Housewarming ideas and origins

Posted on January 26, 2012 by dankrell

by Dan Krell ©2012
DanKrell.com

If you’ve recently purchased a home or maybe thinking of a purchase in the near future – a housewarming party may be in your future. Before you decide to hold the “open house” for friends and family, you might consider the origins of the housewarming tradition and consider incorporating some of its original tenets.

Many believe that the etymology of housewarming is believed to originate from the idea of receiving people into your home “as if to make it warm.” Some believe that the housewarming began as a means of physically warming a new home at a time before furnaces were considered to be an expected feature of a home. The home would be “warmed” by the community, who provided the firewood as the housewarming gift. However likely this may be, today’s housewarming is most likely the survival of an ancient ritual that continues with contemporary customs.

In Archaeologia, or, Miscellaneous tracts relating to antiquity, Volume 50, Part 1(Published by the Society of Antiquaries of London, 1887: viewable on Google eBooks), there is an acknowledgement to how the “modern house-warming” was part of family survival and ancient succession customs of “joint living.” The housewarming, as an extension of “joint living,” was the tradition of the family sharing food and other necessary possessions with the new home owner; so as to help them start and maintain their home. The basic idea of “joint living” was such that the extended family had stake in the new household’s survival because of property succession rituals. Sharing food during the “house-warming” was an expression of family “joint living” within the new home.

According to Domestic life in England, from the earliest period to the present time (Published by the Editor of “The family manual and servant’s guide”, 1835; viewable on Google eBooks), housewarmings during the middle ages were restricted by King Edward III to “certain ranks.” However, it may be that housewarmings regained popularity when King Richard II held a housewarming for the re-building of Westminster Hall in 1397; it is believed that ten thousand people attended and feasted at this housewarming.

The custom of giving bread, salt, and sometimes wine is a contemporary custom that appears to have developed from ancient feasts and family survival rituals. The symbolism implied is to have abundance and happiness in the home.

Obviously, housewarming customs have changed over time. From helping to heat a home and feed the family, the housewarming has been extended beyond family to include friends, neighbors, co-workers. Much like King Richard’s housewarming, guests are often fed rather than feeding the new home owners. Housewarming gifts have also changed; guests, who years ago thought nothing more than bringing food and firewood, might think of helping with the home’s aesthetics and comfort by bringing objects d’art such as paintings and knick-knacks. Today, contributing to the new home owner’s first mortgage payment might be a welcome housewarming gift.

When planning your housewarming, consider creating new traditions and/or incorporating customs from your cultural heritage. Housewarming customs vary around the world; some traditions are spiritual while others are symbolic. Some cultures are very meticulous about the housewarming ceremony and gifts (some cultures require the move-in day to coincide with astrological charts).

Remember that the purpose of the housewarming is to initiate the first of many happy times in your home, so have fun with it and enjoy!

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of January 23, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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SOPA and real estate; Unintended consequences?

Posted on January 18, 2012 by dankrell

by Dan Krell © 2012
DanKrell.com

If you don’t surf the web very often, you may not have heard about SOPA and PIPA. No, SOPA is not something to wash with nor is PIPA the Duchess’ sister.

SOPA (H.R. 3261: Stop Online Piracy Act) and PIPA (S. 968: Preventing Real Online Threats to Economic Creativity and Theft of Intellectual Property Act of 2011; also known as Protect IP Act) were introduced with the intent to stop internet piracy and protect intellectual property. Essentially, the legislation gives the government authority to take down websites if a court finds a site in violation of the legislation; these websites would be considered “rogue” sites.

The main intention of the legislation is to protect intellectual property and revenue; there has been an annual increase of complaints of internet piracy, unauthorized copying, and counterfeit products that proliferates the internet. The bills are in the process of the maneuvering through Congress. H.R. 3261 is in “committee,” which is typically the first step after a bill is introduced in the House of Representatives; while S. 968 was recommended to be voted on by the Senate. Although the bills are the center of controversy, it is possible that they might not pass; but rather the wording could be incorporated in other legislation (much like the Indefinite Detention Without Charge or Trial provision that was included in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012, which was signed into law December 31st).

