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October 7, 2019November 23, 2021

Housing Finance Reform Time

Earlier this year, President Trump released a memorandum indicating the need to reform the current structure of housing finance. Although some believe this initiative is a distraction, the reality is that housing finance reform has been in the government sights for years. In fact, the current state of mortgage markets was only meant to be a temporary fix after the financial crisis of 2007.

Housing finance reform has been a popular political subject for years. Even before the financial crisis that resulted in the Great Recession, housing finance reform was front and center as a means to increase homeownership. However, it wasn’t until after the financial crisis that touched off in late 2007 that Congress saw the need to make immediate major reforms to the mortgage industry. Although a strategy was mapped out, not everyone agreed on the plan.

One of the first steps taken by Congress was passing the bipartisan Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA). The purpose of HERA was to be a comprehensive attempt addressing the identified problems and concerns (at that time) that caused the financial crisis. HERA created the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to provide oversight of the Government Sponsored Entities (GSE). Among the goals set by HERA was to “modernize” FHA and reduce Fannie and Freddie’s role in mortgage markets. The fate of Fannie and Freddie has been debated ever since.

The subsequent government takeover of Fannie and Freddie all but froze out any private participation in the mortgage markets. A 2010 CBO report indicated that 90 percent of all mortgages were owned by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. Some estimate government’s involvement has been much higher when including FHA and VA loans.

Fast forward to March 27^th 2019, when President Trump issued a memorandum on the urgency of housing finance reform. Although the memorandum provides a rationale to change the system, the timing couldn’t be any more ideal (to help a seemingly plateaued housing market). The President’s push for reform acknowledges the dominant role of the GSE in mortgage markets without much competition from the private sector. The plan is to reduce taxpayer risk by expanding the private sector’s role. Furthermore, the goal is to “modernize government housing programs, and make sustainable home ownership for American families [our] benchmark of success.”

On September 5^th, the Treasury Department submitted its plan on housing finance reform. The pan, as described by a Treasury press release (Treasury Department Submits Housing Reform Plan to President; treasury.gov) “includes nearly 50 recommended legislative and administrative reforms to define a limited role for the Federal Government in the housing finance system, enhance taxpayer protections against future bailouts, and promote competition in the housing finance system.”

Although the result of HERA was a government monopolized housing finance industry, it was not the intention. Housing finance reform means returning to a competitive market that includes the private sector. However, it does not imply the end to government participation. Prior to the financial crisis, the competitive mortgage industry helped a record number of home buyers achieve homeownership. Reforming housing finance markets is key in returning to a stable and reliable housing market across all sectors and price points. Housing finance reform will increase homeownership opportunities for those who have struggled with the prospect of buying a home. And of course, home sellers will benefit from increasing numbers of home buyers entering the housing market.

Original article is located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/10/07/housing-finance-reform-time/

By Dan Krell
Copyright© 2019

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

August 27, 2019August 27, 2019

Stock Corrections and Housing

Each time the stock market plunges there’s speculation about a wide spread economic contagion. Talking heads and news headlines predict doom and gloom, as well as speculating about the effects on the housing market. Because Wall Street reacts to all types of news and events, the effect of a stock crash on the housing market can vary. But are stock corrections and housing slumps connected?

If you want to see direct effects of stock corrections and housing slumps, you need only look at the stock market corrections in 2015 and 2018. Both stock market shocks were reactions to events in the US and globally. The extended stock sell-off during 2015 was a reaction to China’s currency devaluation as a result of their low GDP as well as poor economic data that came from the EU. The steep equities decline that happened during August through September of that year was bad timing for the housing market, as it occurred when the fall market was gearing up. Consumer confidence dropped and home buyers were concerned about home values. As a result, home sales slowed during the fall of 2015.

Moving forward, February 2018 is one of the most volatile trading months in recent history. That month saw two of the largest daily losses of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (both over 1,000 points). The market correction was due to Fed rate increases and concerns of inflation. The stock market correction occurred before spring home buyers were out in full force, so the short-lived event had minimal effect on home sales. Although home prices continued to post gains, existing home sales declined the second half of the year after an active spring and summer.

Are stock corrections and housing slumps connected?

This month’s stock market one-day plunge was likely tied to tariffs, trade and currency wars. The large decline occurred after China devalued its currency so as to make its consumer goods cheaper in the face of increasing tariffs.

Regardless of the impact of equities, it’s important to point out that home sales have been inconsistent throughout the year. A July 23^rd NAR press release indicated that existing home sales are 2.2 percent lower than last year. Chief NAR economist Lawrence Yun stated, “Home sales are running at a pace similar to 2015 levels – even with exceptionally low mortgage rates, a record number of jobs and a record high net worth in the country…” Although it may feel like we are repeating the housing cycle of 2015, it’s for different reasons. Like then, home sale inventory is low and home buyers are anxious about increasing home sale prices. However, differences include low mortgage rates, high consumer sentiment, and a stronger economy.

