A hot winter housing market

winter housing market
Winter housing market (infographic from househunt.com)

Winter is not usually a time of year when you would think of selling your home.  After all, everyone gets into holiday and hibernation mode.  Between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day (during the winter housing market), home sale inventory is usually trimmed by an average of 50 percent and contract activity is significantly reduced.

But this winter will be different.  Rising interest rates and pent up demand could make the housing market very active this winter.

Consider that mortgage interest rates are on their way up.  Freddie Mac (freddiemac.com) reported last week about a mortgage interest “spike” that can get fence-sitters to jump into the winter housing market.  The rate for the 30-year-fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.94 percent, which jumped from the prior week’s average of 3.57 percent.  On the face of it, the increase doesn’t seem significant.  But the difference is about $70 per month on a $300,000 mortgage.

Last week’s interest rate surge could be the beginning of interest rate increases we’ve been anticipating (for five years).  Speculation is that the bond market is anticipating and pricing in a Fed interest rate hike at next month’s Open Market Committee meeting.  Of course, the next sixty days could be a lead up to new mortgage rate expectations, which could exceed 4.5 percent by the end of next year.

Historically low interest rates for a 30-year-fixed-rate mortgage have become part of our lives.  Upward movement will be met with hyperbole and excitement from the media, claiming reduced home sales and a faltering real estate market.  However, let’s put it in perspective.  Mortgage rates averaged above 4 percent throughout 2014.  The last time we had an average mortgage rate above 5 percent was 2010.  In fact, the average mortgage rate at the height of the go-go market during 2006 was above 6 percent.

What does it mean for you if you’re planning a sale?  Don’t wait until spring!  Consider selling during the winter housing market.  You won’t have much competition; and serious home buyers, who are sensitive to interest rates, will be looking through the holidays and winter.

If you decide to sell during the holidays and the winter housing market, make sure your home is ready. Decluttering is the most important aspect of home preparation.  However, winter decluttering may be more difficult because of the colder weather and our desire to slow down during these months.  Besides our inclination to “nest,” it’s easy to accumulate items in the house that make us cozy and comfortable.  But winter clutter can be minimized by organization and a daily straightening-up for incoming buyers.

Check your home’s systems.  Have licensed professionals inspect your furnace and roof.  Besides keeping the house warm and dry for buyers who visit, checking these systems can prevent surprises when a home inspection is performed.

After a weather event, clear your walkways and driveway of ice and snow.  Besides making it easier for home buyers to visit your home, it lessens the possibility of someone falling and getting hurt.

If your home is vacant, have a licensed professional winterize it. Winterizing your home can reduce the risk of bursting pipes and damaging plumbing fixtures.  If you are out of town, have a trusted person check on the home regularly (even if you are listed with a real estate agent).  Your “stand-in” should also be available to take care of any house related issues that occur in your absence during the winter housing market.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2016

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

35 years of home buying changes

home buying changes
Years of home buying changes? (infographic from keepingcurrentmatters.com)

This week’s release of the National Association of Realtors® Annual Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers marks the 35th year of NAR’s analysis and description of home buyer and seller behaviors and attitudes.  You may not remember what it was like in 1981, but the country was coming out of a deep recession.  The economy was still scarred with double-digit unemployment, inflation and interest rates.  The 35th issue makes us think about home buying changes over the years.

According to the US Census Bureau (census.gov), the median price for a new home in 1981 was $68,900, while in 2010 the average new home price was $221,800.  Freddie Mac’s (freddiemac.com) data indicates that the average mortgage interest rate in 1981 was 16.63 percent, and 4.69 percent in 2010.  Surprisingly, the cost of housing (when financing 100 percent of the sale price) has only increased about 17.5 percent from 1981 to 2010!

People want their space and privacy.  According to the American Enterprise Institute (aei.org), the median square feet per person in a home in 1981 was about 550sf, while in 2014 it was 987sf.  This expansion in personal space was expressed in the home size.  The median size of a home in 1981 1,550sf, while 2010 it was 2,169sf (according to the Census Bureau).  Also consider that the typical home of 1981 only had one and a half bathrooms, and the expectation today is that a home should have at least two and a half bathrooms.

An October 18th news release from the NAR (Five Notable Nuggets from NAR’s Home Buyer and Sellers Survey’s 35-Year History; realtor.org) provided some insight into how the housing market has changed through the years.  One noticeable factor is the reduced number of first time home buyers entering the market due to underemployment, student debt, lack of down payment, or delaying family formation.  Last year’s percentage of first time home buyers dropped the lowest rate since 1987; and “according to the U.S. Census Bureau, the homeownership rate for 18-35 year-olds is currently at 34.1 percent, the lowest level in records dating back to 1994.”

