Housing Market Archives - Page 16 of 26 - Real Estate News and Commentary

May 28, 2014August 8, 2019

Luxury home sales outpace mid-low tier sales

What seemed like the breakout year in real estate may turn into a hard act to follow. Although the National Association of Realtors® May 22^nd news release made headline news by skillfully pointing out that April existing home sales increased 1.3% from March; April’s sales data were 6.8% lower than last April. Much like the assertion to “Keep Calm and Carry On,” the spin on data may bean attempt to motivate home buyers and sellers.

The Greater Capital Association of Realtors® home sale statistics were consistent with NAR’s, such that Montgomery County MD single family home sales decreased about 8.2% in April compared to the same time in 2013. Looking deeper, the numbers reveal a similar scenario that played out in 2011 when a bifurcated market emerged between upper bracket and middle to low bracket homes. Sales of upper bracket homes are doing very well this year, while moderate to lower bracket homes sales are decreasing compared to last year. And much like 2011 when luxury home sales hit record prices (when DC’s Evermay and Halcyon House sold); 2014 is also a year of record luxury home sales (LA’s Fleur-de-Lys sold for $102M, CT’s Copper Beech Farm sold for $120M, and a NY mansion sold for $147M; each sale successively breaking the record for most expensive residential US home during a 5 week duration!). Consistent with this theme: cash sales are increasing this year, while first time home buyers are decreasing.

While the housing market may be shaping up to be similar to that of 2011, the reasons for a similar profile are different. We were looking for the market bottom during 2011, as well as assimilating an unprecedented number of distressed properties. However, even though distressed sales are rapidly decreasing; 2014 was supposed to be an extension of last year’s increased sales activity.

What we may be experiencing is the flip side to the housing crisis, as described by Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac Vice President in his May 19^thblog post (Nearly One-Third of Americans Live in Counties Where One in Five Homeowners is Underwater: Heat Map; RealtyTrac.com). Blomquist characterized the lack of participation in today’s market as being from the unusually high number of home owners with high loan balances on their home, including the many whose mortgages are underwater. This lack of participation is much like the many homes taken out of the market because of the foreclosure crisis during the downturn. He stated that the “normal flow [of move-up buyers] is being disrupted by homeowners with negative equity who are holding back from becoming move-up buyers, which in turn is impacting the availability of inventory downstream for first-time homebuyers.” According to RealtyTrac, those who are “seriously underwater” (125% or higher of loan balance to home value) account for 11% of Montgomery County MD home owners, while the county average loan balance to home value is about 79%.

The idea of the inactive move-up buyer is not new. In fact it seems to be that move-up buyers were lacking after other deep recessions; the August 17, 1985 article published in the Chicago Tribune titled, “Move-up Buyer Provides The Base For A Recovering Housing Market” is a testimony for such behavior. The timing for the move-up buyer is likely correlated to the time necessary to either recover lost equity; or reach a comfort level for the net amount gained in their home sale.

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By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2014

Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

May 15, 2014November 23, 2021

Picky home buyers and real estate slowdown

Why would a major real estate industry player predict a slowdown in home sales? The L.A. Times reported on May 5^th (Real estate giant predicts slow home sales for months to come) that Realogy Holdings Corp, the parent company of Coldwell Banker, Century 21 and Sotheby’s, claims that a slowdown in mid and low bracket homes could hurt the brokerage business and could prove to be a difficult 2014.

Meanwhile, a recent “Real-Time Seller Survey” conducted by Redfin (refin.com) indicated that 52.4% of home sellers were confident about selling their homes; however 40.9% of sellers were concerned about affording their next home. This may be why 40.3% of those surveyed planned to price their home above market value – maybe not the best strategy. The May 8^th Business Wire article (Redfin survey: 40% of home sellers plan to price higher than market value) quoted Redfin agent Paul Reid as saying; “Buyers this year are far less tolerant of overpricing, and homes that aren’t priced appropriately are likely to sit on the market until the seller is forced to reduce the price … Buyers often interpret a price drop as a sign there is something wrong with the home, leading some to negotiate even more aggressively or lose interest altogether.”

Economics aside, some experts say that a slowdown is in part due to institutional investors having all but left the market as distressed properties are decreasingly a part of the housing landscape; and the housing market is once again reliant on the owner occupant home buyer – who is often characterized as “picky.”

A lot has been said about “picky home buyers” since 2008, and the fact is that home buyers have not changed much – indeed, they may even be pickier today. It could be that the lessons of the financial crisis are still fresh in their minds; home buyers as group seem to be a hardy and savvy group. 2008 was a transition year, as home buyers shirked distressed properties for homes that exuded value. “Cheap” did not necessarily mean the home was a bargain to those who planned to be owner-occupants. Many home buyers were turned off to short sales and foreclosures, not just because of the process but because of the realization that the combined cost of the home purchase with repairs often exceeded the price of a re-sale that was in move-in condition.

