Looking beyond inventory and sales: A deeper understanding of current housing market conditions

Posted on February 15, 2012 by Dan

by Dan Krell © 2012

Housing StatisticsAccording to the National Association of Realtors® news release of February 9th, home affordability has increased in the last quarter of 2011 in many metro areas- including the metropolitan Washington DC region. The increase of home affordability is attributed to “softer existing-home prices and record-low mortgage interest rates in the fourth quarter.” The Washington DC region home affordability increased in the last quarter about 5.8% while the region’s home prices for existing homes fell about 5.4% (realtor.org).

Details of the NAR’s fourth quarter market analysis include a continued interest in home ownership among first time home buyers, as 33% of home purchases in the fourth quarter of 2011 were by first time home buyers. Additionally, 29% of the homes purchased in fourth quarter were “all-cash purchases,” which has been relatively unchanged; however, the percentage of “all-cash” real investor purchases was 19% (down from 20% realized in the third quarter).

Greater housing affordability may sound promising, however having more meaningful information may help understand what’s happening in the housing market.

To get a clearer understanding of the housing market, you might consider the February 10th speech given by Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, to the National Association of Home Builders entitled, “Housing Markets In Transistion” (federalreserve.gov). The overview of the housing market was explained as an imbalance in the supply and demand. Supply in the housing market, as Dr. Bernanke described it, greatly exceeded demand in the last few years. Demand for housing, as measured by home vacancy, has considerably decreased; home vacancy is “dramatically” elevated from the number of vacant homes in the first half of the 2000’s. Additionally, a high foreclosure rate is likely to continue; which would not only increase the number of vacant homes, but negatively affect families and communities as well.

Adding to the imbalance is the strengthening of the rental market, which evidently has increased demand.

Housing StatisticsDr. Bernanke also described the problems in the housing market as a secondary issue that stems from more pressing economic concerns, such as employment and household formation. Economic uncertainty has impacted the willingness to commit to home ownership. “…housing may no longer be viewed as the secure investment it once was thought to be…”

A stifled housing market has also held back an overall economic recovery. Dr. Bernanke stated that home equity has been reduced about 50% from the housing peak; more than $7 Trillion of equity has been lost which resulted in a decrease of household spending of “$3 to $5 per year for every $100 of housing lost” (which is estimated to be about $200 Billion to $375 Billion per year). Besides the reduced consumer spending, low/negative equity creates other problems for home owners too; such as: restricting the ability to refinance to lower interest rates; reducing or eliminating the ability to cash out home equity for emergency expenses; and possibly preventing a move due to an underwater mortgage.

Dr. Bernanke was clear when stating that housing problems have far-reaching effects on home owners, communities, the financial system, and “the vitality of the economy as a whole.” He continued to state, “…This observation underscores the importance of efforts to improve the condition of the housing market.” He is not the first to say that there is no single solution; however, he is one of the few who has been able to articulate the interconnected factors that need to be addressed.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of February 13, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

Posted in Ben Bernanke, housing market, real estate, statistics | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Trending home designs

Posted on February 9, 2012 by Dan

by Dan Krell © 2012
DanKrell.com

You might be amazed if you stopped to think about how much the home has changed over the years. From modest beginnings, when most homes were one or two rooms, the home has transformed from the humble shelter to today’s technological marvel that expresses your personality and popular tastes.

Early home architectural designs were very practical, and may have changed along with heating/cooling innovations. Before the furnace was a standard feature in the home, most homes were built around the fireplace; in very early homes, a central fireplace was where the homeowners cooked their food. Further advances in home design occurred as new building materials were developed; the use of drywall may be responsible for the spread of “tract housing” in the 1940’s and 50’s, as home builders realized they could make homes faster and more affordable.

However, a driving factor in today’s home designs is popularity with home buyers (because that’s what sells of course). The American Institute of Architects (aia.org) conducts the quarterly Home Design Trends Survey to track architectural trends and reveal what home buyers want in their homes. Besides the fact that a wounded housing market reduced the demand for the McMansion, what else is trending?

Economy and energy efficiency design features and appliances have been trending since the financial crisis. Since 2007, there has been a significant increase in demand for high efficiency furnaces, tankless water heaters, and more insulation.

