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January 6, 2017November 23, 2021

Greedy home seller tips

Don't be a greedy home seller — Pricing Strategy for a Home Sale (infographic from forsalebyowner.com)

When there is a buzz about home sellers being greedy, you know home sales are doing well. So, not surprisingly, along with last year’s record home sales came the reports of greedy home sellers. Are you a greedy home seller? Or are you adjusting to a market where home prices are increasing?

Greed has developed a bad rap. Surely there is an evolutionary basis for greed. Many believe that early hominids promoted personal and group survival by being “greedy” (although disputed by some). Those who hoarded food, so as to have more than enough, lived through difficult winters and droughts. During times of financial prosperity, greed is looked upon favorably. However, in the aftermath of a recession, greed is thought of as the basis for fiscal calamity. Immortalized in Gordon Geckko’s famous “greed is good” speech in the 1987 movie Wall Street, “greed” is a cinematic vehicle to show the fine line between a healthy desire to prosper and a corrupt drive to have more than enough.

Avoid being viewed as a greedy home seller by creating a realistic pricing strategy. Creating a pricing strategy is an art and a science. When selling a home, you have to determine the list price. There are many factors to consider besides recent neighborhood sales, such as condition of your home, sales trends, mortgage interest rates, economic trends, etc. Like other home sellers, you fall into a conundrum. If you price your home too high, then it will limit potential home buyers who visit. However, if you price your home too low to increase home buyer interest, you may not get the price you want.

Contrary to some assertions that a home’s list price doesn’t play a role in the sale, there is evidence to suggest that it really does matter. Lu Han and William C. Strange determined that a lower list price does increase home buyer visits – but only to a point (What is the Role of the Asking Price for a House? University of Toronto, Rotman School of Management; 2012). They concluded that there is a point at which the home price is perceived to attract too much buyer competition, which may turn off other home buyers. Furthermore, their data shows that there is a negative relationship between a list price and the number of home buyers: meaning that the higher the list price relative to the neighborhood, the lower number of home buyer visits, and vice-versa.

If you fear being a greedy home seller by asking for a high price for your home, there is research to suggest that you’ll let go of the greed in order to make a deal. A 2013 study by Nuno T. Magessi and Luis Antunes looked at how the emotions of fear and greed compete internally (Agent’s fear monitors the spread of greed in a social network; Proceedings of the 11th European Workshop on Multi‐Agent Systems EUMAS, 12-13). They concluded that greed is mitigated by the fear of loss within the confines of a social network. When applied to a home sale, the fear of not selling a home competes with the impulse to hold out for the high price. Deducing further, there is a need to fit within one’s social network by trying to sell a home for the most money, and yet avoid the stigma of a failed home sale.

Don’t be a greedy home seller. RealtorMag described three common home seller mistakes in a 2015 post (3 Mistakes Sellers Often Make; realtormag.realtor.org; April 12, 2015). Included were “Not being honest with the home’s history,” “Not making a better home presentation,” and “Being unrealistic about the home’s value.” About unrealistic home value, it was said:

“…Despite tight inventories of homes for-sale in many markets, sellers still need to be careful not to get too greedy with their list price, say real estate professionals…Home owners tend to get a much lower price when they overprice a home at the onset and then drop the price several times. The longer the home lingers on a market, the more likely it will receive a deeper discount…”

If your home doesn’t sell, you must examine your pricing strategy. Was the price realistic, or were you too greedy?

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2017/01/06/greedy-home-seller/

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

December 1, 2016January 28, 2020

Home prices surprise

Back in January, I told you that the housing market of 2016 would be about home prices.

2016 housing market hinges on home prices.

A home selling season has not been anticipated so much by home sellers since 2013. It’s not that 2015 was a bad year for housing, because it wasn’t. It’s that many home owners who have been wanting to sell since 2010 (some because of being underwater) may be in position to make the long awaited move.

And indeed, national home sale prices have appreciated considerably through the year. But who would have thought that home prices would once again approach the level reached during the peak market of 2006?

