market conditions Archives - Real Estate News and Commentary

July 18, 2025July 18, 2025

Market Slowing Down – What this means

Is the Housing Market Slowing Down? What That Means for You

The red flags are waving and there’s whispers of on the streets: the housing market may be cooling. After years of dizzying climbs, bidding wars, and sight-unseen offers, the pace is finally easing. But is this truly a slowdown, a healthy reset, or just a pause?

Signs of a Changing Housing Market

In many parts of the country, homes are taking longer to sell. Days on market are ticking up, price cuts are becoming more common, and buyers, once frantic, are now cautious, weighing rising mortgage costs against the fear of overpaying.

But it’s important to see this in context. After the frenzied, almost feverish market of the past few years, what we’re witnessing might simply be a return to normal. A market slowing down, where buyers can pause to breathe, sellers may need to be realistic, and negotiation, once a lost art, becomes relevant again.

What This Means for Buyers

If you’re a buyer who’s been sidelined by steep prices and stiff competition, this shift could finally open the door. You may see fewer bidding wars and more opportunities to inspect, deliberate, and perhaps even negotiate on price or repairs. Still, with rates holding steady at higher levels, smart budgeting remains crucial.

What This Means for Sellers

For sellers, it’s a gentle reminder that strategy matters. Pricing your home based on hopeful headlines from last year may lead to longer waits and inevitable reductions. The silver lining? Serious buyers are still out there. Homes that show well and are priced right continue to move, just perhaps not in a weekend.

A Balanced Perspective

Markets evolve and are cyclical. What matters most is having a plan tailored to today’s conditions, not last year’s headlines. Whether buying or selling, working with an agent who understands these subtle shifts can make all the difference, helping you navigate this nuanced new landscape with confidence.

Thinking of making a move? Have a meaningful conversation with your agent about your local market, and what this “slowdown” really means for you.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2025

Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

What’s your home worth?

May 20, 2025May 20, 2025

A Shifting Landscape

April 2025 Housing Market Report: A Shifting Landscape in Maryland-DC

The April 2025 housing market across the Maryland and DC Metro region paints a portrait of contradiction: inventory surged, buyer activity softened, and yet home prices pressed higher into record territory. This complex dynamic reflects a shifting landscape influenced by economic turbulence, workforce reductions, and a widespread push for return-to-office policies.

As the spring market unfolds, buyers and sellers find themselves navigating unfamiliar territory, where more choices and longer market times coexist with rising prices and regional volatility.

Inventory Surge: A Turning Point for Supply

The most defining trend of April was a nearly 50% year-over-year increase in active listings. With many more homes on the market by month’s end, buyers suddenly have options that were virtually nonexistent in the hyper-competitive climate of recent years. This expansion of supply is largely attributed to broader economic pressures and job-related relocations.

This dramatic uptick in inventory has begun to reshape the negotiation landscape, subtly shifting leverage away from sellers,though not enough to bring prices down just yet.

Persistent Caution

Despite the newfound abundance of homes, buyer enthusiasm has tempered. New pending sales were down 6.6% from April 2024, revealing that elevated mortgage rates, job insecurity, and broader market hesitancy are suppressing demand.

Prices Press Higher

In what may seem counterintuitive, median home prices hit a new record in April. The regional median reached $655,215,up 2.4% year-over-year,underscoring how limited housing availability in prior years continues to ripple through pricing.

This resilience signals that while demand has softened, sellers are still commanding strong prices,especially in premium or well-located properties.

Time on Market & Months of Supply: A Market in Transition

Homes are lingering slightly longer: the median days on market ticked up by 1 day overall, with condos seeing the most pronounced slowdown (+4 days). Correspondingly, months of supply increased to 2.36, up 0.74 months year-over-year,signaling movement toward a more balanced market.

While these numbers remain seller-friendly by historical standards, they mark a shift from the frantic pace of the past three years.

