Has the real estate market reached the turning point? (Market statistics and trends)

by Dan Krell

As indicated by the slight increase in the Consumer Confidence Index (ConferenceBoard.org), which edged up in August to 56.9, signs may point to a slightly improving economy. As consumer confidence increases, we may see home sales increase as well. Take for example the Mortgage Bankers Association reporting an increase in mortgage applications (8/27/2008 mortgagebankers.org), as well as the National Association of Realtors (Realtor.org) reporting that nationwide existing home sales have increased 3.1% in July (which is reported to be a five month high!).

Does this mean that the real estate market has turned a corner? Many remain cautious.

Other housing related reports are mixed, however. The NAR reports that although overall housing inventory (homes listed for sale) is up, single family home inventory has declined. The increased housing inventory is attributed to a sudden increase of condominium inventory.

Locally, Montgomery County single family home inventory has dropped slightly in July 2008, while sales have also dropped slightly in July from June 2008 sales (data reported by the Greater capital Area Association of Realtors). However, a few individual zip codes and neighborhoods continue to show signs of recovery by posting sales increases, price increases, or both (data derived from Metro Regional Information Systems, Inc.; MRIS.com). Neighborhoods hit hardest by foreclosures continue to lag behind in sales.

What do home buyers think? A recent Harris Interactive poll, commissioned by Move.com (news.move.com), reports that 81% of home buyers polled are anxious about the current housing market and feel there are barriers to their homeownership. However, of those polled, 44% of home buyers believe the real estate market will improve with a new president. Additionally, 41% of current homeowners polled plan to purchase a home again, 80% of all renters polled plan to purchase a home someday with 47% planning to purchase a home within the next five years.

Of those reporting barriers to homeownership, the top barriers reported were current home prices (31%), lack of down payment (28%), “lack of confidence in economy” (26%), and various personal and financial concerns. Although many polled report a barrier to home ownership, 78% of home buyers polled report that they were willing to save for down payments as well as compromise on various criteria they are searching for in their home (including neighborhood and local amenities).

So what can we expect? Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, was reported as saying in a NAR news release (8/25/2008) that home prices could increase in the few localized markets where sales have appreciably improved. He continued to say that many market area inventories remain high and will take time to shrink; however he reports that 2009 will be a more “balanced” market. He expects that “long term appreciation patterns” will eventually return.

According to MRIS’s “Trends in Housing” (mid-year 2008), foreclosures will continue to trouble the local market; the Washington, DC region’s foreclosure rate this past spring (131 per 10,000) has outpaced the national rate (87 per 10,000). However, expectations are that decreased inventory along with increased housing demand (due to job growth and relatively low interest rates) will increase market activity by early 2009. It is expected that close-in neighborhoods will see these signs of recovery first, shortly followed by the outer suburbs.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of September 1, 2008. Copyright © 2008 Dan Krell.

Urban Living Makes a Comeback!

by Dan Krell
Google+

As the real estate market struggles to find a foothold, many are already speculating on the next real estate boom. The next real estate boom will not be as widespread nor will it be all inclusive as the last market surge; however, some speculate that it will be a highly competitive market nonetheless. The next wave in real estate will be localized to the downtown districts and surrounding neighborhoods of urban centers as a result of the (seemingly) ever increasing fuel and commuting costs.

A 1998 Brookings Institute and Fannie Mae study projected that urban living will attract more residences to the downtown areas. The study projected growth through 2010 in twenty-four cities around the country and used a very conservative definition of downtown (usually the financial districts) and did not include the surrounding neighborhoods. It was projected that some cities will have modest growth while other cities will have explosive growth (Baltimore’s downtown population was projected to increase 5.8%, while Cleveland’s downtown population was projected to increase 228.1%).

The economics of energy is not only affecting grains and food prices, it is influencing real estate trends as well. The recent sharp increase in gas prices and road congestion are making many re-think their home location. Suburban home owners as well as home buyers are looking to move closer to their jobs and save possibly thousands of dollars per year. A National Association of Realtors study reported that 28% of home owners surveyed indicated that high fuel costs were a decision to sell their home, while 40% of home buyers surveyed indicated that high fuel and commuting costs offset the higher home prices closer to the city center. Based on the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority cost calculator (WMATA.com), eliminating a drive of 15 miles round trip can save over $500 per month or $6,000 per year (the figure is based on the GSA reimbursement rate).

