About Dan Krell

November 20, 2014December 13, 2022

Why real estate and home sales will rebound in 2015

The recent stumble of the housing market recovery has been a head scratcher for many. Surely low interest rates and an abundant number of homes for sale should have been incentive for any home buyer. But alas, many have been disappointed by the 2014 housing trends; even with sparse anecdotes of quick sales and bidding wars. However, many are optimistic about the housing market for 2015 because of the combination of low mortgage interest rates, increased access to credit, and moderating home prices – which could transform reluctant “looky loos” into eager home buyers.

Don’t count on low mortgage interest rates, per se, to incentivize home buyers. Although interest rates have been historically low since shortly after the financial crisis, it seems to not have been an incentive on its own to purchase homes. Industry experts have tried to pinpoint the timing of rate increases since rates first dipped below 5% in 2010. And even though rates were anticipated to have jumped when the Fed tapered its asset purchasing program this year, rates continue to be relative to historical lows. The average mortgage interest rate according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (freddiemac.com) is 4.01% (as of November 13^th); yet home sale volume continues to lag behind 2013 figures.

Very low interest rates may continue into 2015. Back in 2012, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee indicated that interest rates would remain “exceptionally” low through 2014. Fast forward to September’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting; the October Fed press release (federalreserve.gov) reported the FOMC maintaining the 0 to ¼ percent target rate, even for a “considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program…”

On the other hand, loosening mortgage credit underwriting could help some would-be home buyers; but it is unclear who would take advantage of such programs, and how it will help them. Tightened credit and underwriting standards that resulted from the financial crisis, along with government intervention in the form of the Dodd – Frank legislation, created regulation and stringent lending standards (such as comprehensive validation of financial standing and strict adherence to debt to income ratios); which critics point to as having hampered lenders from making loans. However, some lenders are beginning to introduce less restrictive mortgage programs, which may accommodate the self employed and those with high student loan debt.

Of course, home prices have been a point of contention between home buyers and sellers for a number of years. Home sellers seeking higher prices are sometimes thwarted by home buyers looking for affordability and value. The seeming home price tug-of-war that favored home sellers in 2013, appeared to turn back in favor of home buyers during late summer of 2014. The October 28^th release of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (housingviews.com) reported further deceleration of home price appreciation. The National Index showed a 5.1% annual gain, which is lower than the 5.6% annual gain reported in July. The Washington DC region saw a 3.1% annual increase; but a 0% change in August, compared to the 0.1% change in July.

Additionally, the 15% increase in national foreclosure activity, as reported by RealtyTrac (realtytrac.com), could be a wildcard for home prices. It remains to be seen if the 26% increase in foreclosure activity in the D.C. metropolitan area from the previous year is a trend, or just a result of lenders clearing “shadow” inventory.

Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

November 14, 2014November 23, 2021

Narcissistic real estate agents?

A common criticism of real estate agents is that they are manipulative and often focused on their own needs rather the home buyer or seller. Could it be that real estate agents are narcissists? Samuel Lopez De Victoria, Ph.D. describes a narcissist in the World of Psychology blog (psychcentral.com/blog) as someone who is preoccupied with “self, personal preferences, aspirations, needs, success, and how he/she is perceived by others.” How can you tell when you are dealing with narcissistic real estate agents?

In an industry that relies on self promotion, it’s not as easy as you might think to spot narcissistic real estate agents. They initially don’t often come across as manipulative or self centered. Dr. Lopez De Victoria describes. Extreme narcissists as being able to portray themselves in many ways to attract others to get what they want. They will seem likeable and be the “nice person.” They may often seem to be the “proper diplomatic” person. They often appear to care about you, but it is not authentic empathy. And of course, they are often a charming person.

Dr. Lopez De Victoria says that having some amount of narcissism is normal and even healthy. So even though most agents are not extreme narcissists, it does not address the remorse expressed by some about the agents they chose. Even though industry experts recommend interviewing several agents before buying or listing a home, the majority of home buyers and sellers do not. According to the National Association of Realtors® 2014 Highlights of the Profile of Buyers and Sellers (realtor.rog), 70% of home sellers and about 66% of home buyers only contacted one agent before listing or buying a home. Regardless of the remorse expressed by home buyers and sellers about their agent, maybe they would have chosen to work with other agents if given the chance.

Although interviewing several agents before you buy or sell a home won’t eliminate all remorse over your choice of agent, it can certainly increase the probability of your satisfaction. If you choose to interview several agents, you might consider having a conversation about their experience, knowledge, and expertise. Additionally, knowledge about the local neighborhood market and surrounding neighborhoods is extremely important because market trends are hyper-local. You should also talk about the agent’s specialized experience, if your buying or selling situation is unique.