Highlights of the recent Home Design Trends Survey (2nd quarter 2011) reveal how the economy has impacted home design. Most “Special feature rooms” have declined in popularity; except for home offices where people can telecommute, there was a significant decrease in the demand for interior greenhouses, media rooms, interior kennels, safe rooms, kid’s wings, and exercise rooms (demand for au-pair suites has remained steady). Informal living features continue to trend as people are increasingly staying home to entertain themselves and friends; a demand for “home-centered activities” spaces and outdoor living spaces are increasing. Requests for indoor-outdoor transition rooms, such as mudrooms, remain strong.

Special features continue to focus on energy efficiency, as well as increasingly on accessibility. Insulation seems to be a major home buyer focus as extra insulation or the use of alternative insulation techniques are in high demand.

As visitability laws gain momentum nationwide, home accessibility design features have increased in demand. First floor owner suites, height adjusted fixtures (sinks faucets and light switches), ramps, and even elevators have increased in popularity among home buyers.

Technological advances also dictate home buyer preferences. New energy efficient devices continue in popularity as well as low-maintenance products. High performance windows were a top requested item, as were water saving devices. Home buyers are also demanding more low maintenance engineered materials in their homes; such as floors, siding, and decking.

As technology changes, home design is anticipated to change as well. For example, some foresee that the demand for the home office to diminish as wireless communication technologies advance such that people won’t anchor themselves to one room as they work from home.

If you think that trending home design features are only for new homes, think again. Popular design features often filter into older homes as home owners renovate. As a design feature’s popularity increases, so does the chance it can be found at the Home Depot.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of February 6, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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“Exceptionally” low mortgage rates for buyers and owners

Posted on February 1, 2012 by Dan

by Dan Krell © 2012
DanKrell.com

Last week, the Fed issued a statement from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicating that the target rate was to remain between 0 and ¼ percent; and an “exceptionally” low rate is warranted through 2014. Although there were some bright areas of the economy, some sectors remain an obstacle- including housing (which was described as “depressed”).

The Fed’s estimation of the housing market appears contrary to the seemingly upbeat reports issued by the National Association of Realtors®, which recently revised downward several years’ worth of housing data. However, by keeping an ear to the ground, the Fed goes beyond the typical statistical analysis by collecting and analyzing anecdotal data from industry experts around the country. The anecdotes are compiled, analyzed and published eight times a year by the Fed as the “Beige Book.” Formally known as the “Summery of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District,” the most recent report indicated an overall feeling that home sales are sluggish throughout the country. Furthermore, the report from the Richmond District (which covers MD, DC, VA) indicates that although there were a few pockets of “strength,” a softened housing market was depicted citing the sentiment of some local real estate agents.

Getting back to interest rates, the Fed’s monetary policy of “exceptionally” low interest rates for some time could mean cheap mortgage money for you. There’s no telling how much lower mortgage interest rates can go, as we are already seeing some of the lowest interest rates in several generations. The interest rate on your mortgage is tied directly to your monthly mortgage payment; a lower rate typically means a lower monthly payment.

For home buyers, “exceptionally” low interest rates could result in a more affordable home purchase; buying a home today may possibly be cheaper than paying rent. Even if home prices continue at the current level during the next few years, home affordability can drastically change if mortgage rates rise.

If you currently own a home, “exceptionally” low interest rates could mean that you could possibly reduce your monthly mortgage payment. However, refinancing is not for everyone. According to the Federal Reserve Board’s “A Consumer’s Guide to Mortgage Refinancings,” refinancing may not be for you if: you’ve had your mortgage for a long time, your mortgage has a prepayment penalty, or you plan to move in the next few years.

For a typical mortgage, the proportion of the mortgage payment that is applied to principal increases through the life of the loan. So, if you’ve had your mortgage for a while, chances are that you’ve been increasingly paying toward the mortgage principal (and building equity). However, if you refinance, the mortgage life cycle begins anew and much of your payment would be applied to interest.

If your mortgage has a pre-payment penalty, you can be charged for paying off your mortgage early. Any pre-payment penalty should be considered in the total cost of the refinance so as to consider how long it may take to “break even” based on your monthly mortgage savings.

