Over the last year and a half, some have talked about an impending foreclosure apocalypse. Home price run up aside, some home buyers have decided to wait for foreclosure inventory to hit the market to get a property at a foreclosure discount.
Although some expect something akin to 2007-2008 foreclosure crisis, they may be disappointed. Experts don’t expect a repeat of the last foreclosure crisis for a number of reasons, including the fact that home equity positions of homeowners are much different today than they were the last time. Additionally, although home sale prices may be moderating, it’s expected that future home price appreciation is still be positive.
Let’s take a look at foreclosure data compiled by Attom Data. The July 22nd press release (Top 10 U.S. Counties with Highest Foreclosure Rates in June 2022; attomdata.com) indicates that, “there were a total of 90,139 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings in Q2 2022. That figure was up 15 percent from the previous quarter and up 165 percent from a year ago. The report noted that national foreclosure activity total in Q2 2022 was 68 percent below the pre-recession average of 278,912 per quarter from Q1 2006 to Q3 2007 – making Q2 2022 the 23rd consecutive quarter with foreclosure activity below the pre-recession average.”
So basically, foreclosures have increased. However, the number of foreclosures is nowhere near the amount prior to the great recession. Even though the number of foreclosures will likely not impact the overall housing market, there are buyers looking for the foreclosure discount.
If you’re looking for a foreclosure discount, read the recent research by Ralph B. Siebert published in the Journal of Real Estate Research (2022, Vol. 44 Issue 1, p1-28). The study revealed where deeper discounts may be found when buying a foreclosed property. Siebert’s analysis indicated that discounted foreclosed property depends on the metro and/or regional housing market where the house is located, as well as the home’s value position relative to the market segment.
Siebert’s study included transactions in Florida and Indiana from 2000 to 2020. His results indicated that foreclosure discounts were higher in Indiana than Florida. Also, Indiana foreclosed homes in the lesser value segment lost the most value, whereas similar value segments of foreclosed homes in Florida did not lose as much. He also found other differences that resulted in higher discounts as well.
If you’re looking for foreclose discounts, consider the comparing market locations and value segments. Buyer beware, however, it’s likely that the home will likely need repair and/or renovation. So, although the acquisition of the property may be at a discount, the cost of bringing it up to your standard may be costly. Do due-diligence, and consult with licensed real estate professionals to assist in making home buying decisions.
By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2022
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