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December 20, 2011October 20, 2020

Understanding the revision of home sale statistics

by Dan Krell
© 2011
DanKrell.com

As the housing market slid, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) was often criticized for producing home sale data that seemed unrealistic. As criticism seemed to peek, NAR announced earlier this year that they were seeking to “re-benchmark” data for counting the number of homes that sold.

According to a December 13th Reuters report (Existing home sales to be revised down from 2007: NAR), the NAR is “revising down” home sales statistics because of double counting, “indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought.” The news sparked cries of “fraud!’ and “told you so’s” across the blogosphere; while some used the news as a marketing opportunity to tout their data as unwavering.

However, according to the NAR’s press release, “Q&A on Re-Benchmarking of Home Sales” (economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org), the main reason for the re-benchmarking is for data drift that occurred during the housing downturn; re-benchmarking is a common aspect of estimating economic data (much like the government’s GDP and employment figure revisions). The re-benchmarking is only for existing home sales and not home prices.

According to Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, data drift is to blame for the over estimates. The monthly existing home sales data that is reported by NAR is compiled from MLS boards across the country. Data drift was revealed when comparisons were made with other available home sales data.

Data drift is a term that describes the change of non-constant variables used in statistical measurements. The data drift in NAR’s existing home sale data was described as being caused by several factors: an increasing reliance on Realtors®, double listings, and inconsistencies across MLS boards.

Although MLS data typically tracks Realtor® home sales data, there are homes that are also sold by home builders and for-sale-by owners (fsbo) which are not typically reflected in the MLS. Dr. Yun believes that some of the data drift is due to the increasing reliance on Realtors® as the market deteriorated to sell homes they typically did not sell in the past (by fsbo’s and builders).

Additionally, it was realized that MLS home sale data was duplicated in some instances. In some regions, it is not unusual for Realtors® to belong to more than one MLS board. In some of those instances, Realtors® often input the data in two or more MLS’s; thus resulting in a duplicate sales.

As technology and markets advance, local and regional MLS boards found themselves changing to increase the quality of the MLS data, as well as expanding to provide service in outlying areas. Although many MLS boards attempt to adhere to consistent data standards and practices, compiled home sale data is not always consistent across all the MLS boards. Additionally, as MLS coverage grew, it could have been logically assumed that the quantity of home sales reported for the growing MLS boards would increase because of the wider coverage.

Additionally, Dr. Yun stated that the census data used to benchmark the MLS data has also changed; the U.S. Census changed the data it collected by changing survey forms. In re-benchmarking, the NAR expects a revision of existing home sales to account for the increase of MLS entries of new homes as well as homes that sold multiple times within a 12-month period (flips). The re-benchmarking should also account for fsbo variances that were not previously adjusted.

The revisions are expected this week.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of December 19, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

December 15, 2011November 11, 2012

Post-crisis real estate: What’s in store for the housing market?

by Dan Krell
© 2011
DanKrell.com

It is often said that history repeats itself. If we want a glimpse of our future, we should look to the past; if we want to see how a post-crisis housing market looks like, we should look to see how a previous housing crisis ended.

According to the Census Bureau (census.gov), the last time homeownership rates declined was 1980-1990. Recent seasonally adjusted homeownership rates have been declining slowly from the all time high of 69.2% reached in the first quarter of 2005. The current seasonally adjusted homeownership rate (for the third quarter of 2011) is 66.1%, which is similar to the homeownership rate of 66.2% reported by the 2000 Census.

Although the country is dealing with some of the same economic issues that was problematic during the early 1980’s; the current real estate market is more akin to like the post S&L crisis of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, when the market was flooded with foreclosures and a coinciding recession impeded an already difficult housing market. Some may remember that during that time home prices decreased and, not unlike recent events, many home owners walked away from their homes (some lenders were sent the keys of recently purchased homes).

Then like today, resulting legislation changed the lending landscape in an effort to ensure such systemic abuse and failure would not happen again. The Census reported that the homeownership rate in 1990 was 64.2%, just shy of the 64.4% homeownership rate reported in 1980.

Additionally, mortgage interest rates were “normalized” post the S&L crisis, making homeownership more affordable than the previous decade. Then, like today, low mortgage rates are touted to make owning a home more attractive than renting.

Also, like that time, the real estate business was changing. Besides changing business models (buyer agency was becoming recognized across the country), large real estate brokers downsized and/or absorbed brokers wanting to get out of the business. Today’s real estate business models have changed to accommodate technology and a vast array of information; additionally, national and regional brokers may begin to see their market share change with the marketplace.

