New homes allure is neurological

new homes
New homes (infographic from candysdirt.com)

Last week I mentioned that new home sales jumped 18.7 percent year-over-year, which is a ten-year high.  It should come as no surprise that new homes are selling like hotcakes.  After all, existing home inventory has been and remains historically low, which doesn’t give many options to home buyers.  But there are other reasons for the allure of new construction.  Some of the home buyers’ motives are apparent and some are not so obvious.

The idea of buying new construction goes beyond the “new home feel.”  Buyers of new homes are attracted to modern designs and trends that are incorporated into new houses.  New home construction takes advantage of modern building techniques and materials that allow for the open floor-plan concept that many home buyers prefer.  Many of the materials used in new construction are “engineered” for efficiency and longevity.

Buyers of new homes like the feeling that there will be minimal maintenance for the first year.  Everything is brand new and there is sense of confidence that the home’s systems won’t need major repairs or replacement.  Being the first owner of a home also gives assurance that they won’t have to deal with the poor maintenance habits of the previous owner.  This is a plus for home buyers who don’t have a lot of financial reserves to address home maintenance emergencies.  Instead, they can begin to save and budget for future repairs and replacements that should be years down the road.

New home builders take advantage of current trends in green building practices.  Many new home builders tout their LEED certification, demonstrating their commitment to energy efficiency and sustainable resources.  Green building practices are not only used when the home is built, but is actually built into the design.  Home owners seeking LEED certified builders believe they will have a smaller impact on the environment and save money on energy costs.

A new trend that buyers are pursuing is the “healthy home.”  The healthy home concept emphasizes the quality of the air inside the home.  Home buyers are becoming aware of the physical and environmental benefits of good indoor air quality, which can improve their emotional well-being and reduce the potential for respiratory distress.

But there is another reason why home buyers are attracted to new homes, and it lies within the brain.  Research has demonstrated time and again that consumers respond to novelty.  This means that home buyers have a tendency to want “new.”  This can be interpreted into making an old home new by renovating a kitchen, bathroom, etc.  Or it can mean buying a newly built home.

new homes
the desire for new homes may start with the limbic system (infographic from success-mohawk.com)

The novelty seeking behavior of the home buyer isn’t just a choice, as some may argue, it’s neurological.  Basically, the desire for a new home lies within the brain.  A study conducted by Nico Bunzeck and Emrah Düzel (Absolute Coding of Stimulus Novelty in the Human Substantia Nigra/VTA; 2006; Neuron 51, 369-379) demonstrated that the hippocampal region of the brain responds to novel (new) stimuli.  The hippocampal region is part of the limbic system, which is noted for being responsible for memory and emotions.  It has also been associated with motivation.

The study also discusses the idea that novelty seeking behavior isn’t just emotional, but it is also rewarding.  This means that there is a behavioral loop for seeking new things, including buying a new home.

Home sellers need to take note of these findings.  Translating this study to home buyers may mean that a home’s feeling of “newness” is important, regardless if it’s construction, renovation, or even how the home is decorated.  Understanding what attracts and motivates home buyers can be the tipping point to get a home sold.

Copyright© Dan Krell
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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Home remodeling to stay or sell

home remodeling
Home remodeling (infographic from census.gov)

The Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University predicts expanded growth of home remodeling and renovations through most of 2018.  That’s a good indication that the economy has picked up and the many homes that fell in disrepair after the Great recession are getting the much-needed attention to extend their functionality.

It wasn’t that long ago when Kermit Baker wrote about a crisis of the declining housing stock due to extensive deferred maintenance (The Return of Substandard Housing; housingperspectives.blogspot.com; February 27, 2013).  The article written for the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University highlighted the considerable reduction of home maintenance as measured by home owner “maintenance spending” during the Great Recession.  This seemed to be a low point for the country’s housing stock.  The 28 percent decrease in maintenance spending between 2007 and 2011 essentially nullified the renovation spending during the housing boom.

