Great time to buy a home

great time to buy a home
Should I Buy Now or Wait? (infographic from keepingcurrentmatters.com)

If you’ve been waiting to buy a home, now may be your time to jump into the market.  Maybe you’ve been wary of home prices, or concerned about mortgage rates.  Maybe you’ve been attempting to “time the market” to get a good deal on a home.  Regardless of your reason for waiting to buy a home, you shouldn’t ignore the current market conditions.  It’s as if a perfect storm of home buying conditions is lining up to a great time to buy a home.

The big news is that mortgage interest rates continue to drop.  National average mortgage rates have been declining since the fall, moving closer to the historic bottom!  The May 30th U.S. weekly average for a thirty-year fixed rate mortgage provided by the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey(freddiemac.com) dropped to 3.99 percent.  Mortgage News Daily’s Matthew Graham reported on June 3rd that mortgage rates dropped further (mortgagenewsdaily.com).  Graham’s title “Mortgage Rates Continue to Plummet” is telling.

Although economists express confidence in the economy, they attribute the movement in mortgage interest rates to the current trade wars and bond market activity.  The mortgage industry may also be anticipating a Fed rate cut at the next week’s meeting of the Open Market Committee.

Lower mortgage rates aren’t always a reason to take the plunge into the housing market.  But what about moderating home sale prices?  The FHFA Home Price Index (fhfa.gov) indicates that nationwide average home prices increased only 1.1 percent during the first quarter of 2019!  Compared to the year-over-year 5.1 percent HPI increase, the modest first quarter gain may indicate a more affordable housing market.   Locally, the Montgomery County year-over-year average home sale price only increased 0.2 percent, according to MarketStats by ShowingTime (getsmartcharts.com).  However, the average price per square foot decreased 14.3 percent!

Another factor making it a great time buy a home is the lackluster spring home sales.  Counter to what is expected, home sales have somewhat cooled during the spring.  A May 30th NAR press release titled “Pending Home Sales Trail Off 1.5% in April” indicates that national home sales have been declining.  In fact, the forward-looking indicator based on contract signings dropped 1.5 percent this past month.  The total pending home sales in Montgomery County dropped about 2.8 percent compared to last spring. 

There are increasingly more housing choices.  Although housing supply remains tight, there were about 2.5 percent more new listings this April compared to the same time last year.  Although many of these new listings go quickly, increasing new listings mean that there are more home sellers that are entering the market this year giving you more homes to consider.

Putting all the data points together signify a great time to buy a home.  Housing affordability has increased, partly due in part by increasing family incomes, lower mortgage rates, and moderating home prices.  Home sellers who are listing their homes for sale this spring are adjusting their sale price expectations.  Homes that have been on the market for an extended time may be an opportunity for you to negotiate a lower sale price.  According to mortgage experts, average mortgage rates have “plummeted,” giving you more flexibility and possibly lower housing costs. 

These home buying conditions may not last very long. But before you decide to buy, determine if buying a home is the right choice by consulting a Realtor and other financial professionals.

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/06/08/great-time-to-buy-a-home/

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Overpaying First-time Homebuyers

overpaying first-time homebuyers
First-Time Homebuyers (infographic from nar.Realtor)

If you’re thinking of buying your first home, or have already started the process, take note.  First time home buyers tend to overpay when buying a home.  This is the conclusion of a study recently published in the Journal of Real Estate Research (Under What Circumstances do First-time Homebuyers Overpay? – An Empirical Analysis Using Mortgage and Appraisal Data; 2019).  Although the stunning claim of overpaying first-time homebuyers is worthy of discussion, there’s more to the story than what’s implied. 

Considering housing affordability, authors Jessica Shui and Shriya Murthy tested their hypothesis that first-time homebuyers tend to overpay for their homes compared to repeat home buyers. Their conclusions indicate that the overpayment is a little more than one percent.  It doesn’t sound like much, but the overpayment could be a little more than $3,500 on a $350,000 home purchase.  In addition to discussing overpayment, they found that first-time homebuyers typically buy smaller homes with less amenities (which is not a surprise). 

