Is housing market in trouble?

home sales stats
Home sales stats from nar.realtor

Two seemingly mundane and unrelated news items were reported over the last couple of days without much attention, but could be a warning that housing activity is slowing.  First are reports of disappointing home sales during February, while the other is about mortgage principal write downs.

The National Association of Realtors® (nar.realtor) reported in a March 21st statement that February home sales plunged 7.1% from January’s sales; however, February sales were still 2.2% higher than the same time last year.  The disappointing sales were recorded in all four national regions; and were likely due to a combination of extremely low inventory and increasing home prices.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun stated in the release that although the northeast blizzard may have had some impact, vapid sales were more likely due to the lack of supply and affordability.  He stated, “…Finding the right property at an affordable price is burdening many potential buyers.”  Yun pointed out that although there are gains in job growth, NAR’s latest quarterly Home Survey indicated that fewer respondents believed the economy was improving, while a lower number of renters stated it’s a good time to buy a home.  Remaining optimistic, Yun qualified February’s data saying home buyer demand is still high, however, “…home prices and rents outpacing wages and anxiety about the health of the economy are holding back a segment of would-be buyers.”

NAR also reported that February’s median existing home price for all housing types was up 4.4% year-over-year; while exiting inventory is 1.1% lower compared to the same time last year, which leaves unsold inventory at a 4.4 month supply.

However, a housing slowdown may not be noticeable in my area.  Statistics reported by the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors® (gcaar.com) indicated that settlements during February for Montgomery County single family homes are actually up 19.3% and homes under contract increased 12.4% compared to the same time last year.  However, February’s new inventory for Montgomery County single family homes decreased 3.4% year-over-year.

Although continued increases in home prices is good news for homeowners; it is easy to see that affordability is an impediment to home ownership for many would be home buyers.  Additionally, possibly keeping home sales inventory down are the number of homeowners who continue to feel that they cannot sell because they still owe more than the value of the home.  Consider that Realtytrac (realtytrac.com) reported that there were 6.4 million properties that were seriously underwater at the end of 2015; which represents about 11.5% of all homes with a mortgage.

In an effort to offer relief to underwater homeowners, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (conservator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) approved a plan to reduce mortgage balances on a “large scale.”  Joe Light reported for the Wall Street Journal (Fannie, Freddie to Cut Mortgage Balances for Thousands of Homeowners; wsj.com; March 21, 2016) that as many as 50,000 underwater homeowners could see their mortgage principal reduced by Fannie and Freddie.

Although the number of assisted homeowners seems small in comparison to the number of underwater properties reported by Realtytrac, and is not expected to impact the housing market; it is a milestone nonetheless.  Mortgage principal reductions has been controversial, and has been bandied about by industry experts and regulators since the foreclosure crisis began in 2007.  Light reported that the previous FHFA director, Edward DeMarco, was reluctant to support such a program because of the cost to taxpayers.  However, current FHFA director, Melvin Watt, has taken a “measured approach” to the plan.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2016

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

The roof overhead

How to know your roof needs to be replaced (http://phoenixroofingteam.com)

People often ask why I frequently talk about home maintenance, and specifically the importance of maintaining the roof. The reason is simple; many issues can develop with an improperly maintained or neglected roof. Besides allowing water to penetrate directly into the inside of your home from a leaky roof, water can also penetrate a basement when the roof and gutters are not properly directing water away from the foundation.

Besides leaving unsightly stains, water entering the home from a leaking roof can seep through walls and ceilings deteriorating drywall and even possibly weakening floor trusses/beams. Water from improperly moved water can create standing water around the home, and enter into the basement. Additionally, any water penetration into the home has the potential to promote mold growth; which not only can affect your health but your home’s structure as well.

It’s obvious that a leaking roof is a problem; and now you know how an unchecked leak can damage your home over time. The good news is that proper maintenance can prevent major leaks and resulting damage. Visually checking the roof (from the ground) regularly can make you aware of general condition of the shingles, flashing, gutters and downspouts. Curling, lifting, broken or missing shingles as well as missing or broken flashing are potential water entryways into your home; and it may be an indication that you should call a licensed roofer to further inspect and repair the roof.

Debris on the roof can not only damage the roofing material, it can also clog or damage the gutters and downspouts. The purpose for gutters and downspouts is to carry water away from the home so as to prevent soil erosion around the home’s basement and foundation; which is a common cause of outside water penetration into the basement. Clogged or damaged gutters and downspouts should also be repaired in a timely manner. Experts recommend to clean and inspect the gutters and downspouts twice a year to ensure proper function.

