Author: Dan Krell

Posted on

DANGER Report not a mea culpa – but forecasts issues affecting housing market

real estateNews about the D.A.N.G.E.R. Report is making the media rounds, but maybe the excitement is more hyperbole than news. And contrary to the recent hype, the D.A.N.G.E.R. Report is not a mea culpa by the National Association of Realtors®.

D.A.N.G.E.R. is an acronym for “Definitive Analysis of Negative Game changers Emerging in Real estate.” The Report was commissioned by the National Association of REALTORS® as that is part of the NAR Strategic Thinking Advisory Committee’s attempt to identify issues affecting the future of the industry; the Swanepoel | T3 Group researched and authored the Report, which identifies trends and offers the residential real estate industry an impact assessment.

Described as a “…mix of yesterday, today and tomorrow…” the Report is intended to assist those in the industry to “…anticipate the forces taking shape that we can’t yet see;” by pointing out possible challenges, threats, and opportunities. Although the result is meant to “inspire” discourse, the reception has so far been mixed. NAR CEO Dale Stinton was quoted to say, “The D.A.N.G.E.R. Report is like 50 things that could keep you up at night. It isn’t a strategic plan. It isn’t telling you to do anything. It’s 50 potential black swans. It’s for your strategic planning processes. Digest it and cuss and fuss and decide whether it’s right or wrong…” (Anrea V. Brambila; ‘Danger’ report alerts industry to 50 biggest threats; inman.com; May 15, 2015).

One issue highlighted in the Report that has attracted the media attention is agent competency and ethics. The use of Report quotes such as, “the real estate industry is saddled with a large number of part-time, untrained, unethical, and/or incompetent agents…” is as if some in the media are saying “we told you so.” But the truth is that competency does not guarantee ethical behavior, and vice versa; the answers, like the issues, are more complex than you might expect – and do not assure advancement.

Like many of the issues reported in D.A.N.G.E.R., concern about agent competency and ethics is not new. The National Association of Realtors® has for years tried to influence public opinion of Realtors® and the industry by publicly promoting the high ethical standards by which Realtors® are held. Many are unaware that a code of ethics was adopted in 1913 by the association, and has since strived to instill and maintain a high level of integrity in the field. And yet with such emphasis on ethics, you might expect that public opinion would be much higher, but the limited research on consumer perception of ethics is mixed at best. And according to one study, consumers consider price, quality, and value more important than ethical criteria in purchase behavior (The myth of the ethical consumer – do ethics matter in purchase behaviour? The Journal of Consumer Marketing. 2001;18(7),560-577).

The D.A.N.G.E.R. Report may have missed the mark by not acknowledging that the industry’s transformation over many decades has been mainly influenced and driven by market forces, regulation, and technology. Discussing “black swans” with regard to these three areas may have been more valuable and practical to professionals and consumers.

However, as much as we try to identify unforeseen events; they are just that – unexpected and unanticipated. Take for instance the extreme changes that have occurred over the last ten years in the real estate industry – much of which were due to market forces, regulation, and technology.

Google+
Copyright © Dan Krell

If you like this post, do not copy; you can:
reference the article,
like it at facebook
or re-tweet.

Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism Detector
Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Posted on

The cost of doing nothing – deferred maintenance and home values

HousesIf you want to have one of the faster home sales in the area, you’re probably going to have to wait until you die. According to a 2012 study, “estate sales” sell faster than other homes. Benefield, Rutherford, & Allen’s study compared time on market and price of estate sales to regular sales, and quantified what many ostensibly know: estate sales sell about 3.4% faster and about 3.6% less than other homes (Justin, D. Benefield, C. Rutherford Ronald, and T. Allen Marcus. “The Effects of Estate Sales of Residential Real Estate on Price and Marketing Time.” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 45.4 (2012): 965-81).

Although the study is one of many recent studies raising awareness about real estate outcomes in our aging population, one of the main considerations for the rapid time frame and discounted sale price is deferred maintenance; and the issue of postponing home repairs and updates is prevalent among all age groups.

Before Kermit Baker wrote “The Return of Substandard Housing” for the Harvard Joint Center of Housing Studies, it was not quite known how much less home owners spent on home maintenance during and immediately after the Great Recession. However, the 2012 study indicated that “improvement spending” decreased 28% between 2007 and 2011, which essentially “erased” such spending during the housing boom (housingperspectives.blogspot.com).

And as the economy slowly improves and home prices increase, you might expect that home owners will reduce deferred maintenance and once again spend on home improvements. According to Craig Webb (Remodeling Activity Rose Again in 1Q, RRI Shows Nation remains on track to hit record remodeling pace this fall; May 18, 2015; remodeling.hw.net), the Residential Remodeling Index (RRI) increased 1.4% in the first quarter of 2015 compared to the previous quarter, indicating that improvement spending is indeed on the rise (albeit below the 2007 peak).