Home remodeling activity
Home remodeling activity Q3-2017 (graph from jchs.harvard.edu)

The Remodeling Futures Program releases a quarterly data for Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA). The LIRA is a “a short-term outlook of national home improvement and repair spending to owner-occupied homes.”  The most recent data indicates that home remodeling and repair spending will escalate from the fourth quarter of 2017 into the third quarter of 2018, estimating an increase from 6.3 percent to 7.7 percent.  The significant increase in home improvement spending is attributed to a strengthening economy, home equity gains, and low home re-sale inventory.  Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies is optimistic about maintenance spending.  Herbert said:

“Recent strengthening of the US economy, tight for-sale housing inventories, and healthy home equity gains are all working to boost home improvement activity…Over the coming year, owners are projected to spend in excess of $330 billion on home upgrades and replacements, as well as routine maintenance.

The current LIRA data doesn’t include the effects of recent hurricanes.  It is expected that those recent disasters will significantly increase the anticipated projected maintenance spending.

Home owners really have no choice but to spend on renovations, remodeling and repairs, especially if they are planning on selling their home.  Most home buyers want a turnkey home, where the home is fresh and new and offers minimal maintenance during the first year of ownership.  The desire for a turnkey home is probably why new home sales are at a ten-year high.  This week, the US Census Bureau (census.gov) released new home sale data that indicates a month-over-month increase of 6.2 percent, and a year-over-year increase of 18.7 percent!  To compete with other re-sales and new homes, home sellers must factor in the cost of home renovations.

There are many home owners who still can’t afford to move.  The fact that many are still priced out of the move-up market has been a major issue holding back the housing market.  This phenomenon is also responsible for continued low home re-sale inventories.  As a result, many home owners are staying in their homes much longer than anticipated.  The National Association of Realtors indicated in the Home Buyer and Seller Generational Trends Report 2017 (nar.realtor) that home buyers anticipate staying in a home about twelve years.  This is an increase of about five years compared to a decade ago.

Although many home owners still can’t move, they are deciding to do home “make overs.”  The make overs will give their homes a fresh look, that typically include new floors and paint schemes.  Additionally, kitchen and bathroom renovations modernize the home.  However, home owners needing more room, are opting to expand their homes to give them larger spaces.  Some home owners are going beyond the basics and creating different spaces by moving walls.

Regardless of your reasons for home renovations and repairs, home improvement experts recommend to create a budget and stick to it, and always hire licensed contractors.

Copyright© Dan Krell
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Industry disruptors changing real estate

Reat estate industry disruptors
Reat estate industry disruptors (infographic from nar.realtor)

Buying and selling homes hasn’t really changed much over the years.  It still requires a buyer and a seller.  Getting them together often requires a real estate agent or broker.  Sure, technology has changed the brokerage relationship dramatically.  It has also forced players in the real estate industry to change or get out of the business.  A new trend of real estate brokers are embracing technology like never before.  Will these real estate industry disruptors change how real estate services will be provided in the future?  Will these industry disruptors drive a new enthusiasm for “real estate technology brokers“?

One the largest players in the real estate industry is Zillow.  Although Zillow has a number of services that can bring home buyers and sellers together, they are mostly a technology company that serves to provide consumers information.  The company generates revenue by selling services to real estate brokers and agents, as well as mortgage companies and loan officers.  Many consumers visit Zillow’s websites to view information about homes for sale or rent that are listed with brokers or the homes’ owners.  Consumers don’t pay Zillow a fee or commission for the service.

Over the years, many have talked about how Zillow’s technological influence will predict the real estate industry’s future.  Those real estate prophets foretold a time when home buyers and sellers will be able to do business on the internet without a real estate agent or broker.  But in reality, Zillow’s influence only cemented the necessity of a broker or agent to facilitate the transaction.  Zillow’s success has generated millions of dollars in revenue, but the company has struggled to post an annual net profit.

Redfin is another real estate company that has a significant internet presence.  Some think of Redfin as a technology firm offering real estate services.  But the reality is that it is a real estate brokerage built around technology.  Redfin has built its brand, and went public this year.  Although the company generates millions in revenue, the Seattle Times reported that Redfin’s IPO offering indicated that the company has yet to post an annual net profit and has accumulated losses of $613.3 million (Seattle real estate company Redfin files to go public; seattletimes.com; June 30, 2017).

