A tale of two markets
As signs of economic stabilization are being reported throughout the world, markets begin to show signs of activity. Global housing markets have also reported increased activity and signs of a stabilizing real estate market.
Julia Werdigier recently reported in a recent New York Times article (British Real Estate Market Seems to Be Thawing a Bit, August 4, 2009) that British home prices have increased 1.3% since the beginning of the year. Although this is still quite a difference from the almost 15% slide in UK home prices since 2007, it is sure a welcome statistic as the British expect home prices to end positively.
In China, ShaignhighDaily.com (August 11, 2009) reported that home prices across seventy Chinese cities increased one percent from the same time last year. Additionally, Chinese home prices have increased for five consecutive months after a six month slide.
Here in the United States, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently reported that the number of pending home sales continue to increase (a five month increase). This successive increase is the first since 2003. Signed real estate contracts increased 3.6% in June from May’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) of 91.3 and 6.7% from June 2008’s PHSI of 88.7 (August 4, 2009).
Additionally, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (StandardandPoors.com) showed signs of relief of downward pressure; however, home prices are reported to be at 2003 levels. Freddie Mac reported that its Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index (CMHPI) fell 5.3% in the first quarter of 2009 compared to the 18.4% decline in the fourth quarter of 2008.
NAR Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, was quoted in the NAR press release as attributing increased activity to “historically low mortgage interest rates, affordable home prices and large selection are encouraging buyers who’ve been on the sidelines. Activity has been consistently much stronger for lower priced homes…” Dr. Yun also stated that many first time home buyers are acting to meet the November 30th deadline to qualify for an $8,000 tax credit.
Although the data may seem encouraging, the numbers may be telling the story of an emerging “two tier “market. A two tier market is a description used when prices vary significantly for seemingly similar homes; a closer look reveals that well kept and updated home owner resales fetch a higher price than the poorer condition distressed properties.
Because home owner resales typically peek in spring and summer months, we can expect the number of home owner resale listing to decrease as winter approaches. Combined with another expected wave of home foreclosures (from resetting adjustable rate mortgages and option arms), recent real estate market gains may be temporary.
Even the venerated Alan Greenspan recently warned on the August 2nd airing of “This Week With George Stephanopoulos” (ABC.com) that there may be a “second wave down” in home prices; stating that the real estate market has stabilized temporarily, and real estate data is very difficult to measure because the data is regional.
Much like last summer’s real estate market blip (where the NAR reported a five month high in home sales for July 2008), we may be headed into another downward winter market. However, any downturn will be temporary and further indication of a two tier market as home owner resales increase next spring and summer.
This column is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of August 10, 2009. Copyright © 2009 Dan Krell.