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December 8, 2016July 4, 2019

Real estate fakery

“Fake news” is the cause du-jour that has energized many into a movement to stop the spreading of falsehoods. Ironically, the crusaders who point their finger at alleged sources of fake news may also be guilty of promoting it; Fake news accusations are sometimes used to promote misinformation and half-truths. Unfortunately, fake news has become a meme that is becoming trite and meaningless. The promotion of fake news may be found throughout history, but real estate fakery is well established in the industry.

Fake real estate news isn’t always a manufactured story. It is more often a story that is misleading. When reporting real estate, the media typically sensationalizes a headline without reporting all the facts, which can make you draw inaccurate conclusions. An example of this is when the local media report on rising national average home prices, giving the false impression that the local market is expanding at the same pace. This is a mischaracterization of the local market because the regional data is often much different from the national trends.

The National Association of Realtors® is sometimes guilty of real estate fakery too by stating conjecture as fact when explaining market deviations. An example of this is when existing home sales declined about seven percent during February 2014 (March 20, 2014; nar.realtor). It was explained away because of the poor weather and snow that occurred that month. However, if snow is causal to poor winter home sales; then why was there a five percent increase in Montgomery County Home Sales during February of 2010 – when Snowmageddon and Snowzilla occurred? From “Real Estate, Climate Change, and Data-Porn” :

The National Association of Realtors® (realtor.org) March 20^th news release reported that February home sales remained subdued because of rising home prices and severe winter weather. The decline in existing home sales was just 0.4% from January, but was 7.1% lower than last February’s figures. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun stated that home sales declines were due to “weather disruptions, limited inventory, increasingly restrictive mortgage underwriting, and decreasing housing affordability.” And although it may sound bad, Yun actually has a rosy outlook saying, “…Some transactions are simply being delayed, so there should be some improvement in the months ahead. With an expected pickup in job creation, home sales should trend up modestly over the course of the year.”
So, if a snow filled and cold February is to blame for poor home sales, was Snowmagedden and Snowzilla the reason for increased home sales during February 2010? Of course not. And although home sales increased 5.1% year-over-year here in Montgomery County MD during February 2010, it was mostly due to increased home buyer demand that some speculate was due in part to the availability of first time home buyer tax credits.
Housing data cause and effect is only conjecture unless it is directly observed. To make sense of the “data-porn” that is excessively presented in the media, often without proper or erroneous explanation; economic writer Ben Casselman offers three rules to figure out what the media is saying (Three Rules to Make Sure Economic Data Aren’t Bunk; fivethirtyeight.com): Question the data; Know what is measured; and Look outside the data. Casselman states, “The first two rules have to do with questioning the numbers — what they’re measuring, how they’re measuring it, and how reliable those measurements are. But when a claim passes both those tests, it’s worth looking beyond the data for confirmation.”
Consumers also perpetuate fake real estate news by exaggerating their (good and bad) experiences, usually offering unsolicited advice or posting to the internet (to real estate forums and websites). Facts are often distorted or misrepresented about specific real estate situations, such as divorce, short sales, and foreclosure. Unfortunately, people in similar situations who are looking for answers are at their most vulnerable; and can take the “advice” as gospel, seeking a similar outcome with their transaction.

More real estate fakery on the internet comes in the form of fake reviews. Fake reviews has been an ongoing issue for a number of years. And although the online real estate portals have claimed to use artificial intelligence and other means to thwart the trend, fake reviews and those who provide them have adapted and have become more sophisticated such that it is increasingly difficult to spot. Even back in 2011, Cornell researchers claimed that detection of fake reviews is “well beyond the capability of human judges” (Proceedings of the 49th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics, pages 309–319).

From “Are internet Realtor® reviews real or fake?“:

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) code of ethics prohibits deceptive practices, which includes posting or encouraging fake reviews. However, Lani Rosales of AGBeat (Sketchy new trend – hiring fake online review writers) argues that there has always been an element posting fake Realtor® reviews and testimonials.

Scammers and fraudsters also use fake real estate news to their advantage. Fake real estate listings have been an issue since the inception of the internet. Fraudsters publish pictures and information from a prior sale or rental, or may lift the photos and information from a legitimate listing being marketed by an agent. The con is to have the consumer send money, often before the home can be seen. Craigslist warns consumers: “Avoid scams, deal locally! DO NOT wire funds (e.g. Western Union), or buy/rent sight unseen.”

