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October 28, 2015October 20, 2020

Living with a ghost in your home

A recent Trulia poll (infographic at right) revealed how men and women differ about living in a home associated with the paranormal or macabre (Trulia’s House of Horrors; trulia.com; October 13, 2015). Respondents (45% of women and 36% of men) answered that they would prefer to be haunted by a “vengeful ghost” rather than a demon, evil leprechaun, or possessed doll. When asked, 59% of women respondents indicated that they would lose interest in the “perfect” home if they knew the home was a former crime scene; while 47% of men indicated the same. Additionally, 32% of women indicated that they would rule out an otherwise perfect home knowing that a person died there; while 23% of men indicated the same. Apparently, living next to a cemetery was not a detractor from purchasing an otherwise perfect home, according to 61% of the men and 50% of the women who responded.

Ghost or not, the “creep factor” is definitely an issue for many home buyers. So much so that home buyers are turning to services such as DiedInHouse.com to determine if a death occurred in a home they are considering buying. For a fee, DiedInHouse.com will provide a report indicating if a death has occurred and the cause, as well as other information about the home including any reported meth-lab related activity or fire incidents.

Although many alleged haunted homes are old and in many cases have historic significance, new homes can also have ghostly activity. Local historian, Karen Yaffe Lottes, re-tells this story on her blog Montgomery-Ghosts (montgomeryghosts.wordpress.com) about a modern Germantown home where a police officer lived. The officer reported that the house shook and he heard heavy footsteps on the stairs, when putting on “dress blues.” Apparently, the house was built on the site of the farm where Lincoln conspirator, George Atzerodt, was arrested by a uniformed Union soldier – the Union Army uniform was blue. Atzerodt, was subsequently jailed and hanged for his part in the conspiracy. Could Atzerodt still reside on the site where he was apprehended and sent to his demise?

Karen knows a thing or two about local haunted homes, and told me that she uses ghost stories as a medium to tell a history. Along with co-author Dorothy Pugh, years of stories from their “In Search of Ghosts (ISOG)” event at the Montgomery County Historical Society was published as In Search of Maryland Ghosts: Montgomery County (Schiffer Publishing, October 28, 2012).

When asked what to do if paranormal activity is suspected in a home, Karen explained that people try various methods to rid their home of ghosts; some work and some do not. She pointed out that not everyone is uncomfortable with the thought of living with apparitions. Some people actually welcome the spirit to stay; and in some cases ask the ghost to move with them to their next home.

By Dan Krell
©2015

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

September 30, 2015November 23, 2021

Herding behavior and real estate decisions

Have you ever wondered why real estate trends develop? When we’re buying and selling a home, we like to think we act rationally and with intention. However, our decision making is influenced externally. We are affected by the attitudes of the experts, family and friends, from whom we solicit advice. We are also consciously and unconsciously influenced by information we get from TV, the internet, social media, news papers, and even from eavesdropping conversations. Your decision making may be based on others’ behaviors that signaled it was the correct thing to do, and in turn magnifies and strengthens the signal to others – which is described as herding behavior.

Herding behavior plays a large role in our daily lives, as well as in our real estate choices and conclusions. Decisions about home buying and selling, which agent to hire, sales prices, and even whether or not we should default on our mortgage can be influenced by herding behaviors.

A 2013 study of herding behavior in strategic default revealed significant findings about our vulnerability to information (Luchtenberg & Seiler (2013).The effect of exogenous information signal strength on herding. Review of Behavioral Finance, 5(2),153-174). To refresh your memory, strategic default (allowing a home to go to foreclosure when financially able to pay the mortgage) became a significant trend that was widely covered in the media during 2010-2012. Luchtenberg & Seiler’s research into decision making and herding behavior suggested that those who are susceptible to information can be easily swayed. Their findings among professionals revealed that low consensus information (“weak information signals”) caused herding when asked to make a personal choice; while high consensus information (“strong information signals”) caused herding when providing advice to a friend.

The notion that the housing and financial crises were caused by herding behavior is not new. However, economist Christian Hott researched if housing bubbles are caused by herding behavior (Hott, C. (2012). The influence of herding behaviour on house prices. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 5(3),177-198). Citing others, Hott explains that herding behaviors are formed by those who are “imperfectly informed” and “learn from the decisions” of others; and that people tend to “overestimate the likelihood of an event” to occur to them when they hear it happened to someone else (expecting the same experience that someone else had). Although Hott concluded that herding was not the only contributor to the housing market collapse, and suggested that mortgage banking was also likely responsible; the findings indicated that herding behavior does play a role in home price fluctuations and housing bubbles.