Companies like Zillow and Redfin are not the only players in real estate know for technology, but they may be the most well-known.  These companies are part of a new generation of companies that strive for a huge internet footprint to drive business.  But Zillow and Redfin demonstrate that technology in and of itself is not a guarantee of profitability, nor has it been an absolute “game changer” for the real estate industry.  Instead, technology has been the catalyst for change.

Industry disruptors and real estate

Consumers probably don’t realize the subtleties, but the rapid changes in real estate technology has forced real estate agents and brokers to change how they engage their clients.  Since companies like Zillow and other real estate aggregator sites have propagated the internet, the role of the real estate agent and broker has shifted away from being the source of information to being the source of a meaningful analysis.  Agents and brokers have also shifted their roles from information keepers to transaction managers.

What better way to be a real estate change agent and industry disruptor than to build a business around technology.   Redfin is probably the most poised to make major impact to how consumers are served in the real estate industry.  With all of its tech goodness, Redfin’s contribution to the industry hasn’t been as much technological than financial.  The brand will likely be known for being instrumental in reducing real estate commissions.  In markets where Redfin has been successful in establishing its brand, agents have been under significant pressure to lower listing commissions and/or offer buyer rebates.

Copyright© Dan Krell
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Marijuana’s high home values

high home values
Weed makes home values high? (infographic from gobankingrates.com)

Did you know that the licensing of medical marijuana dispensaries in Maryland has begun?  There are only a handful of licensed dispensaries at this time, including one in Montgomery County.  Besides dispensaries, Maryland’s budding medical marijuana industry includes growers and processors.  Even though the industry is just taking off, there is growing support for legalizing marijuana for recreational use.  This is evidenced by recent bills introduced in the Maryland General Assembly that focused on establishing a tax for cannabis sales.  Besides increasing tax revenue for states where marijuana is decriminalized, there also seems to be a phenomenon of high home values.

If Maryland does decriminalize marijuana, it could be a potential source of tax.  The San Francisco Chronicle (6 lessons from legal pot in Washington and Colorado; sfchronicle.com; September 30, 2016)   pointed out that the state of Washington has had a windfall since legalizing pot.  It was reported that Washington collected $135 million for the fiscal year 2015 and $186 million for the fiscal year 2016.  They were expected a fifty percent for the fiscal year 2017.  And that is just on the excise tax on pot products, and doesn’t include the collected sales tax.

About those high home values…

Colorado and Washington state have realized a significant housing boom since decriminalizing marijuana.  Washington DC’s housing market has been buzzing along quite nicely as well.  While the surrounding suburbs’ housing market has slowed, GCAAR’s October stats (gcarr.com) reveal that Washington DC’s home sales have surged about ten percent year-to-date and average home sale prices grew about four percent!  Recent empirical studies have validated the housing-marijuana relationship.

One recent paper that provides such evidence was presented at the 2017 Annual Meeting of the Allied Social Sciences Associations held by the American Economic Association.  Cheng, Mayer and Mayer (The Effect of Legalizing Retail Marijuana on Housing Values: Evidence from Colorado; working paper, 2016) measured the “benefits and costs” of legalizing marijuana expressed in home prices.  They concede that although marijuana legalization is controversial, there are some benefits.  They determined that there is a causal effect such that Colorado’s retail marijuana law implementation was instrumental in its recent housing boom.  They concluded that implementing a retail marijuana law will give home prices a bump of about six percent.  They also found that high home values and inventory are mutually exclusive, such that the increase in housing demand did not affect housing supply.

Are high home values worth the affects of decriminalizing pot?  High home values is not everything.

Regardless of high home values, decriminalizing marijuana is not all peaches and cream.  Not to be a buzzkill, marijuana can also negatively impact real estate too.  Amy Hoak’s reporting lists a number of issues where legalizing marijuana has adverse effects to housing (5 ways marijuana legalization affects real estate; MarketWatch.com; November 25, 2014).

A major issue Hoak points out concerns federal law.  Regardless of any state or local retail marijuana law, the Feds still consider marijuana verboten.  Properties (commercial or residential) that are associated with marijuana related activities and can be subjected to civil asset forfeiture.  Another issue is financing properties related to the marijuana industry.  Federally chartered banks conform to federal law and won’t lend on these properties.