In today’s market, many home owners are putting off a move and refinancing instead. However, if you’re planning to sell your home soon after the refinance, consider the “beak even” point of your monthly mortgage savings. Selling your home shortly after a refinance could make the short term mortgage savings seem short sighted.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of January 30, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

Posted in Federal Reserve, mortgage interest rates, real estate | Tagged | Leave a comment

Housewarming ideas and origins

Posted on January 26, 2012 by Dan

by Dan Krell ©2012
DanKrell.com

If you’ve recently purchased a home or maybe thinking of a purchase in the near future – a housewarming party may be in your future. Before you decide to hold the “open house” for friends and family, you might consider the origins of the housewarming tradition and consider incorporating some of its original tenets.

Many believe that the etymology of housewarming is believed to originate from the idea of receiving people into your home “as if to make it warm.” Some believe that the housewarming began as a means of physically warming a new home at a time before furnaces were considered to be an expected feature of a home. The home would be “warmed” by the community, who provided the firewood as the housewarming gift. However likely this may be, today’s housewarming is most likely the survival of an ancient ritual that continues with contemporary customs.

In Archaeologia, or, Miscellaneous tracts relating to antiquity, Volume 50, Part 1(Published by the Society of Antiquaries of London, 1887: viewable on Google eBooks), there is an acknowledgement to how the “modern house-warming” was part of family survival and ancient succession customs of “joint living.” The housewarming, as an extension of “joint living,” was the tradition of the family sharing food and other necessary possessions with the new home owner; so as to help them start and maintain their home. The basic idea of “joint living” was such that the extended family had stake in the new household’s survival because of property succession rituals. Sharing food during the “house-warming” was an expression of family “joint living” within the new home.

According to Domestic life in England, from the earliest period to the present time (Published by the Editor of “The family manual and servant’s guide”, 1835; viewable on Google eBooks), housewarmings during the middle ages were restricted by King Edward III to “certain ranks.” However, it may be that housewarmings regained popularity when King Richard II held a housewarming for the re-building of Westminster Hall in 1397; it is believed that ten thousand people attended and feasted at this housewarming.

The custom of giving bread, salt, and sometimes wine is a contemporary custom that appears to have developed from ancient feasts and family survival rituals. The symbolism implied is to have abundance and happiness in the home.

Obviously, housewarming customs have changed over time. From helping to heat a home and feed the family, the housewarming has been extended beyond family to include friends, neighbors, co-workers. Much like King Richard’s housewarming, guests are often fed rather than feeding the new home owners. Housewarming gifts have also changed; guests, who years ago thought nothing more than bringing food and firewood, might think of helping with the home’s aesthetics and comfort by bringing objects d’art such as paintings and knick-knacks. Today, contributing to the new home owner’s first mortgage payment might be a welcome housewarming gift.

When planning your housewarming, consider creating new traditions and/or incorporating customs from your cultural heritage. Housewarming customs vary around the world; some traditions are spiritual while others are symbolic. Some cultures are very meticulous about the housewarming ceremony and gifts (some cultures require the move-in day to coincide with astrological charts).

Remember that the purpose of the housewarming is to initiate the first of many happy times in your home, so have fun with it and enjoy!

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of January 23, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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SOPA and real estate; Unintended consequences?

Posted on January 18, 2012 by Dan

by Dan Krell © 2012
DanKrell.com

If you don’t surf the web very often, you may not have heard about SOPA and PIPA. No, SOPA is not something to wash with nor is PIPA the Duchess’ sister.

SOPA (H.R. 3261: Stop Online Piracy Act) and PIPA (S. 968: Preventing Real Online Threats to Economic Creativity and Theft of Intellectual Property Act of 2011; also known as Protect IP Act) were introduced with the intent to stop internet piracy and protect intellectual property. Essentially, the legislation gives the government authority to take down websites if a court finds a site in violation of the legislation; these websites would be considered “rogue” sites.