SOPA lists, among other things: expanding the definition of criminal copyright infringement; expanding what constitutes criminal trafficking of inherently dangerous goods or services; as well as increasing penalties for specified trade secret offenses and various other intellectual property offenses.

Supporters for SOPA/PIPA contend that internet theft has reduced corporate earnings; passing this legislation would protect their intellectual property from illegal distribution on the internet by shutting down or restricting access to offending websites, thus protecting revenue and entrepreneurship.

Critics claim that the legislation is an over reach and has the potential for abuse, which if passed could allow larger companies to control internet commerce by forcing competitors to take down competing websites. Some argue that such legislation, which concerns many bloggers and some news outlets, may conflict with the first amendment.

For example: the operators of Craigslist claim that if the legislation passes, they may be ordered to shutdown (http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20111005/10082416208/monster-cable-claims-ebay-craigslist-costco-sears-are-rogue-sites.shtml); Craigslist is listed by Monster Cable® as an “unauthorized dealer” and “blacklisted” along with Sears, Costco, eBay, and many other sites for allegedly selling counterfeit products (http://www.monstercable.com/counterfeit/dealers_blk.asp).

The internet has become a major source of real estate information; consumers and professionals search the internet daily for home listings by brokers and FSBOs, housing and economic news, legislation, public and other related information. The National Association of Realtors® 2010 Profile of Buyers and Sellers indicate that 89% of home buyers use the internet for information and home searching. The number of home buyers, sellers, and owners using the internet to assist them in making a real estate related decision grows annually.

Although the consequences of enacting SOPA/PIPA into law (on the real estate industry) are unclear, it would be undesirable and unfortunate if readily accessible real estate information were to be unduly restricted by some association’s or real estate company’s claim of content ownership. Learn more about SOPA/PIPA, and provide feedback to our Representatives and Senators.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of January 16, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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Buying a home after a foreclosure or shortsale

Posted on January 12, 2012 by dankrell

by Dan Krell © 2012
DanKrell.com

If you’ve been through tough financial times, you know that it feels as if your financial picture may never improve. But for most people, experiencing a financial challenge turns out to be just a blip in time; they eventually move on with their life. Given that notion, mortgage lenders know that people endure temporary financial problems through their lives- underwriting guidelines may allow for a past foreclosure, short-sale, or even bankruptcy.

In the old days (prior to desktop underwriting), underwriting was “manual,” meaning that a loan’s approval or denial was decided by a human who reviewed your file. If you were lucky enough to borrow from the local small neighborhood lender, there was a very good chance they knew you, your family, and your financial circumstances (much like the Bailey Building and Loan from “It’s a Wonderful Life”); you had a chance to provide explanations and compensating factors to increase your chance of being approved.

Today, mortgage underwriting is mostly accomplished through automated systems, such as “Desktop Underwriter” and “Loan Prospector.” The automated systems make decisions based on algorithms and do not have the ability to weigh circumstances for negative reports on a credit history. Some lenders may still provide manual underwriting, but borrower requirements have become increasingly strict (including higher minimum credit scores).

Take heart; you still may be able to get a mortgage after a foreclosure, short-sale, or bankruptcy.

For conventional mortgages underwritten with Fannie Mae guidelines, you’ll have to wait at least seven years after a foreclosure. Likewise, you’ll have to wait seven years after a short-sale- unless you can muster a large downpayment (you may be able to qualify: after two years with a 20% downpayment; and four years with a 10% downpayment)! You’ll have to wait four years after a chapter 7 bankruptcy is discharged; and two years after a chapter 13 is discharged (but four years if the chapter 13 is dismissed).

For FHA mortgages, you’ll have to wait at least three years after a foreclosure, two years after a chapter 7 bankruptcy discharge, and one year current on a chapter 13 payment plan (with court approval). A short-sale is differentiated depending if the loan was in default: if the loan was not in default at the time of the short-sale and your previous 12 months payments were timely, you may be eligible for a FHA mortgage; however if the loan was in default prior to short-sale, you will have to wait at least three years before you can qualify.

