New real estate economics

A new economic paradigm for housing markets. The new real estate economics are about recovery trends and bubble fears.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors®, stated in a November 8th news release, “…existing-home sales have shown a 20 percent cumulative increase over the past two years, while prices have gained 18 percent, but incomes have risen only 2 to 4 percent in the same timeframe.” Additionally, it is expected that existing home sales to maintain 2013 gains through 2014; and home prices to continue and upward trend (realtor.org).

The 2014 prediction for U.S. housing sounds great. But does this mean we are expecting increased multiple offer situations with further plummeting of average days on market? In a post housing bubble world, some wonder if this year’s real estate activity is sustainable – maybe it was no coincidence that some descriptions of hot housing markets sounded like the go-go market that occurred during the housing bubble years. And yet with hindsight, should we be concerned about “priming the pumps” for another housing bubble?

Sentiment about over-valued markets around the world was expressed by none other than Robert Shiller. Shiller, of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences this year for the “empirical analysis of asset prices.” And if Robert Shiller is talking about over-valued markets, maybe we should listen.

Shiller’s book, “Irrational Exuberance” is said to have made the argument for the dot-come (2000 edition) and housing (2005 edition) bubbles, as well as predicting the subsequent market crashes. (Interestingly, the book title is said to be taken from an Allan Greenspan speech described the rapid cycling stock market activity of the mid 1990’s.)

Two weeks after Janet Yellen’s confirmation hearings to become Chairperson of the Fed, Robert Shiller was interviewed by the German magazine Der Spiegel. Yellen’s responses to Senators during the hearing suggested that there were no bubbles in equities and housing, although she conceded that bubbles are hard to predict; while Shiller expressed concern about over-valued equities in many markets throughout the world, as well as a sharp rise in home prices in some global real estate markets (including some U.S. real estate markets such as Las Vegas). Shiller made specific mention of the U.S. Stock market saying that data is suggesting an equities bubble. However, as he cautioned that it might be too early to sound the alarm, there is an expectation that the market will go even higher.

Is this the new real estate economics?

Are bubbles such a bad thing? Economist Matthew Klein (Is the Only Choice Bubbles or Recession?; Bloomberg; Nov 19, 2013) speculates that bubbles may actually be an important part of a modern economic cycle that allows for growth in various sectors. He states “…bubbles can transform wealth that would otherwise be stashed in government bonds and other safe assets into income for those who work in the expanding parts of the economy.” However, many economists assert that eroding wealth and savings to artificially grow an economy is dangerous and unsustainable.

How will real estate economics play out? Getting back to the NAR press release, Yun credited the current sales and price trends to a lack of housing inventory and buyer demand. Unfortunately, housing inventory is at about a thirteen year low; and unless inventory increases we can expect an interesting year ahead.

by Dan Krell
© 2013

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

June 13, 2013November 23, 2021

The decline of today’s housing stock

by Dan Krell © 2013
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Is the decline of today’s housing stock a concern or an opportunity?

While taking part in a recent home inspection, the home inspector unexpectedly began to talk about the concern for today’s housing stock. After listening intently for a short time, I realized that his dissertation about the quality of existing homes was not just his opinion or home inspectors as a group, but rather a consensus of growing concern among housing experts of the condition of many older homes.

The issue that the home inspector pointed out is that much of the existing housing stock is aging without significant necessary maintenance or repair. Because the lifespan of many of home systems (including roofs and HVAC) range from 15 years to 30 years, as well as structural materials can have an average lifespan of 40 years; he surmised that homes that exceed thirty years of age are at significant risk.

As a home inspector, this gentleman has a unique perspective about how people take care of their homes; and unfortunately, many home owners have put off important and necessary maintenance and/or system replacements such that the home’s condition is considerably affected. And although he didn’t attribute the deteriorating housing stock with the recent recession, it is assumed that the recession contributed to the housing stock’s declining quality – if not accelerated it.

A February 2013 article by Kermit Baker for the Harvard Joint Center of Housing Studies entitled “The Return of Substandard Housing” highlighted the relative considerable reduction in maintenance spending by home owners during the Great Recession. He stated that “improvement spending” decreased 28% between 2007 and 2011, which essentially “erased” such spending during the housing boom (housingperspectives.blogspot.com).