Are home prices increased because of seller closing cost assistance?  Many first-time homebuyers lack cash and savings and typically ask for seller closing cost assistance.  For most first-time homebuyer purchases, the seller credit is already “baked” into the list price.  Anticipating that the buyer will ask for a closing assistance, the home seller typically will increase their asking price from the outset.  However, some home sale prices are negotiated upward to add seller closing assistance to the list price.

Although Shui and Murthy imply that first-time homebuyers are less savvy than their counterparts, they look toward appraisals as the cause and the solution.  Their results indicate that a majority of first-time homebuyer appraisals provide valuations at contract price, and suggest that appraisers are somewhat “biased” to help the house appraise.  Their solution is for appraisers to be neutral, which they believe would mitigate inflated home prices and help first-time homebuyers renegotiate the contract price. 

Although the study takes a circuitous route to the conclusion, the premise and statistics are presented to make it sound as if appraisers are at fault for overpaying first-time homebuyers .  However, if this is your first home purchase, there are many more factors to consider. 

Take for instance the buyer agent.  Research has demonstrated that most buyer agents don’t act in the best interest of their clients.  Most notable is the research that indicates that seller-paid buyer agent commissions actually increase home sale price (which I cited last week).  When hiring a buyer agent, you should take into account how they view their fiduciary responsibility.  Don’t assume the list price is reasonable.  Have your buyer agent provide unbiased comparables to formulate an offer and negotiating strategy. 

Although you have the right to choose your lender and title company (among other real estate professionals), you may be steered toward a professional affiliated with your buyer broker/agent.  Before deciding, compare costs and ask for references.  (Knowing your rights as a real estate consumer is crucial, see: https://dankrell.com/blog/2014/02/27/respa-empowers-home-buyers-and-consumers/)

Overpaying first-time homebuyers is not just about home sale price.  There are other areas where you may not negotiate well. The home inspection is one of those issues, and can also reveal that the home is need of repair.  You probably would like to negotiate repairs to be completed by licensed contractors.  Sometimes, the seller will offer a credit in lieu of making repairs. Before accepting the credit, make certain the amount is adequate by checking with your licensed contractor.

Finally, understand that buying your first home is emotional.  Don’t fall prey to agent sales tactics.  Stay focused on the facts and use the data to help you formulate your offer to negotiate the best price.

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/06/03/overpaying-first-time-homebuyers

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Home buying process simplified

home buying process
Traditional Home Buying Process

An article by Tracey Barbour for the Alaska Business Monthly (Younger buyers partial to homeownership, home-buyer education, online resources: akbizmag.com; September 2017) describes the growing phenomenon of millennial homeownership.  Not surprisingly, many millennial home buyers are taking advantage of home buyer assistance programs.  Because millennials grew up with the internet, you might think that they would rely less on professionals when home buying.  But the opposite seems to be true.  A majority of millennials prefer to connect with a single point-of-contact when applying for a mortgage (and likely when dealing with real estate agents).  However, millennials do rely on the internet when it comes to understanding the home buying process.  They spend copious amounts of time doing their own research on the home buying process.

It’s not just millennials, but most home buyers are taking advantage of online and digital resources to learn about the home buying process.  Maybe it’s because we live in an era of information overload that home buyers are more aware of the many factors that need to be considered before buying a home.  Regardless, the abundance of “home buying process” resources are helping home buyers decide if they are suited to buy a home, assisting with financial planning of buying a home, finding down payment assistance, mortgage application information, and so much more. 

It used to be that if you were a first-time home buyer, you relied heavily on your real estate agent for the education of the home buying process.  You placed a great deal of trust on their guidance.  The home buying process was envisioned as a step-by-step formula to purchasing a house.  The purpose of explaining the home buying as a process was to reduce the major aspects of home buying into distinct parts and make it seem simple and trouble-free.