If you are eligible for VA financing, you will have to wait two years after a foreclosure, short-sale, and chapter 7 bankruptcy (one year into a chapter 13 payment plan with court approval). However, if your foreclosure or short-sale was on a VA mortgage, then your eligibility may be reduced.

If you’re financial issues were caused by circumstances beyond your control, you may be able to get an exception that could shorten the waiting periods. However, you’ll have to provide documentation for the underwriter to review, and not all lenders grant such exemptions.

There are many different mortgage programs, and underwriting guidelines vary. The timelines and requirements posted here are as of time of article; it’s very possible that these guidelines will or have changed. It’s important to talk to a licensed loan officer to know what you need to qualify, as well as which mortgage program will be best for your particular circumstances.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of January 9, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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What’s the return on your investment?

Posted on January 4, 2012 by dankrell

by Dan Krell © 2012
DanKrell.com

If you’ve been wavering over the decision to moving into a new home versus renovating your current home; or maybe you’re planning a sale this year and thinking of making improvements to improve the home’s appeal- here’s a resource to help. According to the Remodeling 2011–12 Cost vs. Value Report (www.costvsvalue.com), you can get an idea of how much return on your investment you might get from some of the most popular renovation and addition projects that people undertake.

The 2011-2012 Cost vs Value Report, published annually by Remodeling Magazine, is now available and compares the top remodeling projects and the value that you might recoup at resale. The Cost vs Value ratios were collected for major cities/regions across the country. While project costs were obtained from a construction estimates database compiled by Home Tech Publishing, the project resale values were obtained through a National Association of Realtors® survey of appraisers, agents and brokers.

It is noted that a project Cost vs Value ratio is typically higher in “hotter” real estate markets, and can sometimes exceed 100% (recouping more than was spent on the project at resale). This idea is consistent with the annual Trends in Cost vs Value, which indicates that the average return on investment was higher when the housing market was at the peak in 2005. Of course a major reason for decline in the Cost vs Value ratio from the peak has been the retreat of home prices nationwide. There is speculation that since the national ratio decreased less this year than recent years, the housing market may be bottoming out.

Besides differences in local home prices, differences in regional Cost vs Value ratios can also be attributed to variances in labor and materials costs. Some experts point to a glut of construction workers who are seeking work as a reason for decreased labor costs in some areas; while material costs have not changed much or have become more expensive.

The Cost vs Value Report groups the Washington DC area in the South Atlantic region, which was ranked as the third highest Cost vs Value ratio out of nine regions. The South Atlantic region averaged a ratio of 67.3%, while the highest performing region was Pacific with a ratio of 71.3% was and the lowest performing region was the West North Central with a ratio of 49.5%.

Enough of the technical stuff…
The top Cost vs Value ratio midrange job for the Washington DC area is a garage door replacement, which is estimated to recoup about 93.2% of the cost at resale; followed by a wood deck addition, which is estimated to recoup about 91.3% of the cost at resale (compared to a composite deck addition which is estimated to recoup only 78.8% of the cost).

The top “upscale” project is a fiber-cement siding replacement, which is estimated to recoup 89.7% of the cost at resale (compared to foam backed vinyl siding, which is estimated to recoup only 78% of the cost). The “upscale” garage door replacement is estimated to only recoup 81.4% of the cost (compared to the replacement described above).

Additional projects and descriptions of the projects with costs can be viewed in the Cost vs Value Report. The full Washington DC area renovation/addition Cost vs Value report can be downloaded at costvsvalue.com.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of January 2, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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Real Estate in review 2011

Posted on December 27, 2011 by dankrell

by Dan Krell © 2011
DanKrell.com

Since the housing downturn, optimistic predictions the real estate market have been forecasted annually. However, what we have seen in retrospect is that home buyer incentives along with other housing stimulus measures have only acted to maintain an ailing housing sector from deteriorating further. Some still await the market bottom. And although 2011 revealed additional weaknesses in global economic systems as well as the unintentional consequences of policy and regulation, 2011 felt as if it was the most optimistic year in real estate since the downturn.