Not everyone who is moving “inward” is doing so for work. Many moving closer to downtown areas are expressing the desire to be able to walk to stores and entertainment, while others are drawn to the unique architecture of the older homes.

Local downtown areas have been undergoing urban renewal for years. Large renewal projects that include modern amenities have been designed to draw commercial activity as well as attract residences. With a vision of the future, builders have planned and designed high density developments as well as many mixed use (residential and commercial) urban projects to keep up with the anticipated demand for urban living.

Although not everyone wants to live close to the urban centers and downtown areas, home builders did get the message that many do want to live close to amenities. New suburban communities are designed around existing or new town centers that include shopping, entertainment and access to mass transportation (or are close to metro stations).

If you are considering moving closer to (any) downtown area, don’t let the home prices discourage you. If you consider your commuting costs (including gas, parking, time in traffic) from the suburbs as well as proximity to amenities, your urban home purchase may be more attractive.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of May 5, 2008. Copyright © 2008 Dan Krell.

Have you unknowingly perpetrated Mortgage Fraud?

You’ve probably read a few recent articles featuring victims of the mortgage crisis. Many of these home owners claimed to have been duped into obtaining loans that they could not afford. One recent article described how the home owner went along with a plan to obtain a mortgage that involved using someone else’s credit as well as artificially inflating their bank account to qualify. Is the home owner guilty of mortgage fraud if she knowingly follows the scheme of their real estate agent and/or mortgage broker to deceive the lender to qualify for a mortgage?

Among the many crime reports published by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is the Mortgage Fraud Report. According to the 2006 Mortgage Fraud Report (https://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/publications/mortgage-fraud-2006) mortgage fraud is defined as “the intentional misstatement, misrepresentation, or omission by an applicant or other interested parties, relied on by a lender or underwriter to provide funding for, to purchase, or to insure a mortgage loan.” As the Maryland and Virginia areas are described as being significantly affected by mortgage fraud, the FBI cited recent increases of mortgage fraud are due to many perpetrators of fraud who have taken advantage of recent lenient credit standards.

The FBI divides mortgage fraud into two categories, fraud-for-profit and fraud-for-property. Fraud-for-profit typically involves schemes or scams for financial gain. According to the FBI, fraud-for-profit schemes (also referred to as “industry insider fraud”) often involves artificially inflating property values, obtaining loans on non-existent properties, or “revolve equity.” Illegal flipping schemes that commonly use straw buyers and fraudulent appraisals are examples of fraud-for-profit.

Fraud-for-property, however, is the misrepresentation by a borrower so as to obtain a loan to purchase a home. Fraud-for-housing increased in recent years due to the rise of home prices; applicants would provide misleading or false employment, income, and asset information to the lender to qualify for the loan. Although the intent of the borrower is to repay the loan, this activity is still illegal and can lead to Federal prosecution.

To avoid becoming involved in a mortgage fraud scheme, the FBI provides these tips: If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is; Get referral for real estate and mortgage professionals and check the licenses with regulatory agencies; Be wary of strangers and unsolicited contacts, as well as high-pressure sales techniques; Look at written information to verify the value of the property; Understand what you are signing and agreeing to – If you do not understand, seek assistance from an attorney; Make sure the name on your application matches the name on your identification; Review the title history to determine if the property has been “flipped” and the value falsely inflated; Know and understand the terms of your mortgage (Check your information against the information in the loan documents to ensure they are accurate and complete); Never sign any loan documents that contain blanks as this leaves you vulnerable to fraud.

Mortgage fraud is not a victimless crime. Besides foreclosed upon borrowers and mortgage entities, other victims include legitimate borrowers and those living in neighborhoods affected by mortgage fraud.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2008/03/25/have-you-unknowingly-perpetrated-mortgage-fraud/

By Dan Krell

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Copyright © 2008 Dan Krell.

Creative financing can lead to creative trouble

by Dan Krell
Google+

Several weeks ago, my client encountered The Amazing Criswell of real estate. Without knowing anything about my client’s home, this real estate agent professed to know how many homes are for sale in his neighborhood, the price the home would sell for, and time it would remain on the market. Much to my client’s dismay, the agent expressed an interest to discuss a proposal to sell his home quickly and for more than the list price. Needless to say, my client did not call him.

There is always someone pushing their angle on how to sell your home faster, make more money, or buy with no money. Some of these “real estate solutions” could even be called schemes; many schemes are not practical, some are outrageous, and some are blatantly illegal. Presently, the temptation to think outside the box tends to be more prevalent since financing guidelines are more restrictive, and for many it means needing more cash for a higher down payment, closing costs, or reserves.