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (spindices.com) reported in July that the index was within 3 percent of peak, with another month of 5 percent appreciation. And surprise! This week’s release of home price data indicated that the September’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index exceeded the index that was recorded during the peak market that occurred July 2006! September’s year-over-year gains were due to a 5.5 percent gain to the National Index, while the 20-City composite remained unchanged at a 5.1 percent.

Of course, regional and local differences explain why actual home prices in many areas don’t seem as high as they were during the peak. Consider that Seattle, Portland, and Denver reported the highest annual home price gains with 11 percent, 10.9 percent, and 8.7 percent respectively. The Washington DC region realized a 2.7 percent increase; which is well below the top gainers, as well as below the national average. Although the housing markets in Miami, Tampa, Phoenix and Las Vegas experienced the most home price gains during the peak; current home prices in those cities “remain well below their all-time highs.”

Analysis provided in the November 29th press release states:

“The new peak set by the S&P Case-Shiller CoreLogic National Index will be seen as marking a shift from the housing recovery to the hoped-for start of a new advance” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “While seven of the 20 cities previously reached new post-recession peaks, those that experienced the biggest booms — Miami, Tampa, Phoenix and Las Vegas — remain well below their all-time highs. Other housing indicators are also giving positive signals: sales of existing and new homes are rising and housing starts at an annual rate of 1.3 million units are at a post-recession peak.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (fhfa.gov) also reported continued home price gains last week. The FHFA Home Price Index (HPI) increased 6.1 percent year-over-year. The November 23^rd press release reported that home prices increased in 49 states during the third quarter of 2016 compared to the same period last year. However, “Delaware and the District of Columbia were the only areas not to see price increases.”

Indications of a strengthening housing market have been reported for many months. Last year, the National Association of Realtors® (realtor.org) reported that the national median home sale price recorded for June 2015 ($236,400) surpassed the peak national median home sale price established during July 2006 ($230,400).

And if that weren’t enough, existing home sales have also been expanding. The NAR reported last week that existing home sales increased during October. The two-month consecutive increase doesn’t only outpace June’s peak, but is now the “highest annualized pace in nearly a decade.”

Existing-home sales ascended in October for the second straight month and eclipsed June’s cyclical sales peak to become the highest annualized pace in nearly a decade, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions saw monthly and annual sales increases in October.

Termed an “autumn revival,” Lawrence Yun NAR chief economist, stated that “October’s strong sales gain was widespread throughout the country and can be attributed to the release of the unrealized pent-up demand that held back many would-be buyers over the summer because of tight supply…Buyers are having more success lately despite low inventory and prices that continue to swiftly rise above incomes.”

As much as we would like home prices to significantly appreciate indefinitely, market forces and economic factors will intervene. Increasing interest rates is not only consistent with a growing economy, it will likely moderate home prices.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated in her November 17^th Congressional testimony regarding monetary policy:

At our meeting earlier this month, the Committee judged that the case for an increase in the target range had continued to strengthen and that such an increase could well become appropriate relatively soon if incoming data provide some further evidence of continued progress toward the Committee’s objectives. This judgment recognized that progress in the labor market has continued and that economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. And inflation, while still below the Committee’s 2 percent objective, has increased somewhat since earlier this year. Furthermore, the Committee judged that near-term risks to the outlook were roughly balanced.

Yellen stated that “an increase could well become appropriate relatively soon.” Yellen referred to economic strengths as rationale, however analysis of new data should comport with the Open Market Committee’s objectives. Yellen stated that housing market strengths are favorable for an interest rate increase. Although new home construction has been “subdued,” the fundamentals of the housing market are complimentary to such a move.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2016/12/01/home-prices-surprise/

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September 10, 2016July 12, 2019

Home price impact of power lines and cell towers

Anyone who has bought or rented a home has been told about lead paint, radon, and maybe even asbestos, as well as other potential hazards in the home. But what about potential hazards brought about by technology, how do they affect home prices? Many shirk away from homes that are close to power lines or cell towers because of health concerns; while some are repelled by the aesthetics. Regardless, there’s probably a home price impact when in close proximity to power lines and cell towers.