Although the overall effects of current stock volatility on the housing market may be minimal, equities corrections are typically harsher on upper bracket and luxury homes. Demand for starter homes will remain high, while upper tier homes will have to adjust pricing. Yun stated “Imbalance persists for mid-to-lower priced homes with solid demand and insufficient supply, which is consequently pushing up home prices…”

Although stocks rebounded the next day, we really don’t know yet if this is the beginnings of stock correction or a one-day event, so there is no way to gauge an immediate effect on home buyers. However, A July 17^th NAR report indicated that foreign home buyers have been affected by a slowing global economy and low US home sale inventory. The NAR Profile of International Transactions in U.S. Residential Real Estate 2019 indicated a 36 percent decline of foreign investment in U.S. residential real estate from last year. It’s likely that foreign investment may further erode as a currency war develops.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/08/27/stock-corrections-and-housing/

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July 21, 2019July 21, 2019

Housing Inventory Shortage Causes

A common complaint from home buyers is that there is lack of quality homes for sale. A fact that most overlook is that home sale inventory has been relatively low since 2011. The shortage has been attributed to many things including, home prices, economy, mortgage interest rates, jobs, etc. However, a Freddie Mac report issued earlier this year pinpoints a major cause of the ongoing inventory shortage. And according to the report, the housing shortage may get worse before it gets better.

A post-recession housing inventory shortage was actually predicted in 2010 by Brian Wesbury, chief economist for First Trust Advisers (Housing Shortage Coming In 2011; Forbes.com; February 15, 2010). Wesbury’s industry startling prediction was based on statistics that require an average of 1.5 million homes to be added to the housing inventory each year just to be on par with population growth. At that time, housing starts and completions were only a fraction of the 1.5 million target.

Since then, housing market inventory has been low relative to the housing market prior to the great recession. A lack of inventory has been attributed for inconsistent home sale stats this year, as well as previous years. And although there have been a few years of post-recession record home sales, home sales have struggled for ten years to surpass pre-recession numbers.

A study by Freddie Mac discusses one of the major causes of the recent housing shortage that has been impeding the real estate market, which is the growing trend of “aging in place.” The study, published by Freddie Mac Insights earlier this year (While Seniors Age in Place, Millennials Wait Longer and May Pay More for their First Homes; freddiemac.com; February 6, 2019), is fueling an ongoing debate of the current housing inventory shortage.

Aging in place is term given to aging home owners who stay on their homes as long as possible. Rather than moving to retirement communities or other stereotypical older adult housing, seniors are staying put. This trend is confirmed by a survey conducted by AARP that indicated “3 out of 4 adults age 50 and older want to stay in their homes and communities as they age” (2018 Home and Community Preferences: A National Survey of Adults Age 18-Plus; aarp.org; August 2018).

To highlight the impact of the current trend of aging in place, the Freddie Mac report pointed out that the home ownership rate for seniors aged 67 to 85 only dropped 3.6 percent, while the previous generation experienced a 11.6 percent drop in homeownership for the same age span. A major revelation was that the current homeownership rate for seniors aged 81 to 85 is almost 15 times greater than the previous generation (for the same age span).

The Freddie Mac study looked at subdued millennial home buying trends and looked at who lived in the homes that millennials could have purchased. The results indicated that seniors born after 1931 stayed in their homes longer, which resulted in higher homeownership rates compared to previous generations. According to the study, “We estimate that this trend accounts for about 1.6 million houses held back from the market through 2018, representing about one year’s typical supply of new construction, or more than half of the current shortfall of 2.5 million housing units…This additional demand for homeownership from seniors will increase the relative price of owning versus renting, making renting more attractive to younger generations…”

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/07/21/housing-inventory-shortage-causes/

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June 8, 2019June 8, 2019

Great time to buy a home

If you’ve been waiting to buy a home, now may be your time to jump into the market. Maybe you’ve been wary of home prices, or concerned about mortgage rates. Maybe you’ve been attempting to “time the market” to get a good deal on a home. Regardless of your reason for waiting to buy a home, you shouldn’t ignore the current market conditions. It’s as if a perfect storm of home buying conditions is lining up to a great time to buy a home.

The big news is that mortgage interest rates continue to drop. National average mortgage rates have been declining since the fall, moving closer to the historic bottom! The May 30^th U.S. weekly average for a thirty-year fixed rate mortgage provided by the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey(freddiemac.com) dropped to 3.99 percent. Mortgage News Daily’s Matthew Graham reported on June 3^rd that mortgage rates dropped further (mortgagenewsdaily.com). Graham’s title “Mortgage Rates Continue to Plummet” is telling.

