Autumn Home Selling

autumn home selling
Autumn home selling

What was once considered a winding down period for the year’s home sales, has become housing’s second wind.  Autumn is not only a time when the leaves start falling, but it also has become a target selling season for home sellers who miss the spring market.  Autumn home selling is also a second chance for those who could not sell their home earlier in the year.  In fact, the fall has become an active home selling season.

The general consensus for the autumn home selling phenomenon is that home sale inventory is low.  But the truth is that the fall tends to be when home sale inventory begins to decrease anyway.  Many home sellers who didn’t sell their home during the spring or summer will be pulling their homes off the market.  Sure, new listings are available during the fall, but not as many as there were in the spring.  Fall is a time for home buyers and sellers to strike while the iron is hot.  The combination of fewer listings along with serious home buyers and sellers makes the fall housing market a brisk selling time. 

This year, autumn home selling may be different.  Existing home sales have declined year-to-date (compared to last year).  The National Association of Realtors reported that as of June, existing home sales are about 2.2 percent behind last year’s sales.  Year-to-date Montgomery County home sales are 2.1 percent below last year’s sales.  This decline actually started last fall.  The home sale drop-off stifled what could have been a record year for 2018 home sales.

Autumn home selling

If you’re selling a home this fall keep an eye on neighborhood home sales.  Setting a reasonable list price will be key to getting your home sold.  Keep in mind that although home sale prices continue to climb, monthly appreciation is slowing.  The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (spindices.com) reported a year-to-date nationwide 2.29 percent increase.  You get a sense of the magnitude of decelerating appreciation when compared to 2018’s increase of 4.55 percent, and 2017’s increase of 6.24 percent nationwide.  The year-to-date Montgomery County average home sale price is about $554,932, which is only an increase of 1.2 percent from the same time last year (MarketStats by ShowingTime). 

Over pricing your home can be a disastrous mistake during the fall market.  Don’t be greedy, and be prepared to adjust your pricing strategy.  There are many storms brewing that can easily scare home buyers.  If the list price is too high, you may end up with low ball offers because of a protracted time in the MLS. 

Although having less competition makes it a good time to sell your home, it can also be challenging.  Fall weather can be significantly different day to day.  Be prepared to adjust the thermostat.  Make sure your HVAC system gets a fall service so it will be ready for colder temps.   

Don’t forget to keep up with your home’s curb appeal.  Although you may want to get lazy about maintaining your lawn, don’t let it grow too high.  Also, remove excessive leaves from the ground too, as this can also diminish your home’s curb appeal.

Make accommodations for home buyers to visit your home.  Many home buyers will probably schedule tours after work, when it will be getting dark.  Open houses are still a good option for a fall home sale.  Turnout may be scant, but fall open house visitors are more likely to buy.

Original article is located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/09/15/autumn-home-selling/

By Dan Krell
Copyright© 2019

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Quick sale investor promise?

Is a quick sale to a real estate investor worth it?

House flipping is a misunderstood industry.  Sure, these investors promise a quick sale, but legitimate home flipping is valuable to the real estate industry and the community.  Home flippers revitalize run-down homes, and market appealing homes to home buyers.  In a low inventory housing market, home flips have become a significant percentage of home sales in a low inventory market.

House flipping data

quick sale
House flipping is a significant portion of home sales (Home Stats infographic from nar.realtor)

ATTOM Data Solutions (attomdata.com), the data solutions behind Realtytrac, recently released its Home Flipping Report for Q1 2018.  The report indicated that there were 48,457 U.S. homes that were flipped, which represented 6.9 percent of all home sales.  Although the number of homes flipped decreased 3 percent from last year, the percentage of flipped homes in the home sale inventory increased!  The number of flipped homes decreased to a two-year low, but the home flipping rate is the highest since 2012.  The average gross profit of $69,500 is at the highest point since ATTOM started collecting the data in 2000.

Given the stats and profits, it was just a matter of time for the mom and pop home flipping business to become corporatized.  Using the power of the internet and corporate financing, companies such as Opendoor, Offerpad, and recently Zillow have become players in house flipping business.  Whether corporate flippers are profitable or have a sustainable business model is for another column.  But, there is no doubt that home sellers are seduced by one-click instant offers and promises of a quick closing.