Demographics are always changing. Current demographics indicate a shrinking pool of willing home buyers and sellers. As home prices have dropped over the last several years, many baby boomers who planned to downsize cannot afford to sell their home; additionally, “move-up” home buyers have also decided to make do with their current home longer than they planned as they find that their home’s equity has diminished. Many renters are choosing to continue renting as homeownership is viewed as an anchor; they prefer to be more mobile and not tied down by homeownership until they become more established in their careers.

Before home prices can stabilize, many expect average home prices to drop another 20%. Home prices have (more or less) historically returned to an established “norm” after a housing boom. Home prices are about 26% higher than the “norm” adjusted price, which was established in 1890 as reported by Robert Shiller (Irrational Exuberance; Broadway Books 2nd edition, 2005).

As we move forward, economic and industry related barriers continue to prevent a recovery in the real estate sector. It may be several years before these issues may be managed; however once addressed, confidence in homeownership may begin to increase once again instilling pride and sense of community.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of December 12, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

December 8, 2011June 3, 2020

It’s time to buy a new home

The time may be right for you to buy a new home this spring. Low interest rates and reduced prices, combined with builder incentives may make a new home a viable option that many home buyers have forgotten about.

Home builders that survived the culling of the market decline have sought out ways to make homes more affordable. Going with the new trend, some home builders are offering more efficient floor plans, as well as more cost efficient building processes.

Modular homes seem to be more prevalent these days as custom home builders seek to reduce costs to the buyers as well as increasing floor plan flexibility and construction quality. The reason why many home builders are turning to modular designs may be that the modules are built in a controlled environment, which increases quality while reducing weather related delays and damage. In a typical plant, manufactured and modular housing fabrication quality specialists constantly monitor fabrication to ensure the final product meets or exceeds all codes, which is unlike on-site construction where inspections can be random and inconsistent.

One attraction to buying a new home is that everything is new! Along with the new, one expects warranties. Make sure you discuss the warranties that are provided with your purchase with your builder and Realtor®. It is typical for new appliances, fixtures and flooring to have limited manufactures warranties, so make sure you receive all paperwork related to those items.

Additionally, most builders offer a warranty as well; the warranty is most likely guaranteed by a third party. According to a homebuyer’s booklet offered by the Maryland Attorney General’s Office Consumer Protection Division, a home builder warranty in Maryland must include at a minimum: “any defects in materials or workmanship for one year; any defects in the electrical, plumbing, heating, cooling and ventilating systems for two years (not to exceed the period of the manufacturer’s warranty); and defects to any load-bearing structural elements for five years.” The booklet recommends that you contact the third party guaranteeing the warranty, to check if the builder is in good standing.

Although a home may be new, it does not guarantee that it is perfect when delivered to you. It is common to conduct a “final walkthrough” with a builder representative to check the systems and to identify any defects that may need repair or correction. Builders will ask for a “punch list” of items that need correction.

Former president of the American Society of Home Inspectors, Frank Lesh, was on record as saying that “Even new homes have defects that only a professional can detect…” He stated that a home inspector can help ensure that a new home’s major systems (roof, foundation, electrical, plumbing) “are functioning properly and safely before moving in”… “Because many items can’t be inspected after a house has been built, homeowners should consider having a series of phased inspections conducted at key milestone markers. ASHI encourages homebuyers to consider an inspection at the following times: prior to foundation pour; prior to insulation and drywall; prior to the final walkthrough.” (ashi.org)

If you’re considering buying a new home, consider visiting new home resources offered by the National Association of Home Builders (nahb.org) and the American Society of Home Inspectors (ashi.org), as well as the homebuyer’s booklet offered by the Maryland Attorney General’s Office Consumer Protection Division (http://www.marylandattorneygeneral.gov)

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2011

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

November 30, 2011November 11, 2012

Will inflation help the housing market: how real estate is affected

by Dan Krell
© 2011
DanKrell.com

Many people believe that as inflation increases, home values decrease. The argument put forth is that as purchasing power decreases, so do the value of your assets. However, some economists say that it is flawed thinking to assume that housing, like other goods, decline in value as inflation increases.

Collin Barr reported that Yale economist Robert Shiller (coauthor of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index) has spent years collecting data that indicates “that house prices over time tend to rise more or less in step with inflation” (fortune.com: Why house prices will keep falling; March 29, 2011). That’s all well and good, except that home prices far exceeded the rate of inflation during the recent “bubble years;” and is reported as still having a 25% gap from baseline. So, unless we see an increasing rate of inflation, some believe that home prices drop another 20%.

