What’s a home worth – Appraisals, market analyses, and price opinions

house valuesWhat’s the value of my home?” is a question that is often asked by many home owners at least once, usually before they decide to refinance or list their home for sale.  Although the question seems straight forward enough, the answer may not be – and can vary depending on whom you ask.

Market Value can have different meanings.  Some may view a home’s value in terms of an asset on a balance sheet, while others may consider a home’s value as a potential sales price.  And although these approaches to value may be similar, there is often significant disparity in their conclusions.

Mortgage lenders consider a home to be an asset, which is the basis for lending you money; as well as the basis for bundling and selling mortgages on Wall Street.  Additionally, a home is often considered an asset or liability when determining the disposition of legal proceedings, such as (but not limited to) probate and divorce.  A real estate appraisal is most likely used in determining market value for these situations.

According to the Appraisal Institute (Pamphlet “Some Commonly Asked Questions About Real Estate Appraisers and Appraisals”; appraisalinstitute.org), “An appraisal is a professional appraiser’s opinion of value. The preparation of an appraisal involves research into appropriate market areas; the assembly and analysis of information pertinent to a property; and the knowledge, experience and professional judgment of the appraiser.”  Additionally, Title 16 of the Business Occupations and Professions, Annotated Code of Maryland defines an “appraisal” as a “…means an analysis, conclusion, or opinion about the nature, quality, utility, or value of interests in or aspects of identified real estate” (§ 16-101. Definitions).

Not to be confused with an appraisal, a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) can assist a home owner with deciding on a listing or sales price.  In fact, § 16-101 differentiates a CMA from an appraisal by stating, “’Appraisal’ does not include an opinion to a potential seller or third party by a person licensed under Title 17 of this article [referring to a real estate broker] about the recommended listing price or recommended purchase price of real estate, provided that the opinion is not referred to as an appraisal.”

If you are asking about the value of your home because you’re planning a home sale, consider consulting with a real estate and a CMA.  Although a thorough and professional CMA is not an appraisal, a CMA is a technical and methodical procedure that is typically limited to a specific neighborhood or subdivision so as to offer a rationale for a probable listing or sales price.  Unlike appraisal methodology, which is uniform; there is no standard approach to preparing a CMA; however, a comprehensive CMA can be technical and systematic, as well as offering a market trends analysis in one, three, and six month segments.

Many lenders have also turned to agent prepared CMA’s to assist in determining potential listing or sales prices for distressed assets (e.g., foreclosures and short sales).  Also known as broker price opinions, these CMA’s provide a market snapshot to assist with such disposition decisions.

The value of your home will vary depending on whom you ask; your neighbor may even have an opinion.  However, if you’re planning a home sale, an experienced agent and their detailed CMA may be your best source of information to decide on a listing price.

by Dan Krell © 2013
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Disclaimer.  This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice.  Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction.  This article was originally published the week of December 16, 2013 (Montgomery County Sentinel). Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

Games people play in real estate

games people play

Studies suggest that your experience during a real estate transaction may depend on you and your agent’s ability to communicate. Clear communication between you and your agent should leave no doubt about your intentions, as well as your agent’s ability to convey and interpret motivations from your counterpart. How to understand the games people play in real estate.

A pop-psychology theory called Transactional Analysis, originally used as a psychotherapeutic tool, has been touted as a way to facilitate communication and assertiveness. One of the giants in the field was Dr. Eric Berne, whose work seems to carry more weight in the corporate world today as it did when his self help book “Games People Play” was first published in the 1960’s.

Games people play during real estate transactions

Have you ever wondered why a certain person makes you respond in a way, which, after the fact you thought was unpleasant or embarrassing? Transactional Analysis theory suggests that, unbeknownst to many, we often react and interact with each other in a way that can be described as games. Not so much the games that you might think, but more precisely these are psycho-emotional games that are played to satisfy unconscious needs that were not met during our childhood and adolescence (also called ulterior motives). And because these behaviors and traits are part of our behavioral “repertoire,” we are more than likely unaware of them in many situations. These ulterior motives can get in the way of a successful real estate transaction.