How real estate  investors operate

House flippers are known to buy foreclosures and other financially distressed properties.  However, these real estate investors also go after other properties too, as long as it’s financially feasible (it’s a business after all).  Other types of targeted homes include estate sales, divorce sales, long-time rentals, and outdated or obsolete homes.  So, if you haven’t already received a letter offering you a quick offer and fast closing, it’s just a matter of time.

For some home sellers, a quick sale to an investor is fitting.  The seller is disposing of a home that would otherwise continue to be a financial burden and deteriorate further.  However, many realize they can sell for more on the open market (MLS).

Is a quick sale to an investor all it’s cracked up to be?

If you’re thinking of selling your home (or even currently selling), you might be fascinated by the idea of a quick sale.  But for most, the dream of selling for a large sum and closing quickly is just a fantasy.  You should realize that home flipping is risky business, and the investors build their costs into their offer.  So, be prepared for a really low offer.  A typical investor offer is about 70 percent of the home’s value minus rehab, carrying, and marketing costs.

Before you sell to an investor, do your due diligence.  Compare multiple investor offers.  Verify that the investor is legitimate.  Be wary of investors who include extended contingencies.  Be aware that “wholesalers” will tie up your home while looking to sell their purchase contract to other investors.  Although most investors promise “cash” deals, the reality is that most investors actually borrow money.  It is not uncommon for investors to back out or default on a deal because their financing doesn’t come through.  Most important, have your attorney review any contract before you sign.

Also, talk to a Realtor.  You could possibly sell your home for more than the investor’s “instant” offer.  Marketing your home on the MLS at a price appropriate for its condition could net you more.

Original is located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2018/10/11/quick-sale-promises/

By Dan Krell.          Copyright © 2018.

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Winter home sale profits

winter home sale
Reasons to buy (infographic from keepingcurrentmatters.com)

If you are planning to sell next spring, don’t wait!  Consider a winter home sale.  A National Association of Realtors survey indicates that a surge of home sale inventory is on the horizon.  The NAR third quarter Housing Opportunities and Market Experience survey indicated that 77 percent of Americans believe it to be a good time to sell (Homeowners Ready to Sell in the Third Quarter of 2018, says Realtor Survey; September 25, 2018; nar.realtor)!  This happens to be a record high for the survey.  NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun believes that the strong sentiment is due to recent home price appreciation.  He stated:

“Though the vast majority of consumers believe home prices will continue to increase or hold steady, they understand the days of easy, fast gains could be coming to an end. Therefore, more are indicating that it is a good time to sell, which is a healthy shift in the market.

A winter home sale has less seller competition

The housing market conditions are such that we are on the verge of experiencing a déjà vu.  Two years ago, winter home sales were fueled by rising mortgage interest rates, low inventory and pent up demand.  As I predicted in a November 2016 column, rising interest rates and pent up demand were credited for the almost 10 percent jump in home sales by the end of January 2017!  The massive jump in home sales occurred during the deep winter, when existing home sale inventory dropped about one-third of the summer inventory.  Sellers who had a winter home sale during 2016-17 were greeted by eager home buyers and faced little competition.

Fast forward to 2018.  Yes, admittedly, home sales have slightly dropped off during summer.  But many are attributing this phenomenon to the lack of inventory.  Consider that Montgomery County existing single-family home sale inventory was almost 20 percent lower than that of the summer of 2016.  Although summer home sales dropped off, indicators point to a hot winter housing market.  Moderating home prices, combined with pent up buyer demand and a strong economy could make a winter home sale ideal.

It’s clear that home buyers facing rising interest rates have taken a pause.  But as rates approach 5 percent, positive economic sentiment is lessening the shock and many are planning to buy before rates creep higher.  Giving perspective to the mortgage rate hysteria, current mortgage rates are about the same as they were during 2014.  Additionally, the last time we saw mortgage rates above 5 percent was in 2010.  Rates exceeded 6 percent when home sales broke records during the market buildup of 2006.

