Real Estate News and Commentary

May 13, 2016November 23, 2021

Real estate agent robots

Many erroneously describe Gordon Moore’s prediction as the doubling of computing power every two years. “Moore’s Law” is more accurately described as the doubling of transistors on a chip every two years. The point is that computer power is on steep path of improvements; and the prediction has been accurate since Moore’s 1965 paper “Cramming more components onto integrated circuits” (Electronics; April 19, 1965). What does Moore’s Law have to do with real estate? Everything. Many industries have benefited as computer processing power increased – including real estate. Will we see real estate agent robots in the future?

It is often said that a smart phone has thousands more computing power than the Apollo guidance computer. Consider how far computing power has increased over the last fifty years; common computer processors today exceed 1 billion transistors per chip with average clock speeds over 2.5 GHz (the Mac Plus I had in graduate school had an 8MHz processor with only 68,000 transistors!). The ever growing processor power has allowed major developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotic applications we are witnessing today. And the promise of quantum computing is expected to make our current computers seem like abacuses.

A cutting edge 2013 paper by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, of the University of Oxford, discussed the effects of advancements computerization and robotics on employment and the labor market (The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Oxford Martin School – University of Oxford; September 2013). The authors concluded that about 47% of the US workforce is at risk of being “automated soon” (which is in the next ten to twenty years). Workers expected to be affected include, “…transportation and logistics occupations, together with the bulk of office and administrative support workers, and labour in production occupations…” The service industry, including real estate, was singled out as being affected by AI and robotics.

Included among the top occupations most at risk included: real estate broker, real estate agent, property manager, and real estate appraiser. The increasing reliance on automated property valuations by lenders, real estate agents, and consumers is a testament to the advancement of AI in the industry. Back in April, Inman (a leading real estate information publisher) devised an experiment to see if a computer algorithm would best a real estate broker in choosing homes for potential home buyer. The results announced May 10^th revealed that the computer program did a better job than the real estate agent (Broker vs. bot: And the winner is…; inman.com; May 10, 2016). Of course, there were limitations to Inman’s test; but still a notable result nonetheless demonstrating how AI is affecting the real estate industry. Robotics is making significant advances too.

Recent developments have made self-driving cars real, along with Honda’s Asimo; and even artificial companions. You can now purchase your own service robot, if you can afford it. Just like AI, robots may also take over real estate agent tasks in the near future. Imagine walking into an open house and being greeting by a friendly and helpful robot! We often talk of how quickly the internet has developed and its impact on the real estate industry. And it’s partly due to rapidly increasing computer processing power and Moore’s Law. Imagine how AI and robotics will change home buying and selling in ten or twenty years. And once quantum computing becomes commonplace, you may even experience a real virtual tour via a holodeck.

Original at https://dankrell.com/blog/2016/05/13/real-estate-agent-robots/

Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

May 6, 2016September 10, 2018

Home pricing strategy and housing market shift

home pricing strategy The apparent luxury home market collapse is most likely due to an increased inventory of luxury homes, and a lack of foreign investors (who were active in the market several years ago). The impact of reduced prices is noticeable in home price indices as well, as there seems to be a consensus that there is a hint of a slowdown of price appreciation.

Corelogic’s May Home Price Insights (corelogic.com) indicated that nationwide home prices during March increased 6.7% year over year; and projects 5.7% appreciation for next March. Additionally, the report highlights twelve states that have reached new home price highs. Month over month average home prices nationwide increased 2.1%; however next month’s projection is for a gain of only 0.7%.

April’s S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (spindices.com) indicted that February home prices increased at an annual rate of 5.3%, which is roughly the same as the previous month’s index. The hot real estate markets of Portland, Seattle, and Denver realized the highest year over year gains, growing at 11.9%, 11% and 9.7% respectively. However, the national 0.2% month over month gain was not as encouraging.

David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, provided commentary about the April S&P/Case-Shiller report, saying “…Home prices continue to rise twice as fast as inflation, but the pace is easing off in the most recent numbers…While financing is not an issue for home buyers, rising prices are a concern in many parts of the country. The visible supply of homes on the market is low at 4.8 months in the last report. Homeowners looking to sell their house and trade up to a larger house or a more desirable location are concerned with finding that new house. Additionally, the pace of new single family home construction and sales has not completely recovered from the recession.”