Mr. Baker concluded that this crisis needs attention, stating; “The longer-term fate of the current slightly larger number of inadequate homes is unknown. Many of these homes likely will be renovated to provide affordable housing opportunities. However, many may not recover without extra help. Given the extraordinary circumstances that many homes have gone through in recent years, particularly foreclosed homes that often were vacant and undermaintained for extended periods of time as they worked their way through the foreclosure process, they may be more at risk than their inadequate predecessors…

Considering the number of re-sale contracts that are falling out because of home inspections, this all makes sense. New home sales aside, many home buyers want “turn-key” homes that are updated with relatively new systems. It seems as if that home buyers don’t want to be burdened with major maintenance costs for the first five years of ownership. Some of the costly considerations that can put off home buyers are replacing a roof, windows, siding, and/or HVAC. Additionally, hazardous materials that can be commonly found in older homes (such as asbestos and lead paint) are becoming an increasing concern with first time home buyers.

The reason is uncertain, but during the “go-go” market of 2004-2006, a home’s condition didn’t seem to be as much of a concern for home buyers as it is today. However, one reason may be that during that period home equity loans were relatively easier to obtain to finance renovation projects.

The result of the deteriorating quality of the existing home stock may be that we may see declining values in homes requiring the most attention; such homes may either be renovated by home buyers, or might be razed to make way for a new home.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published the week of June 10, 2013 (Montgomery County Sentinel). Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

May 1, 2013June 29, 2019

Hybrid housing market not for the squeamish

A “hybrid” housing market is has a little bit of everything. There are the multiple offers and escalation clauses, as well as the homes that sit idle for days (both could be on the very same block!); buyers willing to pay more than list and those offering less. The result is frustration among buyers and sellers who are disappointed by not having their expectations met; and even a few real estate agents are losing their cool. What is becoming increasingly apparent is that the current housing market is not for the squeamish!

Although few home owners are venturing to list their homes, those who do may be seeking a premium price; most likely due to the optimism permeating the air. Furthermore some are expecting the prize of getting multiple offers with escalation clauses. Owners of homes that do not sell within the first week of listing are anxiously wondering, “Why hasn’t my house sold yet?”

The flip side is that although home buyers are plentiful (compared to the current home inventory), there still seems to be many home buyers who seek to buy a home at a 5%+ discount. Unlike the “bargain hunter,” many of these home buyers are more concerned with future home resale (which may be indicative of a lack of confidence in the future housing market).

Pressure on home buyers and sellers is likely originating from reports of bubble activity pockets that seems to be popping up, and recent home price indices that indicate increasing national average home prices. Regardless, there appears to be a lack of symmetry among home sales as well as a lack of consistency among home buyers and sellers.

So if you’re planning a home sale or purchase, what are you to make of this? You should understand that national home price indices are comprised of multiple regions, and much of the national home price increase is due to regions that had the highest home price declines over the last six years, as well as a few pockets of very hot activity (unlike the home price climb during 2004-2006, which was mostly due to high confidence in the housing market, easy credit, and a much different economy). Likewise, the Metro DC region is microcosm of the national picture, such that it is comprised of a number of counties that realized double digit home price decreases, as well as a few pockets of hot activity.

To add some perspective to local market trends, the average days-on-market of a home in Montgomery County is roughly 60 days (depending on the source). Additionally, Montgomery County single family home data compiled by the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors® (gcaar.com) indicated that median and average single family home price decreased year over year for the last three consecutive months. And while the number of homes listed continues to decline, the number of pending home sales (homes under contract) has also declined in March year over year, as well as year to date.

Getting into the market requires solid data, a strategy, and an open mind. If you’re selling: consult with your agent about recent neighborhood prices; and stay informed of all activity, as it could be your cue to decisions made on the sale. If you’re buying: in addition to discussing comp data, you should consult with your agent about a strategy to deal with competition from other home buyers.

By Copyright
© 2013

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

May 31, 2012

Skepticism increases 1.3% on conflicting housing data

by Dan Krell © 2012
DanKrell.com

When the National Association of Realtors® announced last week that April’s existing home sales increased 3.4% to an annually adjusted rate of 4.62 million compared to a downwardly revised 4.47 million in March (http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2012/05/april-existing-home-sales-up-prices-rise-again), I have to admit I was a bit skeptical. The local market is not exactly humming along, so as I read in the above referenced NAR release that April’s existing home sales rose 10% over the figure from April 2011, I thought some perspective is needed.

Let me quote you some housing statistics. The number of Montgomery County single family homes that sold increased 5.1% in February, 14.7% in March, 33.9% in April and 27.9% in May (MRIS data reported by the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors®; gcaar.com). These numbers are not from 2012; but rather, these are the local stats from 2010 compared to closings from 2009. Yes, as you remember – 2010 was a spectacular year for local real estate!