What is considered to be necessary for modern living, power lines and cell towers are fundamental to our lives. And although many are wary of the health effects from living nearby these devices; they will still have wi-fi, and a microwave oven in their home, and they probably also use a cell phone. All of which emit similar types of radiation.

According to the American Cancer Society (cancer.org), the type of radiation emitted from power lines and cell towers are non-ionizing radiation, like the electronic devices mentioned above. Non-ionizing radiation does not remove particles from atoms, nor does it directly change DNA. Power lines emit ELF (extremely low frequency radiation), which is a lower energy radiation than visible light and infrared.

Cell towers, on the other hand, emit radiofrequency (RF) radiation that is between FM and microwaves. Although very high levels of RF can be damaging to body tissue, the American Cancer Society website states that cell phones and towers emit RF at much lower levels (of course, one should not stand next to a cell tower). More about power lines, cell towers, and health concerns can be obtained from the American Cancer Society website.

What is the home price impact when you sell your home?

Findings of a 2005 study conducted by Bond & Wang (The Impact of Cell Phone Towers on House Prices in Residential Neighborhoods. The Appraisal Journal. Summer 2005.) indicated that about 40% of the control group were concerned about health effects of living in close proximity to a cell tower; which compared to 13% of respondents already living nearby a cell tower. Nevertheless, both groups were highly concerned about future property values: 38% of the control group would lower asking price by as much as 20%; while almost two-thirds of the respondents living close to a cell tower would lower the home price by as much as 19%. Certainly you can see that there are concerns that may have a home price impact.

Maybe a home price impact is minimal. Roddewig & Brigden’s review of the research into property values surrounding power lines was enlightening (2014. Power Lines and Property Prices. Real Estate Issues, 39(2),15-33.). They stated that the appraisal industry does not automatically reduce prices just because of a property’s proximity to a power line, even though there has been history of concern over the environmental impacts. And caution home owners, buyers, and real estate professionals to not substitute opinion for analyses of actual home prices.

They concluded that if there is a home price impact, it is a small reduction. They explained that “the real estate appraisal profession has been studying those prices since the 1960s. Some of the many published studies have found adverse impacts to property prices and values while others have found no impact or statistically insignificant impacts despite media attention given possible health effects of exposure to EMFs.”

Roddewig & Brigden also found that the long history of research suggests that negative impacts on property values from power lines can be limited by proper “land use planning and subdivision layout procedures.”

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2016/09/10/home-prices-power-lines-cell-towers/

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2016

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August 19, 2016November 23, 2021

Home sale timing – sell for more

Everyone wants to know the future, especially when it comes to the home sale timing. Home sellers and buyers want to predict home prices. Home sellers want to know the best time to sell. While Home buyers want to know if they’re getting a good price. And apparently there may be a fairly reliable predictor to home prices, however it’s not what you think it is.

Several empirical studies have attempted to provide a methodology for predicting the housing market (home sale timing). Of course there is the familiar of forecasting real estate through divorce and premarital agreements. Back in 2013, the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyer (AAML.org) issued a press release citing the increase of prenuptial agreements as sign of the improving economy. The increase in prenuptial agreements meant that people felt there was value in their assets. And this was meant to be a good sign in for housing market.

Of course there was also a spike in divorces that year, leading some to believe this to also be a good sign that people felt better about the economy because of their willingness to begin anew. But as University of Maryland sociologist Philip N. Cohen pointed out in his November 2015 blog post (Divorce rate plunge continues; familyinequality.wordpress.com) the increased divorce activity of 2013 was a just a recession related “bump” and in actuality the divorce rate decreased in 2014.

Then there was predicting housing through internet search data, which sounds more like fortune-telling than research to be honest. However, Beracha and Wintoki (Forecasting Residential Real Estate Price Changes from Online Search Activity; The Journal of Real Estate Research 35.3 (2013): 283-312.) concluded that, indeed, you can gauge regional housing trends through specific keyword search volume. Given this method, I used Google Trends to look up the keyword “home for sale” for the Washington DC metro region – and it is bound to become a hot market in the next six months (maybe a Presidential election has something to do with that?).