The two most common roof types are the flat roof and the pitched roof. Flat roofs are typically covered by a membrane, and are thought to be more vulnerable to weather than pitched roofs because of the limitation of gravity’s water draining action. Pitched roofs can be covered in a number of materials. Although shingled roofs are very common, metal roofs are becoming more popular because of its durability. Shingles can be made of many different materials for aesthetic and architectural needs (including solar panel shingles); but in our region the asphalt shingle is most common, and generally has a life expectancy of twenty to fifty years (depending on the quality).

If it’s time to replace the roof, have several roofing contractors provide you with estimates detailing the materials used and estimated labor. A cheaper estimate may not only be the difference in the quality of shingles; but also may not remove the old shingles, leaving them intact under the new roof. Make sure your estimate includes contractor clean up, so you’re not left with piles of old roofing material in your yard.

Always hire a Maryland Home Improvement Commission (MHIC) licensed contractor. The MHIC maintains a Guaranty Fund that compensates homeowners for actual monetary losses due to poor workmanship or failure to perform a home improvement contract; however, The Fund only applies to work done by licensed contractors. The contractor’s license can be checked on the MHIC website (dllr.state.md.us/license/mhic).

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Copyright © Dan Krell

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Housing and presidential election

from trulia.com

Another presidential election, and there will most likely be very little discussion and debate about housing policy. During the 2012 presidential election, housing seemed to take a back seat as the real estate market was still emerging from a foreclosure crisis and recession just four years earlier. Fast forward to today and homeownership is hovering near a 30-year low.  Homeownership is out of reach to many due to tightened mortgage qualifying and increasing home prices; while Americans’ incomes are being squeezed by rising rents.

Enter Ron Terwilliger. A successful real estate developer and philanthropist, Terwilliger launched the J. Ronald Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America’s Families in 2014. The organization’s mission is to “…recalibrate federal housing policy to more effectively address our nation’s critical affordable housing challenges and to meet the housing needs of future generations.”

Giving the keynote address at The Affordable Housing Developers Summit in Chicago, Terwilliger described an evolving “silent housing crisis.” He proclaimed that “A legacy of the great recession, the rental affordability crisis is often overlooked by policymakers, ignored by the media, and underestimated, at best, by the general public.” And although affordable housing is a bi-partisan issue, he stated that candidates don’t talk about the issue (housingfinance.com).

New Homes

So it should come as no surprise that the J. Ronald Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America’s Families and the Bipartisan Policy Center hosted a housing summit this past October. Speaking at the summit were a number of presidential candidates, policy makers, current and former Senators, a former HUD Secretary, local officials, and industry leaders and experts. Unfortunately, the presidential candidates that are still in the race, did not participate. The summit was held in New Hampshire, where housing costs for 36% of residents is more than 30% of their gross income; and median rents have increased 50% since 2000 (housingwire.com).

The housing summit seemed to inspire realtor.com chief economist Jonathan Smoke, who shortly afterward penned a statement declaring his candidacy for president as leader of the “Housing Party” (As President, I’ll Make American Housing Great Again—Really; realtor.com; October 21, 2015). Smoke believes that housing should be first on the national agenda stating, “The market won’t solve all of our housing problems on its own. And our government seems incapable of working together to find solutions that can help…” Laying out a detailed platform, Smoke proclaims that a vote for him would “…build our way to a stronger economy and more affordable housing for the middle class—a better America for all of us.” He said that he would work toward getting a home for every family.

But it may be that housing policy is a bit more complicated than just proclaiming “homes for everyone.” In a frank analysis of housing policy, Daniel Hertz laid out what seems to be diametrically opposed positions: policy should keep housing affordable so as not to price people out of the market; and policy should protect house values, because homes are an investment and wealth building vehicle (American Housing Policy’s Two Basic Ideas Pull Cities in Opposite Directions; theatlantic.com; October 14, 2015).

Hertz believes that these seemingly opposite policy positions can be “reconciled” by offering a wide variety of housing types for a broad range of incomes. Additionally, he discussed how local privately developed affordable housing programs (such as Montgomery County’s Workforce Housing and MPDU programs) is one avenue to a comprehensive housing policy.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2016

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Decluttering for a home sale and mental health

Spring is around the corner, and for many it is the time to get a home ready for sale. Decluttering is a key component of preparing a home sale; while it is the core of “spring cleaning” for the rest of us.

Besides being the beginning of the path to selling your home, researcher and writer Deane Alban stated that decluttering is also the “gateway to taking better care of other aspects of life.” She asserted that the human brain is “wired to respond positively to order;” and there are health benefits to clutter-free spaces; which promotes feeling “calm and energized” (Declutter Your Life for Less Stress, Better Mental Health; bebrainfit.com).

When it comes to clutter, we are not the same. There are degrees to the amount and types of clutter we collect. And for many, getting motivated to declutter is a challenge; severe clutter collections could be considered hoarding by some. Dr. Robert London, a psychiatrist specializing in behavior modification, wrote about his professional contemplation of the relationship between clutter, hoarding and obsessive compulsive personality disorder. After consulting with a Professional Organizer, he concluded that many can benefit from their much needed service of guidance in “letting go” and getting organized (Decluttering — Is it Therapy?; Organization professionals perform a valuable and, yes, therapeutic service; psychologytoday.com; November 5, 2010.).

