Surprise findings about causes of foreclosure

Politics, Wall Street, predatory lending, and bad loans are just a few of the generalizations that the public has attributed to rising foreclosure rates. However, a Florida Realtors® research study on foreclosures found a much more complex story.

Earlier this month, the Florida Realtors® announced the findings of their “Face of Foreclosure” research project (floridarealtors.org). The project was designed to establish the impact of foreclosure on the Florida housing market and home owners, as well as to assist Florida’s Legislature to decide what intervention (if any) is needed by pinpointing the causes of foreclosure.

The report cited a positive correlation between unemployment and foreclosure in the Florida cities that were hardest hit by the foreclosure crisis. However, the study’s interviews of families who are in foreclosure did not reveal one cause for foreclosure; the study revealed a trend of multiple factors as the cause of their financial challenges.

In the April 6th 2010 press release, Florida Realtors® vice president of public policy, John Sebree, was quoted as saying that “Contrary to what some researchers have argued, many Florida homeowners were not driven into foreclosure by simply being trapped in bad loans, or losing their jobs or taking pay cuts.”…”In most cases, it was a combination of rising living costs, unemployment or decreased pay, health issues and other factors that caused homeowners to get into trouble. Simple answers and trite political responses just don’t tell the whole story.”

You can view the full report on the Florida Realtors® research webpage (floridarealtors.org/Research), click on the title “2010 Face of Foreclosure.”

by Dan Krell © 2010

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Inquiring about the financial crisis

by Dan Krell © 2010

If you’re still wondering about the cause of the financial crisis, don’t worry- the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) is [still] looking into it. The Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009 established the FCIC to examine the causes of the financial and economic crisis within the United States and submit its findings to the President on December 15th, 2010. The Commission is comprised of ten congressionally appointed members who are “prominent private citizens with significant experience in banking, market regulation, taxation, finance, economics, housing, and consumer protection.”

The Commission is charged with twenty-two areas of inquiry. Some of those areas that are related to the housing market include: monetary policy and credit; the concept that certain institutions are “too-big-to-fail”; fraud and abuse in the financial sector, including fraud and abuse towards consumers in the mortgage sector; legal and regulatory structure governing investor and mortgagor protection; financial institution reliance on numerical models (including risk models and credit ratings); the legal and regulatory structure of the United States housing market; lending practices, and securitization (including transferring risk). To do its job, the Commission is given the authority to hold hearings, issue subpoenas, and refer anyone who violated the law (with regard to the financial crisis) to the U.S. or State Attorney General.

Although Last week’s testimony of former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan made headlines, not only because of the sometimes seemingly antagonistic questioning and defensive responses, the back and forth garnered the highly publicized “Greenspan sound bites” such as: “congress has amnesia” and “I was right 70% of the time.” As his testimony came to a close, a power outage dimmed the lights and disabled the microphones; which the Chairman of the FCIC attributed to Greenspan’s “lights out performance.”

Throughout his testimony and questioning, Mr. Greenspan cited a string of temporal events that may have led to the crisis, which included: higher affordable housing goals set in 2000; huge accumulations of subprime loans by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (to meet the new goals); and the increased European demand for subprime financed Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO).

According to Mr. Greenspan’s testimony, subprime loans were not a major problem before 2002 because they were a small sector of the market. However, after new affordable housing guidelines were set, the subprime market grew rapidly (which may have also been the cause of rapid appreciation of home prices). He stated that if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had not accumulated the huge amounts of subprime loans (the accumulation was a contrast to their intended function); they probably would not have failed. Additionally, those subprime loans were graded “AAA” (rather than subprime) which probably increased the European appetite for the CDO’s (because of the unusual high yields for the grade). Mr. Greenspan differentiated the recent financial crisis from the Great Depression by saying that the recent financial crisis was “the greatest financial crisis” due to short term availability of funds; but the Great Depression was “the greatest economic crisis.”

So far, the FCIC has held two hearings and a forum of academic experts who presented working papers of their research on the causes that led up to the crisis.