Even though there is a perceived dearth of available homes for sale today, doesn’t mean that home buyers will pony up for an overpriced home. Home buyers are typically looking for a combination of location, quality, and value. According to Lyn Underwood (Home buyer turn-ons and turn-offs; McClatchy-Tribune Business News. April 26, 2014), home buyers are attracted to homes for a number of reasons; some of the top home characteristics include an updated kitchen with stone counters and maple cabinets; an open floor plan; new or refurbished wood floors; and flexible spaces (rooms that can be used for a number of uses).

If you’re selling this spring, don’t take home buyers for granted: don’t over price your home; and stay away from cheap renovations meant to look expensive (buyers are turned off by poor workmanship, sloppy installation, or inferior materials); and keep your home neat and tidy when showing. Your listing agent can provide guidance on preparing and pricing your home to sell in today’s market.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2014/05/15/picky-home-buyers-and-real-estate-slowdown/

Dan Krell ©
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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. This article was originally published the week of May 12, 2014 (Montgomery County Sentinel). Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © Dan Krell.

April 11, 2014July 3, 2019

Housing recovery is cliché

The word “recovery” has been used a lot over the last five years. So much so, it seems as if the term is automatically associated with anything written about real estate and housing. But, maybe it’s time for a shift in our perception and expectations.

If you look up the definition of recovery, you might find: “re·cov·ery – noun \ri-ˈkə-və-rē,\ : the act or process of returning to a normal state (after a period of difficulty).” It might make sense to refer to the housing market as still recovering, and in the process of returning to normal; but then again, who’s to say that the home price and market activity peaks realized during 2005 – 2006 was normal?

A number of research papers (such as Reinhart & Rogoff’s The Aftermath of Financial Crises) were produced to discuss how the recovery from the Great Recession would take shape. Although there is not a clear consensus, many concluded that a recovery after a financial crisis is much longer in duration than recoveries from non-crisis recessions. However, some claim that may not be the case because the comparisons to other financial crises around the globe are not analogous the U.S. financial system.

Regardless, maybe the use of the term “recovery” is, after five years, cliché. Niraj Chokshi seemed to allude to this in his November 2013 article on Washingtonpost.com, “What housing recovery? Home values and ownership are down post-recession.” Chokshi pointed out that home ownership and home values have not even recovered to the levels of the three years during the recession (2007-2009).

But then again, it could be that there is a journalistic license to use “recovery” when referring to housing; because there is an expectation for the real estate market to return to the peaks it experienced in the last decade. An April 7^th National Association of Home Builders (nahb.org) press release of the NAHB/First American Leading Markets Index was titled, “Latest NAHB Index Reading Shows Recovery Continues to Spread;” highlighted that there are 59 of 350 metro areas that “returned to or exceeded” their normal market levels. However, “market levels” are based on a metro area’s employment, home prices, and single family home permits (it is unclear if the labor participation rate, which is the labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population, is included in the employment data).

Talking about a recovery is no longer acceptable for home buyers and sellers planning their futures; rather it is more appropriate to again talk about relative market conditions. Considering that references to a recovery that is extending into a fifth year seems distant and confusing; the dramatic changes that the industry underwent after the recession makes it almost inconceivable for the marketplace to return to the exact state that existed prior to 2007. Relative market conditions are more meaningful to home buyers and sellers, specifically when they are deciding listing and offer prices.

Although the National Association of Reltors® Existing Home-Sales stats are due out April 22nd, and Pending Home Sales Index due April 28th; Wells Fargo Housing Chartbook: March 2014 (April 9, 2014) states, “Although we still see conditions improving in 2014 and 2015, the road back to normal will, in all likelihood, remain a long one…” and outlines a “Brave New Housing World.”

With that in mind, a look at local market conditions; March 2014 year-over-year Montgomery County MD home sale statistics for single family homes as reported by the Greater Capital Association of Realtors® (gcaar.com) indicated: total active listings increased 27.5%; contracts (e.g., pending sales) decreased 7.4%; and settlements (e.g., sales) decreased 12.6%. Additionally, the March 2014 county average single family home sale price of $562,157 is less than the county average SFH price of $573,281 reported for March 2013.

by Dan Krell
©2014

March 26, 2014July 3, 2019

Real estate, climate change, and data-porn

The National Association of Realtors® (realtor.org) March 20^th news release reported that February home sales remained subdued because of rising home prices and severe winter weather. The decline in existing home sales was just 0.4% from January, but was 7.1% lower than last February’s figures. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun stated that home sales declines were due to “weather disruptions, limited inventory, increasingly restrictive mortgage underwriting, and decreasing housing affordability.” And although it may sound bad, Yun actually has a rosy outlook saying, “…Some transactions are simply being delayed, so there should be some improvement in the months ahead. With an expected pickup in job creation, home sales should trend up modestly over the course of the year.”

So, if a snow filled and cold February is to blame for poor home sales, was Snowmagedden and Snowzilla the reason for increased home sales during February 2010? Of course not. And although home sales increased 5.1% year-over-year here in Montgomery County MD during February 2010, it was mostly due to increased home buyer demand that some speculate was due in part to the availability of first time home buyer tax credits. Additionally, RealtorMag reported that Southern California December home sales dropped about 21% month-over-month, and were down about 9% in compared to the same period in 2012.