Real estate agents are also culpable for spreading fake news, which may be why agents are often characterized as being fake or phony sales people who will bend the truth to make a sale. Of course there are some in the industry who fit the stereotype, but many are “straight shooters.” Unfortunately, it is common for agents to use puffery to make a home seem nicer (until you visit it and realize the “rustic charmer” is a neglected home). Not as often, agents may create a history for the home that is not real to promote a lifestyle or even hide relevant defects.

When it comes to real estate news, advice, and listings – don’t take anything for granted. Don’t fall prey to real estate fakery – know the source, and verify the information with a local real estate professional or your real estate agent.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2016

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

December 1, 2016January 28, 2020

Home prices surprise

Back in January, I told you that the housing market of 2016 would be about home prices.

2016 housing market hinges on home prices.

A home selling season has not been anticipated so much by home sellers since 2013. It’s not that 2015 was a bad year for housing, because it wasn’t. It’s that many home owners who have been wanting to sell since 2010 (some because of being underwater) may be in position to make the long awaited move.

And indeed, national home sale prices have appreciated considerably through the year. But who would have thought that home prices would once again approach the level reached during the peak market of 2006?

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (spindices.com) reported in July that the index was within 3 percent of peak, with another month of 5 percent appreciation. And surprise! This week’s release of home price data indicated that the September’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index exceeded the index that was recorded during the peak market that occurred July 2006! September’s year-over-year gains were due to a 5.5 percent gain to the National Index, while the 20-City composite remained unchanged at a 5.1 percent.

Of course, regional and local differences explain why actual home prices in many areas don’t seem as high as they were during the peak. Consider that Seattle, Portland, and Denver reported the highest annual home price gains with 11 percent, 10.9 percent, and 8.7 percent respectively. The Washington DC region realized a 2.7 percent increase; which is well below the top gainers, as well as below the national average. Although the housing markets in Miami, Tampa, Phoenix and Las Vegas experienced the most home price gains during the peak; current home prices in those cities “remain well below their all-time highs.”

Analysis provided in the November 29th press release states:

“The new peak set by the S&P Case-Shiller CoreLogic National Index will be seen as marking a shift from the housing recovery to the hoped-for start of a new advance” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “While seven of the 20 cities previously reached new post-recession peaks, those that experienced the biggest booms — Miami, Tampa, Phoenix and Las Vegas — remain well below their all-time highs. Other housing indicators are also giving positive signals: sales of existing and new homes are rising and housing starts at an annual rate of 1.3 million units are at a post-recession peak.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (fhfa.gov) also reported continued home price gains last week. The FHFA Home Price Index (HPI) increased 6.1 percent year-over-year. The November 23^rd press release reported that home prices increased in 49 states during the third quarter of 2016 compared to the same period last year. However, “Delaware and the District of Columbia were the only areas not to see price increases.”

Indications of a strengthening housing market have been reported for many months. Last year, the National Association of Realtors® (realtor.org) reported that the national median home sale price recorded for June 2015 ($236,400) surpassed the peak national median home sale price established during July 2006 ($230,400).

And if that weren’t enough, existing home sales have also been expanding. The NAR reported last week that existing home sales increased during October. The two-month consecutive increase doesn’t only outpace June’s peak, but is now the “highest annualized pace in nearly a decade.”

Existing-home sales ascended in October for the second straight month and eclipsed June’s cyclical sales peak to become the highest annualized pace in nearly a decade, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions saw monthly and annual sales increases in October.

Termed an “autumn revival,” Lawrence Yun NAR chief economist, stated that “October’s strong sales gain was widespread throughout the country and can be attributed to the release of the unrealized pent-up demand that held back many would-be buyers over the summer because of tight supply…Buyers are having more success lately despite low inventory and prices that continue to swiftly rise above incomes.”

As much as we would like home prices to significantly appreciate indefinitely, market forces and economic factors will intervene. Increasing interest rates is not only consistent with a growing economy, it will likely moderate home prices.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated in her November 17^th Congressional testimony regarding monetary policy:

At our meeting earlier this month, the Committee judged that the case for an increase in the target range had continued to strengthen and that such an increase could well become appropriate relatively soon if incoming data provide some further evidence of continued progress toward the Committee’s objectives. This judgment recognized that progress in the labor market has continued and that economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. And inflation, while still below the Committee’s 2 percent objective, has increased somewhat since earlier this year. Furthermore, the Committee judged that near-term risks to the outlook were roughly balanced.

