With home prices hitting record highs in many markets, it’s no surprise that “real estate bubble” talk is making the rounds again. But is today’s market truly on the brink of a collapse like we saw in 2008? Although the answer is likely to be “no,” there is some nuanced data to consider.
Is Another Real Estate Bubble on the Horizon
Unlike the crash of 2008, today’s lending environment is far more regulated. Buyers are generally more qualified, with stronger credit profiles and larger down payments. Inventory continues to be historically low, and demographic demand (highlighted by Millennials entering peak homebuying years) is keeping upward pressure on prices.
That said, increased interest rates over the past year have cooled affordability, causing pricing corrections in some overheated markets. While a nationwide crash seems unlikely in the near term, there are several regional markets that could see sharper declines, especially where prices have far outpaced income growth.
Real Estate Cycles
According to Ted Nicolais, there are defined cycles to the real estate market. Nicolais maps out the cycles as follows:
The first phase is the “recovery.” Home prices are at the bottom, and demand increases. Available real estate units decrease while economic activity increases.
The second phase is the “expansion.” Housing inventories dwindle, there is little is available to buy, and finding a rental becomes difficult. Until new/additional inventory is added, price growth accelerates. During a real estate boom, people are willing to pay escalating prices because of limited inventory, and the prospect of “future growth”
Phase three is “hyper supply.” When housing demand begins to be satisfied, inventories fist stabilizes and then swells. Price growth slows.
Phase four is the “recession.” Occupancy rates and home prices fall.
Things to consider:
- Housing inventory is still below average.
- Mortgage interest rates are already declining from recent highs. Some experts have talked about future Fed rate cuts.
- The National Association of Realtors June Housing snapshot indicated a 2 percent median increase in home prices.
The Bottom Line
It’s true, the housing market does feel different than it has over the last few years. But it’s unlikely that we are headed for a full blown bubble bust like we saw in 2008. And given the indicators, housing will continue to cycle through the expansion phase in the near future.
Housing has been in the midst of a market adjustment from the extremes of recent years, which is not a full-blown bubble burst. For buyers, this could mean more negotiating room. For sellers, pricing strategy will be key in the months ahead. Staying informed and working with an experienced agent can help you navigate whatever comes next.
By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2025
Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.