Aside from creative financing options that offer seller financing, land installment contracts, or leases with the option to purchase, there are schemes that provide creative gifts of money to the home buyer so they can qualify for their loan. One of the more blatantly illegal schemes involves a “gift” from the home seller to the home buyer while increasing the sale price to exceed the listing price; the gift is not disclosed to the lender as well as exchanged outside of settlement. This scheme essentially creates a 100% financing loan from a loan that technically requires some form of down payment.

A graduate student who researched this type of transaction for his Ph.D. in finance (as reported in the New York Times “The Cash-Back Mortgage,” June 10, 2007) found that the “cash back” scheme is more prevalent than previously thought. He found that people advertised such deals through advertising and through key words in the MLS (the study revealed 150 keywords were used).

Additional findings suggested that this type of transaction would occur when homes were on the market for long periods of time, yet sold above the original list price. Furthermore, these types of transactions tend be executed by the same real estate agents (who are either the seller and/or they are the only agent in the transaction). Ironically, most of these deals were perpetrated through loans packaged in bundles and sold on Wall Street.

A subtler form of this cash back scheme occurs when the seller provides closing help to the buyer, but raises the sale price beyond the list price to make up the difference. Although the closing help is disclosed to the lender and recorded on the settlement sheet, this transaction could be illegal. Federal law (18 U.S.C. 1014) forbids providing false statements and/or willfully overvaluing land to influence a lender’s behavior in providing a loan. In fact, a New Jersey State Judiciary committee stated that an attorney knowingly participating in such a transaction is ethical misconduct.

In today’s market, it is tempting to look for creative methods to sell or buy a home. However, before you agree to any creative financing proposal, consult with an attorney to determine its validity and legality.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of March 17, 2008. Copyright © 2008 Dan Krell.

Buying "as-is" means as-is; or does it?

by Dan Krell
Google+

The home seller, unless exempt, is obligated to provide a property disclosure or disclaimer to the home buyer. Sometimes a home seller will disclose the home’s condition by answering all the questions on the form; other times the home seller will provide disclaimer statement that you are buying the home “as-is.”

There really isn’t one answer why a home seller would provide a property disclaimer, although there are many situations where providing a property disclaimer is appropriate.

The disclaimer statement practically states that the home seller makes no representations or warranties as to the property condition. Additionally, you, as the purchaser, agree to accept the property “as is” with all defects, including latent defects- except as otherwise stated in the real estate contract of sale. The statement says it all, you basically take the home “as-is.”

This is all well and good, except that the contract has a condition of property/equipment, maintenance and condition clause (depending on the contract your Realtor is using) as well as a termite inspection clause. The condition of property/equipment, maintenance and condition clause states that the home will be delivered in essentially the same condition as at time of contract acceptance and that mechanical items (such as HVAC, electric, etc.) will be in good working order at time of settlement.

The termite inspection clause essentially says that seller is responsible for remediating any termite or wood destroying insect infestation and damage. However, the Maryland Association of Realtors Residential Contract gives the home seller the option to void the contract if the cost of treatment and repair exceeds 2% of the sale price and the home buyer does not want to pay the excess.

Additionally, a home seller is required to disclose all known latent defects. A latent defect is described as being a defect that a home buyer would not know of even through a careful inspection, and could pose a threat to their health or safety (as described in the Maryland Residential Property Disclosure and Disclaimer Statement).

In addition to the property disclaimer, there is an “as-is” clause in the Addendum of Clauses. This “as-is” clause states that all clauses pertaining to the property condition and termites are considered deleted from the contract. This “as-is” clause still requires the home seller to deliver the property free and clear of debris and trash.

A true story about “as-is” and latent defects: A family purchases a home with a pool in “as-is” condition. The home buyers attempt to open the pool for the summer, however the pool company they contact explains that the pool cannot be opened unless it is repaired. The pool had major cracks and leaked when filled. When contacted, the home seller stated that he had no knowledge about the defect. The home seller could no longer deny knowledge of the defect and eventually came clean when he was confronted by a long list of witnesses (including the pool company) who would testify that he knew of the pool problems. In the end the home seller paid for the pool repair.

Because “as-is” can have different meanings in a real estate contract, it is always a good idea to consult an attorney on your obligations when entering into an “as-is” transaction.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of March 3, 2008. Copyright © 2008 Dan Krell.