Brian Summerfield, Online Editor of REALTOR® Magazine, describes (in an April 5th Realtor.org blog post) a scenario of how inflation can lift the current housing market. By highlighting affordability, he explains the cost of housing is currently cheaper to own a home (compared to renting). Additionally, as inflation creeps up and eats more of the family budget by decreasing buying power, the a person’s housing budget will be pressured by rising rents and buying a home will be increasingly more attractive.

Of course, Mr. Summerfield’s scenario is hinged on several “caveats”: interest rates will have to remain relatively low (he says no higher than 7%); implementation of “accessible” 30 year fixed mortgage programs; housing supply will have to remain low; and no additional economic crises.

In several Realtor.org blog posts, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors®, discussed inflation and housing. In an April 18th post he explained that “Unexpected inflation” does erode savings, however actually benefits borrowers. Additionally, in a September 15th post reporting that housing starts are the lowest since World War II, Yun explains that some investors are returning to undervalued real estate as a hedge against inflation. Since new housing is not on track with population growth, some believe there will be a housing shortage that will cause increased demand in coming years.

The reality is that although there is a relationship between home prices and inflation, it does not signify causality. In other words, although one may have an effect on the other, housing and inflation are independent. Even in Brian Summerfield’s scenario, he is cautious to provide conditions to bring his vision to reality. And no one has talked about the affects of stagflation.

When talking about a recovery, the typical homeowner should remain cautious- especially in espousing a view that a home is an investment vehicle. Even though our consumer oriented society has encouraged people to pay for their lifestyles with their home’s equity, it’s now widely decried as irresponsible.

In light of the current economic conditions, many potential home buyers are becoming more pragmatic as well. Even though the basic benefits of homeownership include affordability, community, etc, many potential home buyers view owning a home as anchor that will keep them tied to a specific area. And in a time when jobs are scarce, many people want the freedom of mobility in case they have a career opportunity elsewhere.

Will inflation help the real estate market? We will only know in hindsight.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of November 28, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

November 24, 2011July 25, 2019

Take care of your vacant home

According to a 2009 USA Today report, 1 out of 9 homes are vacant. Although, more so in recent times, “foreclosure” may come to mind when you hear “vacant home;” however, there are other reasons why a home may be vacant, which may include: the home owner bought their new home prior to selling; seasonal travelers head to warmer climates during the winter; job relocation; divorce; or an unsettled estate. Regardless of the reason for leaving your home vacant, making preparations prior to leaving may make your return more welcoming.

Even if your home is listed with a Realtor®, don’t assume that the home will be looked after; take care of your asset and ensure that your vacant home is cared for. Consider having a trusted person in charge of checking the vacant home regularly. Besides collecting un-forwarded mail, this person can take care of issues that may arise while you’re away.

As we are headed into winter, consider winterizing the home. “Winterizing” is jargon that describes the draining of water and pressure from the plumbing system. Experts recommend winterizing your home if you plan leaving your home vacant during the winter months. Winterizing your home may reduce the risk of bursting pipes as well as possibly reducing damage to plumbing fixtures. When winterizing and de-winterizing your home, consider hiring a licensed plumber because you may encounter unexpected high pressure, and the winterizing process may cause increased stress on the plumbing system.

Check the drainage around your home to ensure that water is removed away from the home as intended. Test the sump pump (if you have one) to ensure it is in working order. Blockages from leaves and other debris can build up on the roof and gutters as well as around basement stairwell drains (which are notorious for clogging and may cause a flooded basement). Clogged gutters and drains may cause roof and basement leaks even when a home is lived in; certainly if unattended to, can wreak havoc on your vacant home.

Cold weather is also a time when pests are seeking a warm shelter; you don’t want to return to the surprise of a home that has been infested with mice, raccoons, or other pests. A licensed pest control expert may be able to assist you in preventing an infestation by searching for and sealing pest related access points.

Theft and vandalism is often a primary concern for vacant home owners. Besides being the target of thieves, vacant homes often become the focus of vandals. Besides ensuring that valuables are safe, make certain that all doors and windows are secure.

Finally, consult with your insurance agent about your home owners’ policy. Don’t assume that you’re covered just because you have insurance. Besides describing what the insurance company deems as “vacant,” many home owners’ policies have coverage limitations when the home is considered vacant. Your insurance agent can assist you in determining if you need additional coverage while you’re away from your home.

Taking care of a vacant home is not only for lenders taking possession of foreclosed homes. Whatever your reason for leaving your home behind this winter, think ahead and take care of your asset. Consider taking preventative measures to keep your home safe and intact as well as arranging for someone to take charge of the home while you’re away.

by Dan Krell
© 2010

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.