Current sentiment is good for a winter home sale

Another indicator that a winter home sale may be primed is the most recent Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (No Thanks to Housing, Home Purchase Sentiment Edges Up; fanniemae.com; August 2018).  Home buyer sentiment increased the first time since May.  Economists attribute this uptick to a strong economy along with the awareness of the recent market slowdown.  The job and income related index components increased significantly indicating that buyers feel financially more secure with a home purchase.  There is also a belief that home prices may moderate due to the summer sales slump.

Winter home sales tend to have less competition and serious home buyers.  As I said in 2016, don’t wait until spring to sell your home!  If you wait until spring to list your home, you’ll be faced with a profusion of seller competition.

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2018/10/03/winter-home-sale-profits/

By Dan Krell.          Copyright © 2018.

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Fast home sale tips

fast home sale
Average Days on Market (infographic from keepingcurrentmatters.com)

Although the volume of home sales is below last year’s figures, most homes are still selling.  Of course, home sellers would prefer to have a fast home sale. When meeting with potential listing agents, home owners are typically overwhelmed by agents promoting their broker’s technology.  But the research is clear that it’s not technology that sells homes, but rather your MLS listing content and the audience that can sell your home fast.

Three years ago, I introduced cutting edge research by Allen, Cadena, Rutherford & Rutherford (Effects of real estate brokers’ marketing strategies: Public open houses, broker open houses, MLS virtual tours, and MLS photographs; The Journal of Real Estate Research; 2015; 37(3), 343-369).  Although the study focused on the listing agent’s motivations about spending money on promoting your home, it did shed light on the effectiveness of marketing staples such as: broker open houses, public open houses, MLS photos, and MLS virtual tours.  Although these tactics may not promote a fast home sale, the study revealed that all four methods used together positively influence the home sale price.

They found that having six or more MLS photos increases the probability of a selling your home, as well as positively influencing the sale price.  Having a virtual tour can decrease the home’s time on market as well as increasing the probability of selling.  Having open houses can help sell your home at a higher price, but can take longer to sell.  Contrary to conventional wisdom, having public open houses can increase your home’s time on market up to twenty-five days, while reducing the chances of it selling by 6.1 percent!  Broker open houses also adds to the time on market, however increases the likelihood of selling your home.  The conclusion was that all four tactics should be considered as a package if your goal is to get top dollar.  However, if your goal is a fast home sale, your focus should be elsewhere.

Do pictures help with a fast home sale? A number of studies found that MLS photos and virtual tours have positive effects to home sale price, but are conflicted with regard to time on market.  However, a study conducted by Benefield, Cain & Johnson (On the Relationship Between Property Price, Time-on-Market, and Photo Depictions in a Multiple Listing Service; The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics; 2011; 43(3), 401–422) indicated that having more photos of the home’s interior can increase the time on market.

A study published this year suggests that getting more real estate agents to view your MLS listing can sell your home faster.  Allen, Dare, & Lingxiao (MLS Information Sharing Intensity and Housing Market Outcomes; The Journal of Real Estate Finance & Economics; 2018; 57(2), 297-313) found that just increasing the MLS listing view by one unit can increase the probability of selling your home by 5.7 percent, increase the sale price by 0.2 percent, and reduce time on market by 1.6 days.

A fast home sale

So, what does all this research mean to you if you’re selling your home?  First, consider that your agent’s marketing strategy will certainly affect your home’s sale price and days on market.  While possibly helping to get a better sale price, the research has demonstrated that having a broad marketing plan could increase your home’s time on market.  To decrease the days on market and increase the probability of a sale, pay attention to the pictures and audience.  Make sure your agent places high-definition photos of your home in the MLS, but limiting shots to the most relevant.  Also, make sure your agent has a plan to get your MLS listing in front of other agents.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2018/08/16/fast-home-sale-tips/ ‎

By Dan Krell.
Copyright © 2018.

If you like this post, do not copy; instead please:
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Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism DetectorDisclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Buyer’s market home selling

buyer's market
Home Buyer’s market (infographic from nar.Realtor)

As winter approaches, many home sellers will be contemplating their next move after their homes have not sold.  It is likely that a volatile housing market awaits home sellers during the first half of 2018.  If you’re planning to list your home, you should have a selling plan that is able to adjust to market conditions quickly.  In other words, know about home selling in a buyer’s market.