Besides the psychological aspects that make us hold-on to “stuff,” one roadblock to decluttering is a common misconception that the goal is to have an immaculate home; which can make some feel anxious and/or overwhelmed (especially if the home sale is due to a negative life event). Instead, an underlying principle to decluttering is about creating an organized and spacious feel to a room. Another misconception is that you throw out everything you don’t need or want in your home; however, you have control over what items get thrown out, recycled, donated, or kept in storage.

One strategy to encourage your decluttering efforts is to plan. Rather than trying to complete the job in one weekend, try decluttering one room (or even one part of a room) per day; and for some, it may be as little as removing one or two items per day.

When going through each room, decide which items are necessities and which items need to go. You will undoubtedly come across many items that you decide are not necessary to keep out for everyone to see, yet they are personal or sentimental – these items can be stored. The items you decide that you no longer need or want can be donated, disposed of, or you might even decide to have a yard sale!

Of course, we are all busy; and finding time to declutter can be another obstacle to overcome. To help relieve the pressure, consider delegating responsibilities to family members. Consulting with professionals to guide your planning could save time as well. Some professionals even recommend a “decluttering party” as a way to ease the time crunch while making it fun.

Decluttering a home may feel as if it an exhausting task, but it doesn’t have to be; especially if you have a realistic plan. If you need help with your decluttering, you can check with your Realtor® (if you are planning a home sale) and/or you can consult with a Professional Organizer. The National Association of Professional Organizers (napo.net) maintains a national directory of Professional Organizers.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2016

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

What’s the controversy with laminate flooring?

Since my last installment of How your Home is Making You Sick, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has released and revised their analysis of certain types of Chinese laminate flooring. The initial release was found to have used an incorrect value for ceiling height, which calculated airborne concentration estimates about “3 times lower than they should have been.”

The increased interest in health concerns over certain types of Chinese laminate flooring was due in part to an exposé by CBS’ 60 Minutes (which aired March 1st, 2015) that investigated California home owners’ claims that certain types of laminate flooring sold by Lumber Liquidators was making them sick. The investigation alleged that the Chinese laminate flooring sold by Lumber Liquidators did not meet California Air Resources Board standards for formaldehyde emissions in wood flooring. Lumber Liquidators questioned the testing methodology and results (Lumber Liquidators; cbcnews.com; August 16th, 2015).

In a May 2015 press release, Lumber Liquidators stated that “Initial results of the indoor air quality testing program for certain laminate flooring customers – conducted by independent, accredited laboratories – indicate that over 97% of customers’ homes were within the protective guidelines established by the World Health Organization for formaldehyde levels in indoor air.” However, sales of the products in question were discontinued; and company has offered air quality test kits for those who have purchased laminate flooring from the company.

reduceformaldehyde
from “Laminate Flooring Test Results – Health Issues and Solutions” (cdc.gov)

Since the 60 Minutes exposé, the US Consumer Product Safety Commission (CSPC) tested samples of Chinese laminate flooring and along with the CDC issued “Laminate Flooring Test Results – Health Issues and Solutions”.   The consumer handout states that formaldehyde is found in many home products; and levels typically decrease after 2 years of installation. Recommendations in reducing health risks are also listed (cdc.gov/nceh/laminateflooring/docs/nceh-atsdr_laminate-flooring.pdf).

The February 10th CDC press release initial reported analysis conducted by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH) of the CSPC data “…found that formaldehyde levels observed in select laminate wood flooring products could cause short-term irritation for people in general and in some cases exacerbate asthma.  The risk of cancer associated with long-term exposure to the observed formaldehyde levels is considered extremely small…” (ATSDR and CDC Analysis Finds Possible Health Effects Associated with Formaldehyde in Select Laminate Flooring; cdc.gov).

However, a correction to the analysis was made several days later indicated that that although “the final results are not yet available,” the estimated conclusions are to be close to these: Exposure to the range of modeled levels of formaldehyde in indoor air could cause increased symptoms and other respiratory issues for people with asthma and COPD; Exposure to the lowest modeled levels of formaldehyde could result in eye, nose, and throat irritation for anyone; and The estimated risk of cancer is 6-30 cases per 100,000 people (increased from the initial “Low risk of cancer” 2-9 cases per 100,000 people). The CDC cautions that these revised results are “very conservative” and “the calculated risk is likely lower than our modeled estimate.”

Even though the results are revised, the CDC states that their recommendations will likely remain the same – “we strongly stress taking steps to reduce exposures, which should alleviate respiratory and eye, nose and throat irritation.”

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2016

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.