Although economists express confidence in the economy, they attribute the movement in mortgage interest rates to the current trade wars and bond market activity. The mortgage industry may also be anticipating a Fed rate cut at the next week’s meeting of the Open Market Committee.

Lower mortgage rates aren’t always a reason to take the plunge into the housing market. But what about moderating home sale prices? The FHFA Home Price Index (fhfa.gov) indicates that nationwide average home prices increased only 1.1 percent during the first quarter of 2019! Compared to the year-over-year 5.1 percent HPI increase, the modest first quarter gain may indicate a more affordable housing market. Locally, the Montgomery County year-over-year average home sale price only increased 0.2 percent, according to MarketStats by ShowingTime (getsmartcharts.com). However, the average price per square foot decreased 14.3 percent!

Another factor making it a great time buy a home is the lackluster spring home sales. Counter to what is expected, home sales have somewhat cooled during the spring. A May 30^th NAR press release titled “Pending Home Sales Trail Off 1.5% in April” indicates that national home sales have been declining. In fact, the forward-looking indicator based on contract signings dropped 1.5 percent this past month. The total pending home sales in Montgomery County dropped about 2.8 percent compared to last spring.

There are increasingly more housing choices. Although housing supply remains tight, there were about 2.5 percent more new listings this April compared to the same time last year. Although many of these new listings go quickly, increasing new listings mean that there are more home sellers that are entering the market this year giving you more homes to consider.

Putting all the data points together signify a great time to buy a home. Housing affordability has increased, partly due in part by increasing family incomes, lower mortgage rates, and moderating home prices. Home sellers who are listing their homes for sale this spring are adjusting their sale price expectations. Homes that have been on the market for an extended time may be an opportunity for you to negotiate a lower sale price. According to mortgage experts, average mortgage rates have “plummeted,” giving you more flexibility and possibly lower housing costs.

These home buying conditions may not last very long. But before you decide to buy, determine if buying a home is the right choice by consulting a Realtor and other financial professionals.

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/06/08/great-time-to-buy-a-home/

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019

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May 20, 2019June 3, 2020

Mixed housing stats

This week’s National Association of Realtors press release (nar.realtor) sends mixed signals about the housing market. Reports of sluggish home sales and slowing home price appreciation is not what you would expect when the spring market should be humming along. But then again, mixed housing stats may be a vital sign of a healthy market in motion.

First, let’s talk about home sale prices. The NAR’s report on metro home prices and affordability indicate that the average home sale price for the first quarter of the year was $254,800. This is a 3.9 percent increase compared to the same time last year. Average home sale prices in the Baltimore metro area were slightly higher than the rest of nation at $275,300. Not surprisingly, Washington metro prices were significantly higher at $420,000 (a 6.5 increase from the same time last year).

The latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (spindices.com) is almost spot on with the NAR, indicating a 4 percent increase in home sale prices nationwide.

Affordability is always a concern when mixed housing stats confound the market. So, how much income do you need to qualify for a home? The National Association of Realtors Qualifying Income report indicates the average qualifying income for a 5 percent down conventional mortgage is $60,143 nationwide. The average qualifying income in the Baltimore metro area is slightly higher at $64,982. However, because of significantly higher home sale prices, the average qualifying income in the Washington metro area is $99,137.

The neighboring Baltimore and Washington metro areas highlight home pricing extremes in competing markets. Many home buyers who work in the Washington metro area are opting for longer commutes to make homeownership affordable. Others are opting for alternative work to not only lower their housing cost, but eliminate the commute as well. Commenting on affordability, NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun stated, “There are vast home price differences among metro markets. The condition of extremely high home prices may not be sustainable in light of many alternative metro markets that are much more affordable. Therefore, a shift in job search and residential relocations into more affordable regions of the country is likely in the future.”

Although home sale prices continue to climb, the national home sale picture is another story. The 1.2 percent increase in spring home sales compared to winter sales should be expected. However, the 5.4 percent decrease from last spring is a disappointment. According to MarketStats by ShowingTime (getsmartcharts.com), the number of homes sold in the Mid-Atlantic region decreased 4.77 percent year-to-date. There was a larger decline in Montgomery County, where there was a 7.25 percent decrease in home sales year-to-date!

Days-on-market is another fundamental indicator of the housing market. And, like home prices and units sold, days-on-market can vary depending on the local market. Homes in the Mid-Atlantic region are taking a bit longer to sell, as days-on-market increased 7.04 percent to 76 days. However, houses in Montgomery County are selling quicker, where days-on-market decreased about 13 percent to 65 days.

Mixed housing stats can confound home buyers, sellers, and their agents. But consider the analysis of David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. He stated that that home sale prices gains have been slowing down until recently. And although mortgage rates are lower, home sales have “drifted down” from their peak during February 2018. Even new home sales and residential investment have shown weakness since last year.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/05/20/mixed-housing-stats/

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019

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