A simple explanation of Dr. Berne’s theory is that there are three mindsets from which we interact: the parent, the adult, and the child. When you interact as the “parent,” you are acting much like you perceived how your parents’ responded to situations; acting as the “child,” you react as you would have when you were very young. However, when you interact as the “adult,” you are reacting autonomously and objectively. Conflicts can arise when the mindsets are not amenable.

For example, if you’re butting heads with your agent because both of you are claiming to be the expert and the other should listen intently, chances are that both of you may be interacting with each other in a “parent” mindset. Likewise, if a home buyer and seller tantrum and attempt to bully each other over accepting the other’s offer, they are most likely reacting as the “child.” While the objective “adult” interacts and reacts free from unconscious motivations, and is most likely to communicate clearly and resolve most issues that interfere with a successful transaction.

Negotiation, like communication, is sometimes described as a game of personalities. It is a common misconception successful negotiators are good at bluffing; this belief may actually originate from a person’s own unconscious tendency toward dishonest communication described by Berne as “ulterior motives.” In fact, top negotiators happen to be honest communicators. Even though Sun Tzu’s “The Art of War” is often thought of as a metaphor for negotiation, it might be considered an early precursor to Transactional Analysis, since the piece is about sizing up and dealing with your counterpart.

This article not meant to give psychiatric advice (please seek a mental health professional if necessary); rather, this is meant to offer an alternate perspective of communication with your agent and counterpart. Regardless of the outcome, communication is a key factor in determining whether your home buying and selling experience will be positive or negative.

by Dan Krell
© 2013

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Disclaimer.  This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice.  Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction.  Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

New real estate economics

A new economic paradigm for housing markets. The new real estate economics are about recovery trends and bubble fears.

real estate bubble

Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors®, stated in a November 8th news release, “…existing-home sales have shown a 20 percent cumulative increase over the past two years, while prices have gained 18 percent, but incomes have risen only 2 to 4 percent in the same timeframe.” Additionally, it is expected that existing home sales to maintain 2013 gains through 2014; and home prices to continue and upward trend (realtor.org).

The 2014 prediction for U.S. housing sounds great. But does this mean we are expecting increased multiple offer situations with further plummeting of average days on market? In a post housing bubble world, some wonder if this year’s real estate activity is sustainable – maybe it was no coincidence that some descriptions of hot housing markets sounded like the go-go market that occurred during the housing bubble years. And yet with hindsight, should we be concerned about “priming the pumps” for another housing bubble?

Sentiment about over-valued markets around the world was expressed by none other than Robert Shiller. Shiller, of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences this year for the “empirical analysis of asset prices.” And if Robert Shiller is talking about over-valued markets, maybe we should listen.

Shiller’s book, “Irrational Exuberance” is said to have made the argument for the dot-come (2000 edition) and housing (2005 edition) bubbles, as well as predicting the subsequent market crashes. (Interestingly, the book title is said to be taken from an Allan Greenspan speech described the rapid cycling stock market activity of the mid 1990’s.)

Two weeks after Janet Yellen’s confirmation hearings to become Chairperson of the Fed, Robert Shiller was interviewed by the German magazine Der Spiegel. Yellen’s responses to Senators during the hearing suggested that there were no bubbles in equities and housing, although she conceded that bubbles are hard to predict; while Shiller expressed concern about over-valued equities in many markets throughout the world, as well as a sharp rise in home prices in some global real estate markets (including some U.S. real estate markets such as Las Vegas). Shiller made specific mention of the U.S. Stock market saying that data is suggesting an equities bubble. However, as he cautioned that it might be too early to sound the alarm, there is an expectation that the market will go even higher.

Is this the new real estate economics?

Are bubbles such a bad thing? Economist Matthew Klein (Is the Only Choice Bubbles or Recession?; Bloomberg; Nov 19, 2013) speculates that bubbles may actually be an important part of a modern economic cycle that allows for growth in various sectors. He states “…bubbles can transform wealth that would otherwise be stashed in government bonds and other safe assets into income for those who work in the expanding parts of the economy.” However, many economists assert that eroding wealth and savings to artificially grow an economy is dangerous and unsustainable.

