 for the same time last year).

I remember (and reported) similar optimisms declared in recent years; for example, an October 2009 report indicated that the PHSI was proclaimed to be at the highest level since March 2007. Enthusiasm for a market turning point would surely be welcome; but the data is inconsistent. And in fact, maybe current reports of pent up home buyer demand may be indicative of something else- a projection of pent up optimism.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of May 7, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

April 25, 2012

Can housing market endure another recession

by Dan Krell ©2012
DanKrell.com

Some say that the world will end December 21st, 2012. However, rather than the world ending, some say that we will only see increased financial and social upheaval. Divination may be fine for some, but many economic and financial experts are resolve to figure out solutions to current economic issues.

So, as these financial and economic professionals argue how make the economy better, along comes Jim Rogers. (If you’ve never heard of Jim Rogers, he is described as an investor and economic commentator who is often featured in frequently featured in Time, The Washington Post, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, and other economic and financial publications; jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com.) Prophetic, forward thinking Jim Rogers drops a bombshell: economic slowdowns occur in the United States every 4 to 6 years, which has been happening since the country was founded – and 2013 will be 6 years from the technical beginning of the most recent recession that began in 2007.

Don’t get too excited yet, Rogers has been talking about recession/economic slowdown for several years. And although he hasn’t provided any specific dates, his most recent comments seem to be saying that we’re overdue.

But some would argue that the housing industry continues to struggle and has not yet emerged from the most recent recession. Even when recent initial annual reports attempt to instill optimism, we have been disappointed by lackluster midyear sales numbers. This year will be no different.

Consider that the National Association of Realtors® (realtor.org) recently announced that existing home sales in March 2012 declined 2.6% from February. However, even though March sales declined from the previous month, the report makes a point to say that home sales increased 5.2% compared to the same time last year.

However, local housing stats may be more telling. The Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors® (gcaar.com) reports Montgomery County single family home sales for March 2012 decreased 4% compared to the same time last year; and decreased 3.9% year to date 2012 compared to the same time last year. And although pending sales (homes under contract) have increased 5.2% year to date 2012 compared to the same time last year; the inventory of homes for sale has decreased 12.6% year to date 2012 compared to the same time last year – not leaving much choice for home buyers (data compiled from Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc.).

Additionally, the most recent S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (reported April 24th, 2012) indicated that February home prices “improved”- to an annual decline of 3.6% for the 10 City Composite; home prices in the Washington DC region remained relatively the same (standardandpoors.com). The Home Price Index, reported by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (fhfa.gov), indicated that home prices for the last quarter of 2011 decreased 1.1%.

Since decreased consumer sentiment and spending are associated with a recession; we could possibly see a temporary decrease in home sales, not unlike the post-financial-crisis sales of 2008/2009, if we experience a recession next year. As a result, home prices could also suffer.

However, as the housing market lumbers along, it becomes increasingly clear that the practical aspects of home sale figures have recently become less a function of the overall economy; rather, housing has become a function of a shifting perception of home ownership.

More news and articles on “the Blog”
This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of April 23, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

April 18, 2012September 22, 2018

Attractive real estate agents: the research and the hype

It is often said that beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but a recent research article has the blogosphere a buzz questioning how attractive real estate agents can help you sell your home. The article was even posted on a National Association of Realtors® blog (realtor.org); posing the question, “do attractive real estate agents sell homes for more money?”

Do attractive real estate agents help sell your home faster?

The research conducted by Salter, Mixon & King, and published in the journal Applied Financial Economics, was titled “Broker beauty and boon: a study of physical attractiveness and its effect on real estate brokers’ income and productivity” (2012. vol. 22(10): p.p. 811-825). The research was not just an attempt at pop psychology, but rather it was one of the more recent attempts to establish how physical attractiveness affects income. The authors suggest, as stated in the abstract, that, “Results suggest that beauty augments more attractive agents’ wages and that more attractive agents use beauty to supplement classic production-related characteristics, such as effort, intelligence, and organizational skills.”

As the article makes its rounds on the internet, the results have most likely become misinterpreted and distorted. Although headlines might suggest that attractive agents sell homes at higher prices than others, however, the results could be interpreted that attractive agents may actually charge you more for their services rather than selling your home at a higher price (after all, the research is how beauty affects earnings). Additionally, as some have suggested that the results indicate less attractive agents sell homes quicker, beauty does not guarantee a quick sale (or satisfaction, as I describe below).

Although beauty is in the eye of the beholder, Hamermesh & Biddle state that there is empirical evidence that “beholders view beauty similarly” (1994. Beauty and the labor market. The American Economic Review, 84(5), 1174-1174.). They also acknowledge that beauty may “alter” other characteristics – and these variables are difficult to measure. Some variables that may be part of the “beauty quotient” might include facial structure, height and weight, while other variables may also include a person’s self esteem and confidence. Although Hamermesh & Biddle make it clear that there is a “penalty” in earnings for unattractiveness, they also acknowledge there may be “unobserved” characteristics associated with attractiveness that could account for increased earnings (they suggest a possible example is that increased earnings in adulthood with appearing physically attractive may be a result of a privileged background).

Do attractive real estate agents help sell for more money?

The phenomenon of increased earnings for the beautiful is not a new concept, but Salter, Mixon & King have indicated it is factual for real estate agents. But the attractiveness quotient is not clear cut as other factors (besides physical characteristics) are brought to the table, such as networking and communication skills, previous experiences, and professional image.

But wait- there’s more to the story! There is another body of research on contrast effects and physical attractiveness that suggests that when people are surrounded by beautiful people, happiness decreases (see: Michael Levine (2001). Why I hate Beauty. Psychology Today. 34,4). So, this could be interpreted to indicate that just because you hire an attractive real estate agent (quite possibly for a higher commission) – your satisfaction is not guaranteed.

Do attractive real estate agents make more commission?

The bottom line: stick with the basics when hiring a real estate agent; which include (among other things) asking trusted sources (such as friends and relatives) for a referral , and ask agent about their license and qualifications as well as recent references.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2012/04/18/beauty-attractiveness-and-real-estate-agents-the-research-and-the-hype/

By Dan Krell