Cognitive dissonance may also be at work to reinforce your herding behaviors. You may act on information that is not widely acknowledged just because the source is significant to you (such as a relative, close friend or co-worker). And the stronger your belief in the information, the more likely you will in turn confidently give the same advice to others, even though it may be inaccurate and/or irrational.

Breaking away from the herd is difficult; buying and selling a home may not seem to be a rational process – even when confronted with facts. People don’t always base decision of logical choices, but rather base decisions on psycho-emotional needs and/or fears (such as status, acceptance, and avoidance of failure). However, seeking balanced information and becoming aware of your motivations may improve your decision making.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2015/09/30/herding-behavior-can-interfere-with-real-estate-decisions/

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April 9, 2015July 28, 2019

Home buyer survey predictive of spring housing market

I think it’s safe to say that many of us have been anticipating spring’s warm weather; if not for a change of pace from arctic temperatures, it’s the season that the housing market swings into top gear. However, Fannie Mae’s March 2015 National Housing Survey^™may support anecdotal reports of home buyer attitudes toward home prices and is making some re-think their estimation of the spring market.

The April 7^th Fannie Mae (fanniemae.com) press release titled, “Lackluster Income Growth Weighing on Americans’ Housing Sentiment: Share of Consumers Expecting to Buy a Home on Next Move Reaches Survey Low” might convey that not all home buyers are looking to buy a home this year. However, the news is not all gloom and doom. Although the survey indicated that 60% of respondents said they would buy a home if they were to move, which is an all-time survey low; the percentage of those who responded that it was a good time to buy a home hit an all-time survey high. Additionally, there were fewer respondents in March’s survey who felt their financial situation would improve in the next year.

The survey is described by Fannie Mae as “The most detailed consumer attitudinal survey of its kind.” It polls 1,000 Americans on their attitudes about such things that include (but is not limited to) homeownership, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer confidence. Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist Doug Duncan remarked about the March survey: “… results emphasize how critical attitudes about income growth are to consumers’ outlook on housing.” However, consumer sentiment should improve as income growth is realized.

Fannie Mae’s March survey is coming on the heels of news of a possible economic slowdown. The Wall Street Journal’s Kate Davidson reported on March 25^th (GDP Growth Estimates Tumble, Again: wsj.com) that the latest Gross Domestic Product estimates may be a repeat of last year. While several Wall Street economists revised lower their Q1 2015 GDP estimates from 0.9% to 1.5%, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta lowered their Q1 2015 GDP estimate to 0.2%.

If last year’s pattern is being realized, the survey’s consumer sentiment and economic news is just a blip on the radar. Remember that the Q1 2014 GDP was negative as the economy retracted, however rebounding with 5% third quarter growth. Likewise, 2014 home sales rebounded later in the year only finishing the year only 3% behind 2013 (according to the National Association of Realtors®). And as the NAR reported on March 30^th that pending home sales rose during February, it is estimated that existing home sales will increase 6.4% during 2015 compared to 2014 (nar.realtor).

The upshot of this data could be that consumers are saying is that it’s a good time to buy a home, but only if you can afford it. However, it’s not just about the dollar amount; home buyers are increasingly demanding value for their money. Buyers are looking at the bigger picture of the costs of homeownership including maintenance and commute to work. And this attitude can be reflected in home buyers’ push back on home prices.

If you’re a home seller, relatively low housing inventory is good news; but pricing your home correctly may be the definitive factor. And as you might anticipate home buyers competing for your home; consider that some have reported that that low appraisals have impacted their sale.

By Dan Krell
© 2015

February 18, 2015October 5, 2019

New rules in Real Estate

Real estate canon used to be straight forward and for the most part consistent. For instance, if you planned a sale, you would target spring time because that was generally accepted as the time when home buyer activity was the greatest; or buying a home was a rite of passage. But since 2008, what was generally accepted has been persistently challenged; home buyers and sellers have shifted into a new paradigm with new rules.

It is no coincidence that Zillow Talk: The New Rules of Real Estate (by Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff and Chief Economist Stan Humphries, Ph.D.) comes at a time when significant changes in consumer beliefs and expectations about real estate have become widely recognized. The book is described by Zillow as “…poised to be the real estate almanac for the next generation.” And looking at the table of contents, you might think that the highly acclaimed tome is just another book about the buying and selling process; yet it seems to discuss practical aspects about buying and selling a home, as well as possibly confronting real estate myths.

It will remain to be seen how influential the work will become, as research has indicated that home buyers are typically well informed and out in front of housing trends.