Hoak also points out issues with properties where marijuana is processed, sold or used (commercial or residential).  There has been a significant increase in property explosions in states where marijuana has been decriminalized.  The explosions are likely due to processing marijuana into hash oil, a process that involves butane.  Mold is an issue where marijuana is grown, because of the large amounts of water used in the process.  Much like cigarette smoke, marijuana odors can permeate walls and be very difficult to remove.  Even if a lease forbids it, residential landlords can have problems when tenants grow, process, and smoke marijuana in the home.

Regardless of the increased home value phenomenon associated with retail marijuana laws, some homes can be difficult to sell.  High home values aside, homes that have been “tainted” with odors or mold can languish on the market, even if they are in prime locations.  Finally, Hoak pointed out that people are not keen living next to properties involved in the marijuana industry.

Copyright© Dan Krell
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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Winter ready home

Winter Ready Home
Be Winter Ready (infographic from cdc.gov)

After several years of brutal winter weather, we were given a reprieve of mild weather last year.  The warm weather trend has moved into the fall with some balmy days.  But you shouldn’t become complacent thinking that winter weather is a long way off.  Yes, it’s the time of year to take stock in your home and prepare for winter.  Is your home winter ready?

Of course, at the center of your winter ready home is the comfort your heating system delivers.  Regardless of the type of heating system you have, have a licensed a licensed professional inspect your home’s furnace.  The inspection can identify any issues that can cause your furnace to be inefficient and/or fail.  The inspection can also root out potential safety issues, such as carbon monoxide buildup.  If the system does not need to be repaired or replaced, the HVAC professional will tune the furnace to optimize the its performance.

Another thought for being winter ready is the fireplace.  Unfortunately, many homeowners overlook fireplace and chimney maintenance.  However, putting off fireplace and chimney maintenance can become a safety issue.  Wood burning fireplaces should be cleaned, inspected, and repaired if necessary.  Gas fireplaces require a licensed technician to inspect the pilot and electronics in the firebox.  Both wood and gas fireplaces require flue and chimney maintenance.  Creosote buildup can combust and cause a chimney fire.  Birds and other animals or debris can lodge in the chimney and prevent proper venting.  Defective fireplaces or improperly vented fireplaces can produce excess carbon monoxide in your home, which can be deadly.

You’re not winter ready unless you’re prepared for emergencies.  Test the smoke and carbon monoxide detectors in your home, replace them if necessary.  If your heating system and/or fireplace burns liquid, solid, or gas fuel, then you need to have carbon monoxide detectors installed.  Carbon monoxide is invisible, odorless and tasteless and prolonged exposure can result in brain damage and death.  Experts recommend installing carbon monoxide detectors throughout the home, primarily near bedrooms.

Hose bibs are often ignored because many people don’t use them, or are not aware of how to maintain them.  However, hose bibs that are not winter ready are probably the number one source of winter pipe leaks.  If not winterized properly, the pipes leading to the hose bibs can freeze and expand.  This expansion can cause the pipe to burst, creating an unwanted winter leak.  If you’ve never winterized the hose bibs, or are not sure how, contact a licensed plumber.  Attempting to operate pipe valves that have been idle or not operated in a while can create or exacerbate an undetected leak.

Make sure your home’s roof system is winter ready.  Have a licensed professional inspect your home’s roof.  If shingles are not secure, melting and freezing snow can create ice dams.  Ice dams can lift and dislodge shingles allowing water to penetrate your home.  Water penetration from ice dams can cause damage to your home’s interior.  Besides damaging ceilings, water penetration can also damage walls and windows.

While your roof is being checked out, inspect the roof flashing, gutters and downspouts.  Roof flashing is often ignored, however is as important as shingles.  Roof flashing is used to transition from shingles (or other roofing) to other materials (such as brick, metal or PVC).  The flashing prevents water to leak between the roof and chimney or vent pipes.

Clean and repair clogged gutters and blocked downspouts.  Poorly maintained gutters and downspouts won’t allow for proper drainage of water from snow and rain.  Improper drainage can allow water to penetrate the foundation, creating structural and mold issues.

Preparing for winter will reduce the probability of having surprises.  Being winter ready will allow you to enjoy the winter months in your own winter wonderland.

Copyright© Dan Krell
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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.