Real Estate News and Commentary

February 17, 2016July 13, 2019

Is a negative mortgage rate program in your future?

Five months ago I told you about the possibility of negative interest rates. Since then a lot has happened around the world (besides confirming the existence of gravitational waves): the Fed raised the target rate a quarter of a point in December; many are increasingly questioning the viability of the global economy; analysts point to geopolitics as a concern for economic stability; and Japan is the latest country to implement negative interest rates.

An increasing number of economists and financial experts have since openly discussed the specter of negative interest rates here in the U.S, as volatility in financial markets and global economies have many concerned. Such concerns may have prompted Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) to pose this question about negative interest rates to Fed Chair Janet Yellen during her testimony in the February 11th hearing “Semiannual Monetary Report to Congress” (banking.senate.gov); “…people are beginning to observe that the Fed is out of ammunition, unless you decide to go to negative rates…I’m not proposing this, I’m just observing what’s happening around the world and what’s happening here in our own country. I think people are waking up and realizing that the Fed has no real ammunition left…”

Even though the Fed recently raised the target rate from being near zero after almost seven years, the Fed anticipates future increases. However, Dr. Yellen stated in the past that negative interest rates are “not off the table” if the economy falters. This was reiterated (more or less) during her February 11^th testimony. Interestingly, Dr. Yellen revealed that the Fed considered negative interest rates back in 2010, but felt that negative interest rates would not have worked well to “foster accommodation” (increase money supply to the markets) at that time. Additionally, Dr. Yellen stated that “…we are looking at them again because we want to be prepared in the event we needed to add accommodation…” However, she also stated that the evaluation is not complete as it is not certain if negative interest rates would work well in the U.S.

Negative interest rates may seem like a good idea to stimulate bank lending; but Christopher Swann’s recent CNBC commentary (The consequences of negative interest rates; cnbc.com; February 16, 2016) indicates there are also unintended consequences. Lending, as a result, could tighten because of bank losses and subsequent liquidity issues. Consumers would bear the brunt of the losses as banks would increase fees. As banks try to recoup losses, depositors will be charged for savings; which may prompt consumers to move their money out of banks. Swann points out how Swiss and Danish banks have “…hiked borrowing costs for homeowners since negative rates were introduced.”

A CNN-Money report shed light on European banks and negative interest rate mortgage programs (The crazy world of negative rates: Banks pay your mortgage for you? money.cnn.com, April 22, 2015). Luca Bertalot, Secretary General of the European Mortgage Federation, stated that “We are in uncharted waters.” He went on to describe how banks dealt with the dilemma of negative interest rates, “…they [Spain’s Bankinter’s] could not pay interest to borrowers, but instead reduced the principal for some customers.”

Housing would undoubtedly boom in a negative interest rate environment. However, rather than paying consumers to borrow, a mortgage’s principal would be reduced over time. Rather than creating a bubble, long term negative mortgage rate programs could possibly devalue real estate; and change how we view it as an asset.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2016

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2016/02/17/is-a-negative-mortgage-rate-program-in-your-future/

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

February 11, 2016July 8, 2019

Build a case to make your lowball offer bulletproof

The process of making an offer to buy a home is fairly straightforward, provided that you don’t have competition from other buyers. The offer basically conveys the price you want to pay, and which inspections you want to conduct. Once the documents and addenda are completed, your agent will present the offer to the listing agent, who in turn presents it to the seller. The seller can accept, reject, or counter your offer.

Of course, the best scenario is that the seller accepts your offer without any counter to price and terms. However, if your offer is below list price, chances are that the seller will counter your price. And if your offer is significantly lower than list, the seller may reject the offer outright.

Since the great recession, an increasing number of homes for sale have serious issues due to deferred maintenance. It’s routine for homes in need of repair and/or a total renovation to receive low ball offers. Real estate investors typically don’t attach emotion to their offers, and as such making low offers on property is business as usual. But if you’re like the average home buyer, you may shy away from making a low ball offer fearing being rejected.

You can increase your chances of engaging the seller in working out a deal by packaging your offer correctly. The conventional wisdom is to make a “cash” offer that is non-contingent. The reasoning is that the owner would be more apt to take your lower offer knowing they don’t have to wait for a lender to approve your loan or worry about appraised value; or hassle with negotiating home inspection repairs.

This approach typically works in a buyer’s market, especially when home prices are declining (as we experienced from 2008 to 2010). However, this tactic may fall flat in today’s market for a number of reasons, including strong year-over-year home price gains, low listing inventory, and increased home buyer competition. Being confronted about their home’s value is a tough pill for a home seller to swallow, especially when they see other homes selling for more. Notwithstanding the seller’s ability to accurately interpret housing data; many sellers have high sale price expectations regardless of their homes’ condition, and rationalize a higher asking price – even when not justified.