The main intention of the legislation is to protect intellectual property and revenue; there has been an annual increase of complaints of internet piracy, unauthorized copying, and counterfeit products that proliferates the internet. The bills are in the process of the maneuvering through Congress. H.R. 3261 is in “committee,” which is typically the first step after a bill is introduced in the House of Representatives; while S. 968 was recommended to be voted on by the Senate. Although the bills are the center of controversy, it is possible that they might not pass; but rather the wording could be incorporated in other legislation (much like the Indefinite Detention Without Charge or Trial provision that was included in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012, which was signed into law December 31st).

SOPA lists, among other things: expanding the definition of criminal copyright infringement; expanding what constitutes criminal trafficking of inherently dangerous goods or services; as well as increasing penalties for specified trade secret offenses and various other intellectual property offenses.

Supporters for SOPA/PIPA contend that internet theft has reduced corporate earnings; passing this legislation would protect their intellectual property from illegal distribution on the internet by shutting down or restricting access to offending websites, thus protecting revenue and entrepreneurship.

Critics claim that the legislation is an over reach and has the potential for abuse, which if passed could allow larger companies to control internet commerce by forcing competitors to take down competing websites. Some argue that such legislation, which concerns many bloggers and some news outlets, may conflict with the first amendment.

For example: the operators of Craigslist claim that if the legislation passes, they may be ordered to shutdown (http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20111005/10082416208/monster-cable-claims-ebay-craigslist-costco-sears-are-rogue-sites.shtml); Craigslist is listed by Monster Cable® as an “unauthorized dealer” and “blacklisted” along with Sears, Costco, eBay, and many other sites for allegedly selling counterfeit products (http://www.monstercable.com/counterfeit/dealers_blk.asp).

The internet has become a major source of real estate information; consumers and professionals search the internet daily for home listings by brokers and FSBOs, housing and economic news, legislation, public and other related information. The National Association of Realtors® 2010 Profile of Buyers and Sellers indicate that 89% of home buyers use the internet for information and home searching. The number of home buyers, sellers, and owners using the internet to assist them in making a real estate related decision grows annually.

Although the consequences of enacting SOPA/PIPA into law (on the real estate industry) are unclear, it would be undesirable and unfortunate if readily accessible real estate information were to be unduly restricted by some association’s or real estate company’s claim of content ownership. Learn more about SOPA/PIPA, and provide feedback to our Representatives and Senators.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of January 16, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

Posted in H.R. 3261, internet, PIPA, real estate, S. 968, SOPA | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Buying a home after a foreclosure or shortsale

Posted on January 12, 2012 by Dan

by Dan Krell © 2012
DanKrell.com

If you’ve been through tough financial times, you know that it feels as if your financial picture may never improve. But for most people, experiencing a financial challenge turns out to be just a blip in time; they eventually move on with their life. Given that notion, mortgage lenders know that people endure temporary financial problems through their lives- underwriting guidelines may allow for a past foreclosure, short-sale, or even bankruptcy.

In the old days (prior to desktop underwriting), underwriting was “manual,” meaning that a loan’s approval or denial was decided by a human who reviewed your file. If you were lucky enough to borrow from the local small neighborhood lender, there was a very good chance they knew you, your family, and your financial circumstances (much like the Bailey Building and Loan from “It’s a Wonderful Life”); you had a chance to provide explanations and compensating factors to increase your chance of being approved.

Today, mortgage underwriting is mostly accomplished through automated systems, such as “Desktop Underwriter” and “Loan Prospector.” The automated systems make decisions based on algorithms and do not have the ability to weigh circumstances for negative reports on a credit history. Some lenders may still provide manual underwriting, but borrower requirements have become increasingly strict (including higher minimum credit scores).

Take heart; you still may be able to get a mortgage after a foreclosure, short-sale, or bankruptcy.

For conventional mortgages underwritten with Fannie Mae guidelines, you’ll have to wait at least seven years after a foreclosure. Likewise, you’ll have to wait seven years after a short-sale- unless you can muster a large downpayment (you may be able to qualify: after two years with a 20% downpayment; and four years with a 10% downpayment)! You’ll have to wait four years after a chapter 7 bankruptcy is discharged; and two years after a chapter 13 is discharged (but four years if the chapter 13 is dismissed).