2011 will be remembered as the year that the National Association of Realtors (NAR) revised existing home sales down 14.3% for estimates between 2007 and 2010 (data released on December 21, 2011 and available on realtor.org). Regardless of the re-benchmarking of data, the NAR has announced that existing home sales in 2011 continue to strengthen as November’s data indicates increased sales from the previous year (really?).

2011 was not the year for home price gains, however. Home prices continued to decline nationwide. However, the Washington DC and Detroit metro areas were the only two regions that posted positive home price gains from the previous year according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

2011 was the year that housing finance reform continued to crawl forward, while Wall Street reform seemed to move quickly with the passage of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Although Dodd-Frank seemed to be focused squarely on Wall Street, it appeared to be far reaching with the requirements such as the 20% down payment Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM).

2011 will be remembered as the year that the Eurozone almost collapsed. The financial déjà-vu that played out over the summer (and is still yet totally resolved, mind you), threatened markets worldwide- including the U.S. housing market. The sharp economic decline, that some braced for, was averted.

2011 was the year that we saw a bifurcated market become increasingly significant. The upper-bracket/luxury home market appeared to stabilize ahead of other housing, as upper-bracket/luxury housing activity remained strong. In fact two of the most expensive homes in Washington, DC sold this year! Reports that Evermay, the DC mansion that was originally listed for $49 Million, sold for $22 Million in July; while Halcyon House was reported to sell a couple of months later for $12.5 Million.

Regardless of the continued efforts of government preparedness campaigns (remember the Center for Disease Control “Zombie Apocalypse” preparedness campaign on blogs.cdc.gov?); 2011 will be remembered as the year that nature made a point about preparedness. If you weren’t concerned about preparing for the Mayan 2012 prophecy; then enduring hurricanes, floods and an earthquake probably had you at least checking your homeowners’ insurance.

As foreclosures declined in 2011, it seemed as if reports of mortgage lender abuses increased. Lenders appeared to be under fire from class action lawsuits as well as attorneys general for lending practices and foreclosure procedures; Bank of America recently reportedly settled a lawsuit for $335 Million.

Alas, the year is almost over; having us searching for fond memories of 2011 and wondering what will 2012 bring. Some look for home prices to make some gains in the coming year (homepricefutures.com), however more importantly you can probably expect the housing market to be glamorized in the pomp and circumstance of the election cycle of 2012.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of December 26, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

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Understanding the revision of home sale statistics

Posted on December 20, 2011 by dankrell

by Dan Krell © 2011
DanKrell.com

As the housing market slid, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) was often criticized for producing home sale data that seemed unrealistic. As criticism seemed to peek, NAR announced earlier this year that they were seeking to “re-benchmark” data for counting the number of homes that sold.

According to a December 13th Reuters report (Existing home sales to be revised down from 2007: NAR), the NAR is “revising down” home sales statistics because of double counting, “indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought.” The news sparked cries of “fraud!’ and “told you so’s” across the blogosphere; while some used the news as a marketing opportunity to tout their data as unwavering.

However, according to the NAR’s press release, “Q&A on Re-Benchmarking of Home Sales” (economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org), the main reason for the re-benchmarking is for data drift that occurred during the housing downturn; re-benchmarking is a common aspect of estimating economic data (much like the government’s GDP and employment figure revisions). The re-benchmarking is only for existing home sales and not home prices.

According to Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, data drift is to blame for the over estimates. The monthly existing home sales data that is reported by NAR is compiled from MLS boards across the country. Data drift was revealed when comparisons were made with other available home sales data.

Data drift is a term that describes the change of non-constant variables used in statistical measurements. The data drift in NAR’s existing home sale data was described as being caused by several factors: an increasing reliance on Realtors®, double listings, and inconsistencies across MLS boards.

Although MLS data typically tracks Realtor® home sales data, there are homes that are also sold by home builders and for-sale-by owners (fsbo) which are not typically reflected in the MLS. Dr. Yun believes that some of the data drift is due to the increasing reliance on Realtors® as the market deteriorated to sell homes they typically did not sell in the past (by fsbo’s and builders).