You should also ask about the agent’s limitations. This is an area where some agents get themselves into trouble is by not knowing, or are unwilling to disclose their limitations to potential buyers or sellers. By discussing the agent’s limitations, you can understand what the agent can and cannot do as well as know when the agent will refer you to other professionals for advice; this can also frame your expectations.

To get some insight into the agent’s way of thinking and service, you might consider asking atypical questions too! Surely an agent is more than happy to talk about their accomplishments, number of sales, and even name drop a past client or two; but what about the listings that didn’t sell? Have they been fired by a client?

The ratio of expired to sold listings can be telling; is the agent focused on servicing your listing or is it a “numbers game” for them? If an agent is open to sharing those figures, ask for reasons why the listings didn’t sell; was it about price or the marketing? If an agent has a history of being fired, it could be a possible indication of issues with the quality of service, including over-promising and not meeting expectations.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2014/11/14/narcissistic-real-estate-agents/

November 6, 2014July 5, 2019

Real estate changed by internet

The National Association of Realtors® annual Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers is characterized as being a survey of home buyers and sellers that reveals “demographics, housing characteristics and the experience of consumers in the housing market, including the role that real estate professionals play in home sales transactions (nar.realtor). The release of the Highlights of the 2014 Profile of Home buyers and Sellers on November 3^rd by NAR provides insight into home buyer and seller behavior. I compare a small sample of data from three Profiles that demonstrates how real estate changed. Some things have changed, and some things have stayed the same.

The recent lack of first time home buyer participation is one of the issues that experts point to as holding back a full housing recovery, and has been highlighted by the 2014 Profile of Home buyers and Sellers. Only thirty-three percent of home buyers surveyed in 2014 were first time buyers, which the NAR points out as being below the “historical norm of forty percent among primary residence buyers.” Compared to 2003, NAR reported that forty percent of home buyers were first time home buyers. However, fifty percent of home buyers reported being first time buyers during 2010, which is most likely due to the first time home buyer tax credit that was offered at the time to stimulate home sales.

The 2014 survey revealed that home buyers searched on average for 10 weeks and viewed 10 homes; which is reduced from the 12 week average search indicated the year prior. The 2010 report also indicated a 12 week average search, looking at an average of 12 homes. But these home search stats are a far cry from the 8 week average search time viewing 10 homes reported in 2003.

As you might have expected, home buyer use of the internet has grown. In the 2014 survey, ninety-two percent of buyers reported using the internet in some way in the process. The first step for forty-three percent of home buyers was to look at properties online; while only twelve percent of home buyers initially used the internet for information about the home buying process. The use of mobile applications has significantly increased as technology allowed; fifty percent of buyers reported using mobile websites or applications. Compare this to 2010, when about ninety percent of home buyers reported using the internet; and in 2003 when only forty-two percent of home buyers reported searching for homes online.

Rather than eliminating real estate agents, the internet has changed the relationship between agents, buyers and sellers. Ninety-eight percent of buyers in 2014, who used an agent, viewed them as being a useful source of information. Eighty eight percent of surveyed buyers indicated they used an agent to purchase their home, compared to eighty-one percent in 2010, and eighty-six in 2003.

Ninety-one percent of surveyed sellers in 2014 reported their homes were listed on the MLS, but eighty-eight percent had assistance from real estate agents. Only nine percent of surveyed sellers sold “by-owner.” The 2010 seller stats are consistent with the 2014 Profile; while the 2003 survey indicated eighty-three percent of home sellers used an agent’s assistance to sell their home.

There are differences between buyers and sellers also. Among the differences in how they choose their agent: the 2014 survey indicated that forty-four percent of home buyers, compared to thirty-eight percent of home sellers, found their agent by a referral through a friend or family.

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2014/11/06/how-home-buyer-and-sellers-have-changed-and-remained-the-same/

By Dan Krell
© 2014

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October 30, 2014July 5, 2019

When Selling a Home – stay away from gimmicks & listen to buyers

You’ve probably heard a story or two about a home that was priced very low to “create a buzz” and illicit a bidding war. And in fact, there was a 2012 article in a local newspaper about such a sale in DC that touted the rebounding housing market. But guess what? A recently published study, with robust empirical data, suggests that such a strategy may not be the best for a home seller. Furthermore, the study suggests evidence that real estate agents who recommend under pricing as a strategy believe that homes listed for less – sell for less than comparable homes.

Bucchianeri & Minson (A Homeowner’s Dilemma: Anchoring in Residential Real Estate Transactions. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. May 2013: 76–92) collected and compared data related to “anchoring” (higher list price to prompt buyers to make higher offers) and “herding” (lower list prices intended to creating bidding wars) theories. Although actual sale prices may depend on location and time on market, the conclusions are that homes listed at higher prices sold for more than those that relied on bidding up the price. The authors suggest that sellers should think twice before under pricing their home to create a bidding war; and suggest that results from such strategies are typically anecdotal.