But what’s the cost of doing nothing? Deferred home maintenance is cumulative, and its effects can be wide ranging. For many, having put off home maintenance and repairs has impacted home sales in recent years, and may continue to be a factor in years to come. Although average home prices have increased, many home owners have found that a lack of home maintenance, repairs and updates over the years is an impediment to selling their homes at higher prices – or even at all.

A mindset exists among many home owners, and even real estate agents, that years of deferred maintenance can be overcome with some updating and minor repairs just before a home sale. And although improvements will certainly make your home more appealing to home buyers, it won’t necessarily increase your home’s value as much as you think (or as much as you’ve been told).

Before undergoing any project, crunch the numbers and determine the value of your repairs/updates, and how that might realistically affect your estimated sale price. Remodeling Magazine’s annual Cost vs. Value Report (costvsvalue.com) can give you an idea of the return-on-investment (ROI) for improvement projects. Getting back to your expectation of adding value – most improvement projects will only return a fraction of the cost in today’s market.

If you are making improvements, you should consider hiring reputable, licensed contractors who are familiar with the permitting process and building code requirements; because ROI is not always determined by the amount spent on the project, but on the quality of workmanship as well.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2015/06/12/the-cost-of-doing-nothing-deferred-maintenance-and-home-values/

Google+
Copyright © Dan Krell


Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Posted on

Survey may indicate buyers need attentive agents

buyer agentA recent MarketWatch report indicated that the top four reasons why millennials are not buying homes include: lack of down payment; student loan debt; credit card debt; and not knowing where to start. The reasons per se may not surprise you; however, regional differences are interesting.

Daniel Goldstein’s May 30th report (Millennials in Texas and in California reject home ownership for vastly different reasons; marketwatch.com) tries to tie together a recent Carrington Mortgage survey and the lack of homeownership participation among millennials. Since millennials are supposed to be the heir apparent to the U.S. economy; he ponders about why there is only a 38% homeownership rate (according to CoreLogic) among millennials when mortgage interest rates are at record lows. The figure pales in comparison to the homeownership rate of 52% of the same age group in 1980 – at a time of double digit interest rates!

Millennials in the western region of the U.S. seem to be mostly concerned about down payment. This may be due to the region including many high cost metro areas. Additionally, the western region has seen much of the home price growth and hot markets we hear about in the media.

Midwestern region millennials are mostly concerned about student loan debt, which has a direct impact on their debt-to-income ratio. The midwestern region has some of the lowest cost of living areas, which influences wages and ability to qualify for a mortgage.

The top concern for millennials in the northeast is credit card debt. And while having credit card debt is not necessarily a bad thing (as long as credit is not maxed out and payments are timely); many do not understand the general concepts of credit reports, and the relation between credit scores and credit card debt.

Whereas most of the country seems to be concerned about wages, savings, and debt; southern millennials (which includes Maryland, DC, and Virginia) are reported to be generally stumped about the home buying process.

What millennials reported in the survey is what generally daunts first time home buyers – the overwhelming process of buying a home. Although not considered rocket science, buying your first home can be intimidating. And it’s not just because it is one of the most expensive purchases of a lifetime; but also because the process is multifaceted with many possible pitfalls. Recent industry trends have also made the process less personal, leaving many home buyers to “figure it out” on their own.

Millennials’ concern about the home buying process may not necessarily be economics as it is about the industry itself. It may be a telling sign that “continuity of care” in the real estate industry is lacking, and should have many professionals revisit the client centered business model.

Although recent industry trends favor real estate agent teams as a means to high volume home sales; buyers who work with a team may not necessarily be overly satisfied with communication and support. Millennials and other first time home buyers may be seeking seasoned real estate agents and loan officers who are able to listen to their needs and concerns, while being able to educate and provide guidance. Much like having the ability to talk to a physician directly, rather than communicating through messaging services and technicians; having a single Realtor® who can promptly answer phone calls and emails, may greatly increase satisfaction and quality of service.

Google+
Copyright © Dan Krell

If you like this post, do not copy; you can:
reference the article,
like it at facebook
or re-tweet.

Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism Detector
Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Posted on

Hot regional housing markets change reliance on MLS listings

Homes

Good news for home sellers, in most US regions. Tuesday’s news release from S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices indicates a nationwide home price gain. The 10-city and 20-city composites continue to show home price gains, as the composites realized a 4.7% and 5.0% year over year gain respectively (month over month gains were 0.8% and 0.9% respectively). The nearby Washington DC region was not as robust as the other US regions in the composite, however, as home prices gained about 1% year over year and about 0.8% month over month (us.spindices.com).

The S&P/Case-Shiller index seems to be in agreement with the U.S. House Price Index Report issued by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (fhfa.gov), which indicated that national home prices gained 1.3% during the first quarter of 2015. However here in Maryland, home prices did not fare as well with a 0.38% decline year over year.

Hot markets in western regions of the US, such as Washington, are making news besides strong home prices. In one of the hottest markets in the nation, a Seattle Washington broker has decided to drop out of their MLS. Counter intuitive to the idea of maximizing listing exposure, Rob Smith of the Puget Sound Business Journal reported that Quill Realty is dropping out of their local MLS (Here’s why this Seattle realty company just ditched the MLS; bizjournals.com, May 18, 2015).