The home buying process is a big ball of stuff…

Today, the standard “home buying process” as explained by real estate agents seems nebulous and lacking detail.  Maybe even a little pedestrian.  Maybe it’s because real estate agents tried to make their job easy and have control, but the word “process” incorrectly suggests that there is an exact order that is “one size fits all.”  However, the home buying process is more aptly described by adapting the “timey-wimey” quote of the 2007 episode of Dr. Who (Blink) to say “People assume that home buying is a strict progression of cause to effect, but it is more like a big ball of home buying stuff.”

Moreover, all home buyers are different.  Not just in their preferences, but also in their needs and expectations.  And thus, home buyers will experience the process differently.  One thing I can confirm from eighteen years of listing and selling homes is that all transactions are different. 

But don’t discount the value of the traditional “home buying process” meme.  Consider it a framework of mini-processes that are critical to buying a home.  Each mini-process will be proceeding at its own pace parallel to other processes. 

Choose your buyer agent well.  The role of your buyer agent should go beyond helping you visit homes and writing an offer.  Your agent should be there every step of the way to settlement helping you maneuver through the “big ball of home buying stuff.”  When going through home buying process you can encounter pitfalls and setbacks that are time consuming and emotionally draining.  Your agent should be able to offer guidance on coping and resolving any potential issues.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/05/06/home-buying-process-simplified/

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Buy vs rent market

buy vs rent
Buy vs Rent Housing Market (infographic from keepingcurrentmatters.com)

After last year’s active spring, the housing market’s fall home sale decline shocked many.  Although home sales were on target to outpace the previous year’s activity, the slowdown diminished the spring’s impact.  In fact, the National Association of Realtors (nar.realtor) January 22nd press release indicated a sharp decline of home sales during December.  The 6.4 percent month over month nationwide decline should not have been a surprise because of the season.  However, December’s nationwide 10.3 percent sales decline from the previous year is significant.  The Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors (gcaar.com) indicated that Montgomery County single family home sales decreased 12.2 percent during December. Is this an indication of another buy vs rent market?

Back in August, I predicted and discussed the causes for the fall’s sales slowdown.  Among the issues that contributed to the slowdown include increasing mortgage rates and the continued home sale inventory shortage. However, it’s important to note that although home sales seemed to go to sleep during the early winter, home sale prices continue to increase.  It’s not the 4-5 percent price gain that home owners have become accustomed.  But the 2.9 percent nationwide price increase (2.7 percent increase in Montgomery County) during December is indicative that home ownership is still valued.

Although there are many who are saying it’s now a buyer’s market, it’s not entirely true.  The current housing environment has home buyers under pressure.  Increasing mortgage interest rates are making buying a home more expensive, and there are not many homes from which to choose.  Consequently, motivated home buyers who are eager to buy a home during the winter are pushing back against high home prices.  The reality is that home sellers will remain in the driver’s seat as long as they price their homes correctly.

There is a lot of promise for the spring, but it still depends on many factors (such as inventory).  But the push back on increasing home prices will likely continue, as home buyers are increasingly sensitive to housing costs.  “Buy vs rent” and housing affordability will once again become hot topics this spring. 

Buy vs rent is on the mind of home buyers. Although buyers are in the market to buy, there is no urgency. However, it’s clear that this market is about value.

If you’re a home buyer trying to figure out the market, consulting with a professional Realtor can help you decide if it’s the right time to buy a home.  Trulia’s Rent vs. Buy Calculator (trulia.com/rent_vs_buy/) is a tool that compares the cost of buying to renting a home over time in a specific area.  It can estimate the point at which home buying is better than renting.  However, depending on your budget and area, renting may be a better financial option.  Montgomery County Department of Housing and Community Affairs (montgomerycountymd.gov/DHCA) and the Housing Opportunities Commission (hocmc.org) offers affordable housing programs for first time home buyers and renters.