Yellen stated that “an increase could well become appropriate relatively soon.” Yellen referred to economic strengths as rationale, however analysis of new data should comport with the Open Market Committee’s objectives. Yellen stated that housing market strengths are favorable for an interest rate increase. Although new home construction has been “subdued,” the fundamentals of the housing market are complimentary to such a move.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2016/12/01/home-prices-surprise/

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November 22, 2016October 20, 2020

A hot winter housing market

Winter is not usually a time of year when you would think of selling your home. After all, everyone gets into holiday and hibernation mode. Between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day (during the winter housing market), home sale inventory is usually trimmed by an average of 50 percent and contract activity is significantly reduced.

But this winter will be different. Rising interest rates and pent up demand could make the housing market very active this winter.

Consider that mortgage interest rates are on their way up. Freddie Mac (freddiemac.com) reported last week about a mortgage interest “spike” that can get fence-sitters to jump into the winter housing market. The rate for the 30-year-fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.94 percent, which jumped from the prior week’s average of 3.57 percent. On the face of it, the increase doesn’t seem significant. But the difference is about $70 per month on a $300,000 mortgage.

Last week’s interest rate surge could be the beginning of interest rate increases we’ve been anticipating (for five years). Speculation is that the bond market is anticipating and pricing in a Fed interest rate hike at next month’s Open Market Committee meeting. Of course, the next sixty days could be a lead up to new mortgage rate expectations, which could exceed 4.5 percent by the end of next year.

Historically low interest rates for a 30-year-fixed-rate mortgage have become part of our lives. Upward movement will be met with hyperbole and excitement from the media, claiming reduced home sales and a faltering real estate market. However, let’s put it in perspective. Mortgage rates averaged above 4 percent throughout 2014. The last time we had an average mortgage rate above 5 percent was 2010. In fact, the average mortgage rate at the height of the go-go market during 2006 was above 6 percent.

What does it mean for you if you’re planning a sale? Don’t wait until spring! Consider selling during the winter housing market. You won’t have much competition; and serious home buyers, who are sensitive to interest rates, will be looking through the holidays and winter.

If you decide to sell during the holidays and the winter housing market, make sure your home is ready. Decluttering is the most important aspect of home preparation. However, winter decluttering may be more difficult because of the colder weather and our desire to slow down during these months. Besides our inclination to “nest,” it’s easy to accumulate items in the house that make us cozy and comfortable. But winter clutter can be minimized by organization and a daily straightening-up for incoming buyers.

Check your home’s systems. Have licensed professionals inspect your furnace and roof. Besides keeping the house warm and dry for buyers who visit, checking these systems can prevent surprises when a home inspection is performed.

After a weather event, clear your walkways and driveway of ice and snow. Besides making it easier for home buyers to visit your home, it lessens the possibility of someone falling and getting hurt.

If your home is vacant, have a licensed professional winterize it. Winterizing your home can reduce the risk of bursting pipes and damaging plumbing fixtures. If you are out of town, have a trusted person check on the home regularly (even if you are listed with a real estate agent). Your “stand-in” should also be available to take care of any house related issues that occur in your absence during the winter housing market.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2016

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November 17, 2016November 23, 2021

It’s Mr. Trump’s housing market now

Change is not always easy. Sometimes we choose to change and other times we are forced to change. The Great Recession forced massive change to many aspects of our lives – mostly financial. Many found themselves out of work because of the recession, and many home owners lost their homes to foreclosure; while the rest of us searched for ways to cope. It’s Mr. Trump’s housing market now.

As a result, the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act was quickly pieced together and signed into law in 2010. “Dodd-Frank”, contained over two-thousand pages of regulations and rules, many of which were to be created at a later time by many agencies and unelected bureaucrats. Dodd-Frank also created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which took over RESPA, lending and consumer finance markets enforcement responsibilities. The CFPB created the “Qualified Residential Mortgage” and “Know Before You Owe” rules that significantly impacted the mortgage and housing industries.

The purpose of Dodd-Frank and the CFPB was well intentioned as Congress sought a solution to prohibit future crises. In the uncertain financial atmosphere that ensued, consumers wanted accountability from Wall Street and mortgage lenders. While some continue to generally blame Wall Street and the mortgage industry for the financial crisis, the reality is that the dynamics that created the financial crises were complex. And one can surmise from the many hearings, books, dissertations, and working papers that the crux of the financial crisis was widespread fraud that took advantage of a hot real estate market and easy money.

Six years after Dodd-Frank, the rules and regulations keep coming. Writing for the US Chamber of Commerce’s “Above the Fold,” J.D. Harrison pointed out that Dodd-Frank has created over 27,000 new federal regulations by thirty-two federal agencies impacting many industries (Dodd-Frank’s Regulatory Nightmare in One Rather Mesmerizing Illustration; uschamber.com). Compared to the previous Wall Street reform in 2002, which had two agencies issuing regulations to only five industries. Harrison stated that the Sarbanes-Oxley Act “basically sought more corporate transparency and accountability.”