What It All Means

The April 2025 data reflects a housing market rebalancing rather than retreating. Inventory is rising, giving buyers breathing room. Prices remain firm, sustained by years of under-supply and cautious sellers. And while economic factors like job security and interest rates weigh heavily, they haven’t yet tipped the scales into a buyer’s market.

Looking Ahead: What to Watch

As we move deeper into the spring and summer selling seasons, several key questions will shape the trajectory of the market:

Will mortgage rates drop meaningfully enough to stimulate buyer demand?
Will the surge in inventory stabilize or continue to grow?
How will job market uncertainty,especially in government-heavy areas,affect buyer behavior?

One thing is clear: in 2025, the Maryland-DC Metro housing market is no longer a sprint. It’s a shifting landscape that requires a strategic game; where timing, property type, and location matter more than ever.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2025

Homes for sale.

December 6, 2022December 6, 2022

What’s driving the housing market?

The November 30^th National Association of Realtors press release indicated that the Pending Home Sale Index receded 4.6 percent in October from the previous month. This is the fifth straight month of declines for the forward looking indicator. The index has declined about 37 percent from the same time last year. What is currently driving the housing market?

Many are blaming mortgage interest rates for the sharp declines. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated, “October was a difficult month for home buyers as they faced 20-year-high mortgage rates…The upcoming months should see a return of buyers, as mortgage rates appear to have already peaked and have been coming down since mid-November.”

Declining Existing home sales

As for existing home sale stats, the NAR’s November 18^th press release indicated that existing home sales declined for the ninth straight month. Sales slipped 5.9 percent from the previous month, and dropped 28.4 percent from the same time last year.

Increasing home prices

Despite, the slipping sales, median home prices continue to increase. The median existing home sale price increased 6.6% from the same time last year. Although the hedge funds and main stream media talk about huge home price declines in 2023, the reality is that most experts expect home prices to maintain if not increase. If the housing market were really in trouble, existing home sale prices would have already started to recede, but home sale prices actually increased! This is probably why the FHFA announced in a November 29^th press release that conforming loan limits are increasing in high price areas from $647,200 to $726,200.

Inflation and the economy are on everyone’s mind. Zillow chief economist Skylar Olsen stated in a December 1^st press release that the economy and affordability will drive the housing market in 2023. “Affordability is going to be the biggest factor in housing for 2023, but there’s room for optimism on that front if mortgage rates recede.”

Lack of home sale inventory is currently driving the housing market

The reason for declining home sales and increasing home prices, that no one is really talking about, is the existing home sale inventory. The NAR reported that home sale inventory continues to decline. The current level of inventory is equivalent to 3.3. month’s supply, which is indicative of a sellers’ market.

On the surface, home sale stats may seem disastrous. However, keeping perspective, remember that the current housing market is being compared to the previous year of record setting home prices and sales. Also keep in mind that although home sales have slipped, home prices continue to increase. Mortgage rates seemed to have plateaued. However, unless existing home sale inventory increases significantly, expect subdued existing home sales and higher home sale prices.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2022

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July 1, 2022July 1, 2022

Local housing market changing

Lately, the housing market is definitely making noise and grabbing everyone’s attention, and not in a good way. However, we won’t actually know how it plays out until it’s over. As the idiom says “hindsight is 20/20.” Nevertheless, if you’re currently in the market to sell or buy a home, pay attention to current local housing market conditions as they are critical to your decision making.

Here we go…

Changing housing market — More home are being listed for sale

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (spglobal.com) reported in a June 28 press release that average April 2022 home prices increased 20.4 percent from April 2021. Tampa, Miami, and Phoenix led metro areas with 35.8 percent, 33.3 percent and 31.3 percent gains respectively.