Instead of MLS placement, Quill intends to place listings on a number of websites, including Zillow, Redfin, and Realtor.com. The rationale is that sellers will save money from the 1% commission that is charged by Quill; while buyers of Quill’s listings “… will become responsible for working out a financial arrangement with their own broker.”

Of course, this is not an entirely new idea. There have been a number of seller oriented business models that have been devised over the years; with new variations popping up during hot markets. Many discount brokers and MLS placement services, which have survived the housing downturn, have continued to market their business model successfully.

Innovative or not, hot markets tend to make brokers become more protective of their listings by seeking ways to make them proprietary. Low housing inventory in some markets, along with increasing home prices and buyer competition can make a home listing a hot commodity. I will remind of the recent report indicating that pocket listings are on the rise. Pocket listings are listings kept out of the MLS and shown only to a select network of contacts and clients. And although pocket listings are often associated with luxury real estate, pocket listings in hot markets can occur across all price ranges because of the increased home buyer competition.

In response to recent trends, several regional Realtor® groups and brokers have been formulating a nationwide consumer MLS to provide the consumer with up to date relevant information (brokerpublicportal.com). Board member of the Broker Public Portal, Robert Moline (Home Services America) stated, “There is a tremendous amount of support and momentum throughout the MLS and brokerage communities to create a new choice for how and where to display their listings…”

And even though many home sellers are taking advantage of a seller’s market in their respective markets, home buyers are becoming increasingly resourceful as well. Many buyers are learning how to find home for sale in places other the MLS. Besides alternative listing websites, many buyers are also relying on neighborhood listservs (internet email lists) and internet groups for home sale notifications.

Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism Detector

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2015


Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Posted on

Don’t skip the home inspection – old, new, or renovated

homesLike the 49ers seeking gold in California, real estate investors have flocked to D.C. in recent years to seek their fortunes. As home values rebounded, many distressed homes were snapped up by investors with the intention of renovating/rehabbing, and then selling them. For many home buyers, these “flipped” houses have become home; however, for a few, the dream has become a nightmare.

Martin Austermuhle reported on WAMU (A Dream Home Becomes a Nightmare; wamu.org) about D.C.’S house flipping environment and highlighted one family’s dream turned nightmare. Characterized as a “cautionary tale of home-buying in a hot real estate market,” the story was basically about how rotted wood in the porch has led to a multimillion dollar law suit between the purchasers and the rehabber.

If you haven’t received the memo, “house flipping” is once again a bad thing – or is it? Unfortunately, “flipping” has become synonymous with fraud and scams because of the attention that it received in the mid 1990’s (as the result of widespread fraud and scams that involved flipped homes). At that time, several cities (Baltimore being one) were known for flipping scams because of the investors’ ability to purchase a home for very little money and turn it around for a big profit.

Although, there should be nothing wrong with buying a distressed property, rehabbing and selling it (aka home flipping); flipping has generally become the term used when there is an accusation of fraud or con involved with a rehabbed home. During the 1990’s, flipped homes were the center of many mortgage fraud cases that took advantage of lenders by providing false income statements, fraudulent credit reports, and/or fraudulent appraisals. In these cases, the investor was not the only scammer; as accomplices often included: loan officers, appraisers, title agents, real estate agents, and even “straw” buyers.

Many home buyers were also scammed into buying homes in disrepair that were represented as being rehabbed. And believe it or not, some of these homes were nothing but shells (e.g., gutted).

In the aftermath of the flipping crisis of the 1990’s: lenders wrote off hundreds of millions of dollars, lawsuits were filed, and a movement grew to educate home buyers about the need to conduct home inspections. Mortgage underwriting changed to safeguard against future scams with the introduction of title seasoning (length of ownership).

Legitimate rehabbing of distressed properties has always been a viable industry; and can transform an eyesore into a livable home. However, just because renovations have been made to an old home doesn’t mean that it is now brand new!

When buying a home, you must do your due diligence regardless of the age of the home. A thorough home inspection should be conducted, even on new homes. Although home inspectors don’t have x-ray vision, the technology they employ can sometimes make it seem as if they do. Besides the routine identification of deferred maintenance, home inspectors can typically identify issues with renovations and can usually identify code violations. Furthermore, you should check permits when considering a home that has been renovated or expanded. Many jurisdictions offer online services to search permits; locally, the Montgomery County Department of Permitting Services has such a search portal (permittingservices.montgomerycountymd.gov).

If you’re buying a home, you might also consider working with an experienced Realtor®. A seasoned professional is not only knowledgeable about neighborhood price trends and disclosures; many are skilled to work in tandem with the home inspector to negotiate repairs.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2015/05/22/dont-skip-the-home-inspection-old-new-or-renovated/

Google+
Copyright © Dan Krell


Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Proudly powered by WordPress