Another reason this tactic has lost its effectiveness is that the enticement of a “cash” offer has lost its impact when in actuality it’s all about the sale price. Whether the sale is all cash or financed, the primary concern to the seller is the amount of money they net in the sale.

Non-contingent offers don’t go far enough when making a low offer on a home; you also need to build a case to help the seller understand the rationale of your offer. Have your agent comprehensively analyze the neighborhood market and include the analysis in your offer. The analysis should be detailed and point out differences that add and negate value to the comps and the subject property. Your offer should also include a detailed estimate on repairs and updates (from a licensed contractor).

Making the seller aware of the differences between their home and neighborhood comps, as well as educating them on the costs associated with repairs and updates goes a long way in getting a seller to better understand the value of their home, and moves you closer to making the deal.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2016

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February 4, 2016July 23, 2019

Evolving real estate scams – vigilance needed

Last year, an old wire transfer scam evolved to target Realtors® and their clients. A December 15^th “Alert” put out by the National Association of Realtors® (realtor.org) reminded NAR members and consumers to be vigilant. “The hackers often send an email that appears to be from an individual legitimately involved in the transaction, informing the recipient, often the buyer, that there has been a last minute change to the wiring instructions. Following the new instructions, the recipient will wire funds directly to the hacker’s account, which will be cleared out in a matter of minutes. The money is almost always lost forever.”

NAR offers guidance and “best practices” to prevent being a victim of scams and cybercrime. Even though your agent should be mindful and exercise caution, you should take the initiative to protect yourself. You should be attentive and alert to the possibility of email scams by: not sending sensitive information via email; never trust unverified email; you should not interact with suspicious emails; clean your email regularly; do not conduct business over free WiFi hotspots; and use strong passwords that are changed regularly.

NAR stipulates that the guidance is “not all-inclusive,” and you should check with your agent about their office’s cybersecurity policy. The warning states that the scammer emails are “extremely convincing,” such that “many sophisticated parties have been duped.” No one is “too small” to target, and don’t be over confident about being tech savvy. “This fraud is pervasive, convincing, and constantly evolving.”

According to an August 28th report issued by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (Business E-Mail Compromise, An Emerging Global Threat; fbi.gov) BEC (Business E-Mail Compromise) is an insidious scam that is not only targeting real estate, but all businesses and consumers. According to FBI Special Agent Maxwell Marker (of the FBI’s Transnational Organized Crime–Eastern Hemisphere Section in the Criminal Investigative Division), “BEC is a serious threat on a global scale…It’s a prime example of organized crime groups engaging in large-scale, computer-enabled fraud, and the losses are staggering.”

BEC statistics compiled by the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center (ic3.gov), from October 2013 to August 2015 reported 8,179 total victims (U.S. and non-U.S.) and $798,897,959.25 combined U.S. and non-U.S. exposed dollar loss. The IC3 has reported that computer intrusions related to BEC are on the rise; and can be initiated via a phishing scam that downloads malware that can access the victim’s data, passwords, and financial information.

Multiple versions of the scam are being implemented, and it’s likely that the tactics will change as cybersecurity catches up with the scammers. The most recent version identified by the IC3 has fraudsters claiming to be a law firm handling confidential information (including real estate transactions). The scammer may use email and/or telephone to contact potential victims, who are pressured to act quickly at the end of the business day.

To learn more about BEC, protection strategies and how file a complaint – visit the Internet Crime Complaint Center (ic3.gov). If you are a victim of BEC, the IC3 recommends that you: contact your financial institution immediately; request that your financial institution contact the corresponding financial institution where the fraudulent transfer was sent; contact your local FBI office (if the wire is recent, the US Department of Treasury Financial Crimes Enforcement Network might be able to help return or freeze the funds); and, regardless of dollar loss, file a complaint with the IC3.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2016

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January 28, 2016July 8, 2019

After the blizzard home maintenance

The warm weather that occurred early in the season probably gave many of us a false sense of security, such that we may have put off the pre-winter inspection. The good news is that it’s not too late; and you should check out your home’s roof, gutters, and the surrounding grounds after the blizzard – even if you’ve already conducted a pre-winter inspection.

The blizzard of 2016 dumped a lot snow, and I’m sure you’ve heard about the collapsed roofs. Even if your roof survived, the stress of the accumulated snow may have caused damage that you won’t see unless you inspect the roofing system (including joists and beams). If your roof is already compromised, the amount of snow or ice it can handle is significantly reduced; and can push it toward failing when you need it the most. Don’t think that your home is immune from such damage; I have experienced home inspections that uncovered a cracked roof truss in an otherwise pristine home.