Additionally, it was realized that MLS home sale data was duplicated in some instances. In some regions, it is not unusual for Realtors® to belong to more than one MLS board. In some of those instances, Realtors® often input the data in two or more MLS’s; thus resulting in a duplicate sales.

As technology and markets advance, local and regional MLS boards found themselves changing to increase the quality of the MLS data, as well as expanding to provide service in outlying areas. Although many MLS boards attempt to adhere to consistent data standards and practices, compiled home sale data is not always consistent across all the MLS boards. Additionally, as MLS coverage grew, it could have been logically assumed that the quantity of home sales reported for the growing MLS boards would increase because of the wider coverage.

Additionally, Dr. Yun stated that the census data used to benchmark the MLS data has also changed; the U.S. Census changed the data it collected by changing survey forms. In re-benchmarking, the NAR expects a revision of existing home sales to account for the increase of MLS entries of new homes as well as homes that sold multiple times within a 12-month period (flips). The re-benchmarking should also account for fsbo variances that were not previously adjusted.

The revisions are expected this week.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of December 19, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

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Post-crisis real estate: What’s in store for the housing market?

Posted on December 15, 2011 by dankrell

by Dan Krell © 2011
DanKrell.com

It is often said that history repeats itself. If we want a glimpse of our future, we should look to the past; if we want to see how a post-crisis housing market looks like, we should look to see how a previous housing crisis ended.

According to the Census Bureau (census.gov), the last time homeownership rates declined was 1980-1990. Recent seasonally adjusted homeownership rates have been declining slowly from the all time high of 69.2% reached in the first quarter of 2005. The current seasonally adjusted homeownership rate (for the third quarter of 2011) is 66.1%, which is similar to the homeownership rate of 66.2% reported by the 2000 Census.

Although the country is dealing with some of the same economic issues that was problematic during the early 1980’s; the current real estate market is more akin to like the post S&L crisis of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, when the market was flooded with foreclosures and a coinciding recession impeded an already difficult housing market. Some may remember that during that time home prices decreased and, not unlike recent events, many home owners walked away from their homes (some lenders were sent the keys of recently purchased homes).

Then like today, resulting legislation changed the lending landscape in an effort to ensure such systemic abuse and failure would not happen again. The Census reported that the homeownership rate in 1990 was 64.2%, just shy of the 64.4% homeownership rate reported in 1980.

Additionally, mortgage interest rates were “normalized” post the S&L crisis, making homeownership more affordable than the previous decade. Then, like today, low mortgage rates are touted to make owning a home more attractive than renting.

Also, like that time, the real estate business was changing. Besides changing business models (buyer agency was becoming recognized across the country), large real estate brokers downsized and/or absorbed brokers wanting to get out of the business. Today’s real estate business models have changed to accommodate technology and a vast array of information; additionally, national and regional brokers may begin to see their market share change with the marketplace.

Demographics are always changing. Current demographics indicate a shrinking pool of willing home buyers and sellers. As home prices have dropped over the last several years, many baby boomers who planned to downsize cannot afford to sell their home; additionally, “move-up” home buyers have also decided to make do with their current home longer than they planned as they find that their home’s equity has diminished. Many renters are choosing to continue renting as homeownership is viewed as an anchor; they prefer to be more mobile and not tied down by homeownership until they become more established in their careers.

Before home prices can stabilize, many expect average home prices to drop another 20%. Home prices have (more or less) historically returned to an established “norm” after a housing boom. Home prices are about 26% higher than the “norm” adjusted price, which was established in 1890 as reported by Robert Shiller (Irrational Exuberance; Broadway Books 2nd edition, 2005).

As we move forward, economic and industry related barriers continue to prevent a recovery in the real estate sector. It may be several years before these issues may be managed; however once addressed, confidence in homeownership may begin to increase once again instilling pride and sense of community.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of December 12, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

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It’s time to buy a new home

Posted on December 8, 2011 by dankrell

by Dan Krell © 2011
DanKrell.com

new homes for saleThe time may be right for you to buy a new home this spring. Low interest rates and reduced prices, combined with builder incentives may make a new home a viable option that many home buyers have forgotten about.