But a better indicator of where home prices will go may be the availability of credit. Most would argue that mortgage lending is a matter of housing demand. However, a working paper by Manuel Adelino, Antoinette Schoar, and Felipe Severino (Credit Supply and House Prices: Evidence from Mortgage Market Segmentation; February 19, 2014) concluded that “easy credit supply leads to an increase in house prices.” They contend that higher conforming loan limits and low interest rates benefit home sellers in the form of higher sale prices.

Adelino, Schoar, and Severino’s premise can be witnessed in hindsight as the pre-recession housing boom seemed to be fueled on easy credit. As credit became increasingly available, home value appreciation took off. Likewise, housing stabilized and home values appreciated post-recession as home lending requirements loosened.

Of course, many associate easy credit policies with recessions, and even the Great Depression. However, it’s not necessarily the easy credit that precipitates the recession – but rather it’s the tightening of credit. Stephen Gandel (This is When You’ll Know it’s Time to Panic About a Recession; fortune.com; March 8,2016) said it succinctly, “Tightening credit doesn’t always lead to a recession. But every recession starts with that.”

One may infer from Adelino, Schoar, and Severino’s research that a home seller can gauge their home sale price based on the lending environment. Lower interest rates and loose credit points to a higher sale price. However, tightening credit policies may point to flat or even lower home prices.

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June 3, 2016November 23, 2021

Housing bubble countdown

The March S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (spindices.com) was announced May 31^st to reveal a 5.2% increase in home prices. Although down from last March’s 5.3% increase, home prices seem to be appreciating at a regular pace, with the metro areas of Portland, Seattle, and Denver leading the way with double digit gains (year-over-year price increases of 12.3%, 10.8%, 10.0% respectively). As home prices climb, so too are the claims that we are experiencing a housing bubble.

Those concerned about the next bubble have been ringing the alarm bells since last fall, when the combination of limited inventory, multiple offers, and rising prices created an environment in some regions that was reminiscent of the go-go market just prior to the last market bust. And like the broken watch that is correct twice a day, those naysayers may eventually be correct – but it may not be for another eight years.

How to predict a housing bubble

According to Ted Nicolais, the real estate cycle has been steady since 1800 (How to Use Real Estate Trends to Predict the Next Housing Bubble; dce.harvard.edu; February 20, 2014). Writing for the Harvard University’s Department of Continuing Education’s The Language of Business blog, Nicolais maps out Homer Hoyt’s cycles and found a regular 18-year cycle to the bubble and bust housing market (albeit two exceptions).

The 18-year cycle, as it turns out can be observed by analyzing trends. An applying Henry George’s four phases of the real estate cycle (as modernized by Glenn R. Mueller), Nicolais can determine how and when the next housing bubble will occur. (Henry George was a nineteenth century economist who studied the boom-bust cycle of the economy).

The first phase is the “recovery.” Home prices are at the bottom, and demand increases. Real estate vacancies decrease as economic activity increases, which fuels the economy.

The second phase is the “expansion.” Housing inventories dwindle, there is little is available to buy, and finding a rental becomes difficult. Nicolais explains that an issue with real estate is that once demand increases, filling inventory takes a long time. New development can take two to five years. Until new inventory is added, price growth accelerates; and rather than valued at market conditions, real estate becomes priced to future gains. During a real estate boom, people buy into the prospect of “future growth” and believe the escalating prices are reasonable.

Phase three is “hyper supply.” When the completion of new development begins to satisfy demand, inventories fist stabilizes and then swells. Price growth begins to slow. Nicolais stated that the amount of continued development will determine the severity of the impending recession; while demand is satiated, new inventory comes to market and vacancies increase. He asserted that “wise” developers stop building during this phase.

Phase four is the “recession.” New development is stopped, while projects coming to completion add to a growing inventory. Occupancy rates and prices fall; property values and profits dwindle. Developments in mid-construction may not be completed because they are no longer financially feasible.

Following the four phases and the 18-year cycle; Nicolais stated that the great recession was not caused by external forces, but rather occurred on schedule! He figures that the current housing market is transitioning from recovery to an expansion phase. And with the exception of the occasional slow down, he predicts that the next housing bubble will be in 2024.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2016/06/03/housing-bubble-countdown/

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