According to the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (disastersafety.org), the average residential roof is designed to hold 20lbs per square foot of snow; beyond that, the roof system becomes “stressed.” Ten to twelve inches of fresh snow is estimated to apply about 5lbs of stress. And given the equation, the Institute says that an average roof in good condition should be able to withstand the stress of up to four feet of fresh snow. “Old” (compacted) snow and ice applies more force than fresh snow, and should be monitored closely in multiple snow events.

Another source of roof and gutter problems during and after a blizzard stem from ice dams. An “ice dam” is formed by the melting and refreezing of snow (or ice). When an ice dam forms on the roof and/or gutters, the expansion of the ice can loosen shingles as well as create gaps in gutters. Damage from ice dams formed during the blizzard has the potential for future damage from heavy spring rains. Loose shingles and gapped gutters can allow water to penetrate the home via ceilings and walls, in addition to allowing roof water runoff directly towards the home’s foundation.

Inspecting your home after a severe weather event can help identify maintenance issues and prevent future headaches; and in some situations, may uncover an urgent safety issue. FEMA’s 2013 Risk Management Series-Snow Load Safety Guide (fema.gov) lists warning signs of an “overstressed” roof to include (but is not limited to): any sagging of ceiling; sagging sprinkler lines or heads; popping, cracking, and creaking noises; sagging roof members; bowing truss members; doors and/or windows that can no longer be opened or closed; cracked or split wood members; cracks in walls; and/or severe roof leaks. If you observe any of these warning signs, FEMA recommends evacuating the home and consulting a structural engineer to inspect and assess the structural integrity of the home.

The amount of snow that a blizzard delivers can saturate the grounds surrounding your home; and if not drained properly, the ground can become supersaturated during spring showers (which can become a flood risk). Once the snow has melted, check the surrounding yard and remove any debris and downed trees that can impede proper drainage (which can also be a hazard during high winds). Make sure downspouts are secure and functional, so as to deposit water away from the home’s foundation.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2016

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January 22, 2016December 13, 2022

Selling your home is always about the price

Pricing a home for a sale is not always easy. There is an abundance of empirical research that has confirmed the many variables that affect sales price. Some influences are manageable and some are not. The top factors to consider when pricing your home to sell include location, condition, features, and timing.

Your home’s physical location is one of the top factors that will affect its sale price. Although home prices vary from neighborhood to neighborhood, your home’s location within the neighborhood could also impact the sale price. Homes located on commuter routes typically sell for less because of the traffic and noise. Even homes located just off of the thoroughfare can be impacted by the perception of traffic and noise; the sale price could be lower than a similar home situated further away from the main road.

A home can sell for more when located close to neighborhood amenities; however, the price could drop if perceived too close. Neil Metz’s research (Effect of Distance to Schooling on Home Prices. The Review of Regional Studies 45.2 (2015):151-171.) indicated that homes located close to schools tend to sell for more. However, the opposite was found with homes within 1,000 feet from schools; the home sale price decreased as the distance from the school closed in from 1,000 feet (probably due to congestion and noise). This effect is typically true for other neighborhood amenities such as shopping areas.

Repairing and upgrading your home prior to listing can increase the sale price. In contrast, deferred maintenance can not only deter home buyers – it could attract low offers; especially if the home has been on the market for a lengthy period. Many home buyers are looking for a “turn-key” home, where they don’t have to be concerned about immediate maintenance; while some are willing to put in the time and effort to personalize a home. If you’re making updates to your home, consider that the quality and installation of upgrades can impacts price as well; cheap fixtures and sloppy workmanship can have a similar affect as deferred maintenance.

Your home’s amenities can also impact the sale price. For example, features such as a finished basement or deck can be appealing and add value. Even green amenities can impact sales price. Research conducted by Cadena and Thomson (An Empirical Assessment of the Value of Green in Residential Real Estate. The Appraisal Journal 83.1 (Winter 2015): 32-40.) concluded that homes that were designated “green” increased sale price by 1%, while certified green homes increased sale price about 2%; however, energy efficient features increased sales price by about 6%!

Finally, your sales price can be affected by the timing of the sale. Miller, Sah, Sklarz, and Pampulov (Is there seasonality in home prices-evidence from CBSAs. Journal of Housing Research, 22(1) (2013), 1-15) conducted a comprehensive study of home sales that occurred in 138 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs are geographic population centers set by the Office of Management and Budget for use by Federal agencies in collecting, and publishing statistics) from February 2000 to April 2011. They concluded that monthly price changes can vary through the year; and homes that sell during summer months (April through September) typically sell for more than homes that sell during the winter (October through March). However, they point out that the seasonality effect could be due to weather; there is less price variance in areas with less temperature variation.

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