Home builders that survived the culling of the market decline have sought out ways to make homes more affordable. Going with the new trend, some home builders are offering more efficient floor plans, as well as more cost efficient building processes.

Modular homes seem to be more prevalent these days as custom home builders seek to reduce costs to the buyers as well as increasing floor plan flexibility and construction quality. The reason why many home builders are turning to modular designs may be that the modules are built in a controlled environment, which increases quality while reducing weather related delays and damage. In a typical plant, manufactured and modular housing fabrication quality specialists constantly monitor fabrication to ensure the final product meets or exceeds all codes, which is unlike on-site construction where inspections can be random and inconsistent.

One attraction to buying a new home is that everything is new! Along with the new, one expects warranties. Make sure you discuss the warranties that are provided with your purchase with your builder and Realtor®. It is typical for new appliances, fixtures and flooring to have limited manufactures warranties, so make sure you receive all paperwork related to those items.

Additionally, most builders offer a warranty as well; the warranty is most likely guaranteed by a third party. According to a homebuyer’s booklet offered by the Maryland Attorney General’s Office Consumer Protection Division, a home builder warranty in Maryland must include at a minimum: “any defects in materials or workmanship for one year; any defects in the electrical, plumbing, heating, cooling and ventilating systems for two years (not to exceed the period of the manufacturer’s warranty); and defects to any load-bearing structural elements for five years.” The booklet recommends that you contact the third party guaranteeing the warranty, to check if the builder is in good standing.

Although a home may be new, it does not guarantee that it is perfect when delivered to you. It is common to conduct a “final walkthrough” with a builder representative to check the systems and to identify any defects that may need repair or correction. Builders will ask for a “punch list” of items that need correction.

Former president of the American Society of Home Inspectors, Frank Lesh, was on record as saying that “Even new homes have defects that only a professional can detect…” He stated that a home inspector can help ensure that a new home’s major systems (roof, foundation, electrical, plumbing) “are functioning properly and safely before moving in”… “Because many items can’t be inspected after a house has been built, homeowners should consider having a series of phased inspections conducted at key milestone markers. ASHI encourages homebuyers to consider an inspection at the following times: prior to foundation pour; prior to insulation and drywall; prior to the final walkthrough.” (ashi.org)

If you’re considering buying a new home, consider visiting new home resources offered by the National Association of Home Builders (nahb.org) and the American Society of Home Inspectors (ashi.org), as well as the homebuyer’s booklet offered by the Maryland Attorney General’s Office Consumer Protection Division (www.oag.state.md.us/Homebuilder).

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of December 5, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

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Will inflation help the housing market: how real estate is affected

Posted on November 30, 2011 by dankrell

by Dan Krell © 2011
DanKrell.com

Homes for saleMany people believe that as inflation increases, home values decrease. The argument put forth is that as purchasing power decreases, so do the value of your assets.  However, some economists say that it is flawed thinking to assume that housing, like other goods, decline in value as inflation increases.

Collin Barr reported that Yale economist Robert Shiller (coauthor of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index) has spent years collecting data that indicates “that house prices over time tend to rise more or less in step with inflation” (fortune.com: Why house prices will keep falling; March 29, 2011). That’s all well and good, except that home prices far exceeded the rate of inflation during the recent “bubble years;” and is reported as still having a 25% gap from baseline. So, unless we see an increasing rate of inflation, some believe that home prices drop another 20%.

Brian Summerfield, Online Editor of REALTOR® Magazine, describes (in an April 5th Realtor.org blog post) a scenario of how inflation can lift the current housing market. By highlighting affordability, he explains the cost of housing is currently cheaper to own a home (compared to renting). Additionally, as inflation creeps up and eats more of the family budget by decreasing buying power, the a person’s housing budget will be pressured by rising rents and buying a home will be increasingly more attractive.

Of course, Mr. Summerfield’s scenario is hinged on several “caveats”: interest rates will have to remain relatively low (he says no higher than 7%); implementation of “accessible” 30 year fixed mortgage programs; housing supply will have to remain low; and no additional economic crises.