We won’t really know if rising interest rates have any effect on home prices for several months. Home pricing and sales data is reported in hindsight (data is reported three to four months behind). The Case-Shiller release points out that mortgage rates just began to increase when these stats were being compiled (April). However, the recent S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index is already showing home price moderation (even before rising mortgage rates). The Year-to Date S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the US only shows an increase of 7.95 percent, while the 3-month index increased 6.66 percent and 1-month only increased 2.08 percent.

Rising mortgage interest rates is only part of the economic story that is developing. It was likely that home prices were already moderating as a reaction to the year and a half of sharp increases. As I wrote last week, we are in the beginning of the shifting housing cycle. Mixing in other economic factors, such as mortgage rates etc., can either make the housing market more sever or temperate. And as I mentioned, we won’t know for sure until it has happened.

Bottom line

If you’re currently in the market to buy and/or sell a home, focus on the short-term local trends. Speculation of future national home prices and home sales may be interesting, however is meaningless in the here and now. You should hire a seasoned professional to help understand your neighborhood’s trend, as well as being informed about your potential competition and the local housing market inventory.

If you’re buying a home, work with a seasoned real estate agent who can provide valid comps and analysis before you make an offer. Also, consider having a thorough home inspection. In the last year and half, home buyers felt forced to forgo the inspection to make their offer competitive. However, in the changing market, home inspections will return.

If you’re selling a home, be aware that home pricing strategies that were lucrative last year won’t work to your advantage this year. It’s nice to think that your home could sell for a peak price much like other neighborhood homes that sold twelve to twenty-four months ago. However, in a changing market, overpricing your home sale could be counterproductive, driving potential home buyers to competing homes.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2022

June 24, 2022June 24, 2022

Housing Market Pause, Slowdown, or Collapse?

Is the housing market in a pause, going into a slowdown, or worse – headed for a collapse? Looking back to an article I wrote an article in the summer of 2018 asking the same question, we were at a similar point then and asking the same questions. Just like today, the summer of 2018 saw decreasing home sales after a sellers’ and sharply rising home sale prices. Instead of being in full swing, the housing market of the summer of 2018 was cooling down.

During that time, it was common place to hear about the impending doom and gloom in a housing collapse from the media. In hindsight, what occurred that summer was a normal reaction to an overheated market where stressed home buyers basically took a break. Even with the short pause, the housing remained an active and viable aspect of the US economy.

Housing, like other facets of the economy, go through cycles of boom and bust. Most are familiar with the extreme boom and bust cycles, such as what occurred during 2005-2007. However, many are unfamiliar with the concept of the mini-cycle. The mini cycle is a period of short-term growth and slowdown, modulating to maintain a relative balance. Instead going through a protracted cycle of expansion, hyper-supply, and recession, the housing market could be correcting itself via mini cycles.

Prior to the lockdowns of 2020, the housing market was in the process of correcting itself from sharp home price increases during a hot 2017-2018 market. At that time, home sale inventory was already at historic lows (which began in 2013). As you can understand, the lockdowns further exacerbated the home sale inventory shortage and pushing the housing market and home buyers into an unprecedented situation. The double-digit multiple offers and six-figure escalations pushed home buyers to the edge, exhausting and discouraging many.

After a year and a half of sensational activity and home price gains, it’s not unthinkable that home sales would correct itself. As reported in the June 21^st National Association of Realtors press release (https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-fell-3-4-in-may-median-sales-price-surpasses-400000-for-the-first-time), May 2022 home sales decreased 3.4 percent from April, and decreased 8.6 percent from May 2021. Home sale inventory continues to increase, and was reported to be about 2.6 months of supply, which gives home buyers more opportunities.

Home prices, on the other hand, continue to increase. As reported in the NAR press release, median home prices are 14.8 percent higher than a year ago! The $407,600 median home sale price is the first time the median sale price exceeded $400,000.

Of course, housing is also affected by outside economic factors, which are concerning to everyone. If you are in the market to buy or sell a home, look at the facts and make decisions that make sense for your situation. Finally, work with a seasoned professional to assist you to understand and navigate your local market.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2022