For FHA mortgages, you’ll have to wait at least three years after a foreclosure, two years after a chapter 7 bankruptcy discharge, and one year current on a chapter 13 payment plan (with court approval). A short-sale is differentiated depending if the loan was in default: if the loan was not in default at the time of the short-sale and your previous 12 months payments were timely, you may be eligible for a FHA mortgage; however if the loan was in default prior to short-sale, you will have to wait at least three years before you can qualify.

If you are eligible for VA financing, you will have to wait two years after a foreclosure, short-sale, and chapter 7 bankruptcy (one year into a chapter 13 payment plan with court approval). However, if your foreclosure or short-sale was on a VA mortgage, then your eligibility may be reduced.

If you’re financial issues were caused by circumstances beyond your control, you may be able to get an exception that could shorten the waiting periods. However, you’ll have to provide documentation for the underwriter to review, and not all lenders grant such exemptions.

There are many different mortgage programs, and underwriting guidelines vary. The timelines and requirements posted here are as of time of article; it’s very possible that these guidelines will or have changed. It’s important to talk to a licensed loan officer to know what you need to qualify, as well as which mortgage program will be best for your particular circumstances.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of January 9, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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What’s the return on your investment?

Posted on January 4, 2012 by Dan

by Dan Krell © 2012
DanKrell.com

If you’ve been wavering over the decision to moving into a new home versus renovating your current home; or maybe you’re planning a sale this year and thinking of making improvements to improve the home’s appeal- here’s a resource to help. According to the Remodeling 2011–12 Cost vs. Value Report (www.costvsvalue.com), you can get an idea of how much return on your investment you might get from some of the most popular renovation and addition projects that people undertake.

The 2011-2012 Cost vs Value Report, published annually by Remodeling Magazine, is now available and compares the top remodeling projects and the value that you might recoup at resale. The Cost vs Value ratios were collected for major cities/regions across the country. While project costs were obtained from a construction estimates database compiled by Home Tech Publishing, the project resale values were obtained through a National Association of Realtors® survey of appraisers, agents and brokers.

It is noted that a project Cost vs Value ratio is typically higher in “hotter” real estate markets, and can sometimes exceed 100% (recouping more than was spent on the project at resale). This idea is consistent with the annual Trends in Cost vs Value, which indicates that the average return on investment was higher when the housing market was at the peak in 2005. Of course a major reason for decline in the Cost vs Value ratio from the peak has been the retreat of home prices nationwide. There is speculation that since the national ratio decreased less this year than recent years, the housing market may be bottoming out.

Besides differences in local home prices, differences in regional Cost vs Value ratios can also be attributed to variances in labor and materials costs. Some experts point to a glut of construction workers who are seeking work as a reason for decreased labor costs in some areas; while material costs have not changed much or have become more expensive.

The Cost vs Value Report groups the Washington DC area in the South Atlantic region, which was ranked as the third highest Cost vs Value ratio out of nine regions. The South Atlantic region averaged a ratio of 67.3%, while the highest performing region was Pacific with a ratio of 71.3% was and the lowest performing region was the West North Central with a ratio of 49.5%.

Enough of the technical stuff…
The top Cost vs Value ratio midrange job for the Washington DC area is a garage door replacement, which is estimated to recoup about 93.2% of the cost at resale; followed by a wood deck addition, which is estimated to recoup about 91.3% of the cost at resale (compared to a composite deck addition which is estimated to recoup only 78.8% of the cost).

The top “upscale” project is a fiber-cement siding replacement, which is estimated to recoup 89.7% of the cost at resale (compared to foam backed vinyl siding, which is estimated to recoup only 78% of the cost). The “upscale” garage door replacement is estimated to only recoup 81.4% of the cost (compared to the replacement described above).

Additional projects and descriptions of the projects with costs can be viewed in the Cost vs Value Report. The full Washington DC area renovation/addition Cost vs Value report can be downloaded at costvsvalue.com.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of January 2, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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Real Estate in review 2011

Posted on December 27, 2011 by Dan

by Dan Krell © 2011
DanKrell.com

Since the housing downturn, optimistic predictions the real estate market have been forecasted annually. However, what we have seen in retrospect is that home buyer incentives along with other housing stimulus measures have only acted to maintain an ailing housing sector from deteriorating further. Some still await the market bottom. And although 2011 revealed additional weaknesses in global economic systems as well as the unintentional consequences of policy and regulation, 2011 felt as if it was the most optimistic year in real estate since the downturn.