Sarcasm aside, the number of Montgomery County single family home closings increased 5.8% during April 2012 (compared to 2011); and the number of Montgomery County condo closings also increased 8.1% during the same time. But, Montgomery County year-to-date settlements are still below the number of settlements that occurred during the same time in 2011 (-1.4% for single family homes; and -2.8% for condos). Although the 690 single family home settlements that occurred in April 2012 is higher than 652 that occurred in April 2011, the 2,034 single family home settlements that occurred year-to-date through April 2012 is lower than the 2,062 settlements that occurred the same period in 2011. Regardless, the number of settlements is far lower than what we have seen in past “normal” markets (for example, GCAAR reported that there were 849 settlements of Montgomery County single family homes in April 2001).

It must be noted that although the first half of 2010 seemed to be on a role, the number of 2010 Montgomery County single family home closings actually ended the year slightly lower than 2009. So, even though we have a month of some positive news, let’s be cautious about making assumptions.

Ok, I know you’re going to ask about NAR’s statements about rising home sales. Sure, NAR chief economist, Lawrence Yun, was reported to say that “the housing recovery was underway.” He was also quoted to say, “A return of normal home buying for occupancy is helping home sales across all price points, and now the recovery appears to be extending to home prices…”

However, the latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (May 29th; standardandpoors.com) states “that all three headline composites ended the first quarter of 2012 at new post-crisis lows.” Although there was a 1.6% decrease in home prices in the Washington DC metropolitan area in February compared to January, there was a 1% increase in March compared to February; however, prices have decreased 0.6% for the year.

Although media headlines shout that housing has turned a corner, it’s a little premature to assume that the housing market has normalized with only one month’s data. The housing market has turned so many corners in recent years that I think we’ve made several circles! Just as in 2010, let’s see the final tally. There’s still some data to collect; let’s see how the housing market fares through the remainder of the summer.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of May 28, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

August 11, 2011July 28, 2019

Financial Crisis Déjà-vu

Although it may feel as if you’re experiencing one, no – you’re not having a déjà-vu. Wall Street and other world markets are once again in crisis mode. However, unlike the crisis of 2008 that was caused by a credit crunch; this week’s crisis is characterized as a debt crisis.

Sure, crises shock the public and economic systems. And much like other crises, we are stunned, worried and confused. However, this crisis is a bit different. Although the imminent effects are yet to be seen, this crisis has been openly brewing for months; and the public has been primed leading up to the debt debate and subsequent debt deal that seemed to satisfy no one – especially Standard & Poor’s. As you already know, S&P downgraded the credit of the United States of America on August 5th (You can read the downgrade report along with the rationale on standardandpoors.com).

As a home owner, you might think that home values are once again in peril. However, a sharp decline in home prices that was characteristic of the housing downturn from 2007 to 2009 is unlikely. In retrospect, the housing bubble lost its turgidity and home values started to erode before the credit crunch of 2008 (one could argue that the credit crunch was caused by the foreclosure crisis). Unlike today’s housing market, the market downturn in 2007 and home prices were mostly affected by the tsunami of distressed properties that swelled the active inventory for over three years. As inventory decreased, home prices seemed to rebound indicating the beginnings of a very modest housing recovery.

Although nationwide home prices may continue to roller coaster until economic stability is achieved; a hyper-local analysis may indicate that neighborhood home values will vary.

As financial markets “correct” themselves, consumer sentiment of home ownership may not be initially or directly affected by the current crisis. It is more likely that most home buyers may initially continue their home search unabated. Home sellers, on the other hand, are more apt to pull their homes from the market if indications are of a slowdown.

Of course there will be consequences. Intuitively, one might have expected mortgage interest rates to increase on the heels of a U.S. credit downgrade. However, at least initially, interest rates decreased. The rationale is that although the U.S. credit was downgraded, investors looking for a “safe haven” for their money view world markets in turmoil; there is fear of a worldwide recession as Europe is dealing with an ongoing debt crisis, while China is coping with inflation and their version of a real estate bubble. Notwithstanding, the long term effects on mortgage interest rates remain to be seen.

Additionally, the short term evaporation of savings and capital in the financial markets can affect the ability of home buyers’ down payments; savings are the most common source of downpayment as indicated by the National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers 2010 (realtor.org). The end result may be a bifurcated housing market, evident by the financial disparity of home buyers. Home buyers who are financially better off will have cash for their downpayment as well as be able to afford the potential higher interest rate mortgage.

As we move forward, uncertainty is felt about the immediate effects of a combined global crisis and/or possible recession. However, like all crises – this too shall pass in time.

by Dan Krell
© 2011

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

by Dan Krell © 2013 Google+ DanKrell.com

Is the decline of today’s housing stock a concern or an opportunity?

by Dan Krell © 2013
Google+
DanKrell.com