If you’re a home seller, think back to the 2014 spring housing market when home buyers pushed back at the sharp home price gains of 2013.  It’s recommended that you don’t take home buyers for granted, buyers are just as savvy as you.  Keep in mind that buyers are thinking about “buy vs rent.” Don’t over-price your home, however expect to negotiate the price.  Make your home show its best through preparation and staging.  Stay away from cheap renovations meant to look expensive, this can actually decrease your home’s value.  If you’re selling “by owner,” consider consulting a staging professional to help prepare and stage your home.  If you’re listing your home with a Realtor, your agent should have a strategy to sell for top dollar in this market. 

By Dan Krell. Copyright © 2019.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/01/25/buy-vs-rent-housing-market

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Real Estate Thanksgiving

real estate thanksgiving
A Real Estate Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving is a time to take stock and be thankful.  Although the original Thanksgiving may have had a religious purpose, today’s secular holiday is about traditions.  However, it seems as if the tradition of enjoying a peaceful meal with family and friends has been increasingly difficult over the past few years.  But since the election is over, let’s try to talk about something worthy of discussion (at least until the next election cycle begins), such as real estate and housing. Yes, it’s a “Real Estate Thanksgiving.”

Why shouldn’t we focus on something we all can get behind? There is a good chance that your dinner guests will include someone will be moving next year.  Whether they are buying, selling, or renting a home, someone at the dinner table will be affected by such issues as housing affordability, mortgage rates, and availability of homes.

Things to talk about during your Real Estate Thanksgiving might be about mortgages, home sales, home prices, rent, maintenance, etc.  The topics are seemingly endless.

Talking about mortgages during the Real Estate Thanksgiving.  The current news is about mortgage interest rates.  How high will mortgage rates go?  Housing experts agree that mortgage rates will likely be about 5 percent next year (although the Fed just announced they may hold off on interest rate hikes after spring).  Paying more interest on your mortgage may not be your idea of positively affecting home sales.  However, increasing mortgage rates typically moderate home price growth because of affordability.  Another silver lining of increasing interest rates is a stimulated lending environment.  As a result, mortgage companies will likely further loosen lending requirements, which will increase the home buyer pool.

Real Estate Thanksgiving and home sales could focus on the reasons for the fall slowdown.  Will home sales rebound this spring?  You’re probably aware that home sales have dropped off during the fall.  Major media outlets have grasped the news and created the meme depicting “housing bubble 2.0.”  You can’t really blame them because there are many economists who are projecting bleak home sales to continue through spring.

The main reason for a disappointing 2019 forecast given by many industry insiders is affordability.  I contend that this rationale is shallow and one-dimensional.  There is no doubt that rising interest rates and increasing home prices are on the minds of home buyers.  However, the lack of home sale inventory is a dimension that is often forgotten when discussing home sales and rentals.  The lack of available homes for buyers and tenants to choose has forced many into fierce competition.  The result has been upward pressure on home prices and rents.

You have to also consider the economy at your Real Estate Thanksgiving. The strength of the economy is an aspect affecting the housing market that many haven’t discussed.  Whether you want to admit it or not, the economy is the strongest it has been in decades.  Consumer outlook is optimistic.  Home buyers and renters have expressed confidence about their job prospects too.  Employers are competing for talent, influencing the highest wage increases in over a decade.

Commenting on the economy, First American chief economist Mark Fleming believes that the economy will be a major force in the housing market (How Will a Potential September Rate Hike Impact Existing-Home Sales?; blog.firstam.com; September 18, 2018).  One of the features of his analysis for 2019 is “It’s the Economy and First-Time Home Buyer Demand, Stupid.”  He described a pent-up demand from a wave of millennial of first-time home buyers who will be in the market next year.

Fleming explained that home sales slump during an adjustment period that home buyers undergo when interest rates increase.  The same thing occurred in 2010 when rates increased from 4.5 to 5 percent.  However, the economy was struggling at that time, and home sales were stagnant.  Fleming described First American’s positive housing forecasts overcoming rising interest rates, saying,

“According to our Potential Home Sales Model, the boost from the strong economy and first-time home buyer demand should overcome any downward pressure from rising rates on home sales.”

Original article is published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2018/11/21/real-estate-thanksgiving/

By Dan Krell. Copyright © 2018.

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.