If setting a higher price may translate into a longer time on market, how could you know if you are priced too high or low? Listen to home buyers. A study conducted by Case, Shiller, & Thompson (“What have they been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. 2012: 265-315) of 25 years of data in four metropolitan areas concluded that there is a strong relationship between buyer’s perception of price trends and actual price changes; the stronger the price trend (in either direction), the stronger the agreement among home buyers perceptions.

Home buyers’ short term and long term expectations of home prices can differ. And although Case, Shiller, & Thompson indicate that it is more difficult to gauge long term pricing expectations, they were undoubtedly impressed that buyers’ were “out in front” of short term home price changes. They stated, “…We find that homebuyers were generally well informed, and that their short-run expectations if anything underreacted to the year-to-year change in actual home prices.”

If deciding on your home’s selling price gives you a headache, Stefanos Chen wonders if taking a Tylenol could assist in making a decision. In his October 23^rd Wall Street Journal article (Can Tylenol Ease the Pain of a Home Sale?), Chen reported of to-be-published research that indicates taking the pain reliever may ease the anguish associated with “loss-aversion” (an avoidance of a perceived loss).

“Can acetaminophen reduce the pain of decision-making?” by DeWall, Chester & White is expected to be published in the January volume of the Journal of Experimental Social Psychology (pages 117-120). The results indicate that those who took acetaminophen sold a mug (that was given to them 30 seconds prior) for significantly less than those who tool a placebo. Chen’s question whether taking a Tylenol could help a seller take a lower sales price is a stretch, considering that the study was limited to 95 college student subjects. Although further research is indicated, the study’s conclusions may have implications to lessening the “pain” of letting go of ownership.

By Dan Krell
© 2014

October 24, 2014July 5, 2019

Trendy is not for home staging

Departing from the safety of natural materials and earth tones, big and bold interior design has become popular this year. Many designers have talked about 2014 as the year of using bright colors, brass and other yellow metals throughout the house. But if you’re selling your home, tread cautiously– because trendy may not be the best choices for staging your listed home.

Kelly Walters of HGTV (Color Trends: What’s New, What’s Next?; hgtv.com) talked about color use in the home, over the last ten years, being a reflection of our need for safety after 9/11 and the Great Recession. However, this is the year for change, and it’s reflected in the colors we choose for our interiors. A palette of gray hues is replacing the use of browns as the favorite neutral color; while reds, pinks, and violets are trending in popularity.

Using brass throughout the house has been the buzz during 2014. Kate Watson-Smyth reported the popularity of brass (Why brass is back as the new must-have metal for home décor; Financial Times, January 24, 2014; ft.com) as being a trend moving away from shine towards warmer tones. The use of brass and similar metals has also expanded from stylish bathroom finishes and hardware to fixtures as well as furniture.

Remember wallpaper? It’s back! Realtor® Magazine’s Barbara Ballinger wrote about how wallpaper has made a comeback. Relegated to accents, wallpaper is once again acceptable as wall covers (Wallpaper: Back in the Game; Realtor® Magazine, October 2014; realtormag.realtor.org). The new generation of wallpapers are eco-friendly and easier to use; inks are typically water based, while many papers are designed as “peel and stick” to be easily removed and reused.

Kitchens are important to many of us, and what could be better for the home chef than their own hydroponic garden. On her blog The Entertaining House, Jessica Ryan (jessicagordonryan.com) describes the Chef’s Garden Wall hydroponic system, “Fresh is the new green.” Because some kitchen hydroponic systems are low maintenance, you don’t necessarily have to be a gardener to have fresh greens at your finger tips all year.

Although trendy interior design may seem modern and stylish, it may not be the best choices when selling your home. Melissa Tracey wrote in her Home Trends Blog (5 Design Trends You May Want to Avoid in Staging; August 11, 2014; blogs.realtor.org), “Staging in trendy fabrics, colors, and finishes may offer up buyers a feeling that the home is up-to-date and move-in-ready. But getting too trendy can also backfire, particularly if it’s too personalized.”

And about those interior design trends I listed above? Tracey says to “steer clear.” Although wallpaper may be a tempting and easy way to brighten up a room, she says to stick with paint because wallpaper may interfere with a buyers’ vision of living in the room. And when painting, she says that trendy colors may be “too bold” for buyers; sellers should stick with neutral colors, using bolder colors as accents (such as pillows, rugs, and lamps). And although many designers are going all in on brass, it’s best to use it sparingly as accents when staging your home. The trend toward doorless kitchen cabinets is to be avoided, because buyers will undoubtedly ask “Where are the doors?” And finally, Tracey points out that the highly popular Tuscan and French Provincial themes are giving way to transitional and contemporary styles.

By Dan Krell
©2014