2011 will be remembered as the year that the National Association of Realtors (NAR) revised existing home sales down 14.3% for estimates between 2007 and 2010 (data released on December 21, 2011 and available on realtor.org). Regardless of the re-benchmarking of data, the NAR has announced that existing home sales in 2011 continue to strengthen as November’s data indicates increased sales from the previous year (really?).

2011 was not the year for home price gains, however. Home prices continued to decline nationwide. However, the Washington DC and Detroit metro areas were the only two regions that posted positive home price gains from the previous year according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

2011 was the year that housing finance reform continued to crawl forward, while Wall Street reform seemed to move quickly with the passage of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Although Dodd-Frank seemed to be focused squarely on Wall Street, it appeared to be far reaching with the requirements such as the 20% down payment Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM).

2011 will be remembered as the year that the Eurozone almost collapsed. The financial déjà-vu that played out over the summer (and is still yet totally resolved, mind you), threatened markets worldwide- including the U.S. housing market. The sharp economic decline, that some braced for, was averted.

2011 was the year that we saw a bifurcated market become increasingly significant. The upper-bracket/luxury home market appeared to stabilize ahead of other housing, as upper-bracket/luxury housing activity remained strong. In fact two of the most expensive homes in Washington, DC sold this year! Reports that Evermay, the DC mansion that was originally listed for $49 Million, sold for $22 Million in July; while Halcyon House was reported to sell a couple of months later for $12.5 Million.

Regardless of the continued efforts of government preparedness campaigns (remember the Center for Disease Control “Zombie Apocalypse” preparedness campaign on blogs.cdc.gov?); 2011 will be remembered as the year that nature made a point about preparedness. If you weren’t concerned about preparing for the Mayan 2012 prophecy; then enduring hurricanes, floods and an earthquake probably had you at least checking your homeowners’ insurance.

As foreclosures declined in 2011, it seemed as if reports of mortgage lender abuses increased. Lenders appeared to be under fire from class action lawsuits as well as attorneys general for lending practices and foreclosure procedures; Bank of America recently reportedly settled a lawsuit for $335 Million.

Alas, the year is almost over; having us searching for fond memories of 2011 and wondering what will 2012 bring. Some look for home prices to make some gains in the coming year (homepricefutures.com), however more importantly you can probably expect the housing market to be glamorized in the pomp and circumstance of the election cycle of 2012.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of December 26, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

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Understanding the revision of home sale statistics

Posted on December 20, 2011 by Dan

by Dan Krell © 2011
DanKrell.com

As the housing market slid, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) was often criticized for producing home sale data that seemed unrealistic. As criticism seemed to peek, NAR announced earlier this year that they were seeking to “re-benchmark” data for counting the number of homes that sold.

According to a December 13th Reuters report (Existing home sales to be revised down from 2007: NAR), the NAR is “revising down” home sales statistics because of double counting, “indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought.” The news sparked cries of “fraud!’ and “told you so’s” across the blogosphere; while some used the news as a marketing opportunity to tout their data as unwavering.

However, according to the NAR’s press release, “Q&A on Re-Benchmarking of Home Sales” (economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org), the main reason for the re-benchmarking is for data drift that occurred during the housing downturn; re-benchmarking is a common aspect of estimating economic data (much like the government’s GDP and employment figure revisions). The re-benchmarking is only for existing home sales and not home prices.

According to Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, data drift is to blame for the over estimates. The monthly existing home sales data that is reported by NAR is compiled from MLS boards across the country. Data drift was revealed when comparisons were made with other available home sales data.

Data drift is a term that describes the change of non-constant variables used in statistical measurements. The data drift in NAR’s existing home sale data was described as being caused by several factors: an increasing reliance on Realtors®, double listings, and inconsistencies across MLS boards.