In several Realtor.org blog posts, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors®, discussed inflation and housing. In an April 18th post he explained that “Unexpected inflation” does erode savings, however actually benefits borrowers. Additionally, in a September 15th post reporting that housing starts are the lowest since World War II, Yun explains that some investors are returning to undervalued real estate as a hedge against inflation. Since new housing is not on track with population growth, some believe there will be a housing shortage that will cause increased demand in coming years.

House for saleThe reality is that although there is a relationship between home prices and inflation, it does not signify causality. In other words, although one may have an effect on the other, housing and inflation are independent. Even in Brian Summerfield’s scenario, he is cautious to provide conditions to bring his vision to reality. And no one has talked about the affects of stagflation.

When talking about a recovery, the typical homeowner should remain cautious- especially in espousing a view that a home is an investment vehicle. Even though our consumer oriented society has encouraged people to pay for their lifestyles with their home’s equity, it’s now widely decried as irresponsible.

In light of the current economic conditions, many potential home buyers are becoming more pragmatic as well. Even though the basic benefits of homeownership include affordability, community, etc, many potential home buyers view owning a home as anchor that will keep them tied to a specific area. And in a time when jobs are scarce, many people want the freedom of mobility in case they have a career opportunity elsewhere.

Will inflation help the real estate market? We will only know in hindsight.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of November 28, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

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Take care of your vacant home

Posted on November 24, 2011 by dankrell

by Dan Krell © 2011
DanKrell.com

According to a 2009 USA Today report, 1 out of 9 homes are vacreal estate for saleant. Although, more so in recent times, “foreclosure” may come to mind when you hear “vacant home;” however, there are other reasons why a home may be vacant, which may include: the home owner bought their new home prior to selling; seasonal travelers head to warmer climates during the winter; job relocation; divorce; or an unsettled estate. Regardless of the reason for leaving your home vacant, making preparations prior to leaving may make your return more welcoming.

Even if your home is listed with a Realtor®, don’t assume that the home will be looked after; take care of your asset and ensure that your vacant home is cared for. Consider having a trusted person in charge of checking the vacant home regularly. Besides collecting un-forwarded mail, this person can take care of issues that may arise while you’re away.

As we are headed into winter, consider winterizing the home. “Winterizing” is jargon that describes the draining of water and pressure from the plumbing system. Experts recommend winterizing your home if you plan leaving your home vacant during the winter months. Winterizing your home may reduce the risk of bursting pipes as well as possibly reducing damage to plumbing fixtures. When winterizing and de-winterizing your home, consider hiring a licensed plumber because you may encounter unexpected high pressure, and the winterizing process may cause increased stress on the plumbing system.

Check the drainage around your home to ensure that water is removed away from the home as intended. Test the sump pump (if you have one) to ensure it is in working order. Blockages from leaves and other debris can build up on the roof and gutters as well as around basement stairwell drains (which are notorious for clogging and may cause a flooded basement). Clogged gutters and drains may cause roof and basement leaks even when a home is lived in; certainly if unattended to, can wreak havoc on your vacant home.

real estateCold weather is also a time when pests are seeking a warm shelter; you don’t want to return to the surprise of a home that has been infested with mice, raccoons, or other pests. A licensed pest control expert may be able to assist you in preventing an infestation by searching for and sealing pest related access points.

Theft and vandalism is often a primary concern for vacant home owners. Besides being the target of thieves, vacant homes often become the focus of vandals. Besides ensuring that valuables are safe, make certain that all doors and windows are secure.

Finally, consult with your insurance agent about your home owners’ policy. Don’t assume that you’re covered just because you have insurance. Besides describing what the insurance company deems as “vacant,” many home owners’ policies have coverage limitations when the home is considered vacant. Your insurance agent can assist you in determining if you need additional coverage while you’re away from your home.

Taking care of a vacant home is not only for lenders taking possession of foreclosed homes. Whatever your reason for leaving your home behind this winter, think ahead and take care of your asset. Consider taking preventative measures to keep your home safe and intact as well as arranging for someone to take charge of the home while you’re away.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of November 21, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

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