Although the recent home price indices have not yet established negative trends, they are telling of a housing market under pressure. Local home sellers should take note that the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index for the Washington DC metro area indicates a month over month -0.2% (negative two tenths of a percent) change in the average home price. The Corelogic HPI Market Condition Indicator for the Washington DC-MD-VA-WV metro area is “Overvalued.”

If you are planning a home sale during the latter half of this year, you should be extra aware of the local market trends; paying attention to competition and general inventory. Home pricing strategies that were common last year may not work to your advantage. Over pricing your home could result in driving home buyers to your competition, rather than netting a higher sales price.

Original post at https://dankrell.com/blog/2016/05/06/new-home-sale-strategy-needed-as-home-prices-start-to-shift/

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April 29, 2016September 23, 2019

When transfer tax becomes controversial

The legislative process encourages discourse for proposed legislation. The result is a bill that is passed or defeated. Regardless, proposed housing market and real estate legislation is not typically exciting; and in fact the minutia of the bill can be downright boring and/or confusing. However, there are occasions when proposed legislation has the potential to affect home owners and buyers such that it can create a brouhaha.

First, let’s review a few bills passed by the Maryland General Assembly: The first has to do with agency. Currently, “licensees” are required to provide the Maryland Real Estate Commission’s Understanding Whom Real Estate Agents Represent at the time of first face to face meeting and is a notice to the consumer. The disclosure explains seller’s agents, agents who represent the buyer, and dual agents. For many home buyers, the first face to face meeting of an agent is at an open house, and are supposed to be given the disclosure by the agent sitting at the open house regardless if the buyer has an agent or not. The new law is to simplify the disclosure, eliminating redundant notices and allowing agents at open houses to post who they represent instead of the asking every visitor to sign the disclosure.

Another change is how agents recommend service providers. The current requirement is for agents to check the licensing status of all recommended service providers, ensuring that the provider is currently licensed in Maryland. The new law will only require agents to annually check home improvement licenses of recommended contractors.

The General Assembly also passed legislation that will require home sellers throughout the state to disclose deferred water and sewer charges. Additionally, legislation was passed that adds requirements to the state brokerage licensing exemption for attorneys.

Still with me? Good. Local residents should be aware of the Montgomery County Council’s attempt to fast track a bill to increase the county’s recordation tax on real estate transactions. On April 14^th, Expedited Bill 15-16, Recordation Tax – Rates – Allocations – Amendments was introduced by Council President Nancy Floreen. Recordation tax is collected when a home is sold, and when a home owner refinances a mortgage. If passed, it will become effective July 1^st 2016 (which is about 2 months from now!).

The Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors® issued an April 18^th press release opposing the bill, stating that it unfairly targets home buyers and home owners by increasing a tax that is already among the highest in the state.

In an April 12^th memorandum to Councilmembers (page 7 of pdf) Councilmember Floreen stated: “While nobody likes the idea of increasing taxes of any kind, our needs are great, and this tax is less likely to affect those Montgomery County residents who are struggling most. On the up side, it will generate millions of dollars to support our desperate need for new schools and educational facility improvements. What’s more, a portion of the recordation tax is earmarked for affordable housing.”

Although aspirations for certain projects may be well intentioned, Councilmember Floreen should consider that further burdening home buyers in an already high cost area for real estate could impact homeownership and make “affordable housing” less affordable. Furthermore, the average Montgomery County home owner refinancing their mortgage may not be struggling, but they are trying to get by the best they can in a high cost of living area.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2016

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April 21, 2016November 23, 2021

Coping with today’s market

It’s that time of year again; the real estate market is getting hot along with the temperature. And that’s about the only thing most are able to predict about this year’s real estate market. Since the Great Recession, early forecasts about home buying and selling trends have typically missed the mark; the trends have varied, sometimes significantly, from year to year. Notwithstanding a very active season, many will be in for a surprise; some will be pleased about their home sale, while others not so much. And if you are selling a home, I’ve provided some tips to help you cope with today’s market:

Home buyers in today’s market

The most important point to remember this year: many home buyers are looking to buy a home, but not necessarily yours. The notion that your home appeals to all home buyers is false. If your home isn’t selling as fast as you thought it would, consider stepping back for a moment to re-evaluate your home and marketing plan.

Most home buyers are looking for a “turn-key” home and won’t settle for just anything on the market. Additionally, most are not willing to spend time and money updating a home they just purchased. Know your home before marketing it and consider making repairs if your home has considerable deferred maintenance.