As home sales are trending lower, it’s reasonable to look for reasons why demand is soft; but can weather be the main reason to keep potential home buyers at home? Probably not. Consumer demand is a robust force that is multifaceted, and can even prevail over seemingly difficult circumstances. Consumer demand can even trump weather, as was the case during the winter of 2010.

Consumer demand can even be resilient in the face of the speculative effects of global warming. A November 2013 RealtyToday article (The Looming Global Warming Catastrophe and its Effect on Real Estate; realtytoday.com) discusses how home buyer demand for coastal property has remained strong even as increased claims that climate change will make these areas uninhabitable.

Housing data cause and effect is only conjecture unless it is directly observed. To make sense of the “data-porn” that is excessively presented in the media, often without proper or erroneous explanation; economic writer Ben Casselman offers three rules to figure out what the media is saying (Three Rules to Make Sure Economic Data Aren’t Bunk; fivethirtyeight.com): Question the data; Know what is measured; and Look outside the data. Casselman states, “The first two rules have to do with questioning the numbers — what they’re measuring, how they’re measuring it, and how reliable those measurements are. But when a claim passes both those tests, it’s worth looking beyond the data for confirmation.”

Keeping these rules in mind, could the winter slowdown be the result of cold weather, or is it something else? Sure, cold weather may have marginal effects on home buyer behavior and demand; however, weather does not typically affect extended periods of consumer behavior unless weather events are catastrophic. The current data may be indicative of a housing market that is returning to the distinct seasonal activity that we have been used to for many years prior to the “go-go” market and subsequent recovery years.

However, other factors referenced by Dr. Yun, such as increased home prices and tougher mortgage standards, are more likely to be the reasons for subdued home sales. And as the year progresses, these factors may emerge to be significant issues for home buyers.

by Dan Krell
© 2014

March 7, 2014November 23, 2021

How many more years for housing recovery?

The “long slog” housing recovery prediction appears to be relevant as a recent study published by the Demand Institute (DI) now estimates that the recovery may take several more years. DI, a non-profit that studies consumer demand, suggests that home values may not rebound until 2018.

The DI study was reported by Realtor Magazine (Uneven Recovery to Continue for 5 Years; March 03, 2014) to be comprehensive and include 2,200 cities across the country and 10,000 interviews. Overall, the report concludes that the recent sharp increase in home prices was mostly due to real estate investors who purchased distressed properties. Now that distressed home sales are declining, values are not expected to increase as precipitously; the continued housing recovery is expected to be driven by new household formation.

The study reported the appreciation rate of the 50 largest metro areas in the country through 2018; home prices are estimated to appreciate about 2.1% annually. However, the top five appreciating cities will average an overall increase of 32% through the recovery; while the bottom five will only average about 11% (Washington DC is listed among the bottom five). Cities that experienced the highest appreciation and subsequently sharpest depreciation in home prices will likely have the longest and protracted recovery, and yet may only recover a fraction of the peak home values by 2018.

Not highlighted, and not yet expected to be an impact on the housing recovery, is the move-up home buyer. The typical move-up home buyer is sometimes characterized as a home owner who decides they need more space, which results in the sale of their smaller home and the purchase of a larger home. Similar to previous recessionary periods and real estate down markets, the move- up home buyer was the missing piece to a housing recovery; the move-up home buyer provides much of the housing inventory that first time home buyers seek. However, it seems as if psychological barriers hold back many move-up buyers today as it did in past recoveries. During the current housing recovery, many potential move-up buyers have remained in their homes. And until the move-up home buyer presence is felt in the marketplace, we may yet to endure a few more years of “recovery.”

Much like the DI study, there has been a lot of discussion and debate about the effects (on housing) of the lack of housing formation during the recession and in the subsequent recovery. Andrew Paciorek, an economist at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, described household formation during a presentation given at the Atlanta Fed’s Perspectives on Real Estate speaker series (June 2013); “Think of the unemployed or underemployed college graduates living in their parents’ basements instead of renting or buying their own place. When a person establishes a residence, whether that’s an apartment or a house or another dwelling, that person is forming a household. Mainly because of a weak labor market that held down incomes, the rate of household formation cratered during the recession and subsequent recovery…”

To give perspective to the issue, the rate of decrease of household formation during the great recession was significant (an 800,000 per year decrease compared to the previous seven years). Additionally, household formation between 2007 and 2011 was at the lowest level since World War II, and was 59% below the 2000 to 2006 average. Most significantly: during 2012, 45% of 18 to 30 year olds lived with older family members; compared to 39% during 1990, and 35% during 1980. He described the household formation crash as an indirect contributor to declining home prices, which diminished household wealth linked to home values.

Although household formation continues to be a concern as the labor participation rate has decreased, Paciorek points to improvements in the job market as the spark to increasing household formation. He forecasts that household formation should increase to 1.6 million over the next several years, and could possibly exceed the pre-recession average due to pent up demand of those who waited to form a household during the recession. However, a disclaimer was provided saying his forecast is “based on assumptions that could prove overly optimistic;” and has “lots of caveats and lots of uncertainty” – much like the housing recovery.

by Dan Krell
Copyright © 2014