Although MLS data typically tracks Realtor® home sales data, there are homes that are also sold by home builders and for-sale-by owners (fsbo) which are not typically reflected in the MLS. Dr. Yun believes that some of the data drift is due to the increasing reliance on Realtors® as the market deteriorated to sell homes they typically did not sell in the past (by fsbo’s and builders).

Additionally, it was realized that MLS home sale data was duplicated in some instances. In some regions, it is not unusual for Realtors® to belong to more than one MLS board. In some of those instances, Realtors® often input the data in two or more MLS’s; thus resulting in a duplicate sales.

As technology and markets advance, local and regional MLS boards found themselves changing to increase the quality of the MLS data, as well as expanding to provide service in outlying areas. Although many MLS boards attempt to adhere to consistent data standards and practices, compiled home sale data is not always consistent across all the MLS boards. Additionally, as MLS coverage grew, it could have been logically assumed that the quantity of home sales reported for the growing MLS boards would increase because of the wider coverage.

Additionally, Dr. Yun stated that the census data used to benchmark the MLS data has also changed; the U.S. Census changed the data it collected by changing survey forms. In re-benchmarking, the NAR expects a revision of existing home sales to account for the increase of MLS entries of new homes as well as homes that sold multiple times within a 12-month period (flips). The re-benchmarking should also account for fsbo variances that were not previously adjusted.

The revisions are expected this week.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of December 19, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

Posted in home sales, real estate, statistics | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Post-crisis real estate: What’s in store for the housing market?

Posted on December 15, 2011 by Dan

by Dan Krell © 2011
DanKrell.com

It is often said that history repeats itself. If we want a glimpse of our future, we should look to the past; if we want to see how a post-crisis housing market looks like, we should look to see how a previous housing crisis ended.

According to the Census Bureau (census.gov), the last time homeownership rates declined was 1980-1990. Recent seasonally adjusted homeownership rates have been declining slowly from the all time high of 69.2% reached in the first quarter of 2005. The current seasonally adjusted homeownership rate (for the third quarter of 2011) is 66.1%, which is similar to the homeownership rate of 66.2% reported by the 2000 Census.

Although the country is dealing with some of the same economic issues that was problematic during the early 1980’s; the current real estate market is more akin to like the post S&L crisis of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, when the market was flooded with foreclosures and a coinciding recession impeded an already difficult housing market. Some may remember that during that time home prices decreased and, not unlike recent events, many home owners walked away from their homes (some lenders were sent the keys of recently purchased homes).

Then like today, resulting legislation changed the lending landscape in an effort to ensure such systemic abuse and failure would not happen again. The Census reported that the homeownership rate in 1990 was 64.2%, just shy of the 64.4% homeownership rate reported in 1980.

Additionally, mortgage interest rates were “normalized” post the S&L crisis, making homeownership more affordable than the previous decade. Then, like today, low mortgage rates are touted to make owning a home more attractive than renting.

Also, like that time, the real estate business was changing. Besides changing business models (buyer agency was becoming recognized across the country), large real estate brokers downsized and/or absorbed brokers wanting to get out of the business. Today’s real estate business models have changed to accommodate technology and a vast array of information; additionally, national and regional brokers may begin to see their market share change with the marketplace.

Demographics are always changing. Current demographics indicate a shrinking pool of willing home buyers and sellers. As home prices have dropped over the last several years, many baby boomers who planned to downsize cannot afford to sell their home; additionally, “move-up” home buyers have also decided to make do with their current home longer than they planned as they find that their home’s equity has diminished. Many renters are choosing to continue renting as homeownership is viewed as an anchor; they prefer to be more mobile and not tied down by homeownership until they become more established in their careers.

Before home prices can stabilize, many expect average home prices to drop another 20%. Home prices have (more or less) historically returned to an established “norm” after a housing boom. Home prices are about 26% higher than the “norm” adjusted price, which was established in 1890 as reported by Robert Shiller (Irrational Exuberance; Broadway Books 2nd edition, 2005).

As we move forward, economic and industry related barriers continue to prevent a recovery in the real estate sector. It may be several years before these issues may be managed; however once addressed, confidence in homeownership may begin to increase once again instilling pride and sense of community.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of December 12, 2011. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2011 Dan Krell.

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