A 2012 study by Karl Case, Robert Shiller, & Anne Thompson (What have they been thinking? homebuyer behavior in hot and cold markets. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 265-315) revealed perceptions and expectations of homebuyers from four metropolitan markets over a 25 year period. The authors concluded that the surveyed home buyers were well informed and very much aware of home price trends prior to their purchase. Data suggested that home buyer opinions (beliefs) fluctuated over time; there was more agreement among respondents during strong markets, and increased doubt during times of market uncertainty. There was also a strong correlation between price perceptions and actual movement in prices. Although home buyers were “out in front” of short term market movements, their short term expectations “underreacted” to actual home price changes; while long term expectations were persistently “more optimistic.”

Suggesting a set of “guidelines” for real estate is a trap that implies that the housing market is straightforward and static; where personal and regional differences don’t matter and the market doesn’t change. However, David Wyman, Elaine Worzala, and Maury Seldin raise the question about becoming complacent with trends and models. In a 2013 exploratory paper (Hidden complexity in housing markets: a case for alternative models and techniques, International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 6:4, 383 – 404) they discuss how rigid market models may lead to rules where buyers and sellers could make poor decisions.

The authors’ discussion of “complexity theory” in real estate in not unlike the application of “chaos theory,” which focuses on letting go of assumptions upon which rules are definitive; and view housing as a dynamic and changing environment. Citing incidents leading up to the financial crisis, the authors make a case for understanding the market as complex and using common sense before making (buying and selling) decisions.

So as we begin to understand the new real estate dogma, it is likely that the new rules will most likely change along with the market. And much like the housing market, consumer beliefs are also dynamic – which seem to be ahead of the industry experts.

January 22, 2015July 5, 2019

Affordable housing redux

Statistics and indices have indicated that buying a home has become more affordable in recent years. In fact, the October 2014 Trulia Rent vs. Buy Index indicated that buying a home was 38% cheaper than renting (trulia.com). Additionally, the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index released December 30th indicated that average home prices for the 10-City and 20-City Composites are at “autumn 2004 levels” (housingviews.com). However, while interest rates continue to be favorable along with an expanding inventory that offers more choices, obstacles remain to home ownership.

Unlike the high home prices that drove affordable housing concerns in the past, many would-be home buyers today face income and savings challenges. Statistics suggest that many do not earn enough to qualify for a home purchase and/or have not saved enough for a down payment and closing costs. The latest report (Q2 2014) of the Maryland Association of Realtors® First-time Homebuyer Affordability Index revealed a decrease in home affordability from 84.1% to 75.7%; which indicates that Maryland first time home buyers had 75% of the income required “to purchase a typical starter home” (mdrealtor.org).

More importantly, a survey conducted by the Consumer Federation of America (7th Annual Savings Survey Reveals Persistence of Financial Challenges Facing Most Americans; February 24, 2014, consumerfed.org), revealed that “most Americans are meeting their immediate financial needs but are worse off than several years ago.” And, “… that, despite the economic recovery, most Americans continue to face significant personal savings challenges….” Stephen Brobeck, Executive Director of the Consumer Federation of America and a founder of America Saves, was quoted to say: “Only about one-third of Americans are living within their means and think they are prepared for the longterm financial future. One-third are living within their means but are often not prepared for this longterm future. And one-third are struggling to live within their means.”

With an eye to address housing affordability, the President reduced the FHA annual mortgage insurance premium (MIP). Increases in FHA’s MIP in recent years have helped offset losses from the foreclosure crisis; and inadvertently made mortgages more expensive. And although the recent MIP reduction helps more home buyers qualify, critics claim it increases FHA’s risk and exposure to future foreclosure losses. According to Zillow (How Much Can You Save with Lower FHA Annual Mortgage Insurance Premiums?; January 7,2015, zillow.com), a home buyer who has a 3.5% down payment on a 30 year mortgage of $175,000 can save about $818 per year (about $68 per month).

For those who have not saved enough for a down payment and closing costs, State and local initiatives offer down payment assistance and low interest rate mortgage programs. The Maryland Mortgage Program (mmp.maryland.gov) offers down payment assistance in the form of loans, an employer match program, or financial grants. Locally, the Housing Opportunities Commission of Montgomery County (hocmc.org) offers several down payment assistance options, including the House Keys 4 Employees program for many Montgomery County Employees. These programs have restrictions; you should check with each program for qualification and eligibility requirements.

The Montgomery County Department of Housing and Community Affairs (montgomerycountymd.gov/DHCA) offers additional affordable housing options: The Moderately Priced Dwelling Unit (MPDU) Program offers affordably priced homes to first-time home buyers who meet the program’s eligibility; and the Work Force Housing Program promotes “the construction of housing that will be affordable to households with incomes at or below 120% of the area-wide median.”

By Dan Krell
© 2015