It’s becoming apparent that real estate agents are not being replaced by the internet.  Although a majority of home buyers use the internet to assist them with the home buying process, the NAR reported that 90 percent of home buyers and sellers surveyed for this year’s profile worked with a real estate agent.  As a result, for-sale-by-owner transactions were at the lowest level ever (FSBO transactions peaked during 2003-2004).

The home buying process now takes longer than it used to.  Putting aside recent changes to the mortgage process, the 2016 Home Buyer and Seller Profile brings attention to the amount of time a home buyer needs to find a home.  According to the NAR, the average time to find a home was relatively unchanged from the 1980’s to about 2007; which about seven to eight weeks.  The duration of the home search peaked at twelve weeks from 2009 to 2013.  However, since then the average time needed to find a home is about ten weeks.  The increased search time is due to a number of factors.  Brisk sales combined with periods of low inventory has not provided home buyers with much of a choice from which to select.  Not to mention an unprecedented amount of available information that has created a savvy home buyer.

Copyright © Dan Krell

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Radon is everywhere – testing is not

Radon is everywhere
Radon is everywhere (infographic from inhabitat.com)

Montgomery County MD is implementing two controversial bills. New county recordation tax rates. And – Radon is everywhere, but new law falls short to protect county residents.

Effective September 1st, increased recordation tax will be collected in Montgomery County.  The rate for the first $500,000 will be $8.90 per $1,000.  The rate for any amount exceeding $500,000 will be $13.50 per $1,000.  The individual primary residence exemption is also increased from $50,000 to $100,000.   Read more about the controversy here.

Recordation tax is an excise tax that is collected for the “privilege” of recording an instrument in the land records.  Of course, transfer tax is collected when a home is sold; and is also collected when a mortgage is refinanced.

Effective October 1st radon testing is compulsory for homes that are sold in Montgomery County MD (however, the law lists exemptions).  The seller must test, or allow the buyer to test radon levels in the home.  The radon test must not be older than one year from the closing date.  Both the buyer and seller must receive the radon report.  If radon levels are above the EPA recommended action level of 4 picocuries per liter, then an estimate must be obtained from a licensed contractor to reduce level to 2 picocuries per liter.  Read more about the controversy here.

Radon is a toxic, radioactive gas that is formed by the natural breakdown of radium.  Radon seeks its way to the surface as an odorless, colorless, and tasteless gas.  A 1999 National Academy of Sciences report (The Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation, The Health Effects to Indoor Radon) indicated that radon causes up to 22,000 lung cancer deaths per year.  As there are no immediate symptoms of radon exposure, the only way to know if a building has high levels of this gas is to test for it.

Radon is everywhere, but testing is not.  Although the radon testing law is well intentioned, it misses the mark on comprehensive radon testing, education and awareness.

First, the law may unintentionally provide a false sense of security to home buyers. By requiring the test by the sale, it suggests to home buyers that the initial radon test (when the home is purchased) is the only test needed.  In fact, the EPA recommends radon testing every two years.  Homes with low radon levels may change over time to have increased levels, and vice versa.  Additionally, the self-testing conducted by home owners may not be accurate (or worse, may be intentionally erroneous). Consequentially, home buyers should hire a qualified expert to test the home regardless of home seller provided test results.

Second, it must be asked as to why only require testing for single family home sales?  Radon is everywhere.  The radon law should have been more comprehensive to also include radon testing every two years for single family rental units, schools, and public buildings.

And finally, the law should have provided for consumer education much like the EPA lead paint pamphlet (Protect Your Family From Lead In Your Home) that is required for home sales and rentals.  Likewise, why not provide to consumers the EPA pamphlet “Home Buyer’s and Seller’s Guide to Radon” (epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-05/documents/hmbuygud.pdf)?

Copyright © Dan Krell

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Money laundering through real estate

In the post financial crisis era, when anti-fraud units from various law enforcement agencies stepped up activity to prosecute real estate related crimes; real estate continues to be a vehicle for scammers and fraudsters.  Although mortgage fraud and identity theft have been the mainstay, money laundering through real estate has not received the same attention.  That is until this year, when a pilot program was initiated to identify money laundering in residential real estate.  The program was ordered through the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network of the US Department of the Treasury (FinCEN), which is tasked with the protection of our financial system by primarily combating money laundering (fincen.gov).

FinCEN’s concern is the laundering and/or structuring of money through all cash deals into luxury real estate, primarily through shell companies.  Through the use of LLC’s or other business structures, individuals can hide assets anonymously.  According to FinCEN, “Money laundering” is the disguising of funds derived from illicit activity so that the funds may be used without detection of the illegal activity that produced them.