Originally published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2010/04/13/inquiring-about-the-financial-crisis-the-financial-crisis-inquiry-commission-is-on-the-job/

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2010 Dan Krell

Home builders use technology to design efficient homes

A couple of months ago I wrote about what to expect from your future home (Your Future Home ). The following video from MarketWatch (www.MarketWatch.com) illustrates how home builders are looking to assist home owners to build more efficient and cost effective homes. The use of technology allows you to tap into your creativity to create a functional home that is not only pleasing to the eye but easy on the pocket book.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Copyright © 2010 Dan Krell

Check your ego and get out of your way

by Dan Krell © 2010

If you’re going to sell your home this spring, “check your ego.” Having a high self esteem is a good thing; however, having an over-inflated worth of your home can cost you money and aggravation.

Listing your home at a realistic price can decrease the home’s “days on market,” and reduce the probability that you would have to significantly lower the list price down the road. Last year, many home owners who were unwavering in their belief that there home was worth more than what the market would bear found that selling their homes took longer and ultimately accepted a price much less than they had hoped. Other home owners who were determined to sell at the higher price eventually exasperatedly withdrew the listing.

Last week’s release of the Standard and Poor’s/ Case-Shiller Home Price Index for January 2010 (standardandpoors.com) revealed that home prices continue to fall; although the silver lining is that the rate of price depreciation is not as steep as it was a year ago. The composite index of 20 metro areas is down 0.4% from December 2009 to January 2010 and down 0.7% from a year ago; nationwide average home prices are at 2003 levels. The Washington DC metro area fared much better than other metro areas; Washington metro area home prices only fell 0.2% from December 2009 to January 2010, however home prices increased 3.5% from the same time last year!

Statistics reported by the Greater Capital Association of Realtors (GCAAR.com) support the findings of the S&P/ Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Average home prices for single family homes in Montgomery County fell between December 2009 ($480,931) and January 2010 ($451,255). Data compiled and reported by the Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. (MRIS.com) also substantiate these data, such that the median area home prices decreased comparing data from January 2009 to January 2010. However, home prices slightly increased in February 2010.

Many home owners remain confused about the unstable real estate market due to ambivalence caused by the reality of a downward market conflicted with their own value assessment of their home. Needless to say, home owners may find it more difficult to come to terms with the reality that today’s depreciated home prices have fallen to 2003/2004 levels (as indicated by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index), especially if they attempted to sell their home last year. Additionally, home owners are disserved by over-aggressive real estate agents who will say anything to get the listing; including telling the home owner that the home can sell at a much higher price, when the comps clearly suggest otherwise.

Obviously, selling your home is ultimately your decision. Since the decision to sell may hinge on many factors including the sale price, consulting with several different Realtors about neighborhood comparables can give you a good command over the neighborhood data as well as a realistic range of sale prices. If another factor of your sale is the purchase of another home, remember that real estate is relative such that the home you may purchase may be just as good of a buy as your home will be to another home buyer.

Clearly you should not sell your home if you are content living there. But if you are in the position to sell your home and want a successful sale- get out of your way.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of April 5, 2010. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2010 Dan Krell

A continuation of a bifurcated market or signs of stability?

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index was released last week, revealing a reduced decline of annual data in the composite 10 and composite 20 indices. The Washington DC metro area index showed a slight decrease of home process from December 2009 through January 2010; although showed an increase of 3.5% compared to the same time a year ago.

The index compiles and tracks home price data in twenty metro regions across the country. The data has been the “gold standard” of home price indicators for many years. However, the index revealed last fall and winter the emerging trend- the two tier market. Does the existing peak to valley ratio of the index indicate an ongoing trend of the two tier market, having distressed properties selling for much less than owner re-sales? Or is it an indicator that price differences between distressed properties and owner re-sales are becoming less significant?

As the spring market is gearing up, many home owners are preparing to list (or re-list) their homes for sale hoping for a chance to get top dollar; many home owners have decided to wait until conditions are better for them. However, those selling have most likely come to terms with the fact that home prices are on average equivalent to 2004/2003 home prices. Many are eager to see if last August’s “bump” in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index was aberrant due to a slumped market or a trend of the bifurcated market.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2010

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.