The good news for home sellers is that this year’s home sale prices continue to climb, as the September 26th 20-city composite of the S&P Corelogic Case Shiller National Home Price Index (spindices.com) revealed.  The national index during July increased 5.8 percent compared to the same period last year, while the Washington DC area realized a 3.3 percent year over year gain.  However, there is expectation home sale prices may moderate or even slightly decrease in the first quarter of 2018 because of Fed policy and other market forces.

David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices stated in the release:

“While home prices continue to rise, other housing indicators may be leveling off. Sales of both new and existing homes have slipped since last March. The Builders Sentiment Index published by the National Association of Home Builders also leveled off after March. Automobiles are the second largest consumer purchase most people make after houses. Auto sales peaked last November and have been flat to slightly lower since. The housing market will face two contradicting challenges during the rest of 2017 and into 2018. First, rebuilding following hurricanes across Texas, Florida and other parts of the south will lead to further supply pressures. Second, the Fed’s recent move to shrink its balance sheet could push mortgage rates upward.”

Of course, home sale price indices only show sale prices for homes that sell.  And while home sale prices are increasing back to record levels in many areas, the volume of homes sold during 2017 so far is disappointing.  According to a September 20th NAR news release (realtor.nar), August’s existing home sales dropped 1.7 percent.  The Pending Home Sale Index for August dropped 2.6 percent, which made the NAR revise their 2017 home sale forecast to be “slightly below the pace set in 2016.”  Home sale volume in the first quarter of 2018 may also lag due to continued lack of inventory and anticipated increasing mortgage interest rates.  Lawrence Yun, cheif NAR economist, quipped

“The supply and affordability headwinds would have likely held sales growth just a tad above last year, but coupled with the temporary effects from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, sales in 2017 now appear will fall slightly below last year…The good news is that nearly all of the missed closings for the remainder of the year will likely show up in 2018, with existing sales forecast to rise 6.9 percent.”

Since these are August sales figures from the NAR, it is an unfortunate truth that August sales were not really affected by hurricanes. Mostly because hurricane Harvey hit Texas the very last days of August and Irma hit Florida in September. The main affects of the hurricanes disruption to existing home sales will be seen in September’s statistics. And “missed closings” is a euphemism for phantom closings, because they don’t really exist. So, with regard to sliding home sales, you should take Yun’s “headwinds” of supply and affordability very seriously.

Home selling in 2018, a buyer’s market?

Home sellers positioning themselves solely on this year’s home sale prices may be in for a rude awakening next year.  Sellers may feel as if the market is getting soft, however that may change the latter half of 2018 as home prices moderate.  Sellers will need to be reasonable.  They will need to have awareness of many factors besides home sale prices, including existing home sales volume and neighborhood sale trends.  Including home selling in a buyer’s market.

If you’re planning to sell your home, you will need to play to your audience (home buyers), and listen to their feedback.  Know how to sell in 2018.  Prepare your home before listing it in the MLS by repairing deferred maintenance and possibly making updates.  Home buyers have a track record of paying more for a home that has been totally renovated.  However, if you don’t completely repair and/or update your home, be prepared to lower your sale price.

Be flexible to quickly adjust to a seemingly buyer’s market. Feedback is highly important to get other’s perspectives about your home.  However, take Realtor feedback with a grain of salt.  Instead, have your agent collect buyer feedback at open houses. Home buyers tend to be more honest when giving feedback, and it can be especially helpful in a buyer’s market.  If the consensus is that the price is too high, the price may actually be too high.  If buyers are turned off by the condition and/or curb appeal of the home, consider making repairs or lowering price to reflect the condition.  If they are focused on your décor, consider hiring a professional stager to make the home more appealing.

Rather than a soft market, we are experiencing the struggle for a balanced market due to an inventory shortage and sharply decreasing affordability.  The last year and a half has been all about the home seller.  However, 2018 will be about the home buyer.  Home selling in a volatile or buyer’s market can be challenging. If you’re planning a sale, be realistic about your home’s condition and value. Over pricing your home from the start can make your home languish on the market, which could get you a much lower price if it sells.

By Dan Krell
Copyright© 2017

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2017/10/08/buyers-market-home-selling/

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.