Many have associated Dodd-Frank with the ongoing slow economic recovery, citing increased consumer costs and restricted lending – which effects the housing market, home buyers and sellers.

An example of increasing consumer costs is the CFPB’s TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure. The Mortgage Bankers Association (mba.org) recently reported that compliance with TRID costs on average $210 per mortgage, some of which is recouped from the consumer. The rule is also responsible for “slower application to closing times.”

A recent appellate case highlighted some of these Dodd-Frank outcomes. The CFPB sought fines against a mortgage lender for their years of compliance with HUD’s interpretation of a rule; the fines were imposed retroactively for not complying with a new CFPB reinterpretation of the same rule. Additionally, the court focused on the CFPB’s unilateral ability to impose rules and fines without oversight.

It’s Mr. Trump’s housing market now.

Repeal and Replace is a talking point that is not exclusively for the Affordable Care Act. Shortly after Donald Trump’s election as the forty-fifth President of the United States, many industry insiders and pundits are already anticipating the future of Dodd-Frank and the CFPB. Mr. Trump’s plan for financial services is posted to the President-Elect’s site (greatagain.gov) stating: “The Dodd-Frank economy does not work for working people. Bureaucratic red tape and Washington mandates are not the answer. The Financial Services Policy Implementation team will be working to dismantle the Dodd-Frank Act and replace it with new policies to encourage economic growth and job creation.”

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November 11, 2016December 13, 2022

Realtors giving back

It was about one month ago when I received the call from a local public relations firm. The voice on the other end of the line wanted me to write a column about their real estate agent client. They wanted to draw attention to Realtors giving back, specifically to the fact that their client started a program where they will be donating a portion of their commission to a charity chosen by the home buyer or seller.

Although I was pressured to commit to write the piece as well as provide a publication date, it seemed (at least for the moment) that seeking publicity about one’s altruism was ironic. In the ensuing weeks, I received follow up calls to write the piece. But rather than saying “No,” I told them it would most likely be a piece that is generally about real estate agents’ charitability. After all, we’re headed into the holiday season, and the timing seems right about bringing attention to Realtors giving back.

Not to give the short shrift to the PR firm and their client, whose “Pay it Forward” initiative was announced in an October 19^th press release that their team of agents, processors and coordinators will donate a portion of each commission to a charity of their client’s choice. Although an amount or percentage to be donated was not specified in the press release that I received, they are committing a portion of every commission to charity throughout the year. The team’s plan of giving a portion of commission to charity is not their exclusive idea, nor is it a novel one; nonetheless, that real estate team deserves kudos for the move – welcome to the fold!

It should come as no surprise that real estate and charitable giving goes hand-in-hand. Nationwide, real estate companies, franchises, and agents have sought to give back to their respective communities. In 2007, Gerald Leonard, then owner of Coastal Elite Real Estate in San Clemente CA, announced he was pledging 50 percent of all commissions to charity. And in 2009 Laurie Loew of Give Realty (located in Austin TX) announced giving 25 percent of her commissions to charity.

RE/MAX has supported the Children’s Miracle Network Hospitals through year-round contributions from participating agents. Since 1992, RE/MAX agents have given an estimated $143 million, as reported by a recent post to the Children’s Hospital Foundation website (childrensnational.org/giving). Besides individual agent contributions, RE/MAX “also hosts a variety of fundraising events throughout the year.” Additionally, RE/MAX agents can designate specific homes as “Miracle Homes” – “those homes that have yard signs also indicating the agent’s commitment to improving local pediatric care.”

In addition to agent donations and national fundraising for the Children’s Miracle Network, local RE/MAX offices host fundraising events too. For example, RE/MAX Centre in Olney MD holds an annual Charity Gala, the tenth one recently raised more than $40,000. Last year, RE/MAX Gateway in Chantilly VA raised more than $30,000. And RE/MAX Town Center of Germantown MD holds an annual golf tournament.

Real estate agents don’t only donate money, they get involved; and are recognized by Realtor® Magazine’s Good Neighbor Awards. The Good Neighbor Awards was launched in 2000 and “has since recognized more than 160 Realtors® for their service to their communities…Good Neighbor charities have received more than $1,000,000 in donations. In addition, each winner receives national and local publicity, which generates additional donations…Realtors® are also recognized for their community service through state and local real estate associations.”

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2016/11/11/realtors-giving-back/

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