How will real estate economics play out? Getting back to the NAR press release, Yun credited the current sales and price trends to a lack of housing inventory and buyer demand. Unfortunately, housing inventory is at about a thirteen year low; and unless inventory increases we can expect an interesting year ahead.

by Dan Krell
© 2013

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Disclaimer.  This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice.  Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction.  Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

High end real estate and hot markets

Luxury Homes

High end real estate is hot and is pushing home price limits to new levels. And although many luxury home buyers are seeking homes that are in vogue, other high net worth home buyers are looking for other things in their homes.

Many high end home buyers want their homes to be a piece of art; and it seems as if there is a market for pairing art and real estate. What seems to pair luxury real estate and art is Art Basel (the annual premier art show) in Miami, where luxury real estate agents are flocking to make sales.

According to The Miami Herald, South Florida developers have paired “exceptional art” with high end real estate to create something special. And there is a market for it.

However, while many luxury home buyers are looking for exquisite art, other buyers of high end real estate are looking for “safe havens.” These home buyers are looking for established markets that are performing well and have a history of stability.

Not sure where the hot high end real estate markets are located? According to Zillow some of the top luxury real estate markets are New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco Bay Area, Miami, and Washington DC. The metro DC area includes Maryland and Virginia, and is not only the seat of power – but is also culturally significant offering a wide variety of art and music. The superlative selection of high end homes in the DC metro area offer a multitude of home styles and locations for most any life style; many high end home inquiries in the Maryland area include Bethesda, Potomac and Chevy Chase.

by Dan Krell © 2013

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Increasing anger about real estate issues

real estate bullyWhat’s behind the increasing anger about real estate issues?

Did you know there is an anger epidemic in the U.S.? Dan Bowens of Fox 5 (New York) cited a USA Today study indicating that 60% of American adults polled reported they had angry or irritable feelings – which is a 50% increase from a 2011 poll. And if you are in a service industry, such as a real estate, you not only encounter the occasional obstinate client; but you can also find yourself engaged with bullies.

by Dan Krell © 2013

According to the American Psychological Association (apa.org), “Anger is an emotion characterized by antagonism toward someone or something you feel has deliberately done you wrong.” Anger can be used constructively to solve problems, but it can also cause problems that can interfere with thinking and “…harm your physical and mental health…”

Anger was common when the market declined: Many home owners were irate about deflated home values; many other home owners were outraged about their underwater mortgages, while others were furious about lenders foreclosing on homes. In fact, it was common to see foreclosures that were trashed by the owners as a way to express their anger.

Anger was also common as the market strengthened: Home sellers were irritated by buyer push back on price. Many home buyers were frustrated about multiple offer situations on some homes; while a few buyers were aggravated by the notion that they were no longer able to purchase foreclosures at steep discounts.

Regardless of the reasons for America’s reported increase in anger, the issue really isn’t the anger per se; anger is a useful emotion that can be productive. But rather, anger seems to be increasingly manifesting in irrational and aggressive means – even in the real estate industry.

A recent edition of Realtor® Magazine (Daily Real Estate News; October 20, 2013) reported that there are increasing incidents of physical assaults of real estate agents; attacks have been reported in model homes, open houses, as well as in their offices. Although these acts of physical aggression are increasing; the article did not report or discuss the more common verbal aggression, which includes threats and intimidation.

Anyone can get caught up in their anger and cross a line; agents, clients, neighbors, and even those who are engaged in a seemingly noble neighborhood cause are not immune. Fortunately, anger can be short lived and resolved; however, if the anger becomes all consuming – it may be time for mental health intervention.

The anger statistics didn’t surprise me. It seems as if we can find something to be angry about if we want to. However, it may be worthwhile, especially those who have been chronically angry and have lashed out at those who do not acquiesce or comply, to let go and be thankful for the good in our lives.

Goal Auzeen Saedi, Ph.D. sums it well (Why Are We Americans So Angry? Psychology Today; Millennial Media; April 30, 2013): “But what do we do with all of this anger? We let go. We forgive. We meditate and pray. We surround ourselves with loved ones…There are parts of all of us that could be made softer and kinder. We can learn to see the good in each of us that exists and teach our children to do so. Or we can continue to get angry, bully each other, make threats and demands. It is our choice.

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More news and articles on “the Blog”
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Disclaimer.  This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice.  Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction.  This article was originally published the week of November 25, 2013 (Montgomery County Sentinel). Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.