Prepare your home for today’s market

The next item to remember this year, is that no matter how well your home shows: be prepared for a less than complimentary home inspection. Because there are a number of systems and many components to your home; chances are that there are items that need attention, repairing, and/or replacement – which the home inspector will cheerfully point out. Home inspectors will visually inspect your home, probing structural components when necessary; a detailed report indicates their observations. Most home inspectors are not experts in all aspects of home construction; and commonly recommend other professionals to examine items more closely.

As a home seller, you should understand that buyers in today’s market are under pressure about the investment they are undertaking; and are willing to walk away based on the home inspection findings. Sometimes, it’s not what – but how it’s said that will rattle buyers. Regardless, an uncomplimentary report does not have to blow up the deal. Be prepared for extra rounds of negotiating after the home inspection. Every transaction is different, and your agent should provide guidance on what’s reasonable and appropriate.

A final thought: don’t get greedy, but don’t leave money on the table either. Although inventory remains an issue in a number of areas, don’t feel compelled to over price your home based on the lack of homes for sale. However, don’t be complacent with the “average” home sale price of the neighborhood either. When comparing recent neighborhood sales, you should make pricing adjustments (plus and minus) depending on differences in your home’s age, amenities, size and other factors.

A word of caution: There is a growing trend in the reliance on automated valuations by real estate agents. AVM (automated valuation models) are helpful, but not always accurate. These reports are based on public information about your home and may not include correct information. If your agent recommends a sale price based an automated valuation, you should review the report attentively. If the report confidence level is low to medium, be prepared to carefully review the report and comparables, making adjustments as needed.

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2016/04/21/home-sale-tips-on-coping-with-todays-market/

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April 14, 2016November 23, 2021

Subtext in buying or selling a home

Profile of home buyers and sellers from nar.realtor

It’s all in the subtext. “Buyers are liars” is a saying that many real estate agents seem to verbalize when things don’t work out with a home buyer. It’s an insulting false aphorism that is proclaimed as an attempt to shift all responsibility by saying that the buyer was deceptive and did not cooperate. And when things fall apart with home sellers, the same agents won’t take responsibility and start hurling insults such as wacko, ignorant, or greedy. Of course, if the relationship becomes contentious, then you can imagine that the name calling becomes increasingly harsh.

And it goes both ways, of course. Real estate agents, as a profession, have a bad rap; and conditioned consumers bring those expectations into their relationships with their agents. Many buyers and sellers have a low opinion of real estate agents while often having high expectations for the outcome of their experience.

You may begin to see that, unless the settlement is flawless, these mindset combinations don’t bode well for the agent-consumer relationship. The home sale transaction is full of pitfalls. And if there is an underlying distrust between you and your agent, then the outcome can become an ordeal for you both.

Writing for RealtorMag, Jason Forrest laid out why such buyer (and seller) repudiation by agents is wrong (Agents: Stop Saying Buyers Are Liars: realtormag.realtor.org; September 2015). He pointed out that agents often blame the buyer (or seller) when the relationship and transaction is unsuccessful. But in reality, Forrest stated, the agent is the one who fails by not taking the time to understand and coach their client.

Research of real estate outcomes suggest that your experience during a real estate transaction may depend on both the agent’s and your ability to communicate. Clear communication between you and your agent should leave no doubt about your intentions, as well as your agent’s ability to convey and interpret motivations from your transaction counterpart.

The evolution of the real estate industry has not really improved the quality of communication between agent and consumer. Agents focusing on high volume sales along with the public’s reliance of the internet for home information reduce face-to-face interactions; which may allow for the creation of false expectations while decreasing overall consumer satisfaction.

In his book Re-examining The Art of Sales: Broadway Style (AuthorHouse, 2006), real estate broker Nilton De Macedo asserted that the key to communication and understanding lies in the subtext of the dialogue. Having stated that subtext is “what you really mean under what you say,” he provided an example: saying “I’m going to bed” may sometimes imply “I don’t want to talk to you now.”

De Macedo explains that as a sales professional, it is essential to discover the subtext of the conversation. The real estate agent should not only attempt to decipher the client’s subtext to reveal their “unspoken intentions” – but they should also work to discover the subtext of their own communication. He proclaims that this approach deeply influences how we relate to each other and will greatly improve communication.

Although De Macedo places the responsibility of communication square on the shoulders of the real estate agent, it really goes both ways. Your agent may also be communicating something else through subtext, implied by what or how it is said. You can improve your outcome by becoming aware of the subtext in the communication between you and your agent.

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