A 2008 FinCEN report (Money Laundering in the Residential Real Estate Industry: Suspected Money Laundering in the Residential Real Estate Industry; April 2008) found that suspicious activity reports (SAR) remained steady through 2002.  However, began to increase in 2003, and sharply rose through 2005; the increase was significantly more than the rapidly expanding real estate market at that time.  Findings of the report indicated that over 75 percent of those engaging in money laundering activities were unaffiliated with the real estate industry.

The program to identify money laundering in residential real estate seemed to be the next logical step in a series of investigations.  As a result, FinCEN announced Geographic Targeting Orders (GTO) on January 13th of this year.   The GTO was enforced from March 1st, 2016 through August 27th, 2016.  And required title companies to report the individuals behind the companies buying high end real estate without financing (all cash deals), located in Manhattan and Miami-Dade County.

In an April 12th FinCEN news release, former FinCEN director Jennifer Shasky Calvery stated “The analysis and DOJ forfeiture cases continue to show corrupt politicians, drug traffickers, and other criminals using shell companies to purchase luxury real estate with cash. We see wire transfers originating from foreign banks in offshore havens where shell companies have established accounts, but in many cases we also see criminals using U.S. incorporated limited liability companies to launder their illicit funds through the U.S. real estate market.”

On July 27th, FinCEN announced the expansion of the GTO, beginning August 28th and lasting for 180 days.  The geographic areas were expanded to include: New York City; Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties; Los Angeles County; San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties; San Diego County; and Bexar County, Texas.

Increased scrutiny of money laundering in residential real estate compelled the National Association of Realtors® to issue Anti-Money Laundering Guidelines for Real Estate Professionals (realtor.org; November 15, 2012).  The voluntary guidelines state that the real estate agent’s exposure is generally “mitigated” because most real estate transactions involve financing and mortgages (which are regulated).   However, when encountering risk factors that fall outside the norm, NAR encourages due diligence and reporting of suspicious activity.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2016

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2016/08/05/money-laundering-and-real-estate/

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Home selling don’ts

When preparing for a home sale, the devil is in the detail.  You probably already know about the “do’s,” de-cluttering, curb-appeal, staging, and making necessary repairs.  But here are a few home selling “don’ts” that often trap home sellers into making mistakes:

Home selling is not about you. Don’t make a statement.  Now is not the time to be bold with renovations and staging; but rather stay focused on getting your home sold.  Stay away from trendy features, and bold designs.  Although bright and dramatic colors seem tempting, stick with neutral color schemes.  Besides making rooms feel awkward, making a statement with trendy fixtures and bold colors may turn off home buyers.  Bold style statements make home buyers fixate on the style, rather the space and potential of each room.

Home selling is not about being cheap. Don’t hire a contractor because they are the cheapest.  When it comes to home repair, the idiom “you get what you pay for” typically holds true.  Home buyers have a discerning eye and can spot poor workmanship.  Don’t be tempted to hire the unlicensed handyman to save a few dollars either; you and the future buyers won’t have recourse if there is a problem with the repair.  Don’t also be talked into a cheap renovation that is meant to appear as a luxury amenity.  Poor workmanship, sloppy installation, and/or inferior materials will turn away many home buyers.

Home selling is not about being amateur. Don’t assume all house painters are alike.  A good paint job can make a room look terrific and create positive emotions; while a poor paint job makes a room appear shabby and unstylish.  And even though you may be tempted to save a few dollars, don’t paint your home on your own – hire a professional.  The amateur paint job appears sloppy and has the telltale uneven edges, painted over light switches and receptacle covers, and painted shut windows.

Home selling is not about guessing. Don’t assume your prepping will bring you a big return on your investment.  If you deferred regular maintenance, you may have to make repairs regardless of the return.  Likewise, if your home is outdated, you may consider making some updates to lure home buyers.  Before getting in too deep on a prepping project, have a budget in mind and do a cost benefit analysis.

Consider checking out this year’s Remodeling Magazine’s Cost vs. Value Report (costvsvalue.com) to find out what updates and renovations make sense and which ones can bring you the biggest returns.  Although most renovations won’t bring you a dollar-for-dollar return, they may add to the overall aesthetic and make your home more appealing.  However, some renovations may not only lose money but can also blemish your otherwise beautiful home.  For example, adding a backup generator may seem as if it is a much needed amenity, however, the report indicated that for the Washington DC region, you would only recoup about 57.5% of the cost.  And it is possible that the home buyer will remove it because of it was poorly installed and too noisy.

The purpose of preparing your home before a sale is to not only to compel home buyers to make a top-dollar offer on your home, but to also get it sold quickly.  Consider planning out how you will prepare your home. Do the research.  Don’t fall into the traps that ensnare many home sellers because it can cost you. You may not only have to correct poor workmanship, but